"Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO" oleh @ProfRoySembel at IPMI Kalibata
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The document presents a comprehensive overview of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), discussing their definition, purpose, processes, and empirical evidence regarding their performance. It highlights the educational and professional background of Prof. Roy Sembel, who has significant expertise in corporate finance and has contributed to the academic discourse on IPOs. The discussion includes the advantages and disadvantages of IPOs, strategic considerations for companies, and the importance of market conditions and underwriter selection in the IPO process.
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"Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO" oleh @ProfRoySembel at IPMI Kalibata
- 1. Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel Twitter/Instagram: @ProfRoySembel Facebook/LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel e-Newsletter: [email protected] Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO
- 2. 2
- 3. AGENDA • Opening / Introduction • IPO: What / Why / How • Empirical Evidence • Discussion • Concluding remark 3
- 4. 4 PROF. ROY SEMBEL, IR, MBA, PHD EDUCATION 1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude 1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours 1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance; Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and Heterogeneous Information” 1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta. 2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand 1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta. 1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate (S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects: Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management. WORK EXPERIENCE 1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB. 1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam. 1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam 1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh. 1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI
- 5. 5 1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta 2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara, Co-founder Indonesia Learning Institute (InLIne), Indonesia School of Life (InSchoOL) 2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk 2005- Professor in Financial Economics; Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia 2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya, 2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Mobee Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia) 2007- Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI), Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia 2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN) Ketua Umum Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS) 2008 Board of Advisor UMN 2008-2009 Ketua Dewan Pembina Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS) 2008-2010 Chairman CAPITAL PRICE 2009-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH 2010-2012 Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange 2012- IPMI International Business School; Senior advisor, Vriens & Partners Independent Commissioner, HITS & MCS International 2014- Chairman of Index Committee, Indeks Investor 33 Advisory Council, PLN Corporate University MISCELLANEOUS Speaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA, Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen & Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media
- 6. 6 Pioneer Business School in Indonesia since 1984, courses delivered fully in English with case study / interactive method of learning The best internationalized private business school in Indonesia (Rated 3 Palms in 2014) (http://www.eduniversal-ranking.com/business-school-university-ranking-in-indonesia.html) The only Indonesian Business School in the top 100 business school in Asia 2015 (http://find-mba.com/most-popular/asia) Highlights about IPMI International Business School
- 8. IPMI IBS: Rigor AND Relevant 8 Academic Rigor Business Relevance IPMI IBS • Case Study, English • Power Talk • GFP, CIP • Business Simulation • Investment Simulation • iReCons ; LRC • Global and Industry networks • Alumni networks • Balanced Faculty members High High Low Low
- 9. Power Talk and Seminar 9
- 10. FACULTY MEMBERS: Academic Rigor + Business Relevance
- 13. EDUNIVERSAL RANKING IPMI is the only Indonesian private business school in 3 Palmes level
- 15. 15 DEAN’S MESSAGE FOR STAKEHOLDERS OF IPMI IBS: 7 H’s • 2B Be Hopeful and Helpful • 3U Use Heart, Head, and Hand • 2S Stay Hungry and Humorous
- 16. Prof Roy Sembel 16 KOMUNIKASI: • E-mail: [email protected] • Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel • LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel • Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel • E-Newsletter: [email protected]
- 17. AGENDA • Opening / Introduction • IPO: What / Why / How • Empirical Evidence • Discussion • Concluding remark 17
- 18. IPO = Initial Public Offering • Penawaran sekuritas kepada masyarakat • Dilakukan oleh perusahaan (Emiten) untuk menjual sekuritas / efek (biasanya saham) kepada masyarakat • Berdasarkan tata cara yang diatur oleh UU Pasar Modal dan Peraturan Pelaksanaannya diawasi oleh OJK • Biasanya dilanjutkan dengan pencatatan sekuritas untuk diperdagangkan di bursa efek (BEI)
- 19. 19 FOUR CORNER STONES OF CORPORATE FINANCE? McKinsey.com 1. Core of Value Principle 2. Conservation of Value Principle 3. Expectation Treadmill 4. Best owner Principle When considering IPO, remember those principles
- 20. Why Do Companies Go Public? • Fund Growth Plans • Currency for M&A • Recapitalization (retire debt) • Liquidity • Employee compensation • Enhanced Image – Landlords – Creditors/Suppliers – Recruiting/Retention
- 21. Penawaran Umum Perdana Strategis Keuangan Tujuan non-finansial Mengoptimalkan kegiatan usaha Antisipasi munculnya peraturan yang lebih ketat Struktur Terbaik Tujuan finansial Kondisi pasar yang baik/timing Harga optimal Struktur TerbaikMeningkatkan nilai pemegang saham Penghematan pajak Kesesuaian dengan peraturan Bapepam & peraturan lainnya Dilusi Strategic Aspects of Public Offering
- 22. 22 IPO Process • Underwriter Selection • Registration • Marketing and Book Building • Pricing • After Market Activities
- 24. 24 Before IPO During IPO After IPO STAGES OF IPO Menentukan Tujuan Penilaian Kesiapan (Due Dilligence) Corporate Plan Restrukturisasi Persiapan Data Keuangan Seleksi Profesi Penunjang Penyusunan Jadwal Familiarisasi Peraturan Pasar Modal RUPS Penyusunan Pernyataan Pendaftaran: Proyeksi Keuangan Laporan Keuangan Comfort Letter Legal Opinion Prospektus Agreements Penyerahan Pernyataan Pendaftaran dan Pemasaran Publik Ekspose Pernyataan Pendaftaran Dinyatakan Efektif Ketaatan Pelaporan Keterbukaan dan Pemerataan Informasi Menghindari Benturan Kepentingan Ketaatan Penggunaan Dana dan Pernyataan Lainnya Dalam Prospektus Membentuk Layanan Kepada Investor dan Pihak Terkait
- 25. 25 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE KEY TO REALIZE VALUE 2. GO VS NO GO Rewarding winners 1. SCREENING IDEAS Separating winners and losers 3. FUNDING OR SELLING OUT 4. BUSINESS RESULTS
- 26. 26 Kerangka Kerja Dasar Pemahaman Perusahaan Faktor Internal Faktor Eksternal Analisa SWOT Alternatif Restrukturisasi Memilih alternatif terbaik Penilaian Saham Perusahaan Atas dasar: •Efisiensi Biaya •Penghematan pajak •Penyederhanaan proses •Memaksimalkan nilai pemegang saham •Kesesuaian dengan Peraturan •Daya tarik untuk penanam modal
- 27. 27 IPO Valuation Issue/Risk Analysis vs IPO valuation Economic & Monetary Condition The Indonesian Banking Industry Capital Market Sentiment Government Regulation Legal aspects Financial Accounting Process Accuracy & Timeliness of F/S Good Corporate Governance Capital Planning Divestment/Dilution strategies Financial Accounting Process Improvement Portfolio Asset Internal and external factors Issue/risk mitigation Financial and Process Environment Information Technology - MIS Accounting standard compliance Operational - effectiveness system & procedures Asset Quality
- 28. IPO candidate evaluation: Company Characteristics • Growth Prospects • Predictability of Results • Management Team • Historical Track Record – Size;Profitability • First Mover Advantage • Sponsorship
- 29. 29 Analysis of Internal Factors Visi, Misi, dan Tujuan jangka panjang Strategi Operasi/Investasi Strategi Permodalan Pendapatan Pajak Ekuitas Strategi dan Kebijaksanaan Faktor Pendorong SDM, Teknologi, Cabang/Unit dan ModalSumber Daya Kinerja Keuangan Beban Analisis Faktor Internal
- 30. IPO Evaluation: Sector/Market Characteristics • Overall Size • Growth Rate • Competitive Dynamics • Comparable Companies’ Performance • Institutional Appetite
- 31. Analysis of External Factors Pendatang baru Produk pengganti Pembeli Pemasok • • • Kompetisi
- 32. IPO Evaluation: Market Conditions • Backlog • Cash Inflows to Mutual Funds • Deals Pricing Below/Within/Above Range • Withdrawn vs. Completed Offerings • Market Performance of Recent IPOs • Stable Economic Climate
- 33. IPO Evaluation: Underwriter • Research Expertise • Distribution Capabilities • Corporate Finance Focus • Chemistry • Geography (retail offices)
- 34. Pitch Book • Executive Summary • Capital Markets Update • Company Positioning • Valuation • Structure and Timing of IPO Process • Track Record of Investment Bank • Team Members Commitment • References
- 35. Prospectus • Cover • Summary • The Compnay • Risk Factors • Use of Proceeds • Dividend Policy • Capitalization • Dilution • Selected Financial Data • Management Discussion • The Business • Management and Security Holders • Description of Securities
- 36. Registration Statement • Prospectus • Exhibits – Underwriting Agreement – Articles of Incorporation – Opinion of Company Counsel – Stock Option Plan(s) – Employment Agreements – Registration Rights Agreements – Material Contracts – Computation of Earnings per Share – Other supporting materials
- 37. Life As a Public Company • Reporting – Financial Reports, Press Releases, Conference Calls, Forward-looking Statements • Trading Blackouts • BOD Liability • Investor Relations • Secondary Offerings – Additional Cash – Enhance the Float – Orderly Exit for Large Holders
- 38. AGENDA • Opening / Introduction • IPO: What / Why / How • Empirical Evidence • Discussion • Concluding remark 38
- 39. 39 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON IPO Empirical evidence: Ibbotson (1975): P1 > Po Instant Profit Overnight Underpricing? Principal Agent, Winner’s Curse, Signaling, Overreaction Ritter (1991) Inferior Performance Overtime NOT underpricing Sembel (1996) IPO Anomalies Truncated Excess Supply, Heterogeneous Info Withdrawn IPO (WIPO) Diskusi: IPO = Dana Murah ? Case: IPO GARUDA, KRAKATAU STEEL
- 40. 40 IPO Initial Return (“Underpricing”) Instant Profit IPO Underpricing 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Years Underpricing% Source:Ritter,JayRialandWelch,Ivo,"AReviewofIPOActivity,Pricingand Allocations"(February2002).YaleICFWorkingPaperNo.02-01. http://ssrn.com/abstract=296393
- 41. 41 Long-Run IPO Performance: Inferior Year IPOs Market Adjusted Size and Book-to- Market Adjusted 1980 88.20% 35.50% 17.10% 1981 12.80% -26.20% -7.40% 1982 32.20% -36.50% -48.70% 1983 15.40% -38.70% 2.50% 1984 27.70% -51.30% 3.00% 1985 7.60% -39.50% 7.30% 1986 18.60% -20.40% 14.30% 1987 -1.80% -18.90% 4.50% 1988 55.70% 8.30% 51.30% 1989 51.10% 16.80% 32.50% 1990 12.20% -34.10% -32.40% 1991 31.50% -1.70% 5.80% 1992 34.80% -2.30% -19.40% 1993 44.90% -7.80% -23.90% 1994 74.10% -8.30% 1.00% 1995 24.80% -62.30% -14.10% 1996 25.60% -57.00% 8.60% 1997 67.70% 6.80% 41.00% 1998 27.10% 9.10% 12.20% 1999 -46.20% -32.90% -74.20% 2000 -64.70% -36.40% -42.60% Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return Periods IPOs Market Adjusted Size and Book-to- Market Adjusted 1980-1989 20.80% -24.70% 6.90% 1990-1994 44.70% -7.20% -12.70% 1995-1998 36.00% -32.30% 11.60% 1999-2000 -53.80% -34.30% -61.20% Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return
- 42. AGENDA • Opening / Introduction • IPO: What / Why / How • Empirical Evidence • Discussion • Concluding remark 42
- 43. 43 CASE DISCUSSION IPO = Dana Murah ? Buying IPO shares: Is it a good investment for investors?
- 44. AGENDA • Opening / Introduction • IPO: What / Why / How • Empirical Evidence • Discussion • Concluding remark 44
- 45. 45 Advantages vs Disadvantages of IPO Advantages: 1. Access to capital markets 2. Improved liquidity for shareholders 3. Allow original owners to diversify 4. Monitored by external capital markets 5. Generate information from capital markets 6. Enhance credibility of company Disadvantages: 1. Expensive out of pocket costs 2. High after IPO costs of dealing with shareholders 3. Competitors get easy access of company’s information 4. Public pressure
- 46. IPO • Instant Profit Overnight – Underpricing? – Can retail investors make abnormal profit? • Inferior Profit Overtime – When to buy? • Not cheap fund, but flexible fund for issuers
- 47. 47 FREE e-NEWSLETTER WISDOM, WEB, WEALTH Kirim e-mail dari e-mail anda ke [email protected] Kalau anda jalan-jalan ke Tasikmalaya Jangan lupa ngemil sambel, tahu dan oncom Kalau masih ada yang ingin ditanya Jangan lupa kirim e-mail ke [email protected] Facebook / LinkedIn: Prof Roy Sembel Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel Yahoogroup: [email protected]