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![Foresight Future of Cities
What is the future of UK cities in 50 years?
27
Multiple ‘answers’
in a system of cities
From traditional Foresight report
to co-production of evidence
“Forewarned is forearmed”
[REPORT]
Foresighting
for Cities](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cityvisions-150911112843-lva1-app6891/75/City-visions-27-2048.jpg)
![Foresight Future of Cities37
1st breakout session
Mapping goals [Breakout space 1]
Imagining the future [Breakout space 2]
Constructing scenarios [Auditorium]
Mark McCann
Sharon McNicholl
Richard Pancost
Roz Almond
Gary Dymski
Alan Harding
Nigel Peats
Richard Kenny
Cathy Johnston
Vicky Lofthouse
Simon Brereton
Nigel Horton-Baker
Lynne Davies
Mark Tewdwr-Jones
Mark Jaggard
Tom Wild
Eleri Jones
Sarah Toy
Robin Webber-Jones
Elaine Galletly
Paul Rogers
Jennefer Holmes
Tom Sansom
Fiona Robinson
Sarah Gonsalves
Esther Dixon
City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cityvisions-150911112843-lva1-app6891/75/City-visions-37-2048.jpg)
![Foresight Future of Cities38
2nd breakout session
Mapping goals [Breakout space 1]
Imagining the future [Breakout space 2]
Constructing scenarios [Auditorium]
Cathy Johnston
Elaine Galletly
Paul Rogers
Vicky Lofthouse
Lynne Davies
Mark Tewdwr-Jones
Eleri Jones
Esther Dixon
Mark McCann
Sarah Toy
Robin Webber-Jones
Tom Sansom
Fiona Robinson
Sarah Gonsalves
Jennefer Holmes
Rich Pancost
Sharon McNicholl
Peter Braithwaite
Roz Almond
Gary Dymski
Simon Brereton
Nigel Horton-Baker
Mark Jaggard
Tom Wild
Nigel Peats
City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cityvisions-150911112843-lva1-app6891/75/City-visions-38-2048.jpg)
Uploaded bybis_foresight
City visions
This document summarizes the agenda for a meeting of the Future of Cities Project. The morning session included introductions and an update on the project, as well as presentations on lessons from city foresight practices and the future relationship between cities and central government in the UK. The afternoon included an overview of futures methods, techniques for city foresight, breakout group sessions, and a discussion of the impacts and future actions from the Foresight project. The event brought together experts and city partners to share knowledge and ideas around long-term planning and foresight for UK cities.
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City visions
- 1. Future of CitiesProject: City Visions 08 September 2015, Urban Innovation Centre @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
- 2. @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions @RachelFDCooper Welcome Rachel Cooper,Future Cities Catapult and Future of Cities Project
- 3. 10.05 Foresight projectupdate & introductions 10.25 Lessons about the practice of city foresight 11.30 Future relationship of cities with central gov’t 12.20 Urban Living: call for city pilots Morning Agenda
- 4. Project update &introductions Greg Clark, Lead Expert Group @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions @TheBizOfCities
- 5.
- 6. Lessons about thepractice of city foresight 1. Why is thinking about the long-term future important for cities? 2. What are the ingredients of success in city foresighting? 3. What is needed to improve city foresighting in the UK? @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
- 7. Future relationship: cities- central government 1. What local powers and leadership will be needed to achieve sustainable and prosperous cities in the UK in the longer term? 2. How should central government adjust to increasing self- government of UK cities in the long term? @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
- 8. Urban Living: callfor pilots @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions @research_uk
- 9. Innovate UK Driving Innovation RCUK& Innovate UK: Urban Living Partnership Upcoming Call for City Pilots Presentation at Foresight Future of Cities City Visions Event – 8 September 2015 Gary Grubb (RCUK) and Mike Pitts (Innovate UK) (Urban Living Partnership Team Co-Chairs)
- 10.
