The Dynamic Epidemiology of
        Streptococcus pneumoniae.
                    Joshua P. Metlay, MD, PhD
              Division of General Internal Medicine
                    University of Pennsylvania

                  Presented at the 41st Annual Symposium
“Global Movement of Infectious Pathogens and Improved Laboratory Detection”
           Eastern PA Branch-American Society for Microbiology
                            November 17, 2011
                 Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia
Outline
• Introduction to pneumococcal disease
• Secular trends
   –Antimicrobial drug resistance
    (macrolides)
   –Serotype replacement
• Geographic patterns
Survival from pneumococcal bacteremia
               1952-1962
Penicillin Resistance in S. pneumoniae
          United States 1979-2000

                                               Sentinel              ABCs




1979-1994: CDC Sentinel Surveillance Network
1995-2002: CDC Active Bacterial Core Surveillance (ABCs) /Emerging Infections Program
The Delaware Valley Hospital Network

• Hospital based reporting of cases of
  pneumococcal bacteremia
• Established in 2001
• Centralized susceptibility testing
• 48 hospitals in the 5 county region of
  Southeastern Pennsylvania
• 3.7 million population
• 400 annual cases
Participating hospitals in the Delaware
                Valley




                Emerging Infectious Diseases 2001
Risk Factors for Pneumococcal
                Bacteremia
Characteristic      Cases per 100,000     95% CI
Age
 18-49                    8.3            7.5 – 9.2
 50-64                    15.9          14.4 – 17.6
 65-79                    26.4          26.4 – 29.5
 80+                      59.4           52.7 – 67
Race
 White                    13.7          12.9 – 14.7
 African American         26.4          24.2 – 28.9
Time Trends
Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine

• Seven valent conjugate vaccine licensed in
  February 2000
• 4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, 23F
• Widespread use by June 2000.
• 2,4, 6, 13-15 month immunization schedule
• Efficacy for otitis media, invasive disease,
  pneumonia.
• Reduction in carriage of vaccine serotypes
Temporal trends in risk of invasive
 pneumococcal disease: children
Temporal trends in risk of invasive
  pneumococcal disease: adults
What is Herd Immunity?




   Picture courtesy of Dr. C. Whitney
Early Successes with Vaccination
 Rate of VT IPD per 100,000 population




                                         Direct effect:
                                         94% decrease
                                                                                   Indirect effect:
                                                                                   65% decrease




                                                      CDC. MMWR 2005; 54: 893-7.
Vaccination of children reduces risk of
          disease in adults
    100                                            Cases
                                                   Controls
    80

    60
%
    40

    20

     0
          Any child vaccinated   Youngest child
                                   vaccinated


                                       Vaccine. 2006
Archives of IM 2010
CLSI Breakpoints 2011
Drug                               MIC (ug/mL)
                              Interpretive Standard
                                S        I      R



Penicillin (Meningitis)       ≤ 0.06 0.12-1    ≥2

Penicillin (Non-meningitis)    ≤2       4      ≥8

Erythromycin                  ≤0.25    0.5     ≥1
[1]




         Macrolide Resistance Genotypes
      Genotype                                 Year


                   2001-2   2002-3   2003-4    2004-5   2005-6   2006-7   2007-8   p-value

                   (n=55)   (n=41)   (n =42)   (n=57)   (n=84)   (n=93)   (=89)



      mefA+ermB-   72.7%    70.7%    52.4%     50.9%    40.5%    44.1%    34.8%    <.0001


      mefA-ermB+   20.0%    26.8%    26.2%     36.8%    40.5%    31.2%    46.1%      .01


      ermB+mefA    1.8%     0.0%      9.5%     10.5%    17.9%    23.7%    19.1%    <.0001

          +

      23S rRNA     3.6%     2.4%      7.1%     0.0%     1.2%     1.1%     1.1%       .17
      (A2059G)
Emerging Macrolide Resistance
PCV-13
• Introduction of PCV-13 in 2000
• Coverage of PCV-7 serotypes:
   –4,6B,9V,14,18C,19F,23F

