Business Transformation by Futures Thinking, Kiev 2019, Creascope conference
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This document discusses how to handle challenges in times of rapid change and uncertainty (VUCA times). It outlines many trends and forces shaping the future, such as artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the sharing economy. It notes that about half of current jobs may disappear in the next 20 years as new jobs emerge. It advocates using service design thinking and an iterative process to understand problems and develop solutions. It also emphasizes the need to consider multiple possible futures rather than just extrapolating trends, as the future is unpredictable. It provides examples of imagining different futures for a mannequin producer, city, and bank. The goal is to help organizations and individuals better cope with and take advantage of changes in today's VUCA world
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Business Transformation by Futures Thinking, Kiev 2019, Creascope conference
- 1. Rafał Kołodziej 10/04/2019 How to handle the challenges of the VUCA TIMES and change the status quo. CEO GREENHAT INNOVATION
- 3. There is nothing sure in the world but the change.
- 4. VUCA Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity
- 5. Co-Botisation / 3D Printing / Industry 4.0 / Artificial Intelligence / Intelligence of Things / Crypto-currencies / Bots / Dematerialisation / Circular Economy / Open Innovation / Augmented Reality / Virtual Reality / Uberization /
- 7. Business-wise: one third of today's companies will disappear from the market over the next 5 years.
- 8. https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/ 47% of today’s jobs will disappear in the next 25 years. Half of the new ones will emerge that do not exist today. https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/opinion/view/404
- 10. Prawie połowa zawodów, które dzisiaj istnieją zniknie w ciągu najbliższych 20 lat. Pojawi się też drugie tyle nowych, których dzisiaj nie ma. Jakie kompetencje będą potrzebne? https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/
- 11. The world of solving a problem is over. Analysis, speed of action & mitigating risk is not enough anymore.
- 12. Welcome to the world of DILEMMAS that require paHence, sense of meaning and constant confrontaHon with uncertainty.
- 13. DILEMMAS are complex, unclear, enigmatic and misleading. It’s not only unclear where to go, but even where to start.
- 14. TOP 10 SKILLS
- 15. We need not only a different approach, but also a new process and tools to work with change.
- 16. Service design thinking is an iterative process. The SquiggleService Design Thinking Buzzword Bingo Service Design Thinking Service Design Tools
- 17. Service design thinking is an iterative process. The SquiggleService Design Thinking Buzzword Bingo Service Design Thinking Service Design Tools
- 18. Service design thinking is an iterative process. The SquiggleService Design Thinking Buzzword Bingo Service Design Thinking Service Design Tools Servicedesignthinkingisaniterativeprocess. TheSquiggle ServiceDesignThinking BuzzwordBingoServiceDesignThinkingServiceDesignTools
- 19. Service design thinking is an iterative process. Buzzword Bingo Service Design Thinking Service Design Tools Servicedesignthinkingisaniterativeprocess. BuzzwordBingoServiceDesignThinkingServiceDesignTools Let's ask our customers what solutions they expect!
- 20. EVERY INNOVATION IS CROSSING SUBSEQUENT PHASES INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY
- 21. MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IS NOT INTERESTED IN CHANGE AND CHOOSE A SOLUTION WHICH KNOWS. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY MOST OF US IS NOT INTERESTED IN ANY CHANGE
- 22. MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IS NOT INTERESTED IN CHANGE AND CHOOSE A SOLUTION WHICH KNOWS. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY PSYCHOLOGY WORKS AGAINST ANY CHANGE loss aversion
- 23. ’If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.’ H. Ford
- 24. Service design thinking is an iterative process. Buzzword Bingo Service Design Thinking Service Design Tools Servicedesignthinkingisaniterativeprocess. BuzzwordBingoServiceDesignThinkingServiceDesignTools Let's ask experts. They must know more and better!
- 25. ‘The phone is an unusual invention, but will anyone ever use it?’ Rutherford B. Hayes. Prezydent USA, 1875
- 26. ‘There is room for up to five computers on the global market’ Thomas Watson, Founder & CEO IBM, 1943
- 27. Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo CEO Nokia, 2007 ‘One billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?’
- 28. ABSTRACT CONCRETE INSIGHTS RESEARCH ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS STRATEGY UNDERSTAND immerse in the user world of a customer and his/her way of thinking BUILD human centered direction & set of actions enabling implementation CLASSIC WAY OF THINKING
- 29. „One cannot first understand the problem to solve it. One has to start solving to understand it.” Edwin Bendyk, Jerzy Hausner, Michał Kudłacz „MIASTO – IDEA. Nowe podejście do rozwoju miast”.
