Climate change and Agriculture

Climate Change and Agriculture
By
Allah Dad Khan
allahdad52@gmail.com

Climate Change
“the greatest challenge facing the world at the
beginning of the century.”
DavosWorld Economic Forum
, Switzerland 2000
(www.weforum.org/)
“the most important long-term issue which we face
as a global community”.
Jack Straw British Foreign secretary
Daily NEWS 15 May 2004)

4
Climate Change: Some
Definitions
Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a
given time and place, with respect
to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.
Climate: Average weather. Statistical description
of mean weather conditions over a
period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.
Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural
variability, attributable to human
activity.

Climate Change Impacts and Adapting to Change
The changing climate impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of
ways. For example climate change can increase or decrease rainfall, influence
agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and
other ecosystems, or even impact our energy supply.
Climate-related impacts are occurring across regions of the country and across
many sectors of our economy. Many state and local governments are already
preparing for the impacts of climate change through "adaptation," which is
planning for the changes that are expected to occur.

With rapid climate change, one-fourth of Earth’s species could
be headed for extinction by 2050.
Around the globe, seasons are shifting, temperatures are climbing and sea
levels are rising. And meanwhile, our planet must still supply us – and all
living things – with air, water, food and safe places to live. If we don't act
now, climate change will rapidly alter the lands and waters we all depend
upon for survival, leaving our children and grandchildren with a very
different world.
High Temp
Changing Landscape risk of drought and flood

Greenhouse Effect
• The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in maintaining a
life-sustaining environment on the Earth;
• If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average
temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K)
instead of the present 15oC;
• Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect
by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;
• It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing
Global Warming and Climate Change.

Natural Climate
Variability
Anthropogenic Inflcesuen since
the Industrial revolution
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency & Intensity
of Extreme Weather Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water Availability
Decrease in Crop
Yields
Newer perspective for sources of
energy
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased
Health Risks
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic

Global Response
– Climate Change is being addressed by several national
research programs in all developed countries:
– A number of developing countries are also actively
pursuing climate change research, e.g.
• In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments and
Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged in CC
research;
• China has a large number of establishments engaged in CC
research.

10
 2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate
Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to
the Prime Minister;
 May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc & Tech;
GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.
 January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change
established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.
 Dec., 2006 : GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics as an
autonomous organization.
 Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task Force on
Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.
Climate Change Science Studies
in Pakistan

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• 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last
century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)
• Increase by 1.1-6.4 0 C projected over the 21st Century, with most
likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 C ;
• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and
decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world
regions;
• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe
cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;
• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps,
particularly the Arctic;
• Substantial rise in sea level.
Some Major Findings of IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is most
vulnerable to Climate Change, because :
 A large part of its economy is based on agriculture which is
 climate sensitive;
 It has low technological and scientific base and have limited
 access to knowledge;
 It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting from CC;
 It lacks financial and institutional capacity.
Vulnerability of Pakistan

Climates Changes Impacts
1. Climate change impact on Agriculture ( Crops)
2. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)
3. Climate change impact on Agriculture (fisheries )
4. Climate Change impact on Water
5. Climate change impact on forest
6. Climate change impact on Food security
7. Climate change impact on Environment
8. Climate change impact on economics
9. Climate change impact on natural disaster
10. Climate change impact on women
11. Climate change impact on conflicts and migration
12. Climate change impact on humans
13. Climate change impact on biodiversity
14. Climate change impact on today
15. Climate change impact on energy
16. Climate change impact on global security
17. Climate change impact on global warming
18. Climate change impact on air
19. Climate change impact on fossil fuels.
20. Climate change impact on society
21. Climate change impact on allergies

1. Climate Change impact on
Agriculture ( Crops)
1.Agriculture has been and will continue to be
significantly affected by changes in climate condition - quantity,
quality, cost of production
2.Existing adaption strategies can help offset many – but
not all –effects over the next 20-30 years; effects are very
likely to worsen significantly beyond then, especially if GHG
emissions remain high
3.Improving the resilience of agricultural systems to climate
change requires protection of the natural resource base
(water & soil) and development of new strategies, tools, and practices
for adaptation

1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops) contd
• Changes in temperature, amount of carbon dioxide
(CO2), and the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather could have significant impacts on crop yields.
• Warmer temperatures may make many crops grow
more quickly, but warmer temperatures could also
reduce yields. Crops tend to grow faster in warmer
conditions.
• However, for some crops (such as grains), faster growth
reduces the amount of time that seeds have to grow
and mature.This can reduce yields (i.e., the amount of
crop produced from a given amount of land).