• Additional serotypes:
  –1,3,5,6A,7F,19A
Pediatric Carriage of Pneumococcal
       Serotypes 2008-2010
                20


                18


                16

                                          6C
                14                        35B
                                          19A
% of isolates




                12
                                          11A
                                          15C
                10
                                          23B
                                          23A
                 8
                                          15A
                                          21
                 6
                                          15B like
                                          16F
                 4
                                          22F
                                          15B
                 2


                 0

                     2008   2009   2010
                            YEAR
Spatial Trends
Tobler’s First Law of Geography


“Everything is related to everything
else, but near things are more related
than distant things’’
Pneumococcal Case Distribution
Disease risk varies by neighborhood
Significant hot spots exist
Why are there clusters of disease?

• Small area outbreaks from highly virulent
  clones
  – Pathogen Hypothesis
• Neighborhood level exposures influence risk
  of transmission
  – Vector Hypothesis
• Heterogenous population distribution
  – Host Hypothesis
PFGE Analysis of Pneumo Isolates
Genetic clustering vs. geographic clustering
Children as Vectors




               Huang CID 2005
Child Exposure is Associated with
          Reduced Risk of Disease

Characteristic     Cases per 100,000          95% CI
# of children in
home
 0                       21.5               20.3 – 22.8
 1                       8.3                 6.8 – 9.9
 2+                      3.3                 2.6 – 4.2



                                Archives of Internal Med 2010
Key Points

• Overall risk of pneumococcal disease has
  declined but new serotypes are emerging
• Emerging serotypes are primarily multidrug
  resistance, reflecting selection of MDR clones
  and expansion of previously low prevalence
  serotypes
• Variation in disease risk likely reflects host
  factors, but vector and pathogen factors are
  rapidly changing in pneumococcal disease.
Thanks
•   Robert Austrian        •   Marshall Joffe
•   Lou Bell               •   Ebb Lautenbach
•   Catherine Berjohn      •   Yimei Li
•   Charlie Branas         •   Zhenying Liu
•   Linda Crossette        •   Russell Localio
•   Chris Czaja            •   Mat Macdonald
•   Paul Edelstein         •   Irv Nachamkin
•   Kristen Feemster       •   Samir Shah
•   Neil Fishman           •   Justine Shults
•   James Flory            •   Tony Smith

Dynamic Epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae- Joshua Metlay MD PhD

