Color of stem april 2018
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This document outlines a study on future work and technology scenarios for 2050 conducted by The Millennium Project. It discusses three possible global scenarios - a mixed scenario where changes are irregular, a political turmoil scenario with increased unemployment, and a self-actualization scenario where universal basic income and education focus on increasing intelligence. It also describes the study methodology, which includes literature review, scenarios development, workshops in various countries, and analysis of results to develop policy recommendations, especially regarding education and learning. The goal is to help governments and societies better prepare for potential impacts of technological changes on employment.
![Human Augmentation: AI-Brain Interface
as a “Neural Lace” (term coined by Elon Musk)
TheWorld
Artificial
Intelligence
Human
Brain
“Neural lace," a mesh of electronics
[and photonics] that will allow AI
and the brain to work together.
This could help human brains keep
up with future enhancements in AI.
https://youtu.be/ZrGPuUQsDjo](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/colorofstemapril2018-180407154650/85/Color-of-stem-april-2018-28-320.jpg)
Color of stem april 2018
- 1. Future Work/Technology 2050 Global Scenarios and Implications for Education and Learning for the Color of STEM April 7, 2018 Jerome C. Glenn, The Millennium Project
- 2. Inevitability of New Economics • Concentration of wealth is increasing • Income gaps are widening • Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm • Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor • Future technologies can replace much of human labor • Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as usual” or “surprise free” trend forecast • What can we do about this?
- 3. Future Work/Technology 2050 Study 1. Literature and Related Research Review 2. Real-Time Delphi 3. Three Global Scenario Drafts to 2050 4. Separate RTDelphi Feedback on each Scenario 5. Final Scenarios, Policy Issues, and Workshop Considerations 6. National Workshops to Explore Long-range Strategies 7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze & synthesize results 8. Final Report for Public Discussion
- 4. Work/Tech Global Scenarios 2050 1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag 2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair 3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy Each scenario is about 10 pages of detailed cause & effect sequences that illustrate decisions
- 5. Future Work/Tech 2050 Workshops Initial workshops Initial workshops In planning Exploratory talks 1. Argentina (two, and series) 11. Italy Australia Croatia 2. Bolivia (series) 12. The Netherlands (two) China Dubai, UAE 3. Brazil (Sao Paolo) 13. Mexico (two) Kenya Egypt 4. Bulgaria 14. Poland Peru (2030 study first) Georgia 5. European Foresight Network 15. Spain (four: Basque & Madrid) Pakistan India 6. Finland 16. South Korea (two) Romania Iran 7. Germany (series) 17. Uruguay (series in progress) Slovakia Montenegro 8. Greece 18. Venezuela South Africa (1/18) Slovenia 9. Hungary Sri Lanka Turkey 10. Israel (two workshops) United States (4/25) United Kingdom Zambia
- 6. Workshop Discussion Groups Culture Business & Labor S &TGovernment Education & Learning
- 7. Charrette Workshop Process From the whole to the parts – back and forth – so the parts are consistence with the whole set of strategiesPress Conference
- 8. Education & Learning Recommendations • Make increasing intelligence an objective of education. • In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self- actualization; retrain teachers as coaches using new AI tools. • Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering skills. • Free Tele-education everywhere; ubiquitous, life-long learning systems. • Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human relations, philosophy, entrepreneurship (individual and teams), art, self-employment, social harmony, ethics, and values. • Know thyself to build and lead a meaningful working life with self- assessment of progress on one’s own goals and objectives.
- 9. Education & Learning Recommendations • Intergenerational learning exchanges sharing competencies of elders with youth. • Consider experimental alternative education/learning models like Finland’s education model that develops creativity, imagination, self actualization. • Utilize robots and AI in education. • On-demand learning (also bite-sized) in learning portfolios. • Unify universities and vocational trainings. • Focus on exponential technologies and team entrepreneurship. • Empathy training.