• Corn: high nighttime temperatures, high temperatures
during pollination, water stress
• Soybean: water stress, high temperatures
• Wheat and small grains: extreme events, frost
during flowering, water stress
• Rice: temperature extremes during pollination, water
management
• Cotton: high temperatures during boll fill
• Pasture and rangeland: water stress
• Fruit trees: chilling requirements not met, high
temperatures during fruit development
• Specialty crops: water stress, high temperatures
1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops)
contd (Effects and Sensitivity Vary by Commodity)

• Insect pests
• Greater numbers, increased insecticide resistance
• Geographic ranges increases & decreases
• Imports from foreign sources
• Pathogens
• Host-pathogen response changes (plants, insects, non-crop
reservoirs)
• Cultural control measures may be less reliable
• Extreme events can spread
• Weeds
– Increased vigor, herbicide resistance
– Geographic range increases & decreases
1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops) contd
(Increased Biotic Stresses )
Will Significantly Affect Agriculture

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture (
Livestock)Animal health
Animal health may be affected by climate
change in four ways: heat-related diseases and
stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of
animal production systems to new
environments, and emergence or re-
emergence of infectious diseases, especially
vector-borne diseases critically dependent on
environmental and climatic conditions.

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)
1. Heat stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and
reduce milk production.
2. Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces
the amount of quality forage available to grazing livestock.
3. Climate change may increase the prevalence of parasites and
diseases that affect livestock. The earlier onset of spring and warmer
winters could allow some parasites and pathogens to survive more
easily. In areas with increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens
could thrive.
4..Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase the productivity of
pastures, but may also decrease their quality. Increases in
atmospheric CO2 can increase the productivity of plants on which
livestock feed.

• Feed Grain & Forage
– Quantity & Quality Decrease
– Production Cost Increase
• Animal Heat & Humidity Stress
– Reduces growth, reproduction,
production (meat, dairy, eggs)
-- Climate control costs increase
• Disease & Pests
– Frequency, intensity, distribution
– Abundance and/or distribution of competitors,
predators, & parasites of vectors themselves
2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Animal
health (Livestock Production is Vulnerable)

(Animal production )
• 1. Direct affects on animal health, growth ,
production and reproduction
• 2. Indirect
• i.On livestock pasture, forage crop production ,
quality and price.
• ii .Heat stress
• Iii. On biodiversity
• Iv.Emergence or reemergence and changes in
distribution of livestock diseases and pests
• V. on Immune system

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)male
reproduction
• 1. Inverse correlatio between environment
zone and spem cone.
• 2.Decrease sperm motality
• 3.Increased, no of dead sperm.
• 4.Increase abnormal morphology of sperm
e.g. abnormal acrosome
• 5.decrease total protein and albumin cone
• 6.Decreased level of testosterone

Female reproduction
• 1. Reduction in duration of estrous.
• 2.Reduce of 17-B estradiol during estrus.
• 3. Reduced diameter and volume of developing follicle.
• 4. 4.5 mounts in summer compared to .6 mounts in
winter.
• 5.Increased cortisol level block estradiol induced sexual
behavour
• 6.Uterinre blood flow decreases 20-30 % in ewe with 1
degree C increase in core temp.
• 7. Conception rates decline in Bos taurus cattle for
temperatur above 23.4 C and a high valus of THI

Female reproduction
• . Reduce embryo proportin development.
• 9.Retarded fetal growth.
• 10. reduced vascular perfusion to placental
bed.
• 11. Reduced oxygen. Water, nutrient ,
hormone supply to embryo.
• 12.Reduced excessive damaging heat away
from embryo.