  • 1.
    The Dynamic Epidemiologyof Streptococcus pneumoniae. Joshua P. Metlay, MD, PhD Division of General Internal Medicine University of Pennsylvania Presented at the 41st Annual Symposium “Global Movement of Infectious Pathogens and Improved Laboratory Detection” Eastern PA Branch-American Society for Microbiology November 17, 2011 Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia
  • 2.
    Outline • Introduction topneumococcal disease • Secular trends –Antimicrobial drug resistance (macrolides) –Serotype replacement • Geographic patterns
  • 4.
    Survival from pneumococcalbacteremia 1952-1962
  • 5.
    Penicillin Resistance inS. pneumoniae United States 1979-2000 Sentinel ABCs 1979-1994: CDC Sentinel Surveillance Network 1995-2002: CDC Active Bacterial Core Surveillance (ABCs) /Emerging Infections Program
  • 7.
    The Delaware ValleyHospital Network • Hospital based reporting of cases of pneumococcal bacteremia • Established in 2001 • Centralized susceptibility testing • 48 hospitals in the 5 county region of Southeastern Pennsylvania • 3.7 million population • 400 annual cases
  • 8.
    Participating hospitals inthe Delaware Valley Emerging Infectious Diseases 2001
  • 9.
    Risk Factors forPneumococcal Bacteremia Characteristic Cases per 100,000 95% CI Age 18-49 8.3 7.5 – 9.2 50-64 15.9 14.4 – 17.6 65-79 26.4 26.4 – 29.5 80+ 59.4 52.7 – 67 Race White 13.7 12.9 – 14.7 African American 26.4 24.2 – 28.9
  • 10.
  • 11.
    Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine •Seven valent conjugate vaccine licensed in February 2000 • 4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, 23F • Widespread use by June 2000. • 2,4, 6, 13-15 month immunization schedule • Efficacy for otitis media, invasive disease, pneumonia. • Reduction in carriage of vaccine serotypes
  • 12.
    Temporal trends inrisk of invasive pneumococcal disease: children
  • 13.
    Temporal trends inrisk of invasive pneumococcal disease: adults
  • 14.
    What is HerdImmunity? Picture courtesy of Dr. C. Whitney
  • 15.
    Early Successes withVaccination Rate of VT IPD per 100,000 population Direct effect: 94% decrease Indirect effect: 65% decrease CDC. MMWR 2005; 54: 893-7.
  • 16.
    Vaccination of childrenreduces risk of disease in adults 100 Cases Controls 80 60 % 40 20 0 Any child vaccinated Youngest child vaccinated Vaccine. 2006
  • 17.
  • 18.
    CLSI Breakpoints 2011 Drug MIC (ug/mL) Interpretive Standard S I R Penicillin (Meningitis) ≤ 0.06 0.12-1 ≥2 Penicillin (Non-meningitis) ≤2 4 ≥8 Erythromycin ≤0.25 0.5 ≥1
  • 21.
    [1] Macrolide Resistance Genotypes Genotype Year 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 p-value (n=55) (n=41) (n =42) (n=57) (n=84) (n=93) (=89) mefA+ermB- 72.7% 70.7% 52.4% 50.9% 40.5% 44.1% 34.8% <.0001 mefA-ermB+ 20.0% 26.8% 26.2% 36.8% 40.5% 31.2% 46.1% .01 ermB+mefA 1.8% 0.0% 9.5% 10.5% 17.9% 23.7% 19.1% <.0001 + 23S rRNA 3.6% 2.4% 7.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% .17 (A2059G)
  • 22.
  • 24.
    PCV-13 • Introduction ofPCV-13 in 2000 • Coverage of PCV-7 serotypes: –4,6B,9V,14,18C,19F,23F • Additional serotypes: –1,3,5,6A,7F,19A
  • 25.
    Pediatric Carriage ofPneumococcal Serotypes 2008-2010 20 18 16 6C 14 35B 19A % of isolates 12 11A 15C 10 23B 23A 8 15A 21 6 15B like 16F 4 22F 15B 2 0 2008 2009 2010 YEAR
  • 26.
  • 27.
    Tobler’s First Lawof Geography “Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things’’
  • 28.
  • 29.
    Disease risk variesby neighborhood
  • 30.
  • 31.
    Why are thereclusters of disease? • Small area outbreaks from highly virulent clones – Pathogen Hypothesis • Neighborhood level exposures influence risk of transmission – Vector Hypothesis • Heterogenous population distribution – Host Hypothesis
  • 34.
    PFGE Analysis ofPneumo Isolates
  • 35.
    Genetic clustering vs.geographic clustering
  • 37.
    Children as Vectors Huang CID 2005
  • 40.
    Child Exposure isAssociated with Reduced Risk of Disease Characteristic Cases per 100,000 95% CI # of children in home 0 21.5 20.3 – 22.8 1 8.3 6.8 – 9.9 2+ 3.3 2.6 – 4.2 Archives of Internal Med 2010
  • 41.
    Key Points • Overallrisk of pneumococcal disease has declined but new serotypes are emerging • Emerging serotypes are primarily multidrug resistance, reflecting selection of MDR clones and expansion of previously low prevalence serotypes • Variation in disease risk likely reflects host factors, but vector and pathogen factors are rapidly changing in pneumococcal disease.
  • 42.
    Thanks • Robert Austrian • Marshall Joffe • Lou Bell • Ebb Lautenbach • Catherine Berjohn • Yimei Li • Charlie Branas • Zhenying Liu • Linda Crossette • Russell Localio • Chris Czaja • Mat Macdonald • Paul Edelstein • Irv Nachamkin • Kristen Feemster • Samir Shah • Neil Fishman • Justine Shults • James Flory • Tony Smith