- 10. Education & Learning Recommendations • Teach technology while preserving thinking abilities. • Support hybrid education systems: STEM + social + economy. • Change curriculum at all levels to normalize self-employment. • Transition from teaching centers to learning centers. • Benefit corporations to intervene in education systems. • Management of tech effects on students. • More future-oriented professional guidance. • 2030-50 Private/public and machines/humans blurring make ethics the cultural theme. • Support Education X-Prize and other efforts to reach poorer regions.
- 11. Three Forms of Artificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence These three are often lumped together as AI This confuses the discussion about AI
- 12. Next Technologies (NT): Imagine How NT Synergies Will Shape Your Company Artificial Intelligence Robotics Synthetic Biology & Genomics Computational Science Cloud & Big Data Analytics Artificial & Augmented Reality Nanotechnology (two kinds) IoT, Tele-Everything & Tele- Everybody, the Semantic Web Quantum computing Tele-Presence, Holographic Communications Intelligence augmentation Collective Intelligence Blockchain 3D/4D Printing Materials/Biology Drones, Driverless Cars (and other autonomous vehicles) Conscious-Technology Synergies Among These
- 13. The Old Way of Seeing the Future of Technologies: Linear and Separate Artificial Intelligence Robotic manufacturing Computational Science 3-D4-D Priting Nanotechnology Quantum computing Synthetic Biology Drones Artificial General Intelligence Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody the SemanticWeb
- 14. Future Way of Seeing Future of Technologies: Integration and Synergies
- 15. Next Smart phone? And how many functions of your smart phone will this replace? What new functions? Face recognition? Zoom vision? Aggression warnings?
- 16. Future Synergies Robotic manufacturing Drones Quantum computing Robotic manufacturing 3D，4D Printing Augmented Reality Tele-Presence Holographics Nanotechnology Artificial General Intelligence Tele-Everything Tele-Everybody the SemanticWeb Increasing individual and collective intelligence Synthetic Biology Nanotechnology
- 17. Future Synergies Artificial Intelligence Robotic manufacturing Quantum computing Drones Future Technology Robotic manufacturing 3D，4D Printing Augmented Reality, Tele-Presence, Holographics
- 18. What is possible… will change • Moore’s Law • + • Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI • + • Computational science • + • Synergies among NT • These four together will change what we think is possible.
- 19. Global Employment Assumptions Workforce 3 billion 2000; 6 billion 2050 Scenario 1 Business as Usual Scenario 2 Political Turmoil Scenario 3 Self-Actualization Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion Unemployed or in transition 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion Informal Economy 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion
- 20. Scenario 1: It’s Complicated – A Mixed Bag • A business-as-usual trend projection • Increasing acceleration of change with both intelligence and stupidity • Irregular adoption of advance technology • Major employment growth in Biotech Industries • High unemployment where governments did not create long-range strategies • Mixed success on the use of universal basic income. • Giant corporations grow beyond government control, in this government-corporate, virtual-3D, multi-polar world of 2050.
- 21. IoT AI Contact Lens – always in Virtual and Augmented Reality connected to the word Hands-free, phone-free, laptop-free, AI-Human symbiosis
- 22. Scenario 2: Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair • Political grid-lock increases social polarization, prevents decisionmaking • Political, economic, environmental migrations increase ethnic conflicts • Governments did not anticipate impacts of artificial general intelligence: hence, no strategies to address increasing mass unemployment • Unemployment exploded in the 2030s leads to 2050 in political turmoil • Financial systems cannot support ageing societies, financial crises • World order has deteriorated into a combination of nation-states, mega- corporations, local militias, terrorist groups, and organized crime
- 23. Scenario 2 Jobless Migrations
- 24. In Scenario 2 AI makes this Combination Far More Powerful… Organized Crime CorruptionTerrorism Information Warfare …Making Democracy and Free Markets… …An Illusion
- 25. Scenario 3: If Humans Were Free the Self-Actualization Economy Governments did anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence Conducted extensive research on how to phase in universal basic income systems Increasing intelligence becomes a goal of education Self-employment promoted Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to foster cultural change from an employment culture to a self-actualization economy.
- 26. Your Personal AI Avatar searches the web while you sleep… … then wakes you up in the morning ….with all kinds of interesting things to do, some for income, some because the are just fun, and some that are both.
