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Design Thinking for More Innovative and Effective Foresight

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WorldFuture2015

The document outlines a master class on using design thinking to become a more innovative and effective futurist. It discusses seven steps for thinking about the future, including laying the foundation with research, challenging assumptions, telling stories through scenarios, and shaping the future. The class agenda includes learning design thinking techniques like empathetic interviewing and prototyping scenarios, then refining the scenarios based on testing and feedback. The goal is for participants to gain skills in strategizing and planning for alternative futures.

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HOW DESIGN THINKING CAN MAKE YOU A MORE INNOVATIVE AND EFFECTIVE FUTURIST (SELECTED EXTRACTS FROM MASTER CLASS) San Francisco World Futures Society Master Class Jim Burke July 24, 2015 Reviewed/Approved under export control compliance “EGL-CR00388”
AGENDA Time Activity 8:00-8:20 §  Overview 8:20-9:00 §  Think about the future in Seven Steps 9:00-9:45 §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews 9:45-10:00 §  Break 10:00-11:15 §  Interviews (Continued) §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic 11:15-12:00 §  Create scenario as prototype 12:00-12:45 §  Lunch/Break time—on own 12:45-1:00 §  Morning recap 1:00-2:00 §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements 2:00-2:15 §  Break 2:15-3:00 §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test 3:00-3:30 §  Wrap up and Evaluation 2
Innovation Design Futures 3
OUR PROPOSED ROLES TODAY Yours •  Leader •  Cooperative, innovative thinker •  Strategic planner •  Decision maker •  Bold scout on an expedition into design and the future •  Collaborative, Interactive Student & Teacher Will you give you and me permission to act in those roles? Mine •  Interactive expedition guide •  Observer •  Teacher and Student •  Time horizon watcher •  Scribe and reporter to you 4
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 5
SEVEN STEPS TO THE FUTURE 1.  Lay the Foundation 2.  Change the Frame 3.  Challenge the Experts 4.  Tell Stories 5.  Live and Work in the Future 6.  Walk Back to Today 7.  Shape the Future 6
Research, synthesize, analyze, baseline STEP 1: LAYING THE FOUNDATION •  Determine your client’s needs •  Leverage quality futures work •  Avoid duplication of effort •  Identify historic trends, attractors, and barriers •  Dig deep into specific topics 7
STEEP Identify, collect and analyze information Categorize stakeholder interests Identify implications Understand relationships SOCIAL TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT POLITICAL 8
ANALYZE TRENDS AS POTENTIAL CONVERGENTS Plan/Trend Social Technical Environmental Economic Political Organizational Description Vision/Goals/ Objectives Organizational Needs Stakeholder Desires Early Warning Monitoring Can be used to identify forces that affect needs categories Replace with your own needs for studying the future 9
STEP 2: CHANGE THE FRAME •  Reveal client biases 
 and assumptions about future •  Organizational •  Technological •  Values •  Establish system interrelationships •  Move into the future Open, broaden, challenge, model 10 Source: World Bank
STEP 3: CHALLENGE THE EXPERTS •  Expert ≠ Futurist •  Challenge expert assumptions/ biases •  Engage real world complexities •  Paint the range of futures TRANSITION TO UCAVS PERMITS RETOOLING FOR ROBOTIC PRODUCTION LARG E CO NSTRUCTIO N FULLY AUTO M ATED Interviews, workshops, surveys "There will never be a bigger plane built.” - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 10-passenger 247 11
STEP 4: TELL STORIES •  Develop a range of scenarios using STEEP •  Radical success/failure •  Probable, preferred, undesired •  Illustrative •  Explore wild cards (+/-) Context, relations, immersion hitchBOT and David Harris Smith, July 16, 2015, Salem, Mass. 12
