Climate Change In Pakistan

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN:
WATER, FOREST AND ENERGY
Zulfiqar Ali Lashari
2016252644

CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• CLIMATE CHANGE
• EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN
• EFFECT ON WATER
• EFFECT ON FOREST
• EFFECT ON ENERGY
• CONCLUSION

• Pakistan is situated in South East Asia.
• The country is listed in the third world countries. Pakistan
consists of four provinces namely Sindh, Punjab,
Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa.
• Pakistan got independence on August 14, 1947 from
British.
• Pakistan is bordered by India to the east, Afghanistan the
west and Iran to the southwest while China borders the
country in the northeast.
• The geography of Pakistan is a profound blend of
landscapes varying from plains to deserts, forests, hills and
plateaus and ranging from coastal areas of the Arabian Sea
in the south to the mountains of the Karakoram range in the
north.
• climate Pakistan lies in the subtropical arid zone and most
of the country is subjected to a semi-arid climate. Based on
physiographic factors and causes of diversity in climate, the
country has been classified into four major climatic regions:
AREA:
1,881,913 km2
(726,611 sq mi)
Introduction

Climate Change
Weather:
Climate:
Climate Change:
The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place,
with respect to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.
Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather
conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.
Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable
to human activity.

Climate Change
UNFCCC …..”a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over a comparable
period of time”

CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
Decrease in Crop
Yields
Newer perspective for sources
of energy
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased
Health Risks
Natural Climate
Variability
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic
Anthropogenic Influences since
the Industrial revolution
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization

Climate Change/Global Warming
Scientific Evidence
According to the 3rd Assessment report of Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001):
 Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 0C during the
20th Century.
 Future increases in global temperature are expected in the
range of 1.4 – 5.8 0C by the end of this century.
 In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise
between 3.5 to 5.5 0C by 2100.
Recent findings in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC
(2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5
0C are almost inevitable.

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON
CLIMATE OF PAKISTAN
• Although Pakistan itself contributes very little to t
he overall emissions of the Greenhouse Gases, yet
it remains one of the most severely hit countries
of the world by the process of Global warming.

RISING TEMPERATURES IN PAKISTAN
As an ill effect of global warming, the annual mean surface tempera
tures in Pakistan have been steadily increasing during the past deca
d. A rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1°C in the coastal areas along
with a 0.5 to 0.7% increase in solar radiation over southern half of c
ountry has been observed. In central Pakistan, a 3-5% decrease in cl
oud cover with increasing hours of sunshine have also been respons
ible for increasing the temperatures.

RECENT CLIMATIC CATASTROPHES IN
PAKISTAN
Pakistan ranks 16th on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index(CC
VI) by Maple Croft, jumping up 13 positions in one year.
German watch places Pakistan as the “most affected” country for
2010 and in top 10 for 1990-2010 by climatic changes.
Climate changes are costing the economy $14 billion a year, whic
h is almost 5% of the GDP. According to the Asian Development B
ank, more than 10 million people have been displaced in Pakistan
over the last 2 years due to these climate related disasters.

Observed climate change in Pakistan
• Change in temperature:
0.6-1.0 oC increase in mean tempe
rature in coastal areas since early
1900s.
• Change in precipitation:
10-15% decrease in coastal belt a
nd hyper arid plains over the last
40 years in northern Pakistan.
18

Water Resources In Pakistan
Pakistan is an agricultural country. Therefore water is an
essential resource for sustained economic growth as well
as human survival.
Water, which is one of the most important national
resource is increasingly becoming a scarce natural resource.
Presently agriculture sector is using 93%, domestic sector
5% and industrial sector 2% of water resources.
The domestic and industrial sector water uses are
projected to increase to 15% by 2025.
Agriculture sector is the major user of water, but its share
is expected to decrease because of competing non-
agricultural demands.

Our Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the
world’s largest contiguous irrigation system.
It comprised three large dams, 85 small dams, 19
barrages, 12 inter-river link canals and 45 canal
commands.
This irrigation network is the biggest infrastructure
asset of Pakistan worth approximately US$ 300
billion of investment.
(source: Ministry of Water & Power).

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON WATER
Water resources are inextricably linked with climate; hence, the
projected climate change has serious implications for Pakistan’s
water resources.
The freshwater resources in Pakistan are mainly based on snow and
glacier melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to
climate change.
The average annual flow of IRS is around 142 million acre-feet of
which 104 MAF is diverted to the canal network, while major
portion of the remaining balance of around 35 MAF outflows to the
sea.