- 11. Mexico City Photograph: PabloLopez Luz, via The Guardian
- 12. Strong Economy Environment Quality ofLife Transport WaterandWaste Energy Healthcare Education Security Comms Buildings
- 13. ‘Active Travel’ scenariofor London would save NHS £1bn by 2030 (and avoid 3500 premature deaths) +5km walking and +10km cycling per person per week Integrated City Challenges
- 14. Examples of Integrated CityChallenges • 30% of Birmingham’s traffic is NHS related • 2500 priority families consume 40% of Nottingham’s resources • Swindon needs to create 34,000 jobs by 2030 • Ipswich spends 2/3 of its budget on social care; 85% of its care home residents have Alzheimer’s • Within a seven-mile radius of Glasgow centre life-expectancy drops by 28 years • Belfast is 98% dependant on imported fossil fuels • The New York metropolis has 12 million fewer people than Tokyo, yet it uses more energy in total: the equivalent of one oil supertanker every 1.5 days • Leaky pipes result in 50% water loss in cities like Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo
- 15. The Goal The RCUK/ Innovate UK Urban Living Partnership will harness UK research and innovation strength to help cities realise a vision of healthy, prosperous and sustainable living.
- 16. Our Approach We wantto work with UK cities/ urban areas to help them create, develop and realise their future vision.
- 17. Building on thePast and Adding Distinctive Value We want to: • Build on and develop synergies with other work, past and present • Learn from past experience and ensure that what we do will add distinctive value
- 18. How it willWork Envisage a two stage process in each city / urban area: 1. Diagnostic and visioning phase 2. ‘Delivery’ phase Open to exploring new ways of working across the partnership and with other partners
- 19. The Pilot Phase Weare planning to launch a call on 22 September for a pilot phase in 4-5 cities/ urban areas to refine the approach and ways of working.
- 20. Pilot Cities The pilotcall will be open to a wide range of UK cities & ‘contiguous urban areas’ of differing sizes, complexity, age & geography. The diagnostic work should aim to enhance understanding of inter- dependent challenges and opportunities, add value to existing urban strategies/visions and produce outcomes of value to cities in making future investments and lay the foundations for co-designing integrated responses to complex challenges
- 21. Sharing Learning fromthe Pilots and City Case Studies Our aim is that pilot / city case studies will stimulate insights and innovation of value to other cities and contexts, nationally and internationally.
- 22. Outline Timetable forTaking Forward the Pilot Phase July 2015 Consultation events on plans for the Partnership & pilot phase (London & Glasgow) 22 September 2015 Call for pilot city consortia launched & registration for Town Meeting opens 20 October Town Meeting in Birmingham for potential consortia interested in applying to find out more about the call 26 November 2015 Expressions of interest / intentions to apply submitted (Smart Survey) 21 January 2016 Closes date for submission of full proposals (via JeS) February 2016 TBC Shortlisting / Interviews / final decision / outcome notification March 2016 Announce Grants April 2016 Pilot city consortia start diagnostic phase 2017 Pilot city consortia report on initial diagnostic phase; pilot cities contribute to ‘lessons sharing’ events
- 23. Lunch: please reconvenefor 13.45 Networking opportunity with: - Urban Living Programme - Centre for Cities - Datashine tool - Design Council / CABE - Future Cities Catapult - Independent Transport Commission - Office for National Statistics - Urban Big Data Centre
- 24. 13.45 Overview offutures methods 14.00 Futures techniques and tools (for cities) 14.00 Thematic café sessions (for city partners) 15.45 Impacts of the Foresight project Afternoon Agenda
- 25. Overview of futureswork Corinne Swain, Lead Expert Group @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
- 26. Foresight Future ofCities What is the future of UK cities in 50 years? 26 Multiple ‘answers’ in a system of cities
- 27. Foresight Future ofCities What is the future of UK cities in 50 years? 27 Multiple ‘answers’ in a system of cities From traditional Foresight report to co-production of evidence “Forewarned is forearmed” [REPORT] Foresighting for Cities
- 28. Foresight Future ofCities28 City foresight for adaptability Frequent conclusion of evidence review papers: Cities need to be adaptable within a changing world Also applies to UK system of cities Our report will be designed to stimulate interest in foresight techniques, drawing on examples from our collective work
