Climatic cange and health

Climatic cange and health

• 5.
  CO2 ppm Temp oC 1000 11001200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 Correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and Earth’s average surface temperature Year CO2 concentration Earth’s Temperature (background wobble due to natural influences) Graph from: Hanno, 2009
• 6.
  Climate Change: HealthImpact Pathways Physical systems (river flows, soil moisture, ocean temp) Indirect health impacts – ecologically mediated Indirect health impacts – socially mediated Direct impacts (extreme weather events, heatwaves, air pollutants, etc.) Climate Change Impacts
• 7.
  Regions afflicted byproblems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture.Sydney] Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
• 8.
  Floods Malaria Diarrhoea Malnutrition 020406080100120 0 24 6 8 10 Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions) 2000 2030 Deaths and DALYs attributable to Climate Change, 2000 & 2030 Selected conditions in developing countries WHO/McMichael,Campbell-Lendrum, Kovats et al, 2004 Now (2000) Future (2030) Deaths Total Burden
• 9.
  1m: half ofBangladesh rice fields 2m: most of Mekong Delta
• 10.
  Climate Change andHealth Research Tasks and Policy Foci Human society: • Population size • Economic activity • Culture, governance Human pressure on environment Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008 Adaptation: Reduce health impacts/risks Human impacts: • Livelihoods • Social stability • Health Health Co- benefits? Unintended health effects Mitigation of Climate Change: Reduce GHG emissions Climate - environmental changes, affecting: • Meteorological conditions • Water flows • Food yields • Physical (protective) buffers • Microbial activity • Extreme weather events 4 Risks to humans better understood 2 3Natural environmental processes 1a-c Need for local prevention
• 11.
  Photo- synthetic activity 20o C 30oC 40o C Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis 0% 100% Example: Field & Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007: Globally averaged: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%. So: +2oC would mean 12-20% fall in global grain production. +2oC +2oC Plus: • Floods, storms , fires • Drough ts – range, severit y • Pests • Diseas es
• 12.
  Are the zones beingpushed south, by warming? … and here? Health Consequences? Marked wet summer and dry winter Wet summer and low winter rainfall Uniform rainfall Marked wet winter and dry summer Low rainfallWet winter and low summer rainfall AridWinter dominantWinter Summer dominant Summer Uniform Crucial for wheat-belt Australia: Climate change, seasonal rainfall zones, farm yields, health impacts
• 13.
  Reducing Health Impactsof Climate Change … Health Co-Benefits as ‘bonus’Disease burden Mitigation begins emissions reduction (etc.) now 2050 2100 Health Co-Benefits (local/regional) Baseline burden Health impact averted by mitigation Impact avoidance via adaptation
• 14.
  Model-fitted relationship ofmonthly Salmonellosis case counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five Australian cities, 1991-2001 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Average MonthlyTemperature oC Salmonellacount Perth Brisbane Adelaide Melbourne Sydney D’Souza et al., 2003