STEP 5: LIVE AND WORK IN THE FUTURE •  Work through the implications and impacts of each scenario •  Highlight possible unintended consequences (+/-) •  Select preferred future (your vision) Implications, impacts, vision 13
STEP 6: WALK BACK TO TODAY •  Backcast a strategy and roadmap to your preferred future •  Don’t abandon your client (or yourself) in the future •  Futures investment is wasted if you don’t“walk back to today” Milestones, indicators, early warning signals 14 Space Technology and Exploration Directorate Roadmap
BE READY TO ANSWER: This is great stuff in 2025, but what do I do about it this afternoon? 15
STEP 7: SHAPE THE FUTURE •  Keep the momentum •  What should be 
 done today? •  Reposition, plan, change, invest •  Monitor the future 
 as it unfolds •  Process, system, or Center •  Think big, start small, 
 scale •  Early warning watch on scenarios Act, implement, invest, monitor, build Actionable Futures 16
Early Warning and Action SENSE Scanning the globe to sense clues to the future ANALYZE Understanding how the future could affect clients SHAPE Setting the foundation to arm clients to influence the future 17
AREAS OF INTEREST Control Influence Monitor Scan • Watch and explore in the scan area • Actions increase as signals grow in intensity • Outside scan are unknown unknowns Probe Explore 18
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 19
DESIGN THINKING STEPS Diving deep to really understand and meet client needs Detect insights into human-centered problems Craft initial solutions—quickly created, tested, refined and produced 20
FORESIGHT AND DT
 DT answers three fundamental questions—What is: 21 desirable? feasible? viable? human perspective technical viewpoint business reality
FORESIGHT AND DT
 Foresight answers three fundamental questions— What could be: 22 desirable? feasible? viable? social trends technical trends business trends
NON-LINEAR, MESSY, BUT DISCIPLINED 23
GO WIDE, GO NARROW 24 Be inclusive Be exclusive Be inclusive Be exclusive Let’s spend some time here
“INNOVATION WITHOUT EMOTION IS UNINTERESTING” The Designful Company, Marty Neumeier 25
BE AN EMPATHETIC INTERVIEWER 26 •  You are interviewing for understanding •  Not for sales, marketing, or compliance 26 desirable? feasible? viable? human perspective technical viewpoint business reality • Start here • Go under the casual statements
5 WHYS Client wanted a study of the future of Geographical Information Systems, Global Positioning Systems, and Remote Sensing 5 Whys 1.  Understand how these three related to each other 2.  Identify and understand trends and forces affecting these 3.  See how the systems could be hacked, manipulated or misused 4.  Understand ways to understand the implications 5.  Justify funding to prevent or mitigate against the manipulations 27 Never asked about my needs
SOME APPROACHES 28 •  Why questions •  Weather conditions questions •  And: •  Short questions (no yes/no), •  Attentive listening •  No arguing •  Acceptance of silence while the interviewee thinks •  Capturing everything (interviewer and a recorder) •  Ensuring anonymity
SOME POTENTIAL FRAMING QUESTIONS 29 •  Why is the future important to you? •  How do you plan for the future? •  When you think about the future, what kinds of information do you need? •  How have you used information like this? •  Tell me a story about a time you were surprised by something important that happened and affected you. •  How could you have known this surprise was coming? •  How did this surprise make you feel? •  So, in looking at the future, what sorts of things do you think you need to know?
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 30
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 31
MINE THE ANSWERS 32 •  What jobs need to be done? •  What does client want to do with insights of the future? •  What are some key unknowns? •  What are some recurring patterns in the answers? •  What stories of the future would benefit the client?
