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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Rowe, Philip, author.
Essential statistics for the pharmaceutical sciences / Philip Rowe. – Second edition.
p. ; cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-118-91338-3 (cloth) – ISBN 978-1-118-91339-0 (pbk.)
I. Title.
[DNLM: 1. Research Design. 2. Statistics as Topic. 3. Pharmacology–methods. QV 20.5]
RS57
615′.1072–dc23
2015015316
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not
be available in electronic books.
Cover images: © Ma-k/iStockphoto, © FotografiaBasica/iStockphoto, © Polygraphus/iStockphoto
Set in 10.5/12.5pt Minion by SPi Global, Pondicherry, India
1 2016](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-10-320.jpg)
![Now wol I torn unto Arcite agayn, turn
That litel wiste how nyh that was his care, know, near
Til that fortune hadde brought him in the snare.
The busy larke, messager of day,
Salueth in hire song the morwe gray; saluteth
And fyry Phebus ryseth up so brighte,
That al the orient laugheth of the lighte,
And with his stremes dryeth in the greves rays, groves
The silver dropes, hongyng on the leeves. leaves
And Arcite, that is in the court ryal royal[85]
With Theseus, his squyer principal, squire
Is risen, and loketh on the merye day.
And for to doon his observaunce to May, do, ceremony
Remembryng on the poynt of his desir,
He on his courser, stertyng as the fir, starting, fire
Is riden into the feeldes him to pleye fields, play
Out of the court, were it a myle or tweye.
And to the grove of which that I yow tolde, you
By aventure his wey he gan to holde, chance, began
To maken him a garland of the greves, make
Were it of woodebynde or hawethorn leves, leaves
And lowde he song ayens the sonne scheene: sang, against
O May,[86] with al thy floures and thy greene,
Welcome be thou, wel faire freissche May!
I hope that I som grene gete may. some, may get
And fro his courser, with a lusty herte, heart
Into the grove ful hastily he sterte, started
And in a pathe he romed up and doun, roamed
Ther as by aventure this Palamoun where, chance
Was in a busche, that no man might him see,
For sore afered of his deth was he. afraid, death
Nothing ne knew he that it was Arcite:
God wot he wolde han trowed it ful lite. knows, guessed,
little
For soth is seyd, goon sithen many yeres, truly, gone, since
That feld hath e en and the oode hath ee es e es ea s](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-58-320.jpg)
![So was it said of old, how faithfully,
‘The woods have ears, the empty field can see.’
A man should be prudent, even when he fancies himself safest: for
oftentimes come unlooked-for meetings. And little enough thought
Arcite that his sworn brother from the tower was at hand, sitting as
still as a mouse while he sang.
Whan that Arcite hadde romed al his fill,
And songen al the roundel lustily,
Into a studie he fel sodeynly, reverie
As don thes loveres in here queynte geeres, curious fashions
Now in the croppe,[87] now doun in the breres, briars
Now up, now doun, as boket in a welle.
Now when Arcite long time had roam’d his fill,
And sung all through the rondel lustily,
He fell into dejection suddenly,
As lovers in their strange way often do,
Now in the clouds and now in abject wo,
Now up, now down, as bucket in a well.
He sat down and began to make a kind of song of lamentation.
“Alas,” he cried, “the day that I was born! How long, O Juno, wilt
thou oppress Thebes? All her royal blood is brought to confusion. I
myself am of royal lineage, and yet now I am so wretched and
brought so low, that I have become slave and squire to my mortal
foe. Even my own proud name of Arcite I dare not bear, but pass by
the worthless one of Philostrate! Ah, Mars and Juno, save me, and
wretched Palamon, martyred by Theseus in prison! For all my pains
are for my love’s sake, and Emelye, whom I will serve all my days.”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-60-320.jpg)
![And seyde: False[88] Arcyte—false traitour wikke, wicked
Now art thou hent, that lovest my lady so,
For whom that I have al this peyne and wo,
And art my blood, and to my counseil sworn, counsel
As I ful ofte have told the heere byforn, before now
And hast byjaped here duke Theseus, tricked
And falsly chaunged hast thy name thus;
I wol be deed, or elles thou schalt dye. dead, else
Thou schalt not love my lady Emelye,
But I wil love hire oonly and no mo; more
For I am Palamon, thy mortal fo. foe
And though that I no wepne have in this place, weapon
But out of prisoun am astert by grace, escaped
I drede not, that outher thou schalt dye, fear
Or thou ne schalt not loven Emelye.
Ches which thou wilt, for thou schalt not asterte. escape
This Arcite, with ful dispitous herte, there
Whan he him knew, and hadde his tale herde,
As fers as a lyoun, pulleth out a swerde, fierce
And seide thus: By God that sitteth above,
Nere it that thou art sike and wood for love, were it not
And eek that thou no wepne hast in this place, also
Thou schuldest nevere out of this grove pace, step
That thou ne schuldest deyen of myn hond. die
For I defye the seurté and the bond defy
Which that thou seyst that I have maad to the; sayest
What, verray fool, thenk wel that love is fre!
And I wol love hire mawgré al thy might. In spite of
But, for thou art a gentil perfight knight, because
And wilnest to dereyne hire by batayle, art willing
Have heere my trouthe, to morwe I nyl not fayle, pledge
Withouten wityng of eny other wight, without
knowledge
That heer I wol be founden as a knight, will, found
And bryngen harneys[89] right inough for the;
And ches the best and lef the o st fo me](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-62-320.jpg)
![O Cupide, out of alle charite! all
O regne that wolt no felaw have with the! kingdom
Ful soth is seyd, that love ne lordschipe truly, nor
Wol not, thonkes, have no felaschipe. willingly, fellowship
Wel fynden that Arcite and Palamoun. find
Arcite is riden anon unto the toun
And on the morwe, or it were dayes light, before
Ful prively two harneys hath he dight, prepared
Bothe suffisaunt and mete to darreyne sufficient
The batayl in the feeld betwix hem tweyne. field, them, two
And on his hors alone as he was born, carried
He caryed al this harneys him byforn; before
And in the grove, at tyme and place i-sette,
This Arcite and this Palamon ben mette. be
Tho chaungen gan here colour in here face, then, their
Right as the honter in the regne of Trace kingdom
That stondeth in the gappe with a spere,
Whan honted is the lyoun or the bere,
And hereth him come ruschyng in the greves, groves
And breketh bothe the bowes and the leves, breaking
And thenketh, Here cometh my mortel enemy,
Withoute faile, he mot be deed or I; without
For eyther I mot slen him at the gappe,
Or he moot slee me, if it me myshappe:
So ferden they, in chaungyng of here hew, their hue
As fer as eyther of hem other knewe. far, them
Ther nas no good day, ne no saluyng; was not, saluting
But streyt withouten wordes rehersyng,
Everich of hem helpeth to armen other, each, helped
As frendly, as he were his owen brother; own
And thanne with here scharpe speres stronge
They foyneden ech at other wonder longe, foined
Tho it semede that this Palamon then, seemed
In his fightyng were as a wood lyoun, mad
And as a cruel tygre was Arcite:[90]
As ilde boo es gonne the to sm te began](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-65-320.jpg)
![As wilde boores gonne they to smyte, began
That frothen white as fome, for ire wood, their madness
Up to the ancle faught they in here blood.[91] their
And in this wise I lete hem fightyng dwelle;
And forth I wol of Theseus yow telle. you
O god of love, that hast no charity!
O realm, that wilt not bear a rival nigh!
Truly ’tis said, that love and lordship ne’er
Will be contented only with a share.
Arcite and Palamon have found it so.
Arcite is ridden soon the town unto:
And, on the morrow, ere the sun was high,
Two harness hath he brought forth privily,
Meet and sufficing for the lonely fight
Out in the battle-field mid daisies white.
And riding onward solitarily
All this good armour on his horse bore he:
And at the time and place which they had set
Ere long Arcite and Palamon are met.
To change began the colour of each face—
Ev’n as the hunter’s, in the land of Thrace,
When at a gap he standeth with a spear,
In the wild hunt of lion or of bear,
And heareth him come rushing through the wood,
Crashing the branches in his madden’d mood,
And think’th, “Here com’th my mortal enemy,
Now without fail or he or I must die;
For either I must slay him at the gap,
Or he must slay me if there be mishap.”
So fared the knights so far as either knew,
When, seeing each, each deepen’d in his hue.
There was no greeting—there was no ‘Good day,’
But mute, without a single word, straightway
Each one in arming turn’d to help the other,
As like a f iend as tho gh he e e his b othe](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-66-320.jpg)
![As like a friend as though he were his brother.
And after that, with lances sharp and strong,
They dash’d upon each other—lief and long.
You might have fancied that this Palamon,
Fighting so blindly, were a mad liòn,
And like a cruel tiger was Arcite.
As two wild boars did they together smite,
That froth as white as foam for rage—they stood
And fought until their feet were red with blood.
Thus far awhile I leave them to their fight.
And now what Theseus did I will recite.
Then something happened that neither of them expected.
It was a bright clear day, and Theseus, hunting with his fair queen
Ipolita, and Emelye, clothed all in green, came riding by after the
hart, with all the dogs around them; and as they followed the hart,
suddenly Theseus looked out of the dazzle of the sun, and saw
Arcite and Palamon in sharp fight, like two bulls for fury. The bright
swords flashed to and fro so hideously that it seemed as though
their smallest blows would fell an oak. But the duke knew not who
they were that fought.[92]
Theseus smote his spurs into his horse, and galloped in between the
knights, and, drawing his sword, cried, “Ho![93] No more, on pain of
death! By mighty Mars, he dies who strikes a blow in my presence!”
Then Theseus asked them what manner of men they were, who
dared to fight there, without judge or witness, as though it were in
royal lists?[94]
You may imagine the two men turning on Theseus, breathless and
bloody with fight, weary with anger, and their vengeance still
unslaked.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-67-320.jpg)
![This Palamon answerde hastily,
And seyde: Sire, what nedeth wordes mo? need
We han the deth deserved bothe tuo. two
Tuo woful wrecches ben we, tuo kaytyves wretches,
captives
That ben encombred of oure owne lyves, encumbered by
And as thou art a rightful lord and juge
Ne yeve us neyther mercy ne refuge. give us not
And sle me first, for seynte charite; holy
But sle my felaw eek as wel as me. also
Or sle him first; for, though thou know him lyte, little
This is thy mortal fo, this is Arcite,
That fro thy lond is banyscht on his heed
For which he hath i-served to be deed. deserved
For this is he that come to thi gate
And seyde, that he highte Philostrate. was named
Thus hath he japed the ful many a yer, befooled
And thou hast maad of him thy cheef squyer. made
And this is he that loveth Emelye.
For sith the day is come that I schal dye,
I make pleynly my confessioun,
That I am thilke woful Palamoun, that
That hath thy prisoun broke wikkedly. wickedly
I am thy mortal foo, and it am I
That loveth so hoote Emelye the brighte,
That I wol dye present in hire sighte.
Therfore I aske deeth and my juwyse; sentence
But slee my felaw in the same wyse, slay
For bothe we have served to be slayn.
This worthy duk answerde anon agayn,
And seyde: This is a schort conclusioun:
Your owne mouth, by your confessioun, own
Hath dampned you bothe, and I wil it recorde. condemned
It needeth nought to pyne yow with the corde.[95]
Ye schul be deed by mighty Mars the reede! dead](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-68-320.jpg)
![Then the queen, ‘for verray wommanhede,’ began to weep, and so
did Emelye, and all the ladies present. It seemed pitiful that two
brave men, both of high lineage, should come to such an end, and
only for loving a lady so faithfully. All the ladies prayed Theseus to
have mercy on them, and pardon the knights for their sakes. They
knelt at his feet, weeping and entreating him—
And wold have kist his feet ther as he stood,
Till atte laste aslaked was his mood;
For pite renneth sone in gentil herte, runneth
And though he first for ire quok and sterte, shook
He hath considerd shortly in a clause
The trespas of hem bothe, and eek the cause:
And although that his ire hire gylt accusede, their
Yet in his resoun he hem bothe excusede. them
And would have kissed his feet there as he stood,
Until at last appeasëd was his mood,
For pity springeth soon in gentle heart.
And though he first for rage did quake and start,
He hath considered briefly in the pause
The greatness of their crime, and, too, its cause;
And while his passion had their guilt accused,
Yet now his calmer reason both excused.
Everybody had sympathy for those who were in love;[96] and
Theseus’ heart ‘had compassion of women, for they wept ever in on’
(continually).
So the kindly duke softened, and said to all the crowd good-
humouredly, “What a mighty and great lord is the god of love!”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-70-320.jpg)
![To speke of real lynage and riches, speak, royal
Though that sche were a quene or a prynces, princess
Ilk of yow bothe is worthy douteles each
To wedden, when time is, but natheles marry, nevertheless
I speke as for my suster Emelye,
For whom ye have this stryf and jelousye,
Ye woot youreself, sche may not wedde two know
At oones, though ye faughten ever mo; once, fought
That oon of yow, or be him loth or leef, unwilling or willing
He mot go pypen in an ivy leef;[97] must
This is to say, sche may nought now have bothe,
Al be ye never so jelous, ne so wrothe. angry
“And as for wealth and rank, and royal birth,
Although she were the noblest upon earth,
Each of you both deserves to wed your flame
Being of equal worth; but all the same
It must be said, my sister Emelye
(For whom ye have this strife and jealousy),
You see yourselves full well that she can never
Wed two at once although ye fought for ever!
