U.S. Higher Education System
Overview and Future Trends
Louis Soares
Vice President, Strategy, Research and Advancement
U.S. – China Higher Education Administration Forum
Georgetown University School of Continuing Studies
China’s Ministry of Education Delegation
June 13, 2017
Agenda
• ACE Introduction
• Size and Composition of U.S. Higher Education
– Governance
– Finance
– Curriculum and Degrees
– Faculty
– Administration
• Students
• Future Trends
ACE Mission
ACE, the major coordinating body for all of the nation’s higher
education institutions, provides leadership and a unifying
voice on higher education issues and influences public policy
through advocacy, research and program initiatives.
ACE Snapshot - Membership
1,658 Members
1,444 institutions and systems
214 associations, international
Guiding Principles
• Autonomy
• Competitive Markets
• Diversity of Institutions
• Equity and Social Mobility
Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions
and Enrollment: Fall 2015
Public
Private Not-
for-Profit
Private-for-
Profit
Total
Institutions 1,620 1,701 1,262 4,583
Four-year 710 1,594 700 3,004
Two-year 910 107 562 1,579
Enrollment 14,568,103 4,063,372 1,345,795 19,977,270
Four-year 8,352,437 4,013,323 1,120,582 13,486,342
Two-year 6,215,666 50,049 225,213 6,490,928
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Total Fall Enrollment in Degree-Granting
Postsecondary Institutions: 1970 - 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Total Fall Enrollment in Degree-Granting
Postsecondary Institutions,
by Institution Level: 1970 - 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total 4-year 2-year
Public Governance
Federal
Government
Accrediting
Organizations
State
Government
Multiple Revenue Sources
• Tuition and Fees Revenue from Students and Families
• State, Federal and Local
– Appropriations
– Grants
– Contracts
• Private Gifts
• Endowments
• Auxiliary Enterprises
US Education Pipeline
Total Degrees Awarded, by Degree Type: 2014-15
Degree Type Total Awarded
Certificates 961,167
Associate’s 1,013,971
Bachelor’s 1,894,934
Master’s 758,708
Doctoral 178,547
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred, by Top 10
Field of Study: 2014-15
Total 1,894,934
Business 363,799
Health professions and related programs 216,228
Social sciences and history 166,944
Psychology 117,557
Biological and biomedical sciences 109,896
Engineering 97,858
Visual and performing arts 95,832
Education 91,623
Communication, journalism, and related programs 90,650
Homeland security, law enforcement, and firefighting 62,723
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Master’s Degrees Conferred, by Top 10
Field of Study: 2014-15
Total 758,708
Business 185,222
Education 146,561
Health professions and related programs 102,897
Engineering 46,115
Public administration and social services 46,083
Computer and information sciences 31,474
Psychology 26,773
Social sciences and history 20,533
Visual and performing arts 17,756
Biological and biomedical sciences 14,650
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Doctoral Degrees Conferred, by Top 10
Field of Study: 2014-15
Total 178,547
Health professions and related programs 71,003
Legal professions and studies 40,329
Education 11,772
Engineering 10,239
Biological and biomedical sciences 8,053
Psychology 6,583
Physical sciences and science technologies 5,823
Social sciences and history 4,828
Business 3,116
Computer and information sciences 1,998
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
4.6
6.2
7.6
9.4
11.0
13.9
17.0
19.4
21.3
23.0
25.6
27.7
29.9
32.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1940 1950 1957 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed 4
Years of College or More
Total
Source: 1947,and 1952 to 2002 March Current Population Survey, 2003 to 2015 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey
(noninstitutionalized population, excluding members of the Armed Forces living in barracks); 1950 Census of Population and 1940 Census of Population (resident population).
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Detailed Educational Attainment of People 25 Years and Over: 2000 to
2015
High school diploma College, no degree Associate's Degree Bachelors
Master's Degree Professional degree Doctorate degree
Source: 2000 to 2002 March Current Population Survey, 2003 to 2015 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey (noninstitutionalized population, excluding members of the
Armed Forces living in barracks)
Pressures on Higher Education
State Funding Down
Tuition Revenue Increasing - Raising
Affordability Questions
•
QUALITY IN QUESTION
Study of 2,300 undergraduates
– 45 percent “demonstrated no significant
gains in critical thinking, analytical
reasoning, and written communications
during the first two years of college”
– 36 percent “demonstrated no significant
gains in critical thinking, analytical
reasoning, and written communications
during the first two years of college”
Change in Student Demographics
Balance Learning, Family and Work
Source: Lumina Foundation Analysis of NCES Data Sets
Wrestle with
Financial Issues on
their own
A growing number of
today’s students are
students of color.