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 33
FOR WHOM ARE WE DESIGNING AND FORESEEING? •  Personas help focus on the individual •  Creating a story for the story •  Generally have multiple personas for a project 34
WHY SCENARIOS? •  Identify the factors needed for better decisions •  To reframe to see new patterns •  To recognize new combinations and options (like innovation) 35
SCENARIOS ARE •  Stories of the future •  Not predictions •  Future context for future decisions 36
SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING •  A story about the future •  May be useful for forecasting •  Most utility when scenarios span alternative futures •  Engages stakeholders in dialogue and decisions 37
SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING •  Two types •  Descriptive—integration and extrapolation of trends •  What “will” be •  Prescriptive—extrapolation of desires •  What you want it to be •  Two frameworks •  Historical •  Synthetic •  Many possible formats 38
PROTOTYPE Make something tangible that clients can interact with or use to understand how the future might unfold. •  Low cost, easy to make—demonstrates ideas •  Rudimentary storyboards with cartoons 39
PROTOTYPE •  Could be as simple as grouping post-it notes to capture ideas into scenario themes •  Group them by: •  STEEP category •  Major drivers, like energy costs or demographics •  Details can be specific or metaphorical 40
USING YOUR RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS 41 •  Empathetic interviewing •  Persona construction •  Design challenge—scenario topic •  127 Trends Please build your prototype scenario
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 42
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Break §  Interviews §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 43
SNAPSHOT SUMMARY Foresight is the art of: •  Understanding your own assumptions and biases •  Being willing to look beyond those •  Stepping outside your comfort zones •  Collecting trends information •  Looking for weak signals and clues •  Understanding through stories •  Pulling out the implications •  Identifying action for today 44
SNAPSHOT SUMMARY Design Thinking aids Foresight: •  By helping to better understand client needs through empathetic interviewing and listening—human-centered •  Helps overcome foresight practitioner biases •  Refines client needs •  Offers low-cost, quick ways to get feedback and align solutions with needs 45
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 46
STRESS TEST 47 •  To prevent infatuation—we often fall in love with our products •  To make sure we are addressing the real needs—we often let our biases get in the way •  To save resources—fail early, fail cheaply
CONSIDER YES-AND •  When a team member starts to criticize, suggest the person use the improv technique of “yes-and,” rather than “yes-but” •  For example: The person who downgrades the idea of using a smartphone to create architecture designs (“yes, but it is too small”) is motivated to say, “Yes and it could wirelessly connect to a 3-d printer to see the architecture idea quickly and in 3-d!” 48
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 49
AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Break §  Interviews §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 50
SUMMARY
 51 Combining traditional futures techniques with complementary, creative DT: •  Provides tools for more fidelity in understanding client desires and needs •  Enables futurists to craft more feasible solutions and designing more viable business models at reduced costs •  Allows fast feedback from clients
CONTACT INFORMATION Jim Burke burkeje@verizon.net @burkejames 703-585-9328 52
REFERENCES AND RESOURCES •  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDEO •  Korn, Melissa and Silverman, R.E., “Forget B-School, D-School Is Hot: Design Thinking' Concept Gains Traction as More Programs Offer the Problem-Solving Courses,” Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2012 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303506404577446832178537716, accessed 14/3/15 •  http://www.ideo.com/about/ About IDEO, What We Do, accessed 14/3/15 •  World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society and Behavior, Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC by 3.0 IGO, pp. 62-75. •  Coates, J., “How to Do a Futures Study,” undated slide, original provided to author by Coates in January 2000; also available at www.josephcoates.com •  For example, Baumgartner, Jeffrey “Brainstorming Is Not Very Creative,” http://www.jpb.com/creative/bstormbad.php, undated, accessed 14/3/15 •  Experience Design: A Framework for Integrating Brand, Experience and Value, Patrick Newberry and Kevin Farnham •  The Service Innovation Handbook Lucy Kimbell •  The Tao Of Innovation Teng-Kee Tan, Hsien Seow, Sue Tan Toyofuku •  Change