This document presents a study on derivative threshold actuation for single-phase wormhole detection in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), aiming to reduce false alarm rates during intrusion detection. The paper details various methodologies used for traffic prediction and discusses a novel algorithm based on the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model for accurate traffic forecasting. It concludes with an emphasis on selecting optimal thresholds for identifying anomalies and enhancing the effectiveness of MANET routing protocols against wormhole attacks.