Percentage increase in enrollment,
1996 - 2010
Source: Lumina Foundation Analysis of NCES Data Sets
Few of today’s
students study or live
full-time at flagship,
four-year campuses.
Students are Mobile
Today’s Students Less Likely to Complete
Pressures on Higher Education
More Students
Fewer are Traditional
More Diversity in Learning Needs
Quality in Question
Pressure for Accountability
Less Money
INNOVATION IS IN ORDER
Institutional
Models
Education
Partner
Networks
Technology
Tools
Policy/Standards
to facilitate
change
Framework for Postsecondary Innovation
Innovation Meta-Themes
Now Future
Learning Stocks Learning Flows
Data Poor Data Rich
Inputs Output
Less organized More (and Less) Organized
Academic v. Professional Prep Academic & Professional Prep
Institution view System view
Global Economy in A Snapshot
787 Dreamliner
5 States
9 Countries
6 Languages
14 Suppliers
Global Value Chains
Standards-based
Technology-Driven
Cross-disciplinary Teams
Learning is built into Work
Knowledge Stocks
• Proprietary
• Protect
• Extract Value
Knowledge Flows
• Networks of people/ideas
• Collaboration
• refresh
Learning Stocks to Learning Flows
Learning Flows Yields Adaptive Expertise
120 10,000
Well organized body of knowledge
Supports understanding foundational
concepts
Recognize patterns In the body of knowledge
Easy retrieval of relevant knowledge
Adaptive – metacognition allows transfer of
knowledge to other settings
BA: A Stock or A Flow?
40 classes
1 degree
120 credits
1600 hours
Source: Cracking the Credit Hour, New America Foundation,
Data Poor to Data Rich
Data Poor to Data Rich
National Study of Instructional
Costs and Productivity
Inputs
Outputs
College Scorecard
• Persistence Rate
• Graduation Rate
• Cohort Default Rate
• Cohort Repayment Rate
• Illustrates what students should be
expected to know and be able to
do once they earn their degrees.
• Proposes learning outcomes to
benchmark the associate,
bachelor’s & master’s degrees.
• Field Development in: 200
institutions, 30 states and six
disciplines
Five Dimensions of
Learning Outcomes
Academic/Professional Prep Integration
Academic & Professional Prep = $772B
Non-credit PSE
Est. # served 22
million
Credit PSE
Est. # served 21
million
Source: Georgetown Center on Education
and the Workforce,
Prior Learning Assessment
Credit-bearing Postsecondary
Education and training
Type
Credit-bearing Courses
Providers(accredited)
Public 2-year
Public 4-year
Private 2-year
Private non-profit 4-year
Private for-profit 4-year
Non-Credit Postsecondary
Education and training
Type
Employer Training
Apprenticeships
Public Workforce Training
Military
Volunteer Experiences
Providers
Business Community
Community-base organizations
Cross-sector partnerships
Community colleges
Armed Forces
Proprietary Firms
Online Providers of Content
Emerging Ecosystem
To Validate Non-credit Learning and Beyond
Louis Soares June 2012
New Learning Ecosystem
“COLLEGE”
Less Organized
Institutional
Form &
Governance
Instruction &
Pedagogy
CredentialsFinance
• Faculty
• Academic Committees
• Senior Administrators
• Board
• Hidden cross subsidy
• Separation from productivity
• Academic Committees
More organized
Institutional
Form &
Governance
Instruction &
Pedagogy
CredentialsFinance
Student Level
Learning Data
Evidence-based
Governance
Transparent and
Portable Learning
Outcomes
Transparent
Financials drive
performance
World Literature 101 Course Redesign
• Old delivery: 20 face-to-face lecture sections (about 60 students each)
• New delivery: 800-student online section organized around 4-week modules
• Technology enabler: web-enabled instruction and assessment/
• Staffing: program coordinator, 4 faculty, 4 grad students,
• Outcomes and Savings:
• student outcomes better,
• reduced costs by over 50 %,
• tripled number of student the faculty can handle
Upside Down Degrees
(And Less Organized - Unbundled)
Institutional
Form &
Governance
Instruction &
Pedagogy
CredentialsFinance
MIT Unveils
‘MicroMaster’s,’
Allowing Students to
Get Half Their Degree
From MOOCs
October 7, 2015 by Andy Thomason
Master of
Computer
Science
Micro-Credentials to Degrees
New Credentials - Overthrow BA Hegemony
Knowledge Worker Journeyman License
Adaptive Experts
T-Shaped Professionals
Occupational
Credential
Work
Experience
AP in English
language
and AP
Statistics
Reverse the Campus
November 4, 2012
A Dorm for All Colleges
Industry/Sector
Knowledge
Job/Occupational
Knowledge
General
Knowledge
Firm/Agency
Specific
Knowledge
21st Knowledge for Individual/Business Success
Industry/Professional
Knowledge
General
Knowledge
Firm/Agency
Knowledge
Job/Occupational
Knowledge
Employer Sponsored Training.