Female reproduction
• 13. intrauterine growth retardation produce
dwarf and stunted offspring with skeltal
abnormality .
• 14.One fetus of heat stressed twin in 20%
smaller than littrmate.
• 15.Hyperthermia produce fetal malformation.
• 16.Alteration in uterine endometrial secretion.
• 17.Arise in 1.5 degree C in core temp cause
death of embryo.

Female reproduction
• 18. Affect the quality and quantity of forage
produced.
• 19.Hamper the productivity of grazing
livestock.

Species Sensitivities
• Changes: temperature, sea level, river flows, salinity,
currents, winds, storms, and variability
• Species are dependent on one or more of above
• Species can move rapidly if habitat and paths exist
• Fish are cold-blooded. Life processes, like growth, are
faster when warmer (within limits)
• Many species have narrow ecological niches, but there
are many species to fill niches
• Small changes cause large disruptions to a species
• Mixes will change until stability is reestablished

Societal Sensitivities
• Species in more stable environments are
usually more valuable
• Fishers can follow fish, communities won’t
• Political borders or economics stop pursuit
• Developing nations dependent on fish as
food or export earnings are most sensitive

Sensitivity Examples
• Scallop and fish eggs that rely on a gyre to return them
to their habitat on a certain day or week
• Fish eggs in streams or on the sea floor that require a
minimum current speed for oxygenation
• Species that require an influx of freshwater to induce
spawning or to kill predators
• Temperatures above or below the stock’s lethal limit
• Immobility of communities dependent on one species
• Societies without money to buy other foods
• Fishers unable to deal with new vessel/gear demands
Societal

3. Climate change impact on Agriculture (fisheries)
• 1. The ranges of many fish and shellfish species may change. Many marine
species have certain temperature ranges at which they can survive.
• 2. However, moving into new areas may put these species into
competition with other species over food and other resources.
• 3. Some diseases that affect aquatic life may become more prevalent in
warm water . A temperature-sensitive bacterial shell disease likely caused
the large die-off events that led to the decline.
• 4. Changes in temperature and seasons could affect the timing of
reproduction and migration.
•
•
•

4. Climate change effect on water
• Climate change will have major and
unpredictable effects on the world's water
systems, including an increase in floods and
droughts. Extremes in droughts and flooding
will become more common, causing
displacement and conflict. Less fresh water
means less agriculture, food and income.

5.Climate change impacts on forests
• Scientists estimate that up to 20 percent of
global carbon emissions come from
deforestation – greater than the combined
emissions of every car, truck and plane on the
planet. So instead of forests helping us to
solve the climate crisis, deforestation is
making the situation worse.

5.Climate change impacts on forests(
contd)
• Deforestation and land use change
Massive amounts of carbon are stored in
tropical forests. When we destroy these areas
to clear land for ranches or farms, that carbon
gets released into the atmosphere and
accelerates climate change. Studies show that
deforestation accounts for 11% of all human-
caused greenhouse gas emissions.

6. Climate change impacts on food security
• Climate change will have a significant impact on
food availability, food accessibility, food
utilization and food systems stability in many
parts of the world. Climate change poses a
significant risk of increased crop failure, loss of
livestock and will impact on local food security.
In some areas drier and warmer conditions are
predicted, elsewhere wetter and cooler
conditions are expected which will negatively
affect agricultural practices. It will affect human
health and livelihoods, as well as people’s
purchasing power, food markets and food
security at household levels.

7. Climate change impact on Environment
Positive effects of climate change may include greener
rainforests and enhanced plant growth in the Amazon,
increased vegitation in northern latitudes and possible
increases inplankton biomass in some parts of the
ocean. Negative responses may include further growth
of oxygen poor ocean zones, contamination or
exhaustion of fresh water, increased incidence of
natural fires, extensive vegetation die-off due
to droughts, increased risk of coral extinction, decline
in global photoplankton, changes in migration patterns
of birds and animals, changes in seasonal periodicity,
disruption to food chains and species loss.

8. Climate change impact on economics
• The economic impacts of climate change may
be catastrophic, while there have been very
few benefits projected at all. The Stern report
made clear the overall pattern of economic
distress, and while the specific numbers may
be contested, the costs of climate changewere
far in excess of the costs of preventing it.