Fortunately Pakistan has a large useable groundwater
aquifer, God gifted natural reservoir, which is largely
recharged from the surface flows and rains.
This resource is being exploited heavily and particularly in
some hyper-arid areas to the extent of criminality.
Pakistan has moved from a water affluent country to water
stressed country. In 1947, per capita water availability was
5000 cubic meter, which has currently decreased to around
1000 cubic meter, and projected to decrease to 800 cubic
meter per capita by the year 2025.

Water sources
• The five major (Jhelum, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, and Chenab)
• The three minor rivers (Haro, Soan, and Siran), which make up
the embryonic Indus river system, is the main source of surf
ace water in Pakistan, along with the dams.
• Major Dams are Tarbela and Mangla, with Bhasha under the
way.

Glaciers and Pakistan
 Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain
regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB).
 Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows
from UIB.
 International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers
in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and,
if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the
year 2035 is very high”.
 Hewitt (2005):
reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in
the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain
glaciers.

Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to
Melting of HKH Glaciers
(As reported in recent studies)
World Bank (2006):
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of
Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of
flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
IPCC AR4 (2007):
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to
three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram
glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

How is Pakistan affected by climate change?
• Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead
to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the
population.

Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus Flows
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
 Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge(Cumecs)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

Vulnerability of Water Resources
 Increased variability of Monsoon
 More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers
threatening IRS Flows
 Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due
to rise in snowline
 Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and
water supply for industrial and domestic sectors.
 Increased risks of floods and droughts

• Pakistan is at greatest risk due to increased flooding from
the rivers and in some cases sea.
• Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate chan
ge is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which
in turn will affect livelihoods and food production.

FLOOD
• Melting of glaciers
• Recurrent flooding's
• Pakistan's economy has been crippled heavily by devastating and r
epetitive floods during the last decade. In the past 10 years, Pakist
an has been hit by floods almost every year. However, the floods o
f 2010 and 2011 have emerged as the biggest catastrophes in the
country's history.

Flood...
• 2010 floods
• The flood of 2010 remains as one of the biggest
tragedies in the world's history, with 20 million p
eople affected by it. The floods resulted in appro
ximately 1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and
destroyed more than 1.89 million homes.
• 2011 floods
• Although nowhere near the 2010 floods, the 201
1 floods also wrecked havoc , and affected 5.3 m
illion people and 1.2 million homes in Sindh, as
well as inundating 1.7 million acres of arable lan
d.

Motivation.
..
Can you Help us...

A distressed woman clutches her children as she wades through
shoulder high water in the flood affected areas of Sind.

2010 WHO Report...
• Total 5.3 million consultations were reported in the
country.
• 708, 891 individuals (15% of the total population) w
ere reported with acute diarrhoea.

DROUGHTS
• A Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to the lack of
rainfall. The chief characteristic of a drought is a decrease of water
availability in a particular period and over a particular area.

Drought....
• Pakistan's economy has been pu
nched heavily by the continuous
spell of droughts for the last ma
ny years, particularly in the provi
nces of Baluchistan and Sind.
• Drought in these areas has redu
ced the river flows, resulting in
drying up of the irrigation canal
s, leading to a severe agricultura
l deprivation.
• The increased temperatures bec
ause of the increased GHGs as
well as a mismanagement of the
water reservoirs need to be bla
med for the condition

FOREST SECTORS IN PAKISTAN
Pakistan is a country with one of the lowest forest cover in the world.
which is mainly due to the arid and semi-arid climate in most parts of the
country.
forests in the country consisted of 4.2 million ha (4.8%),
irrigated plantations occupied 103,000 ha (0.11%),
while rangelands covered 28.50 million ha (32.40%) out of the total land area
(87.98 million ha) of Pakistan.

the total area under forests in the country was 4.34 million ha (5%)
out of which 3.44 million ha were state owned while the tree cover
on farmlands and in private forests was 0.78 million ha (0.88%).
(FAO,2007).
Furthered by the increased rate of deforestation, the country’s forest
cover is alarmingly on the verge of disappearance.
average an area of 31,658 ha (-0.75%) of natural forests is cleared or
deforested each year in Pakistan.
The forests of Pakistan reflect great physiographic, climatic and
edaphic contrasts in the country.
(Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO)

Impacts on Forestry
 Loss of Biodiversity
 More frequent forest fires resulting in
deforestation, soil erosion and landslides
 Shifting of forest areas northwards (to cooler
places)

Deforestation
• Deforestation is the "perm
anent removal of standing
forests”
• Deforestation include con
version of forestland to fa
rms or urban use

