Analyst Report: The Digital Universe in 2020 - China
- 1. I D C C O U N T R Y B R I E F T H E D I G I T AL U N I V E R S E I N 2 0 2 0 : B i g D a t a , Bigger Digital Shadows, and Biggest Growth in the Far East — China February 2013 By John Gantz, David Reinsel, and Richard Lee Sponsored by EMC Corporation Content for this paper is adapted from IDC's Digital Universe Study, December 2012, sponsored by EMC. Additional content for the study can be viewed at http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital- universe/iview/index.htm China Profile Digital Universe in China to Grow 24-Fold Between 2012 and 2020 The digital universe in China, or the digital bits captured or created each year in the country, is expected to grow from 364 exabytes to 8.6 zettabytes between 2012 and 2020, or nearly 50% a year, which means it will more than double every two years (see Figure 1). China’s share of the global digital universe will grow from 13% to 21% between 2012 and 2020. By 2020, its digital universe, if printed out as text, would make a stack of books reaching from Earth to Pluto and back 30 times.
- 2. What’s driving this growth? Continued growth of Internet usage, social networks, and smartphones among consumers Falling costs of the technology devices that create, capture, manage, protect, and store information Migration from analog TV to digital TV Growth of machine-to-machine communication, including security images Growth of information about information For instance, China now has roughly as many PCs as the United States, or 20% of the global installed base, and twice as many Internet users. In 2012, it surpassed the United States in smartphone shipments and installed base. In two years, the number of smartphones in China will be higher than the number of people in the United States. China also has more TVs than the United States, with 25% of households with TVs now using digital sets. And the country has also aggressively launched initiatives to install security cameras for law enforcement, critical infrastructure, and retail outlets. In addition, because of China's population and far-flung infrastructure, China’s share of digital output from embedded systems (excluding security cameras) will jump from 20% of world output in 2012 to 40% in 2020. According to IDC, from 2011 to 2015, State Grid’s overall investment in smart grids will surpass 1.5 trillion RMB ($232 billion)(State Grid is China's largest grid operator). It’s also worth noting that China’s digital universe is growing faster than available storage. This is a function of an increasing amount of transient data — from phone call routing signals and digital TV signals watched but not stored to signals coming from the Large Hadron Collider at CERN that are discarded within microseconds. The issue with storage in the digital universe is less how to store all the bits than about how to store what must be stored intelligently, economically, and securely. The Consumer Influence When we first started studying the digital universe, the origin of a majority of the bits within it was mature markets: In 2005, the United States and Western Europe accounted for 49% of the digital universe. But as Moore’s law has made digital technology — computers, smartphones, cameras, TVs, movies, industrial equipment — cheaper, the technology has become affordable for more and more people around the world. Over time, the distribution of the bits within the digital universe by country of origin will more closely mirror the distribution of the population. By 2020, the United States and Western Europe will generate only 30% of the bits in the digital universe. However, in China, the contribution of individuals, as consumers or workers, creates a paradox. Individuals accounted for 50% of the regional digital universe in 2012, and enterprises created 50% (see Figure 2). Nevertheless, enterprises had responsibility or liability for 81%. As a byte travels from one consumer camera phone to another, at some point in its life, it passes through an enterprise- owned network that must keep it secure and protect the privacy of the sender and the receiver. The same thing is true for almost all bytes in the digital universe. 2 ©2013 IDC
- 3. This responsibility for information security and privacy protection for so much of the digital universe is one of the key challenges for the CIOs, data scientists and architects, governments, and enterprises driving the development of the digital universe. IDC analysis of the information in China’s portion of the digital universe by category of information indicates that 55% of the data might need security at some level (much of the rest of the data is the transient data mentioned previously). At the same time, we estimate that less than half of that data needing protection actually is protected (see Figure 3). 3
- 4. Opportunity for Big Data One of the ironies of the digital universe is that as soon as information is created or captured and enters the digital cosmos, much of it is lost. If a lot of that information is not stored (refer back to Figure 1), even more is not tracked or analyzed. Of course, not all of the information would be of value if it were tracked, but certainly some of it would be. IDC estimates that in 2012, 33% of the information in China’s digital universe would be valuable were it tagged and analyzed. We also estimate that less than half a percent is analyzed. We expect the percentage of information in the region’s digital universe that would be useful if tagged and analyzed will be a little bigger (35%) by 2020 (see Figure 4). That’s a 25-fold growth of useful information, which should be an inspiration for the adoption of Big Data technologies and practices. 4 ©2013 IDC
- 5. Impact of Cloud Computing The number of IT professionals in China is only growing in single digits each year, yet China’s digital universe is growing more than 100% every two years and the complexity of managing, securing, storing, and extracting value from it continues to increase considerably. Dealing with this complexity implies a new economy of scale revolving around specialties — an incentive for cloud computing. Although cloud computing is in its early days, it is already having an impact on the digital universe. IDC estimates that in 2012, 21% of China's digital universe was in some way "touched" by the cloud — stored, transmitted, or processed. By 2020, that percentage could be as high as 39% (see Figure 5). 5
- 6. Call to Action In just five years, China’s share of the digital universe will be bigger than the entire digital universe in 2012. China's share of the digital universe will be many times more valuable than it is today — and many times more volatile. An exponentially larger number of bytes will need information security, many more systems will need real-time responses, and many more demands for reliability and speedy access will be made of the IT managers, CIOs, data scientists, and chief security officers that manage the actual digital universe. Technology will evolve — algorithms for automatically creating metadata for unstructured data; Big Data software that enables analysis of large, diverse data sets; optimization software for real-time systems; and, of course, information management, data deduplication, and cybersecurity tools. However, the right technology tools will be necessary but not sufficient for the taming of China’s digital universe. It will take new management practices, user education, and savvy policies. This is where technologists must rely on support from business units, government, and consumers, and it is likely an area with bigger challenges than the technological realm. No country, no region, no company can halt the expansion of the digital universe. One can only prepare as best as possible. 6 ©2013 IDC
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