9.Climate change impact on natural disaster
• Natural disasters Natural disasters related to existing
climate variability frequently occur in the poorest
countries and the poor are usually the hardest hit. In
responding to the potential increase in natural
disasters due to climate change, lessons can be learned
from coping with existing climate variability. Climate
change may result in more frequent and severe
disasters and climatic shocks than experienced to date,
so this provides grounds for integrating risk
management into development practices, and for
considering strategically, how to integrate long-term
climatic change into disaster risk managemen

10.Climate change impact on woman
• Climate change and gender inequality Women are very
vulnerable, and are most likely to be disproportionately
affected by the adverse impacts of climate change
because they constitute the majority of poor people.
Women’s traditional roles as the primary users and
managers of natural resources, primary caregivers, and
labourers engaged in unpaid labour mean they are
involved in, and dependent on livelihoods and
resources that are put most at risk by climate change.
Furthermore, women lack rights and access to
resources and information vital to overcoming the
challenges posed by climate change, http

11.Climate change impact on conflicts and migration
• Conflicts and Migration It is widely recognized
that the nature and extent of climate change not
only hampers human development and
ecosystems integrity, but also forms a major
threat to human security at all levels, from local
to international. Extreme climate events such as
floods, droughts, and desertification are likely to
force increasing numbers of our country
population to migrate from rural to urban areas,
away from increasingly arid areas , and often
outside the region.

12.Climate Change impact on humans
• Weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Changes in climate affect the average weather conditions that we are accustomed to.
• Warmer average temperatures will likely lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer heat waves. This could increase the number of heat-
related illnesses and deaths.
• Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other
direct threats to people and property.
• Warmer temperatures could increase the concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants.
• Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. Contribute to mental health
impacts such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.
• Contribute to carbon monoxide poisoning from portable electric generators used during and after storms.
• Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. [The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States due to climate
change. The length of the season may also have increased. In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of ragweed, an invasive plant with
very allergenic pollen. Tests on ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures would increase the amount and
timing of ragweed pollen production.
• Higher air temperatures can increase cases of salmonella and other bacteria-related food poisoning because bacteria grow more rapidly in warm
environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal distress and, in severe cases, death.
• Heavy rainfall or flooding can increase water-borne parasites such asCryptosporidium and Giardia that are sometimes found in drinking
water. [1]These parasites can cause gastrointestinal distress and in severe cases, death.
•
•
•
•

13.Climate change impact on
biodiversity
• 1. 4000 breeds of cattle, bufelloe , sheep .goat,ass .
Horse etc lost.
• 2.16% become instinct
• 3. 12% become rrare.
• 4. 20 % of reported breeds are classified as atrisk.
• 5. Almost one breed become extint per month.
• 6.With 4.5 c increase , major extinction.
• 7.Reduction of 15-37 % of plant and animals will
extinct between 2050.
• 8. About 30 % plant and animal vulnerable if temp
increases 1.5- 2.5 degree C .

14. Climate change impact today
1. Arctic sea is melting through rising air and water temperature
2. Glaciers and permafrost are melting
3. Sea surface temperature and large lakes are warming
4. Ecosystem are changing and crops are withering
5. Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength
6. More frequent heat waves
7. Warmer temperature effect health of humans
8. Sea water is becoming more acidic
9. Increasing intensity and frequency of storm events, flooding and
sea level rise .
10. Decreasing water availability throughout season .
11. Air condition cost increases as the temperature increases .
Loadsheding prevails .