But one of you, whether he likes or no,
Must then go whistle, and endure his wo.
That is to say, she cannot have you both,
Though you be never so jealous or so wroth.”
With that he made them this offer—that Palamon and Arcite should
each bring in a year’s time (50 weeks) a hundred knights, armed for
the lists,[98] and ready to do battle for Emelye; and whichever knight
won, Palamon and his host or Arcite and his host, should have her
for his wife.
Who looks happy now but Palamon? and who springs up with joy
but Arcite! Every one was so delighted with the kindness of Theseus](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-73-320.jpg)
![With Palamon came the great Licurgus, King of Thrace; with Arcite
came the mighty King of India, Emetrius: and I must give you the
exact account of how these two kings looked, which is most minute.
I should not wonder if these were the likenesses of Palamon and
Arcite themselves.[99]
First, then, comes—](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-77-320.jpg)
![Ligurge himself, the grete kyng of Trace;
Blak was his berd, and manly was his face.
The cercles of his eyen in his heed eyes
They gloweden bytwixe yolw and reed, between
And lik a griffoun loked he aboute,
With kempe heres[100] on his browes stowte; stout
His lymes grete, his brawnes hard and stronge, limbs, muscles
His schuldres brood, his armes rounde and longe. shoulders
And as the gyse was in his contre, guise
Ful heye upon a chare of gold stood he, high, car
With foure white boles in a trays. bulls, the traces
In stede of cote armour on his harnays,[101]
With nales yolwe, and bright as eny gold,
He had a bere skyn, cole-blak for-old. very old
His lange heer y-kempt byhynd his bak, long hair
combed
As eny raven fether it schon for blak. shone
A wrethe of gold arm-gret, and huge of wighte,
Upon his heed, set ful of stoones brighte,
Of fyne rubies and of fyn dyamauntz. diamonds
Aboute his chare ther wenten white alauntz,[102]
Twenty and mo, as grete as eny stere, steer (bullock)
To hunt at the lyoun or at the bere,
And folwed him, with mosel fast i-bounde, muzzle
Colerd with golde, and torettz[103] fyled rounde. spikes, filled
Licurge himself, the mighty king of Thrace;
Black was his beard, and manly was his face,
The circles of his eyes within his head
Glow’d of a hue part yellow and part red,
And like a griffon lookëd he about,
With hair down-combed upon his brows so stout;
His limbs were great, his muscles hard and strong,
His shoulders broad, his arms were round and long.
Acco ding to the fashion of his land](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-78-320.jpg)
![The gret Emetreus, the kyng of Ynde, India
Uppon a steede bay, trapped in steel,
Covered with cloth of gold dyapred wel, diapered like
Cam rydyng lyk the god of armes, Mars.
His coote armour was of a cloth of Tars,[104]
Cowched of perlys whyte, round and grete. overlaid
His sadil was of brend gold new i-bete; burnished
A mantelet[105] upon his schuldre hangyng mantle
Bret-ful of rubies reed, as fir sparclyng. cram-full, fire
His crispe her lik rynges was i-ronne, run
And that was yalwe, and gliteryng as the sonne. yellow-brown
His nose was heigh, his eyen bright cytryn,
His lippes rounde, his colour was sangwyn,
A fewe freknes in his face y-spreynd, sprinkled
Betwixe yolwe and somdel blak y-meynd, somewhat, mixed
And as a lyoun he his lokyng caste. looking
Of fyve and twenty yeer his age I caste. suppose
His berd was wel bygonne for to sprynge;
His voys was as a trumpe thunderynge.
Upon his heed he wered of laurer grene laurel
A garlond freische and lusty for to sene.
Upon his hond he bar for his deduyt[106] hand, delight
An egle tame, as eny lylie whyt. eagle, any
The great Emetrius, the Indian King,
Upon a bay steed trapp’d in shining steel,
Covered with cloth of gold from head to heel,
Came riding like the god of armies, Mars;
His coat-armour was made of cloth of Tars,
O’erlaid with pearls all white and round and great:
His saddle was of smooth gold, newly beat.
A mantlet on his shoulder as he came,
Shone, cramm’d with rubies sparkling like red flame,
And his crisp hair in shining rings did run,
Yello it as and glitte ing as the s n](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-80-320.jpg)
![Yellow it was, and glittering as the sun.
His nose was high, his eyes were bright citrine,
His lips were round, his colour was sanguine,
With a few freckles scattered here and there,
’Twixt black and yellow mingling they were,
And lion-like his glance went to and fro.
His age was five and twenty years, I trow.
A downy beard had just begun to spring,
His voice was like a trumpet thundering.
Upon his head he wore a garland green,
Of laurel, fresh, and pleasant to be seen.
Upon his wrist he bore for his delight
An eagle, tame, and as a lily white.
There was a great festival, and the dancing, and minstrelsy, and
feasting, and rich array of Theseus’ palace were most wondrous to
behold. I should never have time to tell you
What ladies fayrest ben, or best daunsynge, be
Or which of hem can carole[107] best and singe, sing
Ne who most felyngly speketh of love;
What haukes sitten on the perche above, sit
What houndes liggen on the floor adoun. lie
What ladies danced the best, or fairest were,
Or which of them best sung or carol’d there;
Nor who did speak most feelingly of love,
What hawks were sitting on the perch above,
What hounds lay crouching on the floor adown.
Then there were the temples to visit, to ask grace and favour from
the gods. Palamon went to the Temple of Venus, the goddess of
love, and prayed her to help him to gain his lady. Venus promised
him success.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-81-320.jpg)
![Arcite thought it more prudent to go to the god of war, Mars; so he
sacrificed in his temple, and prayed for victory in the lists. Mars
promised him the victory.
But Emelye did not wish to marry either of her lovers. She went to
the temple of Diana early in the morning, and asked the goddess to
help her not to get married! She preferred her free life, walking in
the woods and hunting. She made two fires on Diana’s altar: but
Diana would not listen to her, and both the fires went out suddenly,
with a whistling noise, and Emelye was so frightened that she began
to cry. Then Diana told her she was destined to marry one of these
poor knights who had suffered so much for her, and so she must
make up her mind to it.
Emelye then departed: but Mars and Venus had a great dispute,
because, as you know, they had promised success to each of the
two knights, and Emelye could not marry both. Now, you shall see
how each of them managed to gain a victory.
All Monday was spent in jousting and dancing, and early on Tuesday
began the great tourney.
Such a stamping of horses and chinking of harness![108] Such lines
and crowds of horsemen! There you might see armour so rare and
so rich, wrought with goldsmith’s work, and embroidery, and steel!
Helmets and hauberks and trappings—squires nailing on the
spearheads, and buckling helmets—rubbing up the shields, and
lacing the plates with thongs of leather. Nobody was idle.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-82-320.jpg)
![“No arrows, pole-axe, or short knife shall be brought into the lists,
no short sword, either in the hand or worn at the side. No man shall
ride more than one course with a sharp spear. Whoso comes to
harm shall be taken, and not slain, but brought to the stake, there to
abide according to order. And should a chieftain on either side be
taken, or slay his fellow, no longer shall the tourney last. God speed
you, go forth, and lay on fast! Fight your fill with mace and
longsword!”[109]
The shouts of all the people rang right up to the sky, “God save such
a good lord, who will have no bloodshed!”
Up go the trumpets and the music, and through the broad city, all
hung with cloth of gold, the crowds ride to the lists. The noble duke
rode first, and the Theban knights on either side, afterwards came
the queen and fair Emelye, and then all the company followed
according to their rank.
When they came to the lists, everybody pressed forward to the
seats. Arcite goes in at the west gate by Mars’ temple, with a red
banner, and all his hundred knights. At the same moment Palamon
enters the east gate by Venus’ temple, with his white banner and
brave host. Never was there such a sight. The two companies were
so evenly matched there was no choosing between them. Then they
ranged themselves in two ranks; the names were read out, that
there might be no cheating in the numbers; the gates were shut,
and loud was the cry, “Do now your devoir, young knights proud!”
The heralds have ceased to ride up and down. The trumpets ring out
—in go the spears steadily to the rests—the sharp spur is in the
horse’s side. There you may see who can joust and who can ride—
there the shafts of the spears shiver on the thick shields—he feels
the thrust right through the body. Up spring the lances twenty foot
high, out fly the swords like silver—helmets are crushed and
shivered—out bursts the blood in stern, red streams! See, the strong
horses stumble—down go all—a man rolls under foot like a ball. See,
he fences at his foe with a truncheon, and hustles him while his](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2655156-250724233059-16da4257/85/Essential-Statistics-For-The-Pharmaceutical-Sciences-2nd-Edition-Rowe-84-320.jpg)
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- 7. Essential Statistics for the Pharmaceutical Sciences
- 9. Essential Statistics for the Pharmaceutical Sciences Second Edition Philip Rowe Liverpool John Moores University, UK
- 10. This edition first published 2016 © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Registered Office John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Editorial Offices 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030‐5774, USA For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com/wiley‐blackwell. The right of the author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author(s) have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data Rowe, Philip, author. Essential statistics for the pharmaceutical sciences / Philip Rowe. – Second edition. p. ; cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-1-118-91338-3 (cloth) – ISBN 978-1-118-91339-0 (pbk.) I. Title. [DNLM: 1. Research Design. 2. Statistics as Topic. 3. Pharmacology–methods. QV 20.5] RS57 615′.1072–dc23 2015015316 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Cover images: © Ma-k/iStockphoto, © FotografiaBasica/iStockphoto, © Polygraphus/iStockphoto Set in 10.5/12.5pt Minion by SPi Global, Pondicherry, India 1 2016
- 11. To Carol, Joshua and Nathan for continued support
- 13. Contents Prefacexiii Statistical packages xix About the website xxi Part 1 Presenting data 1 1 Data types 3 1.1 Does it really matter? 3 1.2 Interval scale data 4 1.3 Ordinal scale data 4 1.4 Nominal scale data 5 1.5 Structure of this book 6 1.6 Chapter summary 6 2 Data presentation 7 2.1 Numerical tables 8 2.2 Bar charts and histograms 9 2.3 Pie charts 14 2.4 Scatter plots 16 2.5 Pictorial symbols 21 2.6 Chapter summary 22 Part 2 Interval‐scale data 23 3 Descriptive statistics for interval scale data 25 3.1 Summarising data sets 25 3.2 Indicators of central tendency: Mean, median and mode 26 3.3 Describing variability – standard deviation and coefficient of variation 33 3.4 Quartiles – Another way to describe data 36 3.5 Describing ordinal data 40 3.6 Using computer packages to generate descriptive statistics 43 3.7 Chapter summary 45 4 The normal distribution 47 4.1 What is a normal distribution? 47 4.2 Identifying data that are not normally distributed 48 4.3 Proportions of individuals within 1SD or 2SD of the mean 52
- 14. viii Contents 4.4 Skewness and kurtosis 54 4.5 Chapter summary 57 4.6 Appendix: Power, sample size and the problem of attempting to test for a normal distribution 58 5 Sampling from populations: The standard error of the mean 63 5.1 Samples and populations 63 5.2 From sample to population 65 5.3 Types of sampling error 65 5.4 What factors control the extent of random sampling error when estimating a population mean? 68 5.5 Estimating likely sampling error – The SEM 70 5.6 Offsetting sample size against SD 74 5.7 Chapter summary 75 6 95% Confidence interval for the mean and data transformation77 6.1 What is a confidence interval? 78 6.2 How wide should the interval be? 78 6.3 What do we mean by ‘95%’ confidence? 79 6.4 Calculating the interval width 80 6.5 A long series of samples and 95% C.I.s 81 6.6 How sensitive is the width of the C.I. to changes in the SD, the sample size or the required level of confidence? 82 6.7 Two statements 85 6.8 One‐sided 95% C.I.s 85 6.9 The 95% C.I. for the difference between two treatments 88 6.10 The need for data to follow a normal distribution and data transformation90 6.11 Chapter summary 94 7 The two‐sample t‐test (1): Introducing hypothesis tests 95 7.1 The two‐sample t‐test – an example of an hypothesis test 96 7.2 Significance 103 7.3 The risk of a false positive finding 104 7.4 What aspects of the data will influence whether or not we obtain a significant outcome? 106 7.5 Requirements for applying a two‐sample t‐test108 7.6 Performing and reporting the test 109 7.7 Chapter summary 110 8 The two‐sample t‐test (2): The dreaded P value 111 8.1 Measuring how significant a result is 111 8.2 P values 112 8.3 Two ways to define significance? 113 8.4 Obtaining the P value 113 8.5 P values or 95% confidence intervals? 114 8.6 Chapter summary 115
- 15. Contents ix 9 The two‐sample t‐test (3): False negatives, power and necessary sample sizes 117 9.1 What else could possibly go wrong? 118 9.2 Power 119 9.3 Calculating necessary sample size 122 9.4 Chapter summary 130 10 The two‐sample t‐test (4): Statistical significance, practical significance and equivalence 131 10.1 Practical significance – Is the difference big enough to matter? 131 10.2 Equivalence testing 135 10.3 Non‐inferiority testing 139 10.4 P values are less informative and can be positively misleading 141 10.5 Setting equivalence limits prior to experimentation 143 10.6 Chapter summary 144 11 The two‐sample t‐test (5): One‐sided testing 145 11.1 Looking for a change in a specified direction 146 11.2 Protection against false positives 148 11.3 Temptation! 149 11.4 Using a computer package to carry out a one‐sided test 153 11.5 Chapter summary 153 12 What does a statistically significant result really tell us? 155 12.1 Interpreting statistical significance 155 12.2 Starting from extreme scepticism 159 12.3 Bayesian statistics 160 12.4 Chapter summary 161 13 The paired t‐test: Comparing two related sets of measurements 163 13.1 Paired data 163 13.2 We could analyse the data by a two‐sample t‐test165 13.3 Using a paired t‐test instead 165 13.4 Performing a paired t‐test166 13.5 What determines whether a paired t‐test will be significant? 169 13.6 Greater power of the paired t‐test170 13.7 Applicability of the test 170 13.8 Choice of experimental design 171 13.9 Requirement for applying a paired t‐test172 13.10 Sample sizes, practical significance and one‐sided tests 173 13.11 Summarising the differences between paired and two‐sample t‐tests175 13.12 Chapter summary 175 14 Analyses of variance: Going beyond t‐tests177 14.1 Extending the complexity of experimental designs 177 14.2 One‐way analysis of variance 178 14.3 Two‐way analysis of variance 188