Deforestation
• Forests currently cover only 2.5 per cent of Pakistani land
area, the country has the highest annual deforestation rate in
Asia, according to the latest findings of the World Wide Fund
for Nature
• 61,000 hectares (approx over 151,500 acres) of forest land
have been converted to non-forest use in the country since
its inception

Causes of deforestation in Pakistan
Pakistan is one of those countr
ies where rate of deforestation
is extremely higher.
The main cause of deforestatio
n in Pakistan is the day-by-day
increase in population which in
creases requirement of the foo
d and land for residential purp
ose. In addition, the requireme
nt for furniture, other househol
d products and fuel is also incr
easing
58

Causes of deforestation in Pakistan
People are clearing forests to ma
ke residential colonies, roads bet
ween and within cities and for ag
riculture usage. Wood, which is g
ained by these forests and trees,
is used to make building material
s, furniture, paper products and i
s used as firewood in most rural
areas of the country
59

Impact of deforestation on climate and environm
ent
Deforestation not only affects the clim
ate by increasing the atmospheric leve
l of carbon dioxide but also affects the
environment by inhibiting water recycli
ng, triggering severe flooding, aquifer
depletion, soil degradation and the ex
tinction of plant and animal species
60

Impact of deforestation on climate and
environment
• Cutting down forests will cause a decline in photosynthetic
activity which results in the atmosphere retaining higher
levels of carbon dioxide. Forests also store an enormous
amount of organic carbon which is released into the
atmosphere as carbon dioxide when forests are cleared by
burning. Clearly, deforestation contributes to global warming.
This deforestation is a real harm for our ecosystem and
environment. It is the main cause of global warming
worldwide.

ent
Water recycling is the movement of rain from the forest
to land masses further inland. In a healthy forest about
3/4th of the intercepted water is returned to the atmosp
here as moisture laden air masses which move inland, co
ol and are converted to rain. Land cleared by deforestati
on returns only about 1/4th of the rain water to the atm
osphere. This air mass has less moisture and delivers less
rain further inland. Deforestation inhibits water recycling
and converts inland forest to dry land and potential was
te land
62

ent
Severe flooding is a result of defor
estation because removal of the f
orest leaves little vegetative cover
to hold heavy rains. The inability o
f land void of forest to hold heavy
rain water will also trigger mudslid
es. Severe flooding and mudslides
are extremely costly because they
devastate homes and communities
63

environment
• The excess water from land cleared of forest becomes runoff
water and enters the ocean instead of seeping downward
into the soil to recharge aquifers. Aquifer depletion is already
becoming a serious problem in certain areas of the planet
and as the human population continues to grow so will the
demand for fresh water

environment
• Today deforestation, especially, in the tropics, decimates plant
and animal life. Tropical rainforest contain about 7% of land
surface but over half of the plant and animal species on the
planet. If tropical rainforest deforestation continues at the
current rate, it is estimated that by the first part of the 21st
century about half of the remaining rainforest will be lost
along with about 5 to 10% of all the species on the planet

ent
Deforestation also results in soil degradatio
n. Forests store nutrients that are required f
or all plant life. In the tropics almost all nut
rients are stored in the vegetation because
tropical soil has little organic matter and al
most no nutrient storage capacity. If tropica
l forests are cleared for cropland, the land
will yield crops for only a few years and wh
en the nutrients are depleted they become
wasteland
66

Deforestation increase flooding in Pakistan
Deforestation in Pakistan directly
contributed to the severity of flo
oding seen there in 2010, 11, 12
and 13. With the hills and moun
tains due to lack of tree cover a
nd erosion increased, in places
dragging remaining tree cover d
own causing blockages, damagi
ng dams and increasing floodin
g
67

PAKITAN IN LEADING TOWARDS……..
The rate of deforestation in Pakistan
has been accelerated harshly and The
World Wide Fund Report warns that i
f the current deforestation trend of la
nd conversion from forest to other us
es is not checked, the country will no
t be able to meet its international co
mmitments under the MDGs to incre
ase its forest cover from 2.5 % to 6 %
by 2015
68

Impact of Climate Extreme Events
 Climate Extreme Events
Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation
events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat
waves
 Cause damage to life and property
 Destroy standing crops
 Destroy stored food grain
 Spoil quality of food grains

HOW CAN WE STOP DEFORESTATION ?
• Governments have to
make citizens aware of
the issue including chil
dren
• Reduce wasteful land u
se practices
• Improve already devel
oped lands
70

HOW CAN WE STOP DEFORESTA
TION ?
• Each person can plant
trees once in a while t
o maintain the ecosyst
em
• Groups can be formed
to decrease deforestat
ion
• Plantation weeks in Pa
kistan
71