- 27. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991 By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could we create? Consider what these two geniuses created!
- 28. Human Augmentation: AI-Brain Interface as a “Neural Lace” (term coined by Elon Musk) TheWorld Artificial Intelligence Human Brain “Neural lace," a mesh of electronics [and photonics] that will allow AI and the brain to work together. This could help human brains keep up with future enhancements in AI. https://youtu.be/ZrGPuUQsDjo
- 29. … Acts like a TransInstitution UN Organizations NGOs and Foundations Universities GovernmentsCorporations The Millennium Project
- 30. 63 Nodes...and two regional networks in Europe and Latin America Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Tunisia Yerevan Sri Lanka
- 31. Preface Executive Summary Ch 1 Global Challenges Ch 2 2017 State of the Future Index Ch 3 Future Terrorism & Deterrence Ch 4 Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios and Workshop Strategies Ch 5 Conclusions Appendix
- 32. 39 Chapters 37 Different Methods 1,300 pages Largest collection of Internationally peer- reviewed methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source
- 34. Current and Previous Sponsors/Clients: • Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt (2013-2015) • AGAHI Pakistan (2016-18) • Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation (1996–2000) • Amana Institute, São Paulo, Brazil (2004) • Applied Materials, Santa Clara, California (2002–09) • Argentina Ministry of Agriculture (2012) • Azerbaijan State Economic University (2009-2016) • City of Gimcheon (via UN Future Forum, So. Korea) (2009–10) • Deloitte & Touche LLP, Cleveland, Ohio (1998–09) • The Diwan of His Highness the Amir of Kuwait (2010–11) • Environmental Law Institute (2017) • Ford Motor Company (1996–97, 2005–06) • Foundation for the Future, Bellevue, Washington (1997–98, 1999–2000, 2007–08) • General Motors, Warren, Michigan (1998–2003) • Government of the Rep. of Korea (via UN Future Forum) (2007–08) • The Hershey Company (2008–09) • Hughes Space and Communications, (1997–98, 2000) • Kuwait Oil Company (via Dar Almashora (2003–04 ) • Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (via Dar Almashora for Consulting) (2005–06) • Ministry of Communications, Rep. of Azerbaijan (2007–11) • Ministry of Educ. and Presidential Commission on Education, Republic of Korea (2007) • Monsanto Company, St. Louis, Missouri (1996–98) • Montenegro Ministry of Science and Technology (2012) • Motorola Corporation, Schaumburg, Illinois (1997) • NATO, Brussels, Belgium (2016) • Pioneer Hi-Bred International, West Des Moines, Iowa (1997) • Rockefeller Foundation (2008–11; 2013) • Shell International (Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum Company), London, UK (1997) • UNESCO, Paris, France (1995, 2008–10) • United Nations Development Programme, New York, (1993–94) • United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan (1992–95, 1999–2000) • Universiti Sains Malaysia (2011) • U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, Arlington, Virginia (1996–2011) • U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (2000–03) • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Wash., D.C. (1992–93, 1996–97) • U.S. Department of Defense, Off of the Secretary • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Foresight and Governance) (2002) • World Bank (via World Perspectives, Inc. 2008 and GEF Evaluation Office 2012) • In-kind Sponsors: • Google • George Washington University • Harvard University • The Smithsonian Institution • World Future Society • UNESCO
- 35. If there is time…
- 36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? Chapter 1: 15 Global Challenges
- 39. Chapter 2 State of the Future Index
- 40. Where are we winning? Living longer Healthier lives Beating poverty Wealthier Education Water resources Energy efficiency Child Mortality Internet Users
- 41. Where are we losing Environment social unrest Terrorism Corruption Organized crime
- 42. Menu Options for each Challenge GFIS 13 Menu options for each of the15 Global Challenges
- 44. For further information The Millennium Project +1-202-686-5179 [email protected] State of the Future 19.1: http://www.millennium-project.org/state-of-the-future-version-19-1/ Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://www.millennium-project.org/publications-2/#method Global Futures Intelligence System: http://www.millennium-project.org/projects/global-futures-intelligence-system/