15. Climate change impact on energy
• During and following the industrial revolution,
we acquired most of our energy—to build our
cities, to transport goods and people, and
more—through the burning of fossil fuels like
coal and oil. Fossil fuels are a finite,
unsustainable source of energy and burning
them produces the GHGs that lead to global
warming.
•

16.Climate change and global security
• Climate change is a real, transnational threat. It
has now become a serious challenge for global
security. The world has to adapt now, otherwise
these rising climate change threats could cause
serious consequences to global security. There is
dire need of cross-border information sharing
regarding climate change and need of strong
cooperation and collaboration among countries
and regions.
•

17. Climate change impact on global
warming
• Intergoveernment panel on climate change ( IPCC)
• The IPCC report also highlights that global warming will hit
Asia the hardest, with flooding, famine and rising sea levels
putting hundreds of millions at risk. But the majority of the
marginalised communities in the disaster-prone areas have
no knowledge, no capacity, and no early warning system to
combat with harmful impact of climate change. Despite
having a lot of potential to tackle the challenges of climate
change, very little has been done regarding mitigation,
preparedness, awareness and adaptation strategies.
•

18. Climate change impact on air
• The close connection between climate and air quality is also
reflected in the impacts of climate change on air pollution levels.
• Ozone and particle pollution are strongly influenced by shifts in the
weather (e.g., heat waves or droughts). Based on projected future
climate scenarios, and in the absence of additional emissions
reductions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projected “declining air quality in cities” into the future as a result
of climate change. Further, EPA concluded in 2009 that GHG
emissions “may reasonably be anticipated both to endanger public
health and to endanger public welfare. Climate change itself may
have a direct impact on air quality. Air quality modelling studies
show that with warmer temperatures in the future, higher levels of
ozone will be produced in North American cities.
•

19. Climate change impact on fossil
fuels
• Illness and deaths related to extraction, air pollution and
water pollution, contaminated seafood, and Black Lung
disease for miners. ▀Damage to land, homes and loss of
habitat from mountaintop mining, oil and gas extraction,
buildup of toxic coal ash at coal power plants, oil spills, and
explosions and the costs to remediate the damage.
▀Environmental degradation and loss of aquatic habitat
caused by acid rain and polluted water, including surface,
ground and drinking water sources. ▀Increased national
security costs to protect diminishing sources of oil. ▀Faster
depletion of fossil fuels and lack of adequate renewable
replacements. ▀Diminishing water resources caused by
extraction of fossil fuels.

20. Climate change impact on society
• Climate change could affect our society
through impacts on a number of different
social, cultural, and natural resources. For
example, climate change could affect human
health, infrastructure, and transportation
systems, as well as energy, food, and water
supplies.
•

21. Climate change impact on allergies
• Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. [4] The
spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States
due to climate change. The length of the season may also have
increased. In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of
ragweed, an invasive plant with very allergenic pollen. Tests on
ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and
temperatures would increase the amount and timing of ragweed
pollen production.
• Changes in climate may enhance the spread of some
diseases. Disease-causing agents, called pathogens, can be
transmitted through food, water, and animals such as deer, birds,
mice, and insects. Climate change could affect all of these
transmitters.
•

Main Challenges of Climate Change
• A.Water Challenge
• B.Food Security challenge
• C. Climate Extreme Events Hazards
• D. Impacts on other Ecosystems

A. Water Challenge (Vulnerability of Water Resources to
Climate Change)
• Increased variability of Monsoon
• More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers
threatening IRS Flows
• Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture,
water for industrial and domestic sectors.
• Increased risks of floods and droughts

52
Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,
1978
2002

53
The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier, was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but
is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.
1875 2004

54
Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa
2000 1993

55
Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya
This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has
retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth
Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat
boundaries courtesy the La5555nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)

GLOFS in Pakistan
• As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine
or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to
floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
which can destroy:
• property,
• farms,
• socio-economic infrastructure
• and livelihood of mountain people
• and downstream communities.
57

GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin
61
Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

62
Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC
Hunza River Basin

63
Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland
2005
2001
2003

64
There is an urgent need to
 Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water
resources and storage requirements in the
wake of climate change threat
Take appropriate ameliorative measures well
in time to avoid calamites.
TheA. Water Challenge (Vulnerability of Water Resources to
Climate Change)
Water Challenge: Conclusion

Agriculture Systems in Pakistan
• Irrigated Agriculture
Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to national
production
• Rained and Dryland Agriculture
Contributes <30% to national production.