Impacts on Energy
 Greater demand of energy
 Reduced hydropower generation because
of low water supply
 Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to
cyclonic activity
 Reduced utilization of solar energy – due
to increased cloudiness as a result of high
evapotranspiration

Sector wise Energy Consumption of Pakistan
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use
• The energy sector is vulnerable to the effects
of climate change in several ways, as many
different aspects of the energy industry are
directly affected by environmental and climatic
conditions.
• The effects include;
• Seasonal and daily temperatures and
precipitation changes affect the timing of peak
electricity demands and the size of these
peaks;
• Extended periods of drought lead to reduced
water availability for hydropower generation;

• Changes in temperature and precipitation
affect water availability for cooling power
generators;
• Changes in cloud cover, temperature and
pressure patterns directly affect wind and solar
resources (affecting resource availability or
productivity);
• Increased intensity and frequency of severe
weather events impact design and safety
requirements of future energy infrastructure
and other capital investments;
• Increased occurrence of blackouts may be
observed as a result of higher electricity
demand for cooling and refrigeration caused
by higher temperatures.

• Changes in precipitation cycles due to climate
change can alter river flow patterns, resulting
in longer periods of drought, thus causing
water levels to decrease and affecting
hydroelectric generation capacity.
• Another potential consequence of altered river
flow patterns is the increased incidence of
elevated flow rates and flooding that exceed
the safety margins of existing hydro plants.
• On the other hand, increased flow rates, if
timed and managed correctly, may result in
increased hydropower generation.

Climate change impacts on biofuels production systems
• Biofuels are among the most promising types
of biomass energy systems in place
• For example, temperatures are linked with the
real evapo-transpiration of sugarcane plants in
semi-arid conditions (Fonseca, J. 1984),
(Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995), therefore, an
increase in temperature and a decrease in
rainfall will cause increased evapo-traspiration,
resulting in lower production of sugarcane and
thus lower bio-fuel production.

Climate change impacts on wind energy generation systems
• Wind energy is not affected by shifting water
supplies as opposed to fossil-fuel based power
systems or other alternative energy systems.
• Nevertheless projected climate change impacts
are likely to have significant positive or
negative impacts on wind energy generation
given that it depends strongly on climatic and
environmental conditions at a particular site.
• Wind is caused by the uneven heating of the
earth’s surface by the sun.

Climate change impacts on wind energy generation
systems
• In order to ensure the sustainability of future
wind energy projects, the identification of
locations where deep changes in global
atmospheric circulation are expected is critical.

Actions on climate change
Mitigation:
 Promoting low-carbon energy sources and technologies
 Promoting energy conservation and efficiency
 Reducing emissions from deforestation
Adaptation:
 Integrating climate risks into policies
and planning at different levels
 Addressing climate impacts
in various sectors
 Building the capacity of communities to
cope with climate change related problems
References

CONCLUSION
• Pakistan, which is an already resource stressed country, h
as been crippled by the process of global warming.
• More than 10 million people have been displaced over t
he last two years, the agricultural land lies barren and fin
ancial losses have been estimated at $2 billion.
• These climatic catastrophes will not die down. Research st
udies have concluded that changing weather patterns will
be the foundation for more intense and prolonged droug
hts and heat waves.
• Meanwhile, tremendous precipitation events will become
more frequent and future tropical cyclones will become m
ore strong.

CONCLUSION
• So it is the time for policy makers to sit and think seriously
about this issue. New plans and strategies have to be made
to overcome the problem
• Rules and regulations regarding cutting of trees must be
followed
• Government and society including us (the future disaster
managers) have to feel their responsibilities and individuals
have to play their role to reduce the rate of deforestation

References
• Dr. Qazi, et,al; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS
IN PAKISTAN, FINAL REPORT OF THE SECTORAL STUDY ON AGRICULTURE,
SEPTEMBER, 1997.
• Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2007
• Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP-1992),
• Framework for Implementation of Climate change policy, Government of
Pakistan Climate change Division Islamabad, November 2013.
• Ministry of Climate change Government of Pakistan, National climate change
policy September 2012.
• Dr. Rasul, et, al.;Pakistan Metrological Department, climate change in Pakistan,
focused on Sindh Province, Technical Report No. PMD-25/2012.

References
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Pakistan
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Pakistan
• http://www.protothema.gr/world/article/?aid=218449
• http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-6-71543-Climate-
change-disasters-in-Pakistan-and-its-consequences
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Pakistan
• http://www.lead.org.pk/cc/basicguide_climate_change.html
• Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO, 2007.

Climate Change In Pakistan

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