by Design, Tim Brown •  The Designful Company Marty Neumeier •  A Fine Line Hartmut Esslinger •  The Design Of Business, Roger Martin •  The Opposable Mind, Roger Martin •  Designing for the Digital Age, Kim Goodwin •  Designing Interactions, Bill Moggridge •  Design Futures in Action, Kelliher and Byrne •  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases •  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709113201.htm, Graphene gets competition as a semiconductor: Black arsenic-phosphorus •  http://www.gilcommunity.com/blog/does-road-manufacturing-40-begin-here/, Does the Road to Manufacturing 4.0 Begin Here? •  http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/techtank/posts/2015/06/9-future-of-iot-part-2? cid=00900015020089101US0001-07101&imm_mid=0d527e&cmp=em-iot-na-na-newsltr_20150716, Sketching out the Internet of Things trendline, Phillip N. Howard •  2014 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report, James G. McGann •  Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis, International Actuarial Association, July 2013, http://r.search.yahoo.com/ _ylt=A0LEVjTywq9V8AIAaU4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTE0a3B2azdoBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZYVUkzNV8xBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/ RE=1437610867/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fblue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev%3a443%2fhttp%2fwww.actuaries.org%2fCTTEES_SOLV%2fDocuments%2fStressTestingPaper.pdf/RK=0/ RS=DUqna29ccbUsDqDp1f.pnJa1igo- •  ttp://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1#ixzz3gduNAxEm •  http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news/2015/07/hitchhiking-robot-embarks-coast-coast-us-tour? et_cid=4687897&et_rid=745650811&location=top •  Oak tree, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/d/diannehope/03/l/142728109145mx9.jpg •  Acorn, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/g/gracey/preview/fldr_2004_09_21/file000908748350.jpg •  3 people conversing, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/j/Jusben/10/l/13495898363lfpz.jpg •  STED roadmap, http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/sted-roadmap.jpg •  Framing image, World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO •  Funeral, http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=40990&picture=my-grandfather-funeral •  Crowd image, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/s/SDRandCo/05/l/14008730575r9lx.jpg 53
REFERENCES AND RESOURCES •  Woman in mirror, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/p/placardmoncoeur/02/l/13932800226la8x.jpg 54

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Design Thinking for More Innovative and Effective Foresight

  • 1. HOW DESIGN THINKING CAN MAKE YOU A MORE INNOVATIVE AND EFFECTIVE FUTURIST (SELECTED EXTRACTS FROM MASTER CLASS) San Francisco World Futures Society Master Class Jim Burke July 24, 2015 Reviewed/Approved under export control compliance “EGL-CR00388”
  • 2. AGENDA Time Activity 8:00-8:20 §  Overview 8:20-9:00 §  Think about the future in Seven Steps 9:00-9:45 §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews 9:45-10:00 §  Break 10:00-11:15 §  Interviews (Continued) §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic 11:15-12:00 §  Create scenario as prototype 12:00-12:45 §  Lunch/Break time—on own 12:45-1:00 §  Morning recap 1:00-2:00 §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements 2:00-2:15 §  Break 2:15-3:00 §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test 3:00-3:30 §  Wrap up and Evaluation 2
  • 4. OUR PROPOSED ROLES TODAY Yours •  Leader •  Cooperative, innovative thinker •  Strategic planner •  Decision maker •  Bold scout on an expedition into design and the future •  Collaborative, Interactive Student & Teacher Will you give you and me permission to act in those roles? Mine •  Interactive expedition guide •  Observer •  Teacher and Student •  Time horizon watcher •  Scribe and reporter to you 4
  • 5. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 5
  • 6. SEVEN STEPS TO THE FUTURE 1.  Lay the Foundation 2.  Change the Frame 3.  Challenge the Experts 4.  Tell Stories 5.  Live and Work in the Future 6.  Walk Back to Today 7.  Shape the Future 6
  • 7. Research, synthesize, analyze, baseline STEP 1: LAYING THE FOUNDATION •  Determine your client’s needs •  Leverage quality futures work •  Avoid duplication of effort •  Identify historic trends, attractors, and barriers •  Dig deep into specific topics 7
  • 8. STEEP Identify, collect and analyze information Categorize stakeholder interests Identify implications Understand relationships SOCIAL TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT POLITICAL 8