B. Food Security (Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change)
• Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to
glacier melt in the wake of climate change
• Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in
quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
• Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to
climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust
storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

B. Food Security Cropping Seasons in
Pakistan
There are two crops seasons in Pakistan
namely, Rabi and Kharif. Rabi crops are grown
normally in the months of November to April
and Kharif crops are grown from May to
October. These two seasons make Pakistan an
agricultural economy and its performance
depends on the climate during the whole year.
Climate change generally affect agriculture
through changes in temperature,
precipitation.

B, Food Security Impacts of Climate Change on
Crops
• Shortening of growing season length
• Loss in yield
• Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g.
flowering, grain initiation stages
• Increased pest/disease incidence
• Increased crop water requirements

• Flash floods,
• Droughts,
• Heavy precipitation events,
• Hailstorms,
• Dust storms,
• Cyclones,
• Heat /Cold waves
B. Food security Climate Extreme Events

Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at
Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm
occurred in 1977
2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after
78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929
2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1
developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran
coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during
the previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month
2006 In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185
deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring
eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed at
least 35 lives (Associated Press)
2005 Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in
March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There
were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

Recent Climate Extremes in Pakistan
2005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous
areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought
extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers
2005 Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir
region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486
people during second week of February
2004 Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along
the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000
nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.
2003 Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was
responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash
flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.
2003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains
in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalities
in the Sindh province

2003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached
52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near
44°C
2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July
1999-2001 History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of
surrounding countries
Continued:

Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah
( 23rd July 2001)

Flood Stranded People on the Highway

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Land
Degradation in Pakistan)
 Water Erosion : 17%
 Wind Erosion : 8%
 Salinity and Sodicity : 9%
 Waterlogging : 5%
 Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Impacts on
Land degradation)
Land degradation enhanced by climate change
due to
• Wind and water erosion, as a result of low
and high rainfall
• Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of
greater evaporation from land surface.

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Vulnerability of
Mountain Region)
• Enhanced de-glaciation
• Loss of biodiversity
• Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading to
surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides,
sedimentation load downstream
• Positive impact on yield of wheat
• Prospects of two crops a year

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Coastal
Zones)
• Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests,
coral reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructure
• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk
to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant
communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become
saline
• Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea
level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of
the long response time of the global ocean system.

Coping with the Climate Change
• Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of
vulnerable areas and communities
• Preparedness for disaster and risk management
• Development of early warning system
• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-structural
changes
• Developing new and innovative farm production practices,
including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
• Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their active
participation in vulnerability assessment and implementation of
adaptation
• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all
scales, levels and sectors

Extreme Weather Events
Recent extreme weather events which inflicted great loss to
the socio-economic sector
Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008,2009, 2010, 2011
Prolonged Drought 1999-2002
Historic River Flooding 2010
Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011
 Severe Urban Flooding 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010,
2011
Heat Waves in Spring 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 (Reduced the
wheat yield)
Snowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010
Drought at sowing stage 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and
2011
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

• How is Pakistan affected by climate change?
Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains
severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the following ways:
• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources within the
next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers
recede.
• Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce
availability of freshwater for the population.
• Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to
increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.
• Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in
Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the decreased yields
with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and
food security will remain high.
• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are
expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of
cholera.
• The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and
intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in
migration patterns.

Coping Pakistan Chapter
• 1. “knowledge gap” among the farmer community should be filled through
awareness-raising campaigns and provision of information on changing weather
patterns.
• 2. “We need to link all our development activities like dams, roads, canals and
bridges with climate change; otherwise all the development may go waste,”
• 3. “The government should revive the climate change ministry and develop
different viable projects to seek international funding for them.”
• 4. The country needs to develop climate change related projects to get its
monetary share from the Green Climate Fund, since it cannot cope with these
challenges from its own resources.
• 5.
•

• Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change
• Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and
information systems to enhance disaster preparedness
• Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses
• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural
changes
• Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk
management and adaptation
• Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop
varieties and irrigation techniques
• Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation
• Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively
in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation
• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and
sectors
•

86
 Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches, Floods,
Droughts and Cyclones.
 Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Pakistan’s
economy.
 Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of
appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.
• Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development of
early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the vulnerable
communities/sectors.
Conclusions

Climate change and Agriculture

Climate change and Agriculture

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Climate change and Agriculture