Union-Employer Sponsored
Training,
Proprietary School Job Training,
On-the-job Training, and
Work/Life Experience
20th Century Postsecondary Education
Graduate/Professional
Schools
Strong Link Weak Link
4-Year Colleges and
Universities
BS/BA Degrees
Community College
AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees
Community College
AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees
Community College
Vocational/Technical
Certificates and AAS Degrees
Industry/Professional
Knowledge
General
Knowledge
Firm/Agency
Knowledge
Job/Occupational
Knowledge
Toward a 21st Century
Structure
Graduate/Professional
Schools
Strong Link Weak Link
4-Year Colleges and
Universities
BS/BA Degrees
Community College
AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees
Community College
Vocational/Technical
Certificates and AAS Degrees
Employer Sponsored Training,
Union-Employer Sponsored
Training,
Proprietary School Job Training,
On-the-job Training, and
Work/Life Experience
21st Century Higher Education
System Characteristics
• Learner Centered
• Technology Enabled (learning and management)
• Faculty guided and curated
• Intentionally geared to career and life success
• Provide stackable recognized credentials
• Incorporate non-collegiate e.g. apprenticeship
• Eliminate “transfer tax”
• Different “models” for different institutional missions
Thanks

China delegation 06.12.17 v1

  • 1.
    U.S. Higher EducationSystem Overview and Future Trends Louis Soares Vice President, Strategy, Research and Advancement U.S. – China Higher Education Administration Forum Georgetown University School of Continuing Studies China’s Ministry of Education Delegation June 13, 2017
  • 2.
    Agenda • ACE Introduction •Size and Composition of U.S. Higher Education – Governance – Finance – Curriculum and Degrees – Faculty – Administration • Students • Future Trends
  • 3.
    ACE Mission ACE, themajor coordinating body for all of the nation’s higher education institutions, provides leadership and a unifying voice on higher education issues and influences public policy through advocacy, research and program initiatives.
  • 4.
    ACE Snapshot -Membership 1,658 Members 1,444 institutions and systems 214 associations, international
  • 7.
    Guiding Principles • Autonomy •Competitive Markets • Diversity of Institutions • Equity and Social Mobility
  • 8.
    Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions andEnrollment: Fall 2015 Public Private Not- for-Profit Private-for- Profit Total Institutions 1,620 1,701 1,262 4,583 Four-year 710 1,594 700 3,004 Two-year 910 107 562 1,579 Enrollment 14,568,103 4,063,372 1,345,795 19,977,270 Four-year 8,352,437 4,013,323 1,120,582 13,486,342 Two-year 6,215,666 50,049 225,213 6,490,928 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
  • 9.
    Total Fall Enrollmentin Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions: 1970 - 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000
  • 10.
    Total Fall Enrollmentin Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions, by Institution Level: 1970 - 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total 4-year 2-year
  • 11.
  • 12.
    Multiple Revenue Sources •Tuition and Fees Revenue from Students and Families • State, Federal and Local – Appropriations – Grants – Contracts • Private Gifts • Endowments • Auxiliary Enterprises
  • 15.
  • 16.