  • 9. ANALYZE TRENDS AS POTENTIAL CONVERGENTS Plan/Trend Social Technical Environmental Economic Political Organizational Description Vision/Goals/ Objectives Organizational Needs Stakeholder Desires Early Warning Monitoring Can be used to identify forces that affect needs categories Replace with your own needs for studying the future 9
  • 10. STEP 2: CHANGE THE FRAME •  Reveal client biases 
 and assumptions about future •  Organizational •  Technological •  Values •  Establish system interrelationships •  Move into the future Open, broaden, challenge, model 10 Source: World Bank
  • 11. STEP 3: CHALLENGE THE EXPERTS •  Expert ≠ Futurist •  Challenge expert assumptions/ biases •  Engage real world complexities •  Paint the range of futures TRANSITION TO UCAVS PERMITS RETOOLING FOR ROBOTIC PRODUCTION LARG E CO NSTRUCTIO N FULLY AUTO M ATED Interviews, workshops, surveys "There will never be a bigger plane built.” - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 10-passenger 247 11
  • 12. STEP 4: TELL STORIES •  Develop a range of scenarios using STEEP •  Radical success/failure •  Probable, preferred, undesired •  Illustrative •  Explore wild cards (+/-) Context, relations, immersion hitchBOT and David Harris Smith, July 16, 2015, Salem, Mass. 12
  • 13. STEP 5: LIVE AND WORK IN THE FUTURE •  Work through the implications and impacts of each scenario •  Highlight possible unintended consequences (+/-) •  Select preferred future (your vision) Implications, impacts, vision 13
  • 14. STEP 6: WALK BACK TO TODAY •  Backcast a strategy and roadmap to your preferred future •  Don’t abandon your client (or yourself) in the future •  Futures investment is wasted if you don’t“walk back to today” Milestones, indicators, early warning signals 14 Space Technology and Exploration Directorate Roadmap
  • 15. BE READY TO ANSWER: This is great stuff in 2025, but what do I do about it this afternoon? 15
  • 16. STEP 7: SHAPE THE FUTURE •  Keep the momentum •  What should be 
 done today? •  Reposition, plan, change, invest •  Monitor the future 
 as it unfolds •  Process, system, or Center •  Think big, start small, 
 scale •  Early warning watch on scenarios Act, implement, invest, monitor, build Actionable Futures 16
  • 17. Early Warning and Action SENSE Scanning the globe to sense clues to the future ANALYZE Understanding how the future could affect clients SHAPE Setting the foundation to arm clients to influence the future 17
  • 18. AREAS OF INTEREST Control Influence Monitor Scan • Watch and explore in the scan area • Actions increase as signals grow in intensity • Outside scan are unknown unknowns Probe Explore 18
  • 19. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 19
  • 20. DESIGN THINKING STEPS Diving deep to really understand and meet client needs Detect insights into human-centered problems Craft initial solutions—quickly created, tested, refined and produced 20
  • 21. FORESIGHT AND DT
 DT answers three fundamental questions—What is: 21 desirable? feasible? viable? human perspective technical viewpoint business reality
  • 22. FORESIGHT AND DT
 Foresight answers three fundamental questions— What could be: 22 desirable? feasible? viable? social trends technical trends business trends
  • 23. NON-LINEAR, MESSY, BUT DISCIPLINED 23
  • 24. GO WIDE, GO NARROW 24 Be inclusive Be exclusive Be inclusive Be exclusive Let’s spend some time here
  • 25. “INNOVATION WITHOUT EMOTION IS UNINTERESTING” The Designful Company, Marty Neumeier 25
  • 26. BE AN EMPATHETIC INTERVIEWER 26 •  You are interviewing for understanding •  Not for sales, marketing, or compliance 26 desirable? feasible? viable? human perspective technical viewpoint business reality • Start here • Go under the casual statements
  • 27. 5 WHYS Client wanted a study of the future of Geographical Information Systems, Global Positioning Systems, and Remote Sensing 5 Whys 1.  Understand how these three related to each other 2.  Identify and understand trends and forces affecting these 3.  See how the systems could be hacked, manipulated or misused 4.  Understand ways to understand the implications 5.  Justify funding to prevent or mitigate against the manipulations 27 Never asked about my needs
  • 28. SOME APPROACHES 28 •  Why questions •  Weather conditions questions •  And: •  Short questions (no yes/no), •  Attentive listening •  No arguing •  Acceptance of silence while the interviewee thinks •  Capturing everything (interviewer and a recorder) •  Ensuring anonymity
  • 29. SOME POTENTIAL FRAMING QUESTIONS 29 •  Why is the future important to you? •  How do you plan for the future? •  When you think about the future, what kinds of information do you need? •  How have you used information like this? •  Tell me a story about a time you were surprised by something important that happened and affected you. •  How could you have known this surprise was coming? •  How did this surprise make you feel? •  So, in looking at the future, what sorts of things do you think you need to know?