- 16. x Contents 14.4 Fixed and random factors 198 14.5 Multi‐factorial experiments 204 14.6 Chapter summary 204 15 Correlation and regression – Relationships between measured values 207 15.1 Correlation analysis 208 15.2 Regression analysis 218 15.3 Multiple regression 225 15.4 Chapter summary 235 16 Analysis of covariance 237 16.1 A clinical trial where ANCOVA would be appropriate 238 16.2 General interpretation of ANCOVA results 239 16.3 Analysis of the COPD trial results 241 16.4 Advantages of ANCOVA over a simple two‐sample t‐test244 16.5 Chapter summary 249 Part 3 Nominal‐scale data 251 17 Describing categorised data and the goodness of fit chi‐square test 253 17.1 Descriptive statistics 254 17.2 Testing whether the population proportion might credibly be some pre‐determined figure 258 17.3 Chapter summary 264 18 Contingency chi‐square, Fisher’s and McNemar’s tests 265 18.1 Using the contingency chi‐square test to compare observed proportions 266 18.2 Extent of change in proportion with an expulsion – Clinically significant? 270 18.3 Larger tables – Attendance at diabetic clinics 270 18.4 Planning experimental size 273 18.5 Fisher’s exact test 275 18.6 McNemar’s test 277 18.7 Chapter summary 279 18.8 Appendix 280 19 Relative risk, odds ratio and number needed to treat 283 19.1 Measures of treatment effect – relative risk, odds ratio and number needed to treat 283 19.2 Similarity between relative risk and odds ratio 287 19.3 Interpreting the various measures 288 19.4 95% confidence intervals for measures of effect size 289 19.5 Chapter summary 293 20 Logistic regression 295 20.1 Modelling a binary outcome 295 20.2 Additional predictors and the problem of confounding 304
- 17. Contents xi 20.3 Analysis by computer package 307 20.4 Extending logistic regression beyond dichotomous outcomes 308 20.5 Chapter summary 309 20.6 Appendix 309 Part 4 Ordinal‐scale data 311 21 Ordinal and non‐normally distributed data: Transformations and non‐parametric tests 313 21.1 Transforming data to a normal distribution 314 21.2 The Mann–Whitney test – a non‐parametric method 318 21.3 Dealing with ordinal data 323 21.4 Other non‐parametric methods 325 21.5 Chapter summary 333 21.6 Appendix 334 Part 5 Other TOPICS 337 22 Measures of agreement 339 22.1 Answers to several questions 340 22.2 Several answers to one question – do they agree? 344 22.3 Chapter summary 358 23 Survival analysis 361 23.1 What special problems arise with survival data? 362 23.2 Kaplan–Meier survival estimation 363 23.3 Declining sample sizes in survival studies 369 23.4 Precision of sampling estimates of survival 369 23.5 Indicators of survival 371 23.6 Testing for differences in survival 374 23.7 Chapter summary 383 24 Multiple testing 385 24.1 What is it and why is it a problem? 385 24.2 Where does multiple testing arise? 386 24.3 Methods to avoid false positives 388 24.4 The role of scientific journals 392 24.5 Chapter summary 393 25 Questionnaires 395 25.1 Types of questions 396 25.2 Sample sizes and low return rates 398 25.3 Analysing the results 399 25.4 Problem number two: Confounded questionnaire data 401 25.5 Problem number three: Multiple testing with questionnaire data 401 25.6 Chapter summary 403 Index405
- 19. Preface At whom is this book aimed? Statisticians or statistics users? The starting point for writing this book was my view that most existing statistics books place far too much emphasis on the mechanical number crunching of statistical procedures. This makes the subject seem extremely tedious and (more importantly) diverts attention from what are actually vital and interesting fundamental concepts. I believe that we need to distinguish between ‘Statisticians’ and ‘Statistics users’. The latter are the people at whom this book is aimed – those thousands of people who have to use statistical procedures without having any ambition to become statisticians. There is any number of student programmes which include an element of statistics. These students will have to learn to use at least the more basic statistical methods. There are also those of us engaged in research in academia or industry. Some of us will have to carry out our own statistical analyses and others will be able to call on the ser- vices of professional statisticians. However, even where professionals are to hand, there is still the problem of communication; if you don’t even know what the words mean, you are going to have great difficulty explaining to a statistician exactly what you want to do. The intention is that all of the above should find this book useful. As a statistics user, what you really need to know is: • • Why are statistical procedures necessary at all? • • How can statistics help in planning experiments? • • Which procedure should I employ to analyse the results? • • What do the statistical results actually mean when I’ve got them? This book is quite happy to treat any statistical calculation as a black box. It will explain what needs to go into the box and it will explain what comes out the other end. But do you really need to know what goes on inside the box? This approach isn’t just lazy or negative. By stripping away all the irrelevant bits, we can focus on the aspects that actually matter. This book will try to concentrate on the issues listed above – the things that statistics users really do need to understand.
- 20. xiv Preface To what subject area is the book relevant? All the procedures and tests are illustrated with practical examples and data sets. The cases are drawn from the pharmaceutical sciences and this is reflected in the book’s title. However, pretty well all the methods described and the principles explored are perfectly relevant to a wide range of scientific research, including pharmaceutical, biological, biomedical and chemical sciences. At what level is it aimed? The book is aimed at everybody from undergraduate science students and their teachers to experienced researchers. The first few chapters are fairly basic. They cover data description (mean, median, mode, standard deviation and quartile values) and introduce the problem of describ- ing uncertainty due to sampling error (Standard Error of the Mean and 95% Confidence Interval for the mean). These chapters are mainly relevant to first year students. Later chapters then cover the most commonly used statistical tests with a general trend towards increasing complexity. The approach used is not the traditional one of giving equal weight to a wide range of techniques. As the focus of the book is the issues surrounding statistical testing rather than methods of calculation, one test (the two‐sample t‐test) has been used to illustrate all the relevant issues (Chapters 7–11). Further chapters then deal with other tests more briefly, referring back to general principles that have already been established. What has changed since the first edition of this book in 2007? My motivation for producing a second edition has very little to do with the arrival of any new statistical methods that are likely to have broad applicability for working pharmaceutical scientists – there are precious few. So, why a new edition? I provide statistical advice to researchers in diverse areas of pharmaceutical science (and beyond) and the change I have noticed is an increased familiarity and confidence with the use of statistical packages. This brings both opportunities and pitfalls. Opportunities There are several statistical methods that I considered covering in the first edition but I concluded, at that time, that very few researchers would have the confidence to tackle them. Hopefully we have now moved on. For this edition I have added analy- sis of covariance, logistic regression, measures of agreement (e.g. Cronbach’s Alpha
- 21. Preface xv and Cohen’s Kappa) and survival analysis. Many of these are more advanced than the topics in the first edition, but with some clear explanatory material (which I hope I have supplied) and relatively easy to use statistical packages, most pharmaceutical scientists should be perfectly capable of applying them. Pitfalls On the negative side, powerful statistical packages also offer new and improved methods to make a complete fool of yourself. Where I have seen examples of this over the last seven years I have tried to include warnings in this new edition. Other new material Apart from the completely new topics listed earlier, I have also filled in a number of gaps from the first edition. Many of these additions concern studies that generate simple dichotomous outcomes (e.g. Yes/No or Success/Failure). I have added the use of the Relative Risk, Odds Ratio and Number Needed to Treat (RR, OR and NNT) as descriptors of the extent of change in a dichotomous outcome. I have also described Fisher’s and McNemar’s tests as additions to the simple chi‐square test which was included in the first edition. Finally, when you teach statistics to various groups of students, year in, year out, you inevitably have the occasional light‐bulb moment, when you realise that there is actually a much better way to explain something than the awkward method you have used for the last 30 years. Some of these are scattered around the book. Key point and pirate boxes Key point boxs Throughout the book you will find key point boxes that look like this: Proportions of individuals within given ranges For data that follows a normal distribution: • • About two‐thirds of individuals will have values within 1 SD of the mean. • • About 95% of individuals will have values within 2 SD of the mean.
- 22. xvi Preface These never provide new information. Their purpose is to summarise and emphasise key points. Pirate boxes You will also find pirate boxes that look like this: These are written in the style of Machiavelli, but are not actually intended to encourage statistical abuse. The point is to make you alert for misuses that others may try to foist upon you. Forewarned is forearmed. The danger posed, is reflected by the number of skull and cross‐bone symbols. Minor hazard. Abuse easy to spot or has limited potential to mislead. Moderate hazard. The well‐informed (e.g. readers of this book) should spot the attempted deception. Severe hazard. An effective ruse that even the best informed may suspect, but never be able to prove. A potted summary of this book The book is aimed at those who have to use statistics, but have no ambition to become statisticians per se. It avoids getting bogged down in calculation methods and focuses instead on crucial issues that surround data generation and analysis (Sample size estimation, interpretation of statistical results, the hazards of multiple Switch to a one-sided test after seeing the results Even today, this is probably the best and most commonly used statistical fiddle. You did the experiment and analysed the results by your usual two‐sided test. The result fell just short of significance (P somewhere between 0.05 and 0.1) There’s a simple solution – guaranteed to work every time. Re‐run the analysis, but change to a one‐sided test, testing for a change in whatever direction you now know the results actually suggest. Until the main scientific journals get their act into gear, and start insisting that authors register their intentions in advance, there is no way to detect this excellent fiddle. You just need some plausible reason why you ‘always intended’ to do a one‐ tailed test in this particular direction, and you’re guaranteed to get away with it.
- 23. Preface xvii testing, potential abuses etc.). In this day of statistical packages, it is the latter that cause the real problems, not the number‐crunching. The book’s illustrative examples are all taken from the pharmaceutical sciences, so students (and staff) in the areas of pharmacy, pharmacology and pharmaceutical science should feel at home with all the material. However, the issues considered are of concern in most scientific disciplines and should be perfectly clear to anybody from a similar discipline, even if the examples are not immediately familiar. Material is arranged in a developmental manner. The first six chapters are fairly basic, with special emphasis on random sampling error. The next block of five chap- ters uses the two‐sample t‐test to introduce a series of general statistical principles. Remaining chapters then cover other topics in (approximately) increasing order of complexity. The book is not tied to any specific statistical package. Instructions should allow readers to enter data into any package and find the key parts of the output. Specific instructions for performing all the procedures, using Minitab or SPSS, are provided in a linked website (www.ljmu.ac.uk/pbs/rowestats/).
- 25. There are any number of statistical packages available. It is not the intention of this book to recommend any particular one. Microsoft Excel Probably the commonest way to collect data and perform simple manipulations is within a Microsoft Excel (XL) spreadsheet. Consequently, the most obvious way to carry out statistical analyses of such data would seem to lie within XL itself. Let me give you my first piece of advice. Don’t even consider it! The data analysis proce- dures within XL are rubbish – a very poor selection of procedures, badly imple- mented. (Apart from that, they are OK.) It is only at the most basic level that XL is of any real use (calculation of the mean, SD and SEM). It is therefore mentioned in some of the early chapters but not thereafter. Other packages A decision was taken not to include blow by blow accounts of how to perform spe- cific tests using any package, as this would excessively limit the book’s audience. Instead, general comments are made about: • • Entering data into packages; • • The information that will be required before any package can carry out the procedure; • • What to look for in the output that will be generated. The last point is usually illustrated by generic output. This will not be in the same format as that from any specific package, but will present information that they should all provide. Statistical packages
- 26. xx Statistical packages Detailed instructions for Minitab and SPSS on the website As Minitab and SPSS clearly do have a significant user base, detailed instructions on how to use these packages to execute the procedures in this book are available through the website (www.ljmu.ac.uk/pbs/rowestats/). These cover how to: • • Arrange the data for analysis. • • Trigger the appropriate test. • • Select appropriate options where relevant. • • Find the essential parts of the output.