    Total Degrees Awarded,by Degree Type: 2014-15 Degree Type Total Awarded Certificates 961,167 Associate’s 1,013,971 Bachelor’s 1,894,934 Master’s 758,708 Doctoral 178,547 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
  • 17.
    Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred,by Top 10 Field of Study: 2014-15 Total 1,894,934 Business 363,799 Health professions and related programs 216,228 Social sciences and history 166,944 Psychology 117,557 Biological and biomedical sciences 109,896 Engineering 97,858 Visual and performing arts 95,832 Education 91,623 Communication, journalism, and related programs 90,650 Homeland security, law enforcement, and firefighting 62,723 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
  • 18.
    Master’s Degrees Conferred,by Top 10 Field of Study: 2014-15 Total 758,708 Business 185,222 Education 146,561 Health professions and related programs 102,897 Engineering 46,115 Public administration and social services 46,083 Computer and information sciences 31,474 Psychology 26,773 Social sciences and history 20,533 Visual and performing arts 17,756 Biological and biomedical sciences 14,650 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
  • 19.
    Doctoral Degrees Conferred,by Top 10 Field of Study: 2014-15 Total 178,547 Health professions and related programs 71,003 Legal professions and studies 40,329 Education 11,772 Engineering 10,239 Biological and biomedical sciences 8,053 Psychology 6,583 Physical sciences and science technologies 5,823 Social sciences and history 4,828 Business 3,116 Computer and information sciences 1,998 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
  • 21.
    4.6 6.2 7.6 9.4 11.0 13.9 17.0 19.4 21.3 23.0 25.6 27.7 29.9 32.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1940 1950 19571965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed 4 Years of College or More Total Source: 1947,and 1952 to 2002 March Current Population Survey, 2003 to 2015 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey (noninstitutionalized population, excluding members of the Armed Forces living in barracks); 1950 Census of Population and 1940 Census of Population (resident population).
  • 22.
    0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Detailed Educational Attainment of People 25 Years and Over: 2000 to 2015 High school diploma College, no degree Associate's Degree Bachelors Master's Degree Professional degree Doctorate degree Source: 2000 to 2002 March Current Population Survey, 2003 to 2015 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey (noninstitutionalized population, excluding members of the Armed Forces living in barracks)
  • 23.
  • 25.
  • 26.
    Tuition Revenue Increasing- Raising Affordability Questions
  • 27.
    • QUALITY IN QUESTION Studyof 2,300 undergraduates – 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college” – 36 percent “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”
  • 29.
    Change in StudentDemographics
  • 30.
    Balance Learning, Familyand Work Source: Lumina Foundation Analysis of NCES Data Sets
  • 31.
  • 32.
    A growing numberof today’s students are students of color. Percentage increase in enrollment, 1996 - 2010 Source: Lumina Foundation Analysis of NCES Data Sets
  • 33.
    Few of today’s studentsstudy or live full-time at flagship, four-year campuses.
  • 34.
  • 35.
    Today’s Students LessLikely to Complete
  • 36.
    Pressures on HigherEducation More Students Fewer are Traditional More Diversity in Learning Needs Quality in Question Pressure for Accountability Less Money INNOVATION IS IN ORDER
  • 37.
  • 38.
    Innovation Meta-Themes Now Future LearningStocks Learning Flows Data Poor Data Rich Inputs Output Less organized More (and Less) Organized Academic v. Professional Prep Academic & Professional Prep Institution view System view
  • 39.
    Global Economy inA Snapshot 787 Dreamliner 5 States 9 Countries 6 Languages 14 Suppliers Global Value Chains Standards-based Technology-Driven Cross-disciplinary Teams Learning is built into Work
  • 40.
    Knowledge Stocks • Proprietary •Protect • Extract Value Knowledge Flows • Networks of people/ideas • Collaboration • refresh
  • 41.
    Learning Stocks toLearning Flows
  • 42.
    Learning Flows YieldsAdaptive Expertise 120 10,000 Well organized body of knowledge Supports understanding foundational concepts Recognize patterns In the body of knowledge Easy retrieval of relevant knowledge Adaptive – metacognition allows transfer of knowledge to other settings
  • 43.
    BA: A Stockor A Flow? 40 classes 1 degree 120 credits 1600 hours Source: Cracking the Credit Hour, New America Foundation,
  • 44.