- 30. We also remember that innovation is created by people who are constantly involved in the process. WE CREATE INNOVATION IN AN ITERATIVE PROCESS WITH CUSTOMER THAT HELPS US UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM
- 32. ABSTRACT CONCRETE INSIGHTS RESEARCH ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS TERRA MAGICA? STRATEGY UNDERSTAND immerse in the user world of a customer and his/her way of thinking BUILD human centered direction & set of actions enabling implementation CLASSIC WAY OF THINKING
- 33. ABSTRACT CONCRETE INSIGHTS RESEARCH ANALYSIS SOLUTIONS TERRA MAGICA? STRATEGY TRANSFORM convert data and knowledge into possible futures and values for customer TRENDS FUTURES LEVERS UNDERSTAND immerse in the user world of a customer and his/her way of thinking BUILD human centered direction & set of actions enabling implementation TRANSFORMATIONAL WAY OF THINKING
- 34. VOLATILITY UNCERTAINTY COMPLEXITY AMBIGUITY VISION UNDERSTANDING CLARITY AGILITY VUCA
- 37. „Przyszłość już się wydarzyła, tylko nie została równomiernie dystrybuowana.” W. Gibson „The future has already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” W. Gibson
- 38. TRENDS INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY SIGNALS OF CHANGE LOOK FOR THE FUTURE AT THE FAR HORIZON
- 39. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY REMEMBER: THE FUTURE OF YOUR INDUSTRY IS USUALLY ELSWHERE
- 40. Customers don’t compare your solution with your competitors but… with his best solution ever experienced.
- 41. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% SIGNALS OF CHANGE Zuzanna Skalska GATHER WEAK SIGNALS OF CHANGE
- 42. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% Zuzanna Skalska TRENDS USE BOUNDLES PREPARED BY EXPERTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT’S NEXT
- 43. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% 34% 34% 16% LAGGARDS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY BE AWARE THAT NOT EVERYTHING WILL CROSS THE CHASM THE CHASM
- 44. PLAIN TREND EXTRAPOLATION CONSTITUTE PROBABLE FUTURE preferable probable today ,me
- 45. preferable probable today time BUT THE WORLD IS MUCH MORE UNPREDICTABLE THAN WE EXPECT
- 46. preferable probable plausible possible today /me POSSIBLE FUTURE IS MUCH WIDER THAN PROBABLE ONE
- 47. preferable probable plausible possible scenarios „black swans” today time AND THERE IS ALWAYS MORE THAN ONE FUTURE FOR YOUR COMPANY
- 48. INNOVATORS 2,5% EARLY ADOPTERS 13,5% Zuzanna Skalska TRENDY TRENDS PROVIDE GREAT FOOD FOR THOUGHT OF THE FUTURES, BUT NOT A SOLUTION
- 49. HOW CAN WE COPE WITH THE UNPREDICTABLE? ABSTRACT CONCRETE TRANSFORM convert this way of thinking with bold statements, mind- stretching using trends and futures scenarios, create your scenario BRAINDUMP conduct ‘diagnosis via prognosis’ that reveals regarded futures in your company; identify deep believes and bets, that already exist BUILD transform your vision into actionable activities using backcasting methods
- 50. Kurt Vonnegut worked out the ending of a story and then thought thoroughly what should have happened earlier to bring it out.
- 51. „Every wicked problem is specific - unique. Knowledge and experience may be useful, but the solution must be creative and original to be effective.” Edwin Bendyk, Jerzy Hausner, Michał Kudłacz „MIASTO – IDEA. Nowe podejście do rozwoju miast”.
- 53. IMAGINE THE POLISH MANEKIN PRODUCER THAT IS SUFFERING FROM INFERIORITY COMPLEX AND FEELS SECOND CATEGORY EXAMPLE
- 57. IMAGINE THE CITY THAT PRAISE HISTORY OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND CARTOON MOVIES. EXAMPLE
- 58. Co-created city that leaves more time to live
- 59. IMAGINE BUSINESS LOGIC OF A BANK THAT PUTS EFFORT TO COMPETE WITH PRICE AND SPEED OF ACTION. EXAMPLE
- 60. We inspire our clients to make right financial decisions. We provide tools that make banking friendly and transparent. We are available anytime and anywhere. We're constantly improving.
- 61. We inspire our clients to make right financial decisions. We provide tools that make banking friendly and transparent. We are available anytime and anywhere. We're constantly improving.
- 62. DZISIAJ NOWE JUTRO TRENDY PROGNOZA SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ CO DALEJ? STRATEGIA MOŻLIWOŚCI KONKRET ABSTRAKT TODAY NEW TOMORROW OUR NEXT STRATEGY FUTURE 4 FUTURE 3 FUTURE 1 FUTURE 2POSSIBILITIES TRENDS FORECAST ABSTRACT CONCRETE FUTURES THINKING SCHEME
- 63. DZISIAJ NOWE JUTRO TRENDY PROGNOZA SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ SCENARIUSZ CO DALEJ? STRATEGIA MOŻLIWOŚCI KONKRET ABSTRAKT TODAY NEW TOMORROW OUR NEXT STRATEGY FUTURE 4 FUTURE 3 FUTURE 1 FUTURE 2POSSIBILITIES TRENDS FORECAST ABSTRACT CONCRETE FUTURES THINKING SCHEME THIS IS THE PLACE WHERE MAGIC HAPPENS
- 64. Have fun working with your futures J Rafał Kołodziej CEO M +48 600 305 158 E [email protected]