- 27. About the website Supplementary material, including full data sets and detailed instructions for carrying out analyses using packages such as SPSS or Minitab, is provided at: www.ljmu.ac.uk/pbs/rowestats/
- 31. Essential Statistics for the Pharmaceutical Sciences, Second Edition. Philip Rowe. © 2016 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Published 2016 by John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Data types 1 1.1 Does it really matter? Toopenastatisticsbook with adiscussionoftheway in which data can be categorised into different types probably sounds horribly academic. However, the first step in selecting a data handling technique is generally identifying the type of data with which we are dealing. So, it may be dry, but it does have real consequences. We will discuss three types of data. These go under a variety of names. The names that this book will use are (with common alternatives in brackets): • • Interval scale (Continuous measurement data) • • Ordinal scale (Ordered categorical data) • • Nominal scale (Categorical data) This chapter will … • Set out a system for describing different types of data. • Explain why we need to identify the type of data with which we are dealing.
- 32. 4 cH1 Data types 1.2 Interval scale data The first two types of data that we will consider are both concerned with the measurement of some characteristic. ‘Interval scale’ (or what is sometimes called ‘Continuous measured’) data includes most of the information that would be generated in a laboratory. These include weights, lengths, timings, concentrations, pressures etc. Imagine we had a series of objects weighing 1, 2, 3 and so on up to 7 g, as in Figure 1.1. Now think about the differences in weights as we step from one object to the next. These steps, each of one unit along the scale, have the following characteristics: 1. The steps are of an exactly defined size. If you told somebody that you had a series of objects like those described above, he or she would know exactly how large the weight differences are as we progressed along the series. 2. All the steps are of exactly the same size. The weight difference between the 1 and 2 g objects is the same as the step from 2 to 3 g or 6 to 7 and so on. Because these measurements have constant sized steps (intervals), the measure- ment scale is described as a ‘Constant interval scale’ and the data as ‘Interval scale’. Although the weights quoted in Figure 1.1 are exact integers, weights of 1.5 or 3.175 g are perfectly possible, so the measurement scale is said to be ‘Continuous’. 1.3 Ordinal scale data Again measurement is involved, but the characteristic being assessed is often more subjective in nature. It’s all well and good to measure nice neat objective things like blood pressure or temperature, but it’s also a good idea to get the patient’s angle on 1g 2g 3g 4g 5 g 6 g 7 g Figure 1.1 Interval scale data – a series of weights (1–7 g)
- 33. 1.4 Nominal scale data 5 how they feel about their treatment. The most obvious way to do this is as a score, of (say) –2 to +2 with the following equivalences: –2 = Markedly worse –1 = A bit worse 0 = About the same +1 = A bit better +2 = Markedly better In this case (Figure 1.2) all we know is that if one patient reports a higher value than another, they are more satisfied with their outcome. However, we have no idea how much more satisfied he/she might be. Since we have no idea how large the steps are between scores, we obviously could not claim that all steps are of equal size. In fact, it is not even necessarily the case that the difference between scores of –2 and 0 is greater than that between +1 and +2. So, neither of the special characteristics of a constant interval scale apply to this data. The name ‘Ordinal’ reflects the fact that the various outcomes form an ordered sequence going from one extreme to its opposite. Such data is sometimes referred to as ‘Ordered categorical’. In this case the data is usually discontinuous; individual cases being scored as –1 or +2 and so on, with no fractional values. 1.4 Nominal scale data In this case there is no sense of measuring a characteristic; we use a system of classifications, with no natural ordering. For example, one of the factors that influences the effectiveness of treatment could be the specific manufacturer of a medical device. So, all patients would be classified as users of ‘Smith’, ‘Jones’, or ‘Williams’ equipment. There is no natural sequence to these; they are just three different makes. With ordinal data we did at least know that a case scored as (say) +2 is going to be more similar to one scored +1 than to one scored 0 or –1. But, with nominal data, we have no reason to expect Smith or Jones equipment to have any special degree of similarity. Indeed the sequence in which one would list them may be entirely arbitrary. Score –2 (Much worse) Score –1 (Bit worse) Score 0 (About same) Score +1 (Bit better) Score +2 (Much better) Figure 1.2 Ordinal scale data – scores for patient responses to treatment
- 34. 6 cH1 Data types Quite commonly there are just two categories in use. Obvious cases are Male/ Female, Alive/Dead or Success/Failure. In these cases, the data is described as “Dichotomous”. 1.5 Structure of this book The structure of this book is largely based upon the different data types. Chapters 3 to 16 all deal with the handling of continuous measurement data, with Chapters 17 to 20 focusing on categorical data; and then Chapter 21 covers ordinal data. 1.6 Chapter summary When selecting statistical procedures, a vital first step is to identify the type of data that is being considered. Data may be: • • Interval scale: Measurements on a scale with defined and constant intervals. Data is continuous. • • Ordinal scale: Measurements on a scale without defined intervals. Data is discontinuous. • • Nominal scale: Classifications that form no natural sequence. Data types Interval scale: Measurements with defined and constant intervals between successive values. Values are continuous. Ordinal scale: Measurements using classifications with a natural sequence (lowest to highest) but with undefined intervals. Values are discontinuous. Nominal scale: Classifications that form no natural sequence.
- 35. Essential Statistics for the Pharmaceutical Sciences, Second Edition. Philip Rowe. © 2016 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Published 2016 by John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Data presentation 2 Statistical analyses allow complex data to be summarised objectively and clearly in one or two numbers. However, used in isolation, such analyses can be horribly misleading and this book will emphasise the value of the pictorial representation of data. A clear graph or bar chart will often alert you to some important aspect of the data that would be missed if we relied solely on one or two dry, numerical statistics. This chapter will not attempt to identify any method of data presentation as a universal panacea. Selecting the best method depends upon the type of data involved (interval, ordinal or nominal) and the nature of the readership being addressed (scientifically trained or the general public?). Roughly speaking, the various methods This chapter will … • Describe the use of numerical tables, bar charts, pie charts, pictorial symbols and scattergrams. • Consider which type of data is appropriate for each method of presentation. • Stress the importance of considering the type of readership at which a presentation is targeted. (Scientifically literate or general public?) • Assess the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
- 36. 8 cH2 Data presentation described are ordered according to their ‘Friendliness’ (i.e. accessibility for a non‐ scientific readership), starting with the least friendly. 2.1 Numerical tables We have three different anti‐emetic drugs to be used in conjunction with a chemo- therapy regime. One is our current standard medicine and then we have two new candidates. We want to look at the degree of nausea reported when they are used. Each anti‐emetic is administered to 30 patients and they assess nausea on a four‐point ordinal scale (1 = None, 2 = Slight, 3 = Moderate, 4 = Severe). The results are shown in Table 2.1. Presenting the data as a numerical table has both good and bad aspects: • • Good: The full details of the original data are available. No doubt we will have done our own analysis of the data, but others may want to analyse the same data in a different way or may wish to combine this data with that from other studies in a meta‐analysis. Reporting the data as a numerical table makes such re‐analyses possible. • • Bad: These tables are rather forbidding and lacking in immediacy. If your readership is highly numerate – for example colleagues at a scientific conference – they will not be put off by this table. However, if you showed this type of table to a lay audi- ence, their eyes would glaze over and all higher intellectual functions would face imminent shutdown. Table 2.1 Number of patients reporting varying degrees of nausea following use of three different anti‐nausea drugs Current standard Candidate one Candidate two 1 (None) 3 4 8 2 (Slight) 6 6 12 3 (Moderate) 19 17 9 4 (Severe) 2 3 1 A picture is worth 1000 words. Data should be assessed both pictorially and statistically • • Pictures often reveal unsuspected aspects of the data. • • Statistics provide an objective test of what the data really does (or does not) demonstrate.
- 37. 2.2 Bar charts and histograms 9 Even with a numerate audience there is still the problem of immediacy. About the only thing that emerges quickly is that most patients have suffered moderate levels of nausea, absence of nausea being quite rare. But, the more important issue is the comparison of one anti‐emetic with another. If you look carefully enough it is possible to see that Candidate One barely differs from the current standard but Candidate Two may be a useful improvement, however such niceties certainly don’t stand out immediately. The stacked bar chart discussed in the next section gets the message over more dramatically. 2.2 Bar charts and histograms Any of the three types of data (interval, ordinal or nominal) can be reported as a bar chart. But the ease of doing so varies. 2.2.1 Simple bar charts 2.2.1.1 Nominal data A series of patients are offered four different formulations of cough medicine. They are asked simply to indicate which of the four they most favour. The outcomes – numbers preferring product A, B, C or D – form nominal scale data. Nominal data is always discontinuous and generally falls into a small number of natural and distinct categories. It is therefore ideal for presentation as a bar chart, as in Figure 2.1. Detailed instructions for producing all the figures in this chapter using SPSS are provided on the accompanying website (www.ljmu.ac.uk/ pbs/rowestats/). Note that the horizontal scale represents nominal scale data. It does not represent a continuous scale of measurement. To emphasise the discrete nature of the catego- ries, spaces are left between the bars. Numerical tables Good: Raw data available for further analysis. Bad: Unfriendly and poor immediacy. How to produce the graphs in this chapter Detailed instructions for producing all the figures in this chapter using SPSS are provided on www.ljmu.ac.uk/pbs/rowestats.
- 38. 10 cH2 Data presentation 2.2.1.2 Ordinal data Ordinal data is most commonly collected using a scale of measurement with a small number of possible values, so it is usually appropriate for use in bar charts. The example below (Figure 2.2) concerns a Likert scale measure for opinion on the time a treatment requires, using a five‐point scale. Ordinal data forms a natural basis for a simple bar chart, especially as it is intuitive to see the left‐ hand end of the horizontal axis as the low end of a scale of measurement, with higher values as we move to the right. As with Figure 2.1, gaps have been left between the bars, to emphasise that the horizontal scale is not a continuous scale of measurement; there were no opinions recorded at any points in between the five values shown. A simple bar chart is adequate to describe a single set of outcomes. However, if we want to compare two (or more) sets of outcomes, we are going to need something fancier. Sections 2.2.2 and 2.2.3 describe two ways to do it. 2.2.2 Three‐dimensional bar charts A group of volunteers were each shown a tablet and asked to choose one word that best expressed their opinion of its appearance. They could choose from a list of five (‘Dangerous’, ‘Powerful’, ‘Neutral’, ‘Safe’ or ‘Calming’). All tablets were identical apart from their colour, which was either red or green. The results are presented as a three‐dimensional bar chart in Figure. 2.3. Patients are influenced by the colour, with red being seen as powerful or dangerous while green is safe or calming. That difference stands out immediately in the bar chart. A 0 20 40 60 80 100 B Preferred Count C D Figure 2.1 Simple bar chart using nominal data – numbers of subjects preferring formula- tion A, B, C or D of a liquid medicine
- 39. 2.2 Bar charts and histograms 11 Strongly disagree Disagree 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Count Neutral Agree Strongly agree Figure 2.2 Bar chart based on ordinal data – opinions on the statement ‘The treatment took too long’ 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dangerous Powerful Neutral Safe Calming Red Green Figure 2.3 Three‐dimensional bar chart of subjects’ impressions of tablets that are identi- cal in all aspects other than colour
- 40. 12 cH2 Data presentation 2.2.3 Stacked bar chart We might try to present the data from Table 2.1 concerning levels of nausea with various anti‐emetics as a three‐dimensional bar chart, but it doesn’t actually work out too well, because some shorter bars get hidden behind taller ones. However, stacked bars can be used to portray the data quite effectively. It is immediately obvi- ous from Figure 2.4 that anti‐nausea drug Candidate One has produced very little change relative to the existing standard. But Candidate Two is visibly different; there is a majority with No or only Slight nausea. Stacked bar charts could be used with nominal data, but they work especially well with ordinal data such as these nausea grades. 2.2.4 Histograms Trying to present interval type data as a bar chart is less straightforward. This type of data is usually measured on a continuous scale and so there are large numbers of different values. However we can artificially convert it to a more limited number of categories by breaking it up into bands. Current Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Count 30 20 10 0 Nausea Severe Moderate Slight None Figure 2.4 Stacked bar chart for levels of nausea with different anti‐emetics
- 41. 2.2 Bar charts and histograms 13 For example, we have some observations of patients’ temperatures five days following surgery. We could classify each individual into one of the following bands based on their temperatures: 36.8 – 37.0°C 37.1 – 37.3°C 38.6 – 38.8°C and so on Note that these bands must fulfil three requirements: • • No gaps. If we had bands of 36.5–36.7 and then 36.9– 37.1°C, we could not allocate a temperature of 36.8°C to a category. • • No overlaps. If we had bands of 36.5–36.7 and then 36.7–36.9°C, an individual with a value of 36.7°C could be allocated to two possible categories. • • All bands of equal width. If the first few bands covered a range of 0.3°C, but then we went to bands covering 0.6°C, the later categories would contain greater numbers of individuals. The increased heights of these bars would have nothing to do with these temperatures being commoner; it would just be an artefact of the way we had categorised the data. The temperatures are then presented as in Figure 2.5. 36.5 40 30 20 10 0 37.0 Temp (°C) Frequency 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 Figure 2.5 Histogram of patients’ temperatures
- 42. 14 cH2 Data presentation The chart suggests that there is a distinct sub‐population with elevated body temperatures – presumably they have become infected whereas the others have not. Unlike all of the previous cases, the horizontal axis does now represent a continuous scale of measurement which contains no sudden breaks. To emphasise the continuous nature of the scale, we do not leave gaps between the bars. Where the scale of measurement is essentially continuous, but has been artificially broken into bands, the resultant chart is given the special name of a ‘Histogram’. Note that the term ‘Histogram’ should only be used in this context. Figures 2.1–2.4 are bar charts, but not histograms. 2.2.5 A general assessment of bar charts and histograms Bar charts are probably somewhat less intimidating than numerical tables, for a non‐scientifically oriented audience. However, they are still far from perfect. They are much better than numbers in terms of their immediacy. Not just patterns in single sets of data but also contrasts between sets of data are far more easily appreciated. The one loss is that we no longer have access to the exact data. It is possible to add numbers to the bars, but in many cases this is awkward. For example in Figure 2.3, several of the bars are partially hidden and we would have to write the number somewhere else on the chart and have an arrow connecting it to the appropriate bar. This clutters the diagram and much of the simplicity and clarity will be lost. 2.3 Pie charts 2.3.1 Simple pie charts We would almost never use pie charts to present data that was interval or ordinal in nature. Such data falls on a scale with a low and a high end, which is more naturally expressed in a bar chart. Pie charts are circular and simply don’t match the needs of Histograms A histogram is a bar chart using data that was originally on a continuously varying scale, but which has been subdivided into ranges to render it in a classified format. No gaps are left between the bars. Bar charts and histograms Good: Excellent immediacy for all main messages and reasonably friendly. Bad: Often difficult to include exact values without loss of clarity.
- 43. 2.3 Pie charts 15 measurement data; the high and low ends of the scale are not apparent. Pie charts are useful for nominal type data where there is no logical sequence to the categories. Figure 2.6 shows numbers of patients treated with a variety of different cholesterol‐ lowering statin drugs in a group of United States hospitals in the years 2005 and 2006. Simple messages, such as the predominant use of Atorvastatin and Simvastatin are conveyed with excellent immediacy. The style of presentation is also pretty unthreatening to even a non‐numerate audience; people quite like the mental image of a pie being sliced into larger or smaller portions. Unfortunately, pie charts don’t convey changes in patterns as effectively as bar charts. Differences are easily seen in Figures 2.3 and 2.4, but in Figure 2.6 we have to check backwards and forwards between the two pie charts. Eventually, you may have noticed that the use of Simvastatin increased in 2006, but it most likely didn’t hit your eye immediately. (Simvastatin lost its US patent in 2006 and became available in a cheaper generic form, hence the increased use.) As with barcharts, the original numerical data is lost, unless we are prepared to add a lot of clutter to what are currently nice, clear figures. Unfortunately you may meet a certain academic snobbery concerning pie charts. Some folk seem to see them as ‘pretty pictures’ that any Tom, Dick or Harry could understand. 2.3.2 Exploded pie charts If one of the main points we want to convey is the increase in the use of Simvastatin in 2006, then Figure 2.6 is rather weak, but Figure 2.7 is a little better. By exploding the relevant slice we can ensure that it gets noticed. 2005 2006 Simva Atorva Rosuva Lova Prava Fluva Figure 2.6 Pie chart of prescriptions for various statins in 2005 and 2006 (Atorvastatin, Fluvastatin, Lovastatin, Pravastatin, Rosuvastatin and Simvastatin)
- 44. 16 cH2 Data presentation 2.4 Scatter plots 2.4.1 Dependent versus independent variable All the data presentation methods we’ve looked at so far are appropriate for cases where there is just one measured value (parameter) being reported. Not uncommonly, two parameters will have been determined and we want to look at the relationship between them. For this we normally use a scatter plot. At a number of places in this book we will meet the distinction between a ‘Dependent’ and an ‘Independent’ variable. If we find that two parameters (A and B) are related, then the question is how we would interpret that relationship. Is the value of A controlled by that of B or vice versa. For example, in a pharmacokinetic trial, the patients’ body weights and their clearances of theophylline would probably be related to one another. (Clearance describes the efficiency with which a drug is Pie charts Good: Friendly. Excellent immediacy for conveying which categories have the highest frequencies. Bad: Only appropriate for nominal type data. Less immediate identification of changes in patterns. (Exploded slices may help.) Difficult to include exact values without loss of clarity. Academic snobbery. 2005 2006 Simva Atorva Rosuva Lova Prava Fluva Figure 2.7 Exploded pie chart of prescriptions for various statins in 2005 and 2006 emphasising increased use of Simvastatin in 2006
- 45. 2.4 Scatter plots 17 eliminated from the body.) We could reasonably assume that it was the clearance that was controlled by the body weight and not vice versa. In this case clearance is the dependent variable and body weight is the independent. We then always plot the dependent variable up the vertical axis and the independent along the horizontal. It is also customary to describe this as ‘Plotting clearance against body weight’. (Note the order – it’s dependent against independent, not the other way round.) Figure 2.8 shows the data as a scatter plot. The vertical and horizontal axes may also be referred to as ‘y’ and ‘x’. Other terms that are used (albeit less frequently, since nobody can ever remember which is which) are the ‘Ordinate’ and ‘Abscissa’ (Figure 2.9). Dependent and independent variables The dependent variable should be plotted up the vertical (y) axis and the independent along the horizontal (x) axis. We say that ‘The dependent variable is plotted versus the independent’. 40 Clearance (L.h –1 ) 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 60 80 100 Weight (kg) Figure 2.8 Scattergram of theophylline clearance versus body weight
- 46. 18 cH2 Data presentation 2.4.2 Scatter plots for data where there is no identifiable dependency within the data In some cases, two parameters may show a clear relationship to one another, but neither can be identified as being dependent upon the other. This commonly arises when both parameters are dependent upon some third factor that causes them to vary together. An example of the latter would be the volume of distribution and clearance of a drug. (Volume of distribution describes the apparent space into which a drug dis- tributes when it spreads from the blood out into the tissues.) These two parameters are linked because both are dependent upon body weight. But there is no sense in which volume of distribution is dependent upon clearance or vice versa. In such a case we could equally well plot the data as volume versus clearance (Figure 2.10) or as clearance against volume. 2.4.3 Darell Huff and the ‘Gee Whiz graphs’ Back in the 1950s Darrel Huff drew attention to one of those tricks long beloved by presenters of misleading data. The basic idea is that you convert a disappointingly shallow graph into one that shoots up is a pleasingly dramatic way. To achieve this we stretch the vertical scale. Stretching the vertical axis could of course lead to a graph that was excessively tall, but the real secret is to use only a small part of the available range of figures. Consider some figures for improvement in cure rates for Fick–Tishus disease fol- lowing the introduction of MeToomycin. Figures 2.11 and 2.12 describe the results. They look very different at first glance, but actually convey exactly the same results. ‘Independent’, ‘X’ or ‘Abscissa’ ‘Dependent’, ‘Y’ or ‘Ordinate’ Figure 2.9 The vertical and horizontal axes may be referred to as ‘Dependent and Independent’, ‘y and x’ or the ‘Ordinate and Abscissa’
- 47. 2.4 Scatter plots 19 Larger patient: Larger Vol Dist and Clearance Smaller patient: Lower Vol Dist and Clearance 10.0 20.0 30.0 Vol Dist (l) 40.0 50.0 60.0 Clearance (L.h –1 ) 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 .00 Figure 2.10 Scattergram of data where there is no identifiable dependency. Here, Clearance happens to be plotted against Weight, but the reverse pattern would be equally acceptable. Vol Dist = Volume of Distribution MeToomycin introduced MeToomycin–Modest improvements over 25 years in recovery from Fick–Tishus disease. 1980 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 Year Recovery (%) 2000 2005 Figure 2.11 Line graph of recovery rates from Fick–Tishus disease since introduction of MeToomycin (honest but boring)
- 48. 20 cH2 Data presentation Both could be subjected to criticism. Figure 2.11 is rigorously honest, but 90% of it is boring blank space. Linked to this, there is also the problem that if we wanted to read off what the recovery rates were in any given year, it would be difficult to do so with any accuracy. Figure 2.12 is far worse, being deliberately dishonest. A very small range of values has been stretched out to form the vertical axis, exaggerating the apparent increase in recoveries. The real crime is then the ‘Gee whiz’ headline designed to help the more gullible reader rush out and stock up on MeToomycin. Apart from the abuse of the vertical axis in Figure 2.12, there is also the question that the graph only starts from 1980. We are given no idea what was going on before then. For all we know, general improvements in patient care may have been allowing a steady improvement in recovery rates for the last 20 years and the introduction of the alleged wonder drug might have had no impact whatsoever. Fick–Tishus disease beaten by MeToomycin!!! MeToomycin introduced 1980 70 69 68 67 66 65 1985 1990 1995 Year Recovery (%) 2000 2005 Figure 2.12 Deliberately misleading line graph that exaggerates the change in recovery rates by including only a small part of the range of values on the vertical axis The pathetic becomes dramatic A once brilliant scheme, now faded. Even the most modest increase (or decrease) can be made to look impressive by quietly suppressing the zero on the vertical axis and expanding a small part of the scale. The problem is that Darrell Huff, in the best statistics book ever written (‘How to lie with statistics’) blew the cover on this one 50 years ago. There is no way you will get away with it in any reputable journal. However, if you’re writing a polemical article for a popular magazine or newspaper, you can still fool many of the people much of the time.
- 49. 2.5 Pictorial symbols 21 An acceptable presentation of the data is shown in Figure 2.13. It is similar to Figure 2.12, but with a more modest headline and a clear indication that the vertical axis is incomplete. If data for the period prior to the introduction of MeToomycin is available, it would be useful to include it. From this figure we can see that there was no consistent progress with this disease during the 20 years prior to the introduction of MeToomycin. We would also gather that even after its introduction, progress was less than miraculous. 2.5 Pictorial symbols We have progressed from the least friendly mode of data presentation (numerical tables) to the much friendlier bar charts and pie charts. There is one more step we can take in our journey to nirvana – pictorial symbols. Figure 2.14 shows the utilisa- tion of Wundadrug in a large district hospital. From a strictly objective stand point these is absolutely nothing wrong with this figure. The meaning of the symbols is clearly defined. (One tablet symbol equals 10 000 tablets dispensed.) The escalating use of the drug is immediately obvious and we get an accurate sense of the scale of increase. So what’s wrong with it? Why would you be laughed at if you included it in a pres- entation to a ‘learned’ society? The answer is almost certainly its utter clarity. Any member of the ordinary public could understand it and therein lies the problem. The most important task for all academics is to convince the public we are much cleverer than them and, in that respect, Figure 2.14 is a disaster. Joe Bloggs on the number 13 bus could understand it just as easily as Professor Halfmoons from the Institute of Advanced Obscurantism. MeToomycin– Modest effect upon recovery from Fick–Tishus disease. (Note broken vertical axis.) MeToomycin introduced 1980 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 70 69 68 67 66 65 64 Recovery (%) Figure 2.13 Fair and informative line graph of MeToomycin data
- 50. 22 cH2 Data presentation While you may never be able to use pictorial symbols in the academic world, they can be a valuable way to make a point to the general public. Using Figure 2.14, you could achieve what is normally impossible – convey quantitative data to an audience that would instinctively run a mile from anything with numbers in it. 2.6 Chapter summary Data should always be explored graphically as well as statistically. A picture is worth 1000 words. Numerical tables allow readers to access the primary data for re‐analysis, but are unfriendly for less numerate readers and fail to convey the main features of the data with any great immediacy. Bar charts can be used for any type of data. They are reasonably friendly and convey the main aspects of the data with excellent immediacy. They usually result in the loss of access to the primary data. If data from a continuously varying scale is rendered into classes based upon ranges, a bar chart of such data is then called a histogram. Pie charts should only be used for nominal data. They are very friendly and con- vey which classes occur most commonly with great immediacy. Changes that have occurred do not necessarily show up very clearly (exploded charts may help). Access to the primary data is generally lost. Scatter plots are used to illustrate the relationship between two measured parameters. Where one parameter can be identified as being dependent upon the other, the dependent should be plotted up the vertical (y) axis and the independent along the horizontal (x). Beware of salespersons who make minor increases look disproportionately large by using only part of the y axis. Pictorial symbols offer a unique opportunity to smuggle quantitative information into public information, without scaring your readers. Compare the response you would get with Figure 2.14 to what you might expect from the same data presented as a numerical table. Detailed instructions for producing all the figures in this chapter using SPSS are provided on www.ljmu.ac.uk/pbs/rowestats. =10 000 tablets Use of Wundadrug 2013–2014 2012–2013 2011–2012 Figure 2.14 Pictorial representation of change in Wundadrug usage
- 53. Essential Statistics for the Pharmaceutical Sciences, Second Edition. Philip Rowe. © 2016 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Published 2016 by John Wiley Sons, Ltd. Descriptive statistics for interval scale data 3 3.1 Summarising data sets Experiments and trials frequently produce lists of figures that are too long to be easily comprehended and we need to produce one or two summary figures that will give the reader an accurate picture of the overall situation. With interval scale (continuous measurement) data, there are two aspects of the figures that we should be trying to describe: This chapter will … • Review the use of the mean, median or mode to indicate how small or large a set of values are and consider when each is most appropriate. • Describe the use of the standard deviation to indicate how variable a set of values are. • Show how quartiles can be used to convey information similar to that mentioned above, even in the presence of extreme outlying values. • Discuss the problem of describing ordinal data.
- 54. 26 cH3 Descriptive statistics for interval scale data • • How large are they? • • How variable are they? To indicate the first of these, we quote an ‘Indicator of central tendency’ and for the second an ‘Indicator of dispersion’. In this chapter we look at more than one possible approach to both of the above. It would be wrong to claim that one way is universally better than another. However, we can make rational choices for specific situations if we take account of the nature of the data and the purpose of the report. 3.2 Indicators of central tendency: Mean, median and mode The term ‘Indicator of central tendency’ describes any statistic that is used to indicate an average value around which the data is clustered. Three possible indicators of central tendency are in common use: the mean, median and mode. 3.2.1 Mean – Ten batches of vaccine The usual approach to showing the central tendency of a set of data is to quote the average. However, academics abhor such terms as their meanings are far too well known. We naturally prefer something a little more obscure – the ‘Mean’. Our first example set of data concerns a series of batches of vaccine. Each batch is intended to be of equal potency, but some manufacturing variability is una- voidable. A series of ten batches have been analysed and the results are shown in Table 3.1. The sum of all the potencies is 991.5; and dividing that by the number of observations (ten) gives an average or mean activity of 99.15 Units.mL–1 . The arithmetic is not open to serious question, but what we do need to consider is whether the figure we quote will convey an appropriate message to the reader. Although it may not strictly be justified, many readers will view that figure of 99.15 Units.mL–1 as indicating a typical figure. In other words, a batch with an activity of 99.15 Units.mL–1 is neither strikingly weak nor abnormally potent. A visual representation of the data is useful in testing whether this really is the case (see Figure 3.1). Descriptive statistics Indicators of central tendency: How large are the numbers? Indicators of dispersal: How variable are the numbers?
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- 56. Now I will leave Palamon, and tell you more of Arcite. Arcite, in Thebes, fell into such excessive sorrow for the loss of the beautiful lady that there never was a creature so sad before or since. He ceased to eat and drink, and sleep, and grew as thin and dry as an arrow. His eyes were hollow and dreadful to behold, and he lived always alone, mourning and lamenting night and day. He was so changed that no one could recognize his voice nor his look. Altogether he was the saddest picture of a man that ever was seen —except Palamon. One night he had a dream. He dreamed that the winged god Mercury stood before him, bidding him be merry; and commanded him to go to Athens, where all his misery should end. Arcite sprang up, and said, “I will go straight to Athens. Nor will I spare to see my lady through fear of death—in her presence I am ready even to die!” He caught up a looking-glass, and saw how altered his face was, so that no one would know him. And lie suddenly bethought him that now he was so disfigured with his grief, he might go and dwell in Athens without being recognized, and see his lady nearly every day. He dressed himself as a poor labourer, and accompanied only by a humble squire, who knew all he had suffered, he hastened to Athens. He went to the court of Theseus, and offered his services at the gate to drudge and draw, or do any menial work that could be given him. Well could he hew wood and carry water, for he was young and very strong. Now, it happened that the chamberlain of fair Emelye’s house took Arcite into his service. Thus Arcite became page of the chamber of Emelye the bright, and he called himself Philostrate. Never was man so well thought of!—he was so gentle of condition that he became known throughout the court. People said it would be
- 57. but right if Theseus promoted this Philostrate, and placed him in a rank which would better display his talents and virtues. At last Theseus raised him to be squire of his chamber, and gave him plenty of gold to keep up his degree. Moreover, his own private rent was secretly brought to him from Thebes year by year. But he spent it so cunningly that no one suspected him. In this crafty way Arcite lived a long time very happily, and bore himself so nobly both in peace and war that there was no man in the land dearer to Theseus. Now we will go back to Palamon. Poor Palamon had been for seven years in his terrible prison, and was quite wasted away with misery. There was not the slightest chance of getting out; and his great love made him frantic. At last, however, one May night some pitying friend helped him to give his jailor a drink which sent him into a deep sleep: so that Palamon made his escape from the tower. He fled from the city as fast as ever he could go, and hid himself in a grove; meaning afterwards to go by night secretly to Thebes, and beg all his friends to aid him to make war on Theseus. And then he would soon either die or get Emelye to wife.
- 58. Now wol I torn unto Arcite agayn, turn That litel wiste how nyh that was his care, know, near Til that fortune hadde brought him in the snare. The busy larke, messager of day, Salueth in hire song the morwe gray; saluteth And fyry Phebus ryseth up so brighte, That al the orient laugheth of the lighte, And with his stremes dryeth in the greves rays, groves The silver dropes, hongyng on the leeves. leaves And Arcite, that is in the court ryal royal[85] With Theseus, his squyer principal, squire Is risen, and loketh on the merye day. And for to doon his observaunce to May, do, ceremony Remembryng on the poynt of his desir, He on his courser, stertyng as the fir, starting, fire Is riden into the feeldes him to pleye fields, play Out of the court, were it a myle or tweye. And to the grove of which that I yow tolde, you By aventure his wey he gan to holde, chance, began To maken him a garland of the greves, make Were it of woodebynde or hawethorn leves, leaves And lowde he song ayens the sonne scheene: sang, against O May,[86] with al thy floures and thy greene, Welcome be thou, wel faire freissche May! I hope that I som grene gete may. some, may get And fro his courser, with a lusty herte, heart Into the grove ful hastily he sterte, started And in a pathe he romed up and doun, roamed Ther as by aventure this Palamoun where, chance Was in a busche, that no man might him see, For sore afered of his deth was he. afraid, death Nothing ne knew he that it was Arcite: God wot he wolde han trowed it ful lite. knows, guessed, little For soth is seyd, goon sithen many yeres, truly, gone, since That feld hath e en and the oode hath ee es e es ea s
- 59. That feld hath eyen, and the woode hath eeres. eyes, ears Now will I tell you of Arcite again, Who little guess’d how nigh him was his care Until his fortune brought him in the snare. The busy lark, the messenger of day, Saluteth in her song the morning grey; And fiery Phœbus riseth up so bright, That all the orient laugheth for the light; And in the woods he drieth with his rays The silvery drops that hang along the sprays. Arcite—unknown, yet ever waxing higher In Theseus’ royal court, now chiefest squire— Is risen, and looketh on the merry day: And, fain to offer homage unto May, He, mindful of the point of his desire, Upon his courser leapeth, swift as fire, And rideth to keep joyous holiday Out in the fields, a mile or two away. And, as it chanced, he made towards the grove, All thick with leaves, whereof I spake above, Eager to weave a garland with a spray Of woodbine, or the blossoms of the may. And loud against the sunshine sweet he sings, “O May, with all thy flowers and thy green things, Right welcome be thou, fairest, freshest May! Yield me of all thy tender green to-day!” Then from his courser merrily he sprang, And plunged into the thicket as he sang; Till in a path he chanced to make his way Nigh to where Palamon in secret lay. Sore frighted for his life was Palamon: But Arcite pass’d, unknowing and unknown; And neither guess’d his brother was hard by; But Arcite knew not any man was nigh. So as it said of old ho faithf ll
- 60. So was it said of old, how faithfully, ‘The woods have ears, the empty field can see.’ A man should be prudent, even when he fancies himself safest: for oftentimes come unlooked-for meetings. And little enough thought Arcite that his sworn brother from the tower was at hand, sitting as still as a mouse while he sang. Whan that Arcite hadde romed al his fill, And songen al the roundel lustily, Into a studie he fel sodeynly, reverie As don thes loveres in here queynte geeres, curious fashions Now in the croppe,[87] now doun in the breres, briars Now up, now doun, as boket in a welle. Now when Arcite long time had roam’d his fill, And sung all through the rondel lustily, He fell into dejection suddenly, As lovers in their strange way often do, Now in the clouds and now in abject wo, Now up, now down, as bucket in a well. He sat down and began to make a kind of song of lamentation. “Alas,” he cried, “the day that I was born! How long, O Juno, wilt thou oppress Thebes? All her royal blood is brought to confusion. I myself am of royal lineage, and yet now I am so wretched and brought so low, that I have become slave and squire to my mortal foe. Even my own proud name of Arcite I dare not bear, but pass by the worthless one of Philostrate! Ah, Mars and Juno, save me, and wretched Palamon, martyred by Theseus in prison! For all my pains are for my love’s sake, and Emelye, whom I will serve all my days.”
- 61. Ye slen me with youre eyen, Emelye; Ye ben the cause wherfore that I dye: be Of al the remenant of myn other care remnant Ne sette I nought the mountaunce of a tare, amount So that I couthe don aught to youre pleasaunce! were able to “You slay me with your eyes, O Emelye! You are the cause wherefore I daily die. For, ah, the worth of all my other woes Is not as e’en the poorest weed that grows, So that I might do aught to pleasure you!” Palamon, hearing this, felt as though a cold sword glided through his heart. He was so angry that he flung himself forth like a madman upon Arcite:—
- 62. And seyde: False[88] Arcyte—false traitour wikke, wicked Now art thou hent, that lovest my lady so, For whom that I have al this peyne and wo, And art my blood, and to my counseil sworn, counsel As I ful ofte have told the heere byforn, before now And hast byjaped here duke Theseus, tricked And falsly chaunged hast thy name thus; I wol be deed, or elles thou schalt dye. dead, else Thou schalt not love my lady Emelye, But I wil love hire oonly and no mo; more For I am Palamon, thy mortal fo. foe And though that I no wepne have in this place, weapon But out of prisoun am astert by grace, escaped I drede not, that outher thou schalt dye, fear Or thou ne schalt not loven Emelye. Ches which thou wilt, for thou schalt not asterte. escape This Arcite, with ful dispitous herte, there Whan he him knew, and hadde his tale herde, As fers as a lyoun, pulleth out a swerde, fierce And seide thus: By God that sitteth above, Nere it that thou art sike and wood for love, were it not And eek that thou no wepne hast in this place, also Thou schuldest nevere out of this grove pace, step That thou ne schuldest deyen of myn hond. die For I defye the seurté and the bond defy Which that thou seyst that I have maad to the; sayest What, verray fool, thenk wel that love is fre! And I wol love hire mawgré al thy might. In spite of But, for thou art a gentil perfight knight, because And wilnest to dereyne hire by batayle, art willing Have heere my trouthe, to morwe I nyl not fayle, pledge Withouten wityng of eny other wight, without knowledge That heer I wol be founden as a knight, will, found And bryngen harneys[89] right inough for the; And ches the best and lef the o st fo me
- 63. And ches the best, and lef the worst for me. And mete and drynke this night wil I brynge Inough for the, and clothes for thy beddynge. And if so be that thou my lady wynne, win And sle me in this wode, ther I am inne, wood Thou maist wel have thy lady as for me. This Palamon answerde, I graunt it the. Crying, “False, wicked traitor! false Arcite! Now art thou caught, that lov’st my lady so, For whom I suffer all this pain and wo! Yet art my blood—bound to me by thy vow, As I have told thee oftentimes ere now— And hast so long befool’d Duke Theseus And falsely hid thy name and nurture thus! For all this falseness thou or I must die. Thou shalt not love my lady Emelye— But I will love her and no man but I, For I am Palamon, thine enemy! And tho’ I am unarmed, being but now Escap’d from out my dungeon, care not thou, For nought I dread—for either thou shalt die Now—or thou shalt not love my Emelye. Choose as thou wilt—thou shalt not else depart.” But Arcite, with all fury in his heart, Now that he knew him and his story heard, Fierce as a lion, snatch’d he forth his sword, Saying these words: “By Him who rules above, Were’t not that thou art sick and mad for love, And hast no weapon—never should’st thou move, Living or like to live, from out this grove, But thou shouldest perish by my hand! on oath I cast thee back the bond and surety, both, Which thou pretendest I have made to thee. What? very fool! remember love is free, And I ill lo e he ma g é all th might!
- 64. And I will love her maugré all thy might! But since thou art a worthy, noble knight, And willing to contest her in fair fight, Have here my troth, to-morrow, at daylight, Unknown to all, I will not fail nor fear To meet thee as a knight in combat here, And I will bring full arms for me and thee; And choose the best, and leave the worst for me! And I will bring thee meat and drink to-night, Enough for thee, and bedding as is right: And if the victory fall unto thine hand, To slay me in this forest where I stand, Thou may’st attain thy lady-love, for me!” Then Palamon replied—“I grant it thee.” Then these, who had once been friends, parted till the morrow.
- 65. O Cupide, out of alle charite! all O regne that wolt no felaw have with the! kingdom Ful soth is seyd, that love ne lordschipe truly, nor Wol not, thonkes, have no felaschipe. willingly, fellowship Wel fynden that Arcite and Palamoun. find Arcite is riden anon unto the toun And on the morwe, or it were dayes light, before Ful prively two harneys hath he dight, prepared Bothe suffisaunt and mete to darreyne sufficient The batayl in the feeld betwix hem tweyne. field, them, two And on his hors alone as he was born, carried He caryed al this harneys him byforn; before And in the grove, at tyme and place i-sette, This Arcite and this Palamon ben mette. be Tho chaungen gan here colour in here face, then, their Right as the honter in the regne of Trace kingdom That stondeth in the gappe with a spere, Whan honted is the lyoun or the bere, And hereth him come ruschyng in the greves, groves And breketh bothe the bowes and the leves, breaking And thenketh, Here cometh my mortel enemy, Withoute faile, he mot be deed or I; without For eyther I mot slen him at the gappe, Or he moot slee me, if it me myshappe: So ferden they, in chaungyng of here hew, their hue As fer as eyther of hem other knewe. far, them Ther nas no good day, ne no saluyng; was not, saluting But streyt withouten wordes rehersyng, Everich of hem helpeth to armen other, each, helped As frendly, as he were his owen brother; own And thanne with here scharpe speres stronge They foyneden ech at other wonder longe, foined Tho it semede that this Palamon then, seemed In his fightyng were as a wood lyoun, mad And as a cruel tygre was Arcite:[90] As ilde boo es gonne the to sm te began
- 66. As wilde boores gonne they to smyte, began That frothen white as fome, for ire wood, their madness Up to the ancle faught they in here blood.[91] their And in this wise I lete hem fightyng dwelle; And forth I wol of Theseus yow telle. you O god of love, that hast no charity! O realm, that wilt not bear a rival nigh! Truly ’tis said, that love and lordship ne’er Will be contented only with a share. Arcite and Palamon have found it so. Arcite is ridden soon the town unto: And, on the morrow, ere the sun was high, Two harness hath he brought forth privily, Meet and sufficing for the lonely fight Out in the battle-field mid daisies white. And riding onward solitarily All this good armour on his horse bore he: And at the time and place which they had set Ere long Arcite and Palamon are met. To change began the colour of each face— Ev’n as the hunter’s, in the land of Thrace, When at a gap he standeth with a spear, In the wild hunt of lion or of bear, And heareth him come rushing through the wood, Crashing the branches in his madden’d mood, And think’th, “Here com’th my mortal enemy, Now without fail or he or I must die; For either I must slay him at the gap, Or he must slay me if there be mishap.” So fared the knights so far as either knew, When, seeing each, each deepen’d in his hue. There was no greeting—there was no ‘Good day,’ But mute, without a single word, straightway Each one in arming turn’d to help the other, As like a f iend as tho gh he e e his b othe
- 67. As like a friend as though he were his brother. And after that, with lances sharp and strong, They dash’d upon each other—lief and long. You might have fancied that this Palamon, Fighting so blindly, were a mad liòn, And like a cruel tiger was Arcite. As two wild boars did they together smite, That froth as white as foam for rage—they stood And fought until their feet were red with blood. Thus far awhile I leave them to their fight. And now what Theseus did I will recite. Then something happened that neither of them expected. It was a bright clear day, and Theseus, hunting with his fair queen Ipolita, and Emelye, clothed all in green, came riding by after the hart, with all the dogs around them; and as they followed the hart, suddenly Theseus looked out of the dazzle of the sun, and saw Arcite and Palamon in sharp fight, like two bulls for fury. The bright swords flashed to and fro so hideously that it seemed as though their smallest blows would fell an oak. But the duke knew not who they were that fought.[92] Theseus smote his spurs into his horse, and galloped in between the knights, and, drawing his sword, cried, “Ho![93] No more, on pain of death! By mighty Mars, he dies who strikes a blow in my presence!” Then Theseus asked them what manner of men they were, who dared to fight there, without judge or witness, as though it were in royal lists?[94] You may imagine the two men turning on Theseus, breathless and bloody with fight, weary with anger, and their vengeance still unslaked.
- 68. This Palamon answerde hastily, And seyde: Sire, what nedeth wordes mo? need We han the deth deserved bothe tuo. two Tuo woful wrecches ben we, tuo kaytyves wretches, captives That ben encombred of oure owne lyves, encumbered by And as thou art a rightful lord and juge Ne yeve us neyther mercy ne refuge. give us not And sle me first, for seynte charite; holy But sle my felaw eek as wel as me. also Or sle him first; for, though thou know him lyte, little This is thy mortal fo, this is Arcite, That fro thy lond is banyscht on his heed For which he hath i-served to be deed. deserved For this is he that come to thi gate And seyde, that he highte Philostrate. was named Thus hath he japed the ful many a yer, befooled And thou hast maad of him thy cheef squyer. made And this is he that loveth Emelye. For sith the day is come that I schal dye, I make pleynly my confessioun, That I am thilke woful Palamoun, that That hath thy prisoun broke wikkedly. wickedly I am thy mortal foo, and it am I That loveth so hoote Emelye the brighte, That I wol dye present in hire sighte. Therfore I aske deeth and my juwyse; sentence But slee my felaw in the same wyse, slay For bothe we have served to be slayn. This worthy duk answerde anon agayn, And seyde: This is a schort conclusioun: Your owne mouth, by your confessioun, own Hath dampned you bothe, and I wil it recorde. condemned It needeth nought to pyne yow with the corde.[95] Ye schul be deed by mighty Mars the reede! dead
- 69. And Palamon made answer hastily, And said—“O Sire, why should we waste more breath? For both of us deserve to die the death. Two wretched creatures are we, glad to die Tired of our lives, tired of our misery— And as thou art a rightful lord and judge So give us neither mercy nor refùge! And slay me first, for holy charity— But slay my fellow too as well as me! —Or slay him first, for though thou little know, This is Arcite—this is thy mortal foe, Who from thy land was banished on his head, For which he richly merits to be dead! Yea, this is he who came unto thy gate, And told thee that his name was Philostrate— Thus year by year hath he defied thine ire— And thou appointest him thy chiefest squire —And this is he who loveth Emelye! “For since the day is come when I shall die, Thus plain I make confession, and I own I am that miserable Palamon Who have thy prison broken wilfully! I am thy mortal foe,—and it is I Who love so madly Emelye the bright, That I would die this moment in her sight! Therefore I ask death and my doom to-day— But slay my fellow in the selfsame way:— For we have both deservëd to be slain.” And angrily the duke replied again, “There is no need to judge you any more, Your own mouth, by confession, o’er and o’er Condemns you, and I will the words record. There is no need to pain you with the cord. Ye both shall die, by mighty Mars the red!”
- 70. Then the queen, ‘for verray wommanhede,’ began to weep, and so did Emelye, and all the ladies present. It seemed pitiful that two brave men, both of high lineage, should come to such an end, and only for loving a lady so faithfully. All the ladies prayed Theseus to have mercy on them, and pardon the knights for their sakes. They knelt at his feet, weeping and entreating him— And wold have kist his feet ther as he stood, Till atte laste aslaked was his mood; For pite renneth sone in gentil herte, runneth And though he first for ire quok and sterte, shook He hath considerd shortly in a clause The trespas of hem bothe, and eek the cause: And although that his ire hire gylt accusede, their Yet in his resoun he hem bothe excusede. them And would have kissed his feet there as he stood, Until at last appeasëd was his mood, For pity springeth soon in gentle heart. And though he first for rage did quake and start, He hath considered briefly in the pause The greatness of their crime, and, too, its cause; And while his passion had their guilt accused, Yet now his calmer reason both excused. Everybody had sympathy for those who were in love;[96] and Theseus’ heart ‘had compassion of women, for they wept ever in on’ (continually). So the kindly duke softened, and said to all the crowd good- humouredly, “What a mighty and great lord is the god of love!”
- 71. Lo, her this Arcite and this Palamoun, here That quytely weren out of my prisoun, freely (quit) And might have lyved in Thebes ryally, royally And witen I am here mortal enemy, know, their And that here deth lith in my might also, their, lieth And yet hath love, maugré here eyghen tuo, I-brought hem hider bothe for to dye. Now loketh, is nat that an heih folye? look, high Who may not ben a fole, if that he love? be Byholde for Goddes sake that sitteth above, Se how they blede! be they nought wel arrayed! Thus hath here lord, the god of love, hem payed them Here wages and here fees for here servise. their And yet they wenen for to ben ful wise, think That serven love, for ought that may bifalle. serve But this is yette the beste game of alle, That sche, for whom they have this jolitee, fun Can hem therfore as moche thank as me. can them, much Sche woot no more of al this hoote fare, knows By God, than wot a cuckow or an hare. knows But al moot ben assayed, hoot or colde; must be tried A man moot ben a fool other yong or olde; must be, either I woot it by myself ful yore agon: For in my tyme a servant was I on. one “Here are this Arcite and this Palamon, Safe out of prison both, who might have gone And dwelt in Thebes city royally, Knowing I am their mortal enemy, And that their death within my power lies: Yet hath blind Love, in spite of both their eyes, Led them both hither only to be slain! Behold the height of foolishness most plain! Who is so great a fool as one in love? Fo me c ’s sake b all the gods abo e
- 72. For mercy’s sake—by all the gods above, See how they bleed! a pretty pair are they! Thus their liege lord, the god of love, doth pay Their wages, and their fees for service done; And yet each thinks himself a wise man’s son Who serveth Love, whatever may befall. But this is still the greatest joke of all, That she, the cause of this rare jollity, Owes them about as many thanks as I! She knew no more of all this hot to-do, By Mars! than doth a hare or a cuckoo! But one must have one’s fling, be’t hot or cold; A man will play the fool either young or old. I know it by myself—for long ago In my young days I bowed to Cupid’s bow.” This is as if he should say, “These two foolish boys have got nothing from their liege lord, the god of love, but a very narrow escape with their heads. And Emelye herself knew no more of all this hot business than a cuckoo! But I, too, was young once, and in love, and so I won’t be hard upon them!” “I will pardon you,” he added, “for the queen’s sake and Emelye’s, but you must swear to me never to come and make war on me at any time, but be ever my friends in all that you may for the future.” And they were very thankful and promised as he commanded. Then Theseus spoke again, in a kind, half laughing way:—
- 73. To speke of real lynage and riches, speak, royal Though that sche were a quene or a prynces, princess Ilk of yow bothe is worthy douteles each To wedden, when time is, but natheles marry, nevertheless I speke as for my suster Emelye, For whom ye have this stryf and jelousye, Ye woot youreself, sche may not wedde two know At oones, though ye faughten ever mo; once, fought That oon of yow, or be him loth or leef, unwilling or willing He mot go pypen in an ivy leef;[97] must This is to say, sche may nought now have bothe, Al be ye never so jelous, ne so wrothe. angry “And as for wealth and rank, and royal birth, Although she were the noblest upon earth, Each of you both deserves to wed your flame Being of equal worth; but all the same It must be said, my sister Emelye (For whom ye have this strife and jealousy), You see yourselves full well that she can never Wed two at once although ye fought for ever! But one of you, whether he likes or no, Must then go whistle, and endure his wo. That is to say, she cannot have you both, Though you be never so jealous or so wroth.” With that he made them this offer—that Palamon and Arcite should each bring in a year’s time (50 weeks) a hundred knights, armed for the lists,[98] and ready to do battle for Emelye; and whichever knight won, Palamon and his host or Arcite and his host, should have her for his wife. Who looks happy now but Palamon? and who springs up with joy but Arcite! Every one was so delighted with the kindness of Theseus
- 74. that they all went down on their knees to thank him—but of course Palamon and Arcite went on their knees most. Now, would you like to know all the preparations Theseus made for this great tournament? First, the theatre for the lists had to be built, where the tournament was to take place. This was built round in the form of a compass, with hundreds of seats rising up on all sides one behind another, so that everybody could see the fight, and no one was in anybody’s way. The walls were a mile round, and all of stone, with a ditch running along the outside. At the east and at the west stood two gates of white marble, and there was not a carver, or painter, or craftsman of any kind that Theseus did not employ to decorate the theatre. So that there never was such a splendid place built in all the earth before or since. Then he made three temples: one over the east gate for Venus, goddess of love; one over the west gate for Mars, who is god of war; and towards the north, he built a temple all of alabaster and red coral; and that was for Diana. All these beautiful things cost more money than would fill a big carriage. Now I will tell you what the temples were like inside. First, in the Temple of Venus were wonderful paintings of feasts, dancing, and playing of music, and beautiful gardens, and mountains, and people walking about with the ladies they liked. All these were painted on the walls in rich colour. There was a statue of Venus besides, floating on a sea of glass, and the glass was made like waves that came over her. She had a citole in her hand, which is an instrument for playing music on; and over her head doves were flying. Little Cupid was also there, with his wings, and his bow and arrows, and his eyes blinded, as he is generally made.