- 29. Foresight Future ofCities Where are we now? State of city foresight outwith the project 29 Most thinking is mid-term • Local Plans (LA or joint) • Local Transport Plans (LA or joint) • Strategic Economic Plans (LEP) Use of scenarios limited Generally alternative jobs projections or spatial housing options Few explore future roles for their city A few exceptions e.g. Glasgow 2061, London Infrastructure Plan 2050, One Planet Cardiff 2050 E.g. Cardiff Corporate Plan 2014-17 Longer term thinking was more common historically, e.g. Abercrombie plans
- 30. Foresight Future ofCities30 Foresight Future of Cities Where are we now? Lack of capacity Fear of raising expectations where can’t influence Loss of research & intelligence Loss of skills & data Political time horizons + swings Perception that big cities advantaged Changing national-local government relationships Newly elected Mayors demonstrating vision Initiatives managing risk More integrated approaches to policy development and service delivery Challenges Opportunities The value proposition for city foresighting - our report will support
- 31. Foresight Future ofCities Derry/Londonderry Glasgow Edinburgh Newcastle LancasterBelfast Manchester Cardiff Nottingham Bristol Leicester Birmingham London Liverpool Oxford Leeds Derby Sheffield Milton Keynes Rochdale York Cambridge 31 Project engagement with cities 6 city foresight projects seed funded 3 city projects direct project team support National scenarios City visits Collaborative research
- 32. Foresight Future ofCities What are our options? What creative alternatives exist? What levers are critical to achieving desired types of change? What is the roadmap? Where are the vulnerabilities? What assumptions need to be challenged? What do we know about the future? What trends, constraints, opportunities? What direction do we want to go in? What are our aspirations, goals? 32 What we’ve learnt: Foresighting as a journey Visioning Analysing Designing Testing Delivering
- 33. Foresight Future ofCities33 What we’ve learnt: Sample techniques - ‘Visioning’ Goal mapping Creative futures Visions of Cambridge in 2065 Newcastle City Futures York Festival of Ideas Bristol Active Cities Summit Rochdale workshops Personas Rochdale workshops Milton Keynes workshops
- 34. Foresight Future ofCities34 What we’ve learnt: Sample techniques - ‘Designing’ Narrative based scenarios Axes of uncertainty Liverpool Foresight project GM2040+ Manchester project Paper: Cities and public policy Foresight working paper 2 Newcastle City Futures 2065 Projection-based scenarios Population-led scenarios Employment-led scenarios
- 35. Foresight Future ofCities35 What we’ve learnt: Underlying principles for city foresight Our report will also provide guidance on the process of setting up a city foresight exercise from scratch i. Challenge assumptions that the future extends the status quo ii. Have an open mind iii. Be creative – future thinking does not have to be realistic iv. Accept messiness v. The process matters – a glossy report is not essential vi. And at all time have the purpose of why we are engaged in foresight at the forefront
- 36. Foresight Future ofCities Our legacy 36 ‘Menu approach’ for city foresight exercises Community for learning and sharing Increased momentum for more collaborative culture between Whitehall and cities
- 37. Foresight Future ofCities37 1st breakout session Mapping goals [Breakout space 1] Imagining the future [Breakout space 2] Constructing scenarios [Auditorium] Mark McCann Sharon McNicholl Richard Pancost Roz Almond Gary Dymski Alan Harding Nigel Peats Richard Kenny Cathy Johnston Vicky Lofthouse Simon Brereton Nigel Horton-Baker Lynne Davies Mark Tewdwr-Jones Mark Jaggard Tom Wild Eleri Jones Sarah Toy Robin Webber-Jones Elaine Galletly Paul Rogers Jennefer Holmes Tom Sansom Fiona Robinson Sarah Gonsalves Esther Dixon City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations
- 38. Foresight Future ofCities38 2nd breakout session Mapping goals [Breakout space 1] Imagining the future [Breakout space 2] Constructing scenarios [Auditorium] Cathy Johnston Elaine Galletly Paul Rogers Vicky Lofthouse Lynne Davies Mark Tewdwr-Jones Eleri Jones Esther Dixon Mark McCann Sarah Toy Robin Webber-Jones Tom Sansom Fiona Robinson Sarah Gonsalves Jennefer Holmes Rich Pancost Sharon McNicholl Peter Braithwaite Roz Almond Gary Dymski Simon Brereton Nigel Horton-Baker Mark Jaggard Tom Wild Nigel Peats City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations
- 39. Impacts of theForesight project & agenda for action Tim Stonor, Lead Expert Group @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions @tim_stonor
- 40. Closing remarks Alan Wilson,Chair, Lead Expert Group @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
- 41. Thank you City partnersand Lead Experts will be happy to continue the conversation informally over refreshments in the breakout space next door @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions