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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - June 2025

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Andrew Griffith

Half-year 2025 comparisons Permanent residents admissions: From 255,015 in 2024 to 207,510 in 2025, decline 18.6 percent, (from 2023, decline 21 percent), about 50 percent of 2025 target TR2PR (Those already in Canada): From 148,020 in 2024 to 126,365 in 2025, decline of 14.6 percent (from 2023, decline 13 percent). TRs-IMP: From 420,070 in 2024 to 295,505 in 2025, decline of 29.7 percent (from 2023, decline 23.4 percent), already exceeds 2025 target TRs-TFWP: From 110,910 in 2024 to 106,105 in 2025, decline of 4.3 percent (from 2023, decline 7.2 percent), already exceeds 2025 target for both agriculture and non-agriculture workers Students: From 248,820 in 2024 to 152,775 in 2025, decline of 38.6 percent (from 2023, increase 26.1 percent), about 50 percent of 2025 target (likely to overshoot given third quarter has highest number of admissions (between 40-45 percent for post-secondary albeit only 34 percent in 2024) Asylum Claimants: From 93,315 in 2024 to 57,810 in 2025, decline of 38 percent (from 2023, decline 3.7 percent) Citizenship: From 205,363 in 2024 to 151,804 in 2025, decline of 26.1 percent (from 2023, decline 14.2 percent) Visitor Visas: From 868,234 in 2024 to 568,195, decline of 34.6 percent (from 2023, decline 40.5 percent)

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Canadian Immigration Tracker 2018 to June 2025 Working Draft - Key Slides 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 2025-1 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
Q2—2025 Highlights • PR Admissions: Stable from 104,095 in Q1-2025 to 103,415 Q2-2025. Q2 year-over-year change (change from 2023 in parentheses): Economic - PNP -43.9% (-20.2%), Economic - Federal -4.1% (7.9%), Family -7.4% (-16.1%), Refugees -36.2% (-32.7%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, I am using a six-month time lag. Decrease from 174,330 in Q3-2024 to 110,535 Q4-2024. Q4-2024 year-over-year change (change from 2022): -34.1% (-22.9%) • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decrease from 28,683 in Q1-2025 (0 Arrima) to 11,162 Q2-2025 (0 Arrima). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -52.7% (-54.1%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decrease from 66,450 in Q1-2025 (63.8% of all PRs) to 59,915 Q2-2025 (57.9% of all PRs). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -14.9% (9.2%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Decrease from 171,245 in Q1-2025 to 124,260 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year (change from 2023): Agreements: -34.1% (-22.3%), Canadian Interests: -27.5% (-40.8%), Other IMP Participants -49.4% (-24.0%), Not stated -74.2% (-63.9%) • TRs/TFWP: Increase from 44,760 in Q1-2025 to 61,345 in Q2-2025 (seasonal). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): Caregivers -2.9% (-2.9%), Agriculture -0.5% (-5.1%) and Other LMIA -17.1% (-15.5%). • TRs by occupation code: 2024 Full Year-over-year (D) change (change from 2022) 14.0% (157.4%) • Students: Decrease from 96,420 in Q1-2025 to 56,355 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): All -55.1% (-62.5%), post-secondary -63.1% (-71.0%) • Applications: Decrease from 74,740 in Q1-2025 to 69,155 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -45.8% (-71.0%) • Asylum Claimants: Stable from 28,880 in Q1-2025 to 28,930 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -37.4% (4.9%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc.): Decrease from 400 in Q1-2025 to 303 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -96.8% (-92.4%). • Settlement Services (2024): Increase from 2,922,275 in 2023 to 3,121,595 in 2024 (most recent data, services, not unique clients). 2024 year- over-year (change from 2022): 8.8% (33.6%). • Citizenship: Decrease from 87,765 in Q1-2025 to 64,039 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -37.8% (-30.6%). • Applications (2024): From 317,538 in 2023 to 356,733 in 2024. 2024 Year-over-year change (change from 2022): 12.3% (35.0%). • Visitor Visas: Increase from 273,990 in Q1-2025 to 294,205 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -32.9% (-49.3%). 3
Change Across Major Programs 2024 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline, 2024/2023 Comparison 4 PR Admissions-PNP PR Admissions-Fed TR2PR Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Asylum Claimants Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications (2023) New Citizens Settlement Services (2023) Visitor Visas -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% -19.9% -1.3% -23.8% -32.4% 17.5% 3.6% -14.7% 1.3% 6.1% 12.3% 10.6% 26.7% 110.8% 22.2% 46.4% 71.4% 217.7% 131.9% 186.2% 184.6% 36.2% 80.8% Change 2024/2018 Change 2024/2023
January-June Comparisons 5 Q2-2023 Q2-2024 Q2-2025 Year over year 2 year change Levels Plan 2025 target (annual) % Annual target PR Admissions 262,575 255,015 207,510 -18.6% -21.0% 395,000 52.5% TR2PR 145,305 148,020 126,365 -14.6% -13.0% TRs-IMP 385,800 420,070 295,505 -29.7% -23.4% 285,750 103.4% TRs-TFWP - All 114,370 110,910 106,105 -4.3% -7.2% 82,000 129.4% TRs-TFWP - Non-seasonal 60,820 62,550 57,425 -8.2% -5.6% 45,100 127.3% Students 121,177 248,820 152,775 -38.6% 26.1% 305,900 49.9% Study permit applications 433,097 292,676 143,895 -50.8% -66.8% Asylum claimants 60,050 93,315 57,810 -38.0% -3.7% Citizenship 176,999 205,363 151,804 -26.1% -14.2% Visitor visas 955,555 868,234 568,195 -34.6% -40.5% Note: TFWP target excludes seasonal (agriculture) and permit extensions, have imputed 55 percent non-agriculture for LMIA target. Students will likely exceed targets given bulk of admissions in third quarter (typically between 40-45 percent for post-secondary). Highlighting: Change - Red, decrease of 25 percent or more, Orange, decrease of 10 percent or less, Percent of 2025 target - Green, Increase of 55 percent or more
Permanent Residents 6
Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-25 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades Healthcare STEM Trades Transport Agriculture French Education General QC Arrima 7
PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-25 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 8 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India (corrected from previous version)
Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-25 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-Q1 2019-Q3 2021-Q1 2022-Q3 2024-Q1 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 9
Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-25 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-Q1 2019-Q3 2021-Q1 2022-q3 2024-Q1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 10
Admissions: PRs Canada Total Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -67.5% -45% -22.5% 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 68.7% 23.6% 36.2% 80.8% -32.7% -16.1% 7.9% -20.2% -36.2% -7.4% -4.1% -43.9% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 11
Admissions: PNP Provinces Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -70% -35% 0% 35% 70% 105% 140% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 42.9% 93% 59.5% 50.1% 115.3% 127.9% -34.2% -10.4% -55.5% -20.8% 1.1% -1.5% -48.4% -55.1% -61.1% -47.6% -11.1% -46.9% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 12
Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% -25% 50% 125% 200% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK -27.1% 190.5% 60.8% 25.3% -14.8% 86% -35.9% 0.4% -8.1% 81.4% -22.5% 1.6% 105.7% -27% -24.1% -1.6% -64.3% -29.2% 6.4% -27.9% -20.1% -19.2% 35% -20.1% -26.6% -24.9% -60% -32.4% -27.6% -26.1% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 13
Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-25 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 14
Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -125% 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 115.2% 115.4% 121.9% 377.9% 172.6% 134.9% 421.5% -18.1% 4.6% -34.9% -24.6% -10.9% 378.2% 13.9% -21.1% -42.5% -61.7% -52.8% -4.8% 97.6% -53.4% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 15
Admissions: TRs to PRs Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 175.6% 133.4% 150.4% 184.6% 80.4% -2% -10.8% 16.6% 12.1% -31.8% -16.2% -13.5% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 16
Two-Step Immigration TR2PR Percent Total Admission—2018-25 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 20% 40% 60% 80% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Percent TR2PR Total Admissions 17
Asylum Claimants 18
Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-25 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Airport Border Inland Other 19 Note: The “other claim of fi ce” surge in Q42022 likely re fl ected delays in classi fi cation, most of these were likely Inland
Asylum Claimants: Irregular Arrivals RCMP Interceptions as Percent Total Asylum Claimants—2018-25 0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Percent Claimants Irregular Arrivals Asylum Claimants 20
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% Airport Border Inland 326.3% -25.5% 512.3% 42.3% 45.1% -68.6% -31% 81.6% -79.6% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 21
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti Congo DRC 131.1% 556.5% 55.6% 116.8% 177.2% 69.3% 49.5% 171.4% 179.7% 616.5% -6.5% 506.9% -79.6% 162.8% 3% -43.2% 99.4% 32.1% -81.5% 91.4% -36.8% 173.7% -52.5% 10.8% -37.7% -54% -44.9% 6.6% -22.7% -54.3% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 22 Note: USA no longer in top 25
Asylum Claimants: Provinces 2018-25 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 ON QC BC AB MB SK Atlantic 23
Asylum Claimants: Provinces Change Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% ON QC BC AB MB SK Atlantic Untitled 1 326.3% -25.5% 512.3% 223.1% 328.6% 255% 80.9% 83.7% -10.9% 0.6% -37.3% 75% 25% -23.7% -22.7% 12.4% -34.3% -46.7% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 24
Temporary Residents 25
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-25 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 26
Temporary Residents by Program Canada Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 396.5% 27.7% -52.1% 114.4% -31.6% -17.1% -0.5% -2.9% -40.8% -22.3% -17.1% -0.5% -2.9% -27.5% -34.1% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 27
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-25 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 28
IMP by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan 12.5% 2.3% 66.2% -39% -12.8% 31.9% 21.8% 6.3% -24.6% 280.2% -2.5% -37.4% 4.6% -34.6% 6.3% 10.8% -46% -38.8% 0.3% -54.3% -8.6% -20.1% -22.6% -21.9% -2.2% 0.4% -28.4% -10% -3.3% -32% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 29
IMP by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 133.1% 229.8% 132.4% 196.1% 195.2% 123.8% 258.5% -22.2% 6.6% -38% -36.1% -43.9% -20.8% -39.8% -24.8% -27.2% -32.2% -34% -30.5% -28.7% -37.6% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 30
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-25 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 31
TFWP by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -125% 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 347.3% 400.5% 36.1% -25.4% -13.4% 445.6% 158.7% 113.8% 0.5% 49.1% -5.4% -26.3% -10.5% -3.8% -52.7% 6.2% -31.8% 13.8% -8.7% -5.2% -9.2% -47.1% -28.4% -3.8% -38.4% -20.4% -30.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 32
TFWP by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 82% 253.7% 318.5% 313.6% 72.2% 223.6% 148% -10.1% -12.7% 33.6% -2.9% -1.4% -15.1% -20.6% -3.6% -22.6% -8.3% -21.6% -4.2% -9% -15.7% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 33
TFWP by NOC Level—2018-24 Percentage 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 A (0, 1) B (2, 3) C (4,5) D (6,7) 34
TFWP by NOC Sector—2018-24 Percentage 30% 60% 90% 120% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 Management Business & Admin Sciences Health Education & Govt Arts culture & Sport Sales & service Trades, transport Natural resources, agriculture Manufacturing & utilities 35
TFWP by NOC Level Full-Year Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, 2024/18 -350% 0% 350% 700% 1,050% 1,400% A (0, 1) B (2, 3) C (4,5) D (6,7) 1,322.1% -43.1% 375.1% 92.4% 375.6% -56.8% 73.1% -10.9% 41.6% -47.2% 2.3% -26.2% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 36
Study Permits 37
Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-25 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 38
Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-25 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 39
Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-25 0% 7,500,000% 15,000,000% 22,500,000% 30,000,000% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 40
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 312.5% 6.5% -8.3% 57.7% -33.5% -13.4% 4.4% -50.8% -33.6% 78.3% -54% -31.7% -59.6% -51.8% -49.4% -43.7% -58.9% -61.6% -54% -74.8% -43.6% -14.1% -30.2% -41.8% -24.6% -39.7% -47.5% -42.4% -57.4% -68% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 41
Study Permit Holders by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 23.8% 111.1% 64.2% 25.7% 43.5% 68.2% 38.4% -62.5% -21.4% -48.2% -45.0% -70.6% -42.7% -53.6% -53.0% -44.0% -43.4% -33.9% -63.0% -42.7% -35.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 42
Settlement Services 43
Settlement—By Service—2018-24 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 Information & Orientation Services Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Language Training Language Assessment Employment Related Services Community Connections Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 44
Settlement Services—2018-24 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10.3% 10.1% 10.2% 9.8% 9.1% 10.2% 10.3% 13.5% 14% 14.4% 15.2% 9.1% 13.9% 13.7% 24.8% 22.4% 21.7% 21.3% 26.8% 24.2% 25.1% 41% 42.1% 43.1% 42.9% 42.6% 41.6% 41.3% Information & Orientation Language Training Language Assessment Needs/Assets Assessment & Referrals Community Connections Employment Related Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery 45
Settlement Services Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 Information & Orientation Language Training Language Assessment Needs/Assets Assessment Community Connections Employment Related Resettlement Assistance -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 42.7% 72.4% 34.9% 33.1% 25.7% 33.6% 34.4% 8.9% 52.5% 33.6% 24.1% 22.6% 50.7% 25.6% -6.9% 9.4% 8.8% 2.6% -10.0% 18.1% 4.0% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 46
Settlement Services—By Region—2022-24 Top 25 Countries 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-2 2018-8 2019-2 2019-8 2020-2 2020-8 2021-2 2021-8 2022-2 2022-8 2023-2 2023-8 2024-2 2024-8 Asia Africa Americas Europe 47 Ukraine accounts for the sharp increase in Europe
Settlement Services by Citizenship Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 2028-24 -450% 0% 450% 900% 1,350% 1,800% Afghanistan Syria China Ukraine India Eritrea Philippines Pakistan SomaliaCongo, DRC 80.5% 101.3% 2.5% -38.2% 94.6% 8% 1,717.2% -17.9% -37.8% 853.4% 93.9% 45.8% 8.2% -3.9% 60.4% 9.2% 148.5% 1.6% -5.2% 46.9% 30.6% 22% 0.5% 0.7% 31.3% -2.1% -4.2% -3.2% -3.1% 12% 2024/23 2024/22 Full year 2024/18 48
Settlement Services Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 -45% -22.5% 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 33.5% 33% 30.8% 9.4% 44.3% -37% 84.2% 33.5% 33.0% 16.5% 24.1% 35.2% -9.0% 48.9% 8.9% 5.4% -1.1% 0.0% 9.3% -7.8% 8.5% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 49
Citizenship 50
Citizenship Applications—2018-24 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Number: Red line is quarterly moving average 51
New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-25 Numbers 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 52
New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-25 Percentage 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 53
Citizenship by Country of Birth Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -200% -50% 100% 250% 400% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France 140.6% -8.8% -19.1% 122.2% 199.8% 14.5% 43.5% 2.9% 350.4% 92.1% 65.9% -63.6% -65.3% -8.1% -31.4% -57.6% -23.2% -33.9% -21.2% -30.1% -8.6% -50.4% -58.5% -29.4% -27.1% -54.9% -45% -42.3% -32.2% -37% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 54
Approved Visitor Visas 55
Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-25 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 56
Visitor Visas—By Source Country Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -31% 64% 111.7% 100.3% -8% -42.6% -34.8% -3.4% 58% -45.6% -43.1% -53.5% -74.2% 22.7% -59.2% 30% -63.7% -71% -50.4% -4.2% -19.8% -22.5% -38.1% -18.8% -34.2% 15.1% -38.5% -58.2% -49.2% -10.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 2024/18 57
Research Questions 58 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre- and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
Annex 59
Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 60
Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 61
Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 62

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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - June 2025

  • 1. Canadian Immigration Tracker 2018 to June 2025 Working Draft - Key Slides 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 2025-1 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
  • 2. Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
  • 3. Q2—2025 Highlights • PR Admissions: Stable from 104,095 in Q1-2025 to 103,415 Q2-2025. Q2 year-over-year change (change from 2023 in parentheses): Economic - PNP -43.9% (-20.2%), Economic - Federal -4.1% (7.9%), Family -7.4% (-16.1%), Refugees -36.2% (-32.7%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, I am using a six-month time lag. Decrease from 174,330 in Q3-2024 to 110,535 Q4-2024. Q4-2024 year-over-year change (change from 2022): -34.1% (-22.9%) • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decrease from 28,683 in Q1-2025 (0 Arrima) to 11,162 Q2-2025 (0 Arrima). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -52.7% (-54.1%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decrease from 66,450 in Q1-2025 (63.8% of all PRs) to 59,915 Q2-2025 (57.9% of all PRs). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -14.9% (9.2%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Decrease from 171,245 in Q1-2025 to 124,260 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year (change from 2023): Agreements: -34.1% (-22.3%), Canadian Interests: -27.5% (-40.8%), Other IMP Participants -49.4% (-24.0%), Not stated -74.2% (-63.9%) • TRs/TFWP: Increase from 44,760 in Q1-2025 to 61,345 in Q2-2025 (seasonal). Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): Caregivers -2.9% (-2.9%), Agriculture -0.5% (-5.1%) and Other LMIA -17.1% (-15.5%). • TRs by occupation code: 2024 Full Year-over-year (D) change (change from 2022) 14.0% (157.4%) • Students: Decrease from 96,420 in Q1-2025 to 56,355 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): All -55.1% (-62.5%), post-secondary -63.1% (-71.0%) • Applications: Decrease from 74,740 in Q1-2025 to 69,155 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -45.8% (-71.0%) • Asylum Claimants: Stable from 28,880 in Q1-2025 to 28,930 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -37.4% (4.9%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc.): Decrease from 400 in Q1-2025 to 303 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -96.8% (-92.4%). • Settlement Services (2024): Increase from 2,922,275 in 2023 to 3,121,595 in 2024 (most recent data, services, not unique clients). 2024 year- over-year (change from 2022): 8.8% (33.6%). • Citizenship: Decrease from 87,765 in Q1-2025 to 64,039 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -37.8% (-30.6%). • Applications (2024): From 317,538 in 2023 to 356,733 in 2024. 2024 Year-over-year change (change from 2022): 12.3% (35.0%). • Visitor Visas: Increase from 273,990 in Q1-2025 to 294,205 in Q2-2025. Q2-2025 year-over-year change (change from 2023): -32.9% (-49.3%). 3
  • 4. Change Across Major Programs 2024 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline, 2024/2023 Comparison 4 PR Admissions-PNP PR Admissions-Fed TR2PR Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Asylum Claimants Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications (2023) New Citizens Settlement Services (2023) Visitor Visas -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% -19.9% -1.3% -23.8% -32.4% 17.5% 3.6% -14.7% 1.3% 6.1% 12.3% 10.6% 26.7% 110.8% 22.2% 46.4% 71.4% 217.7% 131.9% 186.2% 184.6% 36.2% 80.8% Change 2024/2018 Change 2024/2023
  • 5. January-June Comparisons 5 Q2-2023 Q2-2024 Q2-2025 Year over year 2 year change Levels Plan 2025 target (annual) % Annual target PR Admissions 262,575 255,015 207,510 -18.6% -21.0% 395,000 52.5% TR2PR 145,305 148,020 126,365 -14.6% -13.0% TRs-IMP 385,800 420,070 295,505 -29.7% -23.4% 285,750 103.4% TRs-TFWP - All 114,370 110,910 106,105 -4.3% -7.2% 82,000 129.4% TRs-TFWP - Non-seasonal 60,820 62,550 57,425 -8.2% -5.6% 45,100 127.3% Students 121,177 248,820 152,775 -38.6% 26.1% 305,900 49.9% Study permit applications 433,097 292,676 143,895 -50.8% -66.8% Asylum claimants 60,050 93,315 57,810 -38.0% -3.7% Citizenship 176,999 205,363 151,804 -26.1% -14.2% Visitor visas 955,555 868,234 568,195 -34.6% -40.5% Note: TFWP target excludes seasonal (agriculture) and permit extensions, have imputed 55 percent non-agriculture for LMIA target. Students will likely exceed targets given bulk of admissions in third quarter (typically between 40-45 percent for post-secondary). Highlighting: Change - Red, decrease of 25 percent or more, Orange, decrease of 10 percent or less, Percent of 2025 target - Green, Increase of 55 percent or more
  • 7. Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-25 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades Healthcare STEM Trades Transport Agriculture French Education General QC Arrima 7
  • 8. PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-25 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 8 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India (corrected from previous version)
  • 9. Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-25 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-Q1 2019-Q3 2021-Q1 2022-Q3 2024-Q1 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 9
  • 10. Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-25 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-Q1 2019-Q3 2021-Q1 2022-q3 2024-Q1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 10
  • 11. Admissions: PRs Canada Total Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -67.5% -45% -22.5% 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 68.7% 23.6% 36.2% 80.8% -32.7% -16.1% 7.9% -20.2% -36.2% -7.4% -4.1% -43.9% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 11
  • 12. Admissions: PNP Provinces Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -70% -35% 0% 35% 70% 105% 140% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 42.9% 93% 59.5% 50.1% 115.3% 127.9% -34.2% -10.4% -55.5% -20.8% 1.1% -1.5% -48.4% -55.1% -61.1% -47.6% -11.1% -46.9% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 12
  • 13. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% -25% 50% 125% 200% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK -27.1% 190.5% 60.8% 25.3% -14.8% 86% -35.9% 0.4% -8.1% 81.4% -22.5% 1.6% 105.7% -27% -24.1% -1.6% -64.3% -29.2% 6.4% -27.9% -20.1% -19.2% 35% -20.1% -26.6% -24.9% -60% -32.4% -27.6% -26.1% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 13
  • 14. Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-25 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 14
  • 15. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -125% 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 115.2% 115.4% 121.9% 377.9% 172.6% 134.9% 421.5% -18.1% 4.6% -34.9% -24.6% -10.9% 378.2% 13.9% -21.1% -42.5% -61.7% -52.8% -4.8% 97.6% -53.4% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 15
  • 16. Admissions: TRs to PRs Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 175.6% 133.4% 150.4% 184.6% 80.4% -2% -10.8% 16.6% 12.1% -31.8% -16.2% -13.5% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 16
  • 17. Two-Step Immigration TR2PR Percent Total Admission—2018-25 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 20% 40% 60% 80% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Percent TR2PR Total Admissions 17
  • 19. Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-25 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Airport Border Inland Other 19 Note: The “other claim of fi ce” surge in Q42022 likely re fl ected delays in classi fi cation, most of these were likely Inland
  • 20. Asylum Claimants: Irregular Arrivals RCMP Interceptions as Percent Total Asylum Claimants—2018-25 0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Percent Claimants Irregular Arrivals Asylum Claimants 20
  • 21. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% Airport Border Inland 326.3% -25.5% 512.3% 42.3% 45.1% -68.6% -31% 81.6% -79.6% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 21
  • 22. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti Congo DRC 131.1% 556.5% 55.6% 116.8% 177.2% 69.3% 49.5% 171.4% 179.7% 616.5% -6.5% 506.9% -79.6% 162.8% 3% -43.2% 99.4% 32.1% -81.5% 91.4% -36.8% 173.7% -52.5% 10.8% -37.7% -54% -44.9% 6.6% -22.7% -54.3% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 22 Note: USA no longer in top 25
  • 23. Asylum Claimants: Provinces 2018-25 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 ON QC BC AB MB SK Atlantic 23
  • 24. Asylum Claimants: Provinces Change Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% ON QC BC AB MB SK Atlantic Untitled 1 326.3% -25.5% 512.3% 223.1% 328.6% 255% 80.9% 83.7% -10.9% 0.6% -37.3% 75% 25% -23.7% -22.7% 12.4% -34.3% -46.7% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 24
  • 26. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-25 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 26
  • 27. Temporary Residents by Program Canada Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 396.5% 27.7% -52.1% 114.4% -31.6% -17.1% -0.5% -2.9% -40.8% -22.3% -17.1% -0.5% -2.9% -27.5% -34.1% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 27
  • 28. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-25 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 28
  • 29. IMP by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan 12.5% 2.3% 66.2% -39% -12.8% 31.9% 21.8% 6.3% -24.6% 280.2% -2.5% -37.4% 4.6% -34.6% 6.3% 10.8% -46% -38.8% 0.3% -54.3% -8.6% -20.1% -22.6% -21.9% -2.2% 0.4% -28.4% -10% -3.3% -32% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 29
  • 30. IMP by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 133.1% 229.8% 132.4% 196.1% 195.2% 123.8% 258.5% -22.2% 6.6% -38% -36.1% -43.9% -20.8% -39.8% -24.8% -27.2% -32.2% -34% -30.5% -28.7% -37.6% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 30
  • 31. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-25 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 31
  • 32. TFWP by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -125% 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 347.3% 400.5% 36.1% -25.4% -13.4% 445.6% 158.7% 113.8% 0.5% 49.1% -5.4% -26.3% -10.5% -3.8% -52.7% 6.2% -31.8% 13.8% -8.7% -5.2% -9.2% -47.1% -28.4% -3.8% -38.4% -20.4% -30.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 32
  • 33. TFWP by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 82% 253.7% 318.5% 313.6% 72.2% 223.6% 148% -10.1% -12.7% 33.6% -2.9% -1.4% -15.1% -20.6% -3.6% -22.6% -8.3% -21.6% -4.2% -9% -15.7% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 33
  • 34. TFWP by NOC Level—2018-24 Percentage 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 A (0, 1) B (2, 3) C (4,5) D (6,7) 34
  • 35. TFWP by NOC Sector—2018-24 Percentage 30% 60% 90% 120% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 Management Business & Admin Sciences Health Education & Govt Arts culture & Sport Sales & service Trades, transport Natural resources, agriculture Manufacturing & utilities 35
  • 36. TFWP by NOC Level Full-Year Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, 2024/18 -350% 0% 350% 700% 1,050% 1,400% A (0, 1) B (2, 3) C (4,5) D (6,7) 1,322.1% -43.1% 375.1% 92.4% 375.6% -56.8% 73.1% -10.9% 41.6% -47.2% 2.3% -26.2% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 36
  • 38. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-25 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 38
  • 39. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-25 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 39
  • 40. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-25 0% 7,500,000% 15,000,000% 22,500,000% 30,000,000% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 40
  • 41. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 312.5% 6.5% -8.3% 57.7% -33.5% -13.4% 4.4% -50.8% -33.6% 78.3% -54% -31.7% -59.6% -51.8% -49.4% -43.7% -58.9% -61.6% -54% -74.8% -43.6% -14.1% -30.2% -41.8% -24.6% -39.7% -47.5% -42.4% -57.4% -68% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 41
  • 42. Study Permit Holders by Province Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 23.8% 111.1% 64.2% 25.7% 43.5% 68.2% 38.4% -62.5% -21.4% -48.2% -45.0% -70.6% -42.7% -53.6% -53.0% -44.0% -43.4% -33.9% -63.0% -42.7% -35.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 42
  • 44. Settlement—By Service—2018-24 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1 2024-7 Information & Orientation Services Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Language Training Language Assessment Employment Related Services Community Connections Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 44
  • 45. Settlement Services—2018-24 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10.3% 10.1% 10.2% 9.8% 9.1% 10.2% 10.3% 13.5% 14% 14.4% 15.2% 9.1% 13.9% 13.7% 24.8% 22.4% 21.7% 21.3% 26.8% 24.2% 25.1% 41% 42.1% 43.1% 42.9% 42.6% 41.6% 41.3% Information & Orientation Language Training Language Assessment Needs/Assets Assessment & Referrals Community Connections Employment Related Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery 45
  • 46. Settlement Services Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 Information & Orientation Language Training Language Assessment Needs/Assets Assessment Community Connections Employment Related Resettlement Assistance -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 42.7% 72.4% 34.9% 33.1% 25.7% 33.6% 34.4% 8.9% 52.5% 33.6% 24.1% 22.6% 50.7% 25.6% -6.9% 9.4% 8.8% 2.6% -10.0% 18.1% 4.0% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 46
  • 47. Settlement Services—By Region—2022-24 Top 25 Countries 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-2 2018-8 2019-2 2019-8 2020-2 2020-8 2021-2 2021-8 2022-2 2022-8 2023-2 2023-8 2024-2 2024-8 Asia Africa Americas Europe 47 Ukraine accounts for the sharp increase in Europe
  • 48. Settlement Services by Citizenship Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 2028-24 -450% 0% 450% 900% 1,350% 1,800% Afghanistan Syria China Ukraine India Eritrea Philippines Pakistan SomaliaCongo, DRC 80.5% 101.3% 2.5% -38.2% 94.6% 8% 1,717.2% -17.9% -37.8% 853.4% 93.9% 45.8% 8.2% -3.9% 60.4% 9.2% 148.5% 1.6% -5.2% 46.9% 30.6% 22% 0.5% 0.7% 31.3% -2.1% -4.2% -3.2% -3.1% 12% 2024/23 2024/22 Full year 2024/18 48
  • 49. Settlement Services Annual Comparisons: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2024/18 -45% -22.5% 0% 22.5% 45% 67.5% 90% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 33.5% 33% 30.8% 9.4% 44.3% -37% 84.2% 33.5% 33.0% 16.5% 24.1% 35.2% -9.0% 48.9% 8.9% 5.4% -1.1% 0.0% 9.3% -7.8% 8.5% 2024/23 2024/22 2024/18 49
  • 51. Citizenship Applications—2018-24 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Number: Red line is quarterly moving average 51
  • 52. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-25 Numbers 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 52
  • 53. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-25 Percentage 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 53
  • 54. Citizenship by Country of Birth Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 -200% -50% 100% 250% 400% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France 140.6% -8.8% -19.1% 122.2% 199.8% 14.5% 43.5% 2.9% 350.4% 92.1% 65.9% -63.6% -65.3% -8.1% -31.4% -57.6% -23.2% -33.9% -21.2% -30.1% -8.6% -50.4% -58.5% -29.4% -27.1% -54.9% -45% -42.3% -32.2% -37% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 Full year 2024/18 54
  • 56. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-25 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 2018-Q1 2018-Q4 2019-Q3 2020-Q2 2021-Q1 2021-Q4 2022-Q3 2023-Q2 2024-Q1 2024-Q4 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 56
  • 57. Visitor Visas—By Source Country Q2 Comparison: 2025/24, 2025/23, Full year 2024/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -31% 64% 111.7% 100.3% -8% -42.6% -34.8% -3.4% 58% -45.6% -43.1% -53.5% -74.2% 22.7% -59.2% 30% -63.7% -71% -50.4% -4.2% -19.8% -22.5% -38.1% -18.8% -34.2% 15.1% -38.5% -58.2% -49.2% -10.8% Q2 2025/24 Q2 2025/23 2024/18 57
  • 58. Research Questions 58 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre- and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
  • 60. Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 60
  • 61. Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 61
  • 62. Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 62