    Data Poor toData Rich
  • 45.
    Data Poor toData Rich National Study of Instructional Costs and Productivity
  • 46.
  • 47.
    Outputs College Scorecard • PersistenceRate • Graduation Rate • Cohort Default Rate • Cohort Repayment Rate
  • 48.
    • Illustrates whatstudents should be expected to know and be able to do once they earn their degrees. • Proposes learning outcomes to benchmark the associate, bachelor’s & master’s degrees. • Field Development in: 200 institutions, 30 states and six disciplines Five Dimensions of Learning Outcomes
  • 49.
  • 50.
    Academic & ProfessionalPrep = $772B Non-credit PSE Est. # served 22 million Credit PSE Est. # served 21 million Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce,
  • 51.
    Prior Learning Assessment Credit-bearingPostsecondary Education and training Type Credit-bearing Courses Providers(accredited) Public 2-year Public 4-year Private 2-year Private non-profit 4-year Private for-profit 4-year Non-Credit Postsecondary Education and training Type Employer Training Apprenticeships Public Workforce Training Military Volunteer Experiences Providers Business Community Community-base organizations Cross-sector partnerships Community colleges Armed Forces Proprietary Firms Online Providers of Content Emerging Ecosystem To Validate Non-credit Learning and Beyond
  • 52.
    Louis Soares June2012 New Learning Ecosystem “COLLEGE”
  • 53.
    Less Organized Institutional Form & Governance Instruction& Pedagogy CredentialsFinance • Faculty • Academic Committees • Senior Administrators • Board • Hidden cross subsidy • Separation from productivity • Academic Committees
  • 54.
    More organized Institutional Form & Governance Instruction& Pedagogy CredentialsFinance Student Level Learning Data Evidence-based Governance Transparent and Portable Learning Outcomes Transparent Financials drive performance
  • 56.
    World Literature 101Course Redesign • Old delivery: 20 face-to-face lecture sections (about 60 students each) • New delivery: 800-student online section organized around 4-week modules • Technology enabler: web-enabled instruction and assessment/ • Staffing: program coordinator, 4 faculty, 4 grad students, • Outcomes and Savings: • student outcomes better, • reduced costs by over 50 %, • tripled number of student the faculty can handle
  • 57.
  • 58.
    (And Less Organized- Unbundled) Institutional Form & Governance Instruction & Pedagogy CredentialsFinance
  • 59.
    MIT Unveils ‘MicroMaster’s,’ Allowing Studentsto Get Half Their Degree From MOOCs October 7, 2015 by Andy Thomason Master of Computer Science Micro-Credentials to Degrees
  • 60.
    New Credentials -Overthrow BA Hegemony Knowledge Worker Journeyman License Adaptive Experts T-Shaped Professionals Occupational Credential Work Experience AP in English language and AP Statistics
  • 61.
    Reverse the Campus November4, 2012 A Dorm for All Colleges
  • 62.
  • 63.
    Industry/Professional Knowledge General Knowledge Firm/Agency Knowledge Job/Occupational Knowledge Employer Sponsored Training. Union-EmployerSponsored Training, Proprietary School Job Training, On-the-job Training, and Work/Life Experience 20th Century Postsecondary Education Graduate/Professional Schools Strong Link Weak Link 4-Year Colleges and Universities BS/BA Degrees Community College AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees Community College AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees Community College Vocational/Technical Certificates and AAS Degrees
  • 64.
    Industry/Professional Knowledge General Knowledge Firm/Agency Knowledge Job/Occupational Knowledge Toward a 21stCentury Structure Graduate/Professional Schools Strong Link Weak Link 4-Year Colleges and Universities BS/BA Degrees Community College AA/AS (Transfer) Degrees Community College Vocational/Technical Certificates and AAS Degrees Employer Sponsored Training, Union-Employer Sponsored Training, Proprietary School Job Training, On-the-job Training, and Work/Life Experience
  • 65.
    21st Century HigherEducation System Characteristics • Learner Centered • Technology Enabled (learning and management) • Faculty guided and curated • Intentionally geared to career and life success • Provide stackable recognized credentials • Incorporate non-collegiate e.g. apprenticeship • Eliminate “transfer tax” • Different “models” for different institutional missions
  • 66.