  • 30. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 30
  • 31. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 31
  • 32. MINE THE ANSWERS 32 •  What jobs need to be done? •  What does client want to do with insights of the future? •  What are some key unknowns? •  What are some recurring patterns in the answers? •  What stories of the future would benefit the client?
  • 33. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 33
  • 34. FOR WHOM ARE WE DESIGNING AND FORESEEING? •  Personas help focus on the individual •  Creating a story for the story •  Generally have multiple personas for a project 34
  • 35. WHY SCENARIOS? •  Identify the factors needed for better decisions •  To reframe to see new patterns •  To recognize new combinations and options (like innovation) 35
  • 36. SCENARIOS ARE •  Stories of the future •  Not predictions •  Future context for future decisions 36
  • 37. SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING •  A story about the future •  May be useful for forecasting •  Most utility when scenarios span alternative futures •  Engages stakeholders in dialogue and decisions 37
  • 38. SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING •  Two types •  Descriptive—integration and extrapolation of trends •  What “will” be •  Prescriptive—extrapolation of desires •  What you want it to be •  Two frameworks •  Historical •  Synthetic •  Many possible formats 38
  • 39. PROTOTYPE Make something tangible that clients can interact with or use to understand how the future might unfold. •  Low cost, easy to make—demonstrates ideas •  Rudimentary storyboards with cartoons 39
  • 40. PROTOTYPE •  Could be as simple as grouping post-it notes to capture ideas into scenario themes •  Group them by: •  STEEP category •  Major drivers, like energy costs or demographics •  Details can be specific or metaphorical 40
  • 41. USING YOUR RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS 41 •  Empathetic interviewing •  Persona construction •  Design challenge—scenario topic •  127 Trends Please build your prototype scenario
  • 42. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 42
  • 43. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Break §  Interviews §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 43
  • 44. SNAPSHOT SUMMARY Foresight is the art of: •  Understanding your own assumptions and biases •  Being willing to look beyond those •  Stepping outside your comfort zones •  Collecting trends information •  Looking for weak signals and clues •  Understanding through stories •  Pulling out the implications •  Identifying action for today 44
  • 45. SNAPSHOT SUMMARY Design Thinking aids Foresight: •  By helping to better understand client needs through empathetic interviewing and listening—human-centered •  Helps overcome foresight practitioner biases •  Refines client needs •  Offers low-cost, quick ways to get feedback and align solutions with needs 45
  • 46. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 46
  • 47. STRESS TEST 47 •  To prevent infatuation—we often fall in love with our products •  To make sure we are addressing the real needs—we often let our biases get in the way •  To save resources—fail early, fail cheaply
  • 48. CONSIDER YES-AND •  When a team member starts to criticize, suggest the person use the improv technique of “yes-and,” rather than “yes-but” •  For example: The person who downgrades the idea of using a smartphone to create architecture designs (“yes, but it is too small”) is motivated to say, “Yes and it could wirelessly connect to a 3-d printer to see the architecture idea quickly and in 3-d!” 48
  • 49. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Interviews §  Break §  Interviews §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 49
  • 50. AGENDA Activity §  Overview §  Think about the future in Seven Steps §  Five Steps of Design Thinking §  Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic §  Break §  Interviews §  Create scenario as prototype §  Lunch/Break time—on own §  Morning recap §  Share their prototype scenarios §  “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements §  Break §  Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test §  Conduct a “final” test §  Wrap up and Evaluation 50
  • 51. SUMMARY
 51 Combining traditional futures techniques with complementary, creative DT: •  Provides tools for more fidelity in understanding client desires and needs •  Enables futurists to craft more feasible solutions and designing more viable business models at reduced costs •  Allows fast feedback from clients
  • 53. REFERENCES AND RESOURCES •  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDEO •  Korn, Melissa and Silverman, R.E., “Forget B-School, D-School Is Hot: Design Thinking' Concept Gains Traction as More Programs Offer the Problem-Solving Courses,” Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2012 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303506404577446832178537716, accessed 14/3/15 •  http://www.ideo.com/about/ About IDEO, What We Do, accessed 14/3/15 •  World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society and Behavior, Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC by 3.0 IGO, pp. 62-75. •  Coates, J., “How to Do a Futures Study,” undated slide, original provided to author by Coates in January 2000; also available at www.josephcoates.com •  For example, Baumgartner, Jeffrey “Brainstorming Is Not Very Creative,” http://www.jpb.com/creative/bstormbad.php, undated, accessed 14/3/15 •  Experience Design: A Framework for Integrating Brand, Experience and Value, Patrick Newberry and Kevin Farnham •  The Service Innovation Handbook Lucy Kimbell •  The Tao Of Innovation Teng-Kee Tan, Hsien Seow, Sue Tan Toyofuku •  Change by Design, Tim Brown •  The Designful Company Marty Neumeier •  A Fine Line Hartmut Esslinger •  The Design Of Business, Roger Martin •  The Opposable Mind, Roger Martin •  Designing for the Digital Age, Kim Goodwin •  Designing Interactions, Bill Moggridge •  Design Futures in Action, Kelliher and Byrne •  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases •  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709113201.htm, Graphene gets competition as a semiconductor: Black arsenic-phosphorus •  http://www.gilcommunity.com/blog/does-road-manufacturing-40-begin-here/, Does the Road to Manufacturing 4.0 Begin Here? •  http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/techtank/posts/2015/06/9-future-of-iot-part-2? cid=00900015020089101US0001-07101&imm_mid=0d527e&cmp=em-iot-na-na-newsltr_20150716, Sketching out the Internet of Things trendline, Phillip N. Howard •  2014 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report, James G. McGann •  Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis, International Actuarial Association, July 2013, http://r.search.yahoo.com/ _ylt=A0LEVjTywq9V8AIAaU4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTE0a3B2azdoBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZYVUkzNV8xBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/ RE=1437610867/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fblue-sea-697d.quartiers047.workers.dev%3a443%2fhttp%2fwww.actuaries.org%2fCTTEES_SOLV%2fDocuments%2fStressTestingPaper.pdf/RK=0/ RS=DUqna29ccbUsDqDp1f.pnJa1igo- •  ttp://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1#ixzz3gduNAxEm •  http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news/2015/07/hitchhiking-robot-embarks-coast-coast-us-tour? et_cid=4687897&et_rid=745650811&location=top •  Oak tree, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/d/diannehope/03/l/142728109145mx9.jpg •  Acorn, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/g/gracey/preview/fldr_2004_09_21/file000908748350.jpg •  3 people conversing, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/j/Jusben/10/l/13495898363lfpz.jpg •  STED roadmap, http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/sted-roadmap.jpg •  Framing image, World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO •  Funeral, http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=40990&picture=my-grandfather-funeral •  Crowd image, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/s/SDRandCo/05/l/14008730575r9lx.jpg 53
  • 54. REFERENCES AND RESOURCES •  Woman in mirror, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/p/placardmoncoeur/02/l/13932800226la8x.jpg 54