- 75. Then, in the Temple of Mars, who is the god of war, there were all sorts of dangers and misfortunes painted. Battles, and smoke, and forests all burning with flames, and men run over by carts, and sinking ships, and many other awful sights. Then a smith forging iron—swords and knives for war. The statue of Mars was standing on a car, armed and looking as grim as possible: there was a hungry wolf beside him. As for the Temple of Diana, that was very different from Venus’s. Venus wishes everybody to marry the one they love. Diana does not want any one to marry at all, but to hunt all day in the fields. So the pictures in Diana’s Temple were all about hunting, and the merry life in the forest. Her statue showed her riding on a stag, with dogs running round about, and underneath her feet was the moon. She was dressed in the brightest green, and she had a bow and arrows in her hand. Now you know all about the splendid theatre and the three temples. At last the day of the great tournament approached! Palamon and Arcite came to Athens as they had promised, each bringing with him a hundred knights, well armed; and never before, since the world began, was seen a sight so magnificent. Everybody who could bear arms was only too anxious to be among the two hundred knights—and proud indeed were those who were chosen! for you know, that if to-morrow there should be a like famous occasion, every man in England or anywhere else, who had a fair lady-love, would try to be there. All the knights that flocked to the tournament wore shining armour according to their fancy. Some wore a coat of mail, which is chain- armour, and a breast-plate, and a gipon: others wore plate-armour, made of broad sheets of steel; some carried shields, some round targets. Again, some took most care of their legs, and carried an axe; others bore maces of steel.
- 76. Larger Image Larger Image It was on a Sunday, about nine o’clock in the morning, when all the lords and knights came into Athens.
- 77. With Palamon came the great Licurgus, King of Thrace; with Arcite came the mighty King of India, Emetrius: and I must give you the exact account of how these two kings looked, which is most minute. I should not wonder if these were the likenesses of Palamon and Arcite themselves.[99] First, then, comes—
- 78. Ligurge himself, the grete kyng of Trace; Blak was his berd, and manly was his face. The cercles of his eyen in his heed eyes They gloweden bytwixe yolw and reed, between And lik a griffoun loked he aboute, With kempe heres[100] on his browes stowte; stout His lymes grete, his brawnes hard and stronge, limbs, muscles His schuldres brood, his armes rounde and longe. shoulders And as the gyse was in his contre, guise Ful heye upon a chare of gold stood he, high, car With foure white boles in a trays. bulls, the traces In stede of cote armour on his harnays,[101] With nales yolwe, and bright as eny gold, He had a bere skyn, cole-blak for-old. very old His lange heer y-kempt byhynd his bak, long hair combed As eny raven fether it schon for blak. shone A wrethe of gold arm-gret, and huge of wighte, Upon his heed, set ful of stoones brighte, Of fyne rubies and of fyn dyamauntz. diamonds Aboute his chare ther wenten white alauntz,[102] Twenty and mo, as grete as eny stere, steer (bullock) To hunt at the lyoun or at the bere, And folwed him, with mosel fast i-bounde, muzzle Colerd with golde, and torettz[103] fyled rounde. spikes, filled Licurge himself, the mighty king of Thrace; Black was his beard, and manly was his face, The circles of his eyes within his head Glow’d of a hue part yellow and part red, And like a griffon lookëd he about, With hair down-combed upon his brows so stout; His limbs were great, his muscles hard and strong, His shoulders broad, his arms were round and long. Acco ding to the fashion of his land
- 79. According to the fashion of his land, Full high upon a car of gold stood he, And to the car four bulls were link’d, milk-white. ’Stead of coat-armour on his harness bright, With yellow nails and bright as any gold, A bear’s skin hung, coal-black, and very old. His flowing hair was comb’d behind his back, As any raven’s wing it shone for black. A wreath of gold, arm-thick, of monstrous weight, Crusted with gems, upon his head was set, Full of fine rubies and clear diamonds. About his car there leapëd huge white hounds, Twenty and more, as big as any steer, To chase the lion or to hunt the bear, And follow’d him, with muzzles firmly bound, Collar’d in gold, with golden spikes around. The other portrait has a less barbaric splendour about it.
- 80. The gret Emetreus, the kyng of Ynde, India Uppon a steede bay, trapped in steel, Covered with cloth of gold dyapred wel, diapered like Cam rydyng lyk the god of armes, Mars. His coote armour was of a cloth of Tars,[104] Cowched of perlys whyte, round and grete. overlaid His sadil was of brend gold new i-bete; burnished A mantelet[105] upon his schuldre hangyng mantle Bret-ful of rubies reed, as fir sparclyng. cram-full, fire His crispe her lik rynges was i-ronne, run And that was yalwe, and gliteryng as the sonne. yellow-brown His nose was heigh, his eyen bright cytryn, His lippes rounde, his colour was sangwyn, A fewe freknes in his face y-spreynd, sprinkled Betwixe yolwe and somdel blak y-meynd, somewhat, mixed And as a lyoun he his lokyng caste. looking Of fyve and twenty yeer his age I caste. suppose His berd was wel bygonne for to sprynge; His voys was as a trumpe thunderynge. Upon his heed he wered of laurer grene laurel A garlond freische and lusty for to sene. Upon his hond he bar for his deduyt[106] hand, delight An egle tame, as eny lylie whyt. eagle, any The great Emetrius, the Indian King, Upon a bay steed trapp’d in shining steel, Covered with cloth of gold from head to heel, Came riding like the god of armies, Mars; His coat-armour was made of cloth of Tars, O’erlaid with pearls all white and round and great: His saddle was of smooth gold, newly beat. A mantlet on his shoulder as he came, Shone, cramm’d with rubies sparkling like red flame, And his crisp hair in shining rings did run, Yello it as and glitte ing as the s n
- 81. Yellow it was, and glittering as the sun. His nose was high, his eyes were bright citrine, His lips were round, his colour was sanguine, With a few freckles scattered here and there, ’Twixt black and yellow mingling they were, And lion-like his glance went to and fro. His age was five and twenty years, I trow. A downy beard had just begun to spring, His voice was like a trumpet thundering. Upon his head he wore a garland green, Of laurel, fresh, and pleasant to be seen. Upon his wrist he bore for his delight An eagle, tame, and as a lily white. There was a great festival, and the dancing, and minstrelsy, and feasting, and rich array of Theseus’ palace were most wondrous to behold. I should never have time to tell you What ladies fayrest ben, or best daunsynge, be Or which of hem can carole[107] best and singe, sing Ne who most felyngly speketh of love; What haukes sitten on the perche above, sit What houndes liggen on the floor adoun. lie What ladies danced the best, or fairest were, Or which of them best sung or carol’d there; Nor who did speak most feelingly of love, What hawks were sitting on the perch above, What hounds lay crouching on the floor adown. Then there were the temples to visit, to ask grace and favour from the gods. Palamon went to the Temple of Venus, the goddess of love, and prayed her to help him to gain his lady. Venus promised him success.
- 82. Arcite thought it more prudent to go to the god of war, Mars; so he sacrificed in his temple, and prayed for victory in the lists. Mars promised him the victory. But Emelye did not wish to marry either of her lovers. She went to the temple of Diana early in the morning, and asked the goddess to help her not to get married! She preferred her free life, walking in the woods and hunting. She made two fires on Diana’s altar: but Diana would not listen to her, and both the fires went out suddenly, with a whistling noise, and Emelye was so frightened that she began to cry. Then Diana told her she was destined to marry one of these poor knights who had suffered so much for her, and so she must make up her mind to it. Emelye then departed: but Mars and Venus had a great dispute, because, as you know, they had promised success to each of the two knights, and Emelye could not marry both. Now, you shall see how each of them managed to gain a victory. All Monday was spent in jousting and dancing, and early on Tuesday began the great tourney. Such a stamping of horses and chinking of harness![108] Such lines and crowds of horsemen! There you might see armour so rare and so rich, wrought with goldsmith’s work, and embroidery, and steel! Helmets and hauberks and trappings—squires nailing on the spearheads, and buckling helmets—rubbing up the shields, and lacing the plates with thongs of leather. Nobody was idle.
- 83. The fomy stedes on the golden bridel Gnawyng, and faste the armurers also With fyle and hamer prikyng to and fro; Yemen on foote, and communes many oon commons many a one With schorte staves, thikke as they may goon. go The foamy steeds upon the golden bridle Gnawing, and fast the armourers also With file and hammer pricking to and fro; Yeomen on foot, and flocking thro’ the land Commons with short staves, thick as they can stand. Pipes, trumpets, drums, and clarions were heard, that serve to drown the noise of battle with music—little groups of people gathered about the palace, here three—there ten—arguing the merits of the two Theban knights. Some said one thing, some another. Some backed the knight with the black beard, others the bald one, others the knight with close hair. Some said, “He looks grim, and will fight!” and “He hath an axe that weighs twenty pound!” Duke Theseus sits at a window, like a god on his throne. The masses of people are pressing towards him to see him, and to salute him humbly, and to hear his commands, and his decree! A herald on a tall scaffold shouts out “Ho!” till all the noise of the people is hushed, and when all is quiet, he tells them the duke’s will: — “My lord hath of his wisdom considered that it were destruction to gentle blood to fight in this tourney, as in mortal battle. Therefore, to save life, he now changes his first purpose.
- 84. “No arrows, pole-axe, or short knife shall be brought into the lists, no short sword, either in the hand or worn at the side. No man shall ride more than one course with a sharp spear. Whoso comes to harm shall be taken, and not slain, but brought to the stake, there to abide according to order. And should a chieftain on either side be taken, or slay his fellow, no longer shall the tourney last. God speed you, go forth, and lay on fast! Fight your fill with mace and longsword!”[109] The shouts of all the people rang right up to the sky, “God save such a good lord, who will have no bloodshed!” Up go the trumpets and the music, and through the broad city, all hung with cloth of gold, the crowds ride to the lists. The noble duke rode first, and the Theban knights on either side, afterwards came the queen and fair Emelye, and then all the company followed according to their rank. When they came to the lists, everybody pressed forward to the seats. Arcite goes in at the west gate by Mars’ temple, with a red banner, and all his hundred knights. At the same moment Palamon enters the east gate by Venus’ temple, with his white banner and brave host. Never was there such a sight. The two companies were so evenly matched there was no choosing between them. Then they ranged themselves in two ranks; the names were read out, that there might be no cheating in the numbers; the gates were shut, and loud was the cry, “Do now your devoir, young knights proud!” The heralds have ceased to ride up and down. The trumpets ring out —in go the spears steadily to the rests—the sharp spur is in the horse’s side. There you may see who can joust and who can ride— there the shafts of the spears shiver on the thick shields—he feels the thrust right through the body. Up spring the lances twenty foot high, out fly the swords like silver—helmets are crushed and shivered—out bursts the blood in stern, red streams! See, the strong horses stumble—down go all—a man rolls under foot like a ball. See, he fences at his foe with a truncheon, and hustles him while his
- 85. horse is down. He is hurt through the body, and is dragged off to the stake—and there he must stay. Another is led off to that other side. All the humane orders of Theseus are forgotten. From time to time Theseus stops the fray to give time for refreshment and drink, should the combatants need it. Often have these two Thebans fought before now; each has often unhorsed the other. But in spite of Theseus’ commands, never was tiger bereft of its young so cruel in the hunt, as Arcite in his jealousy was on Palamon. Never was hunted lion, mad with hunger, so eager for blood as Palamon for Arcite’s life. See, they are both bleeding. As the day went by, many in the field were carried away by excitement. The strong King Emetrius flew at Palamon as he fought with Arcite, and ran his sword into him. Then there was a frightful uproar. Emetrius could not govern himself, and was dragged off to the stake by the force of twenty men, and while trying to rescue Palamon, the great King Licurge was borne down; and King Emetrius, despite his strength, was flung out of his saddle a sword’s length, so violently Palamon hit at him; but he was carried to the stake for all that, and this tumult put an end to the tourney, according to the rule Theseus had made. How bitterly wretched was Palamon, now that he could not ride any more at his foe! Only by an unfair attack had he lost ground. Theseus, seeing them all fighting together wildly, cried out “Ho!” and stopped the tourney. Then he said, “I will be a true judge, and impartial. Arcite of Thebes shall have Emelye, who, by good luck, has fairly won her!” Shouts of delight answered Theseus, till it seemed as if the theatre would fall with the noise. It is said that Venus was so disappointed at Palamon, her knight, losing, that she wept, and went for help to her father, the god Saturn. Saturn said to her, “Daughter, hold thy peace; Mars has had his way, but you shall yet have yours!”
- 86. Now you shall see what happened. This fierce Arcite, hearing the duke’s decision, and the cries and yells of the heralds and all the people, raised his visor and spurred his horse along the great place and looked up at Emelye. And Emelye looked down at him kindly (for women always follow the favour of fortune), and smiled. It was in this sweet moment, when he was off his guard, that something startled his tired and excited horse, and it leapt aside and foundered as it leapt, and before Arcite could save himself, he was flung down, and his breast-bone smashed against the saddle-bow— so that he lay as dead, his face black with the sudden rush of blood. Poor Arcite! to lose all, just in the moment of supreme joy and victory! He was carried out of the lists, broken-hearted, to Theseus’ palace, where his harness was cut off him, and he was laid in a beautiful bed. He was still conscious, and always asking piteously for Emelye. As for Duke Theseus, he came back to the town of Athens in great state and cheer. Were it not for this unlucky accident at the end, there had not been a single mishap, and as the leeches said Arcite would soon be well again, that was no such great disaster. None had been actually killed, though many had been grievously wounded: which was very gratifying. For all the broken arms could be mended, and the bruises and cuts healed with salves and herbs and charms. There had even been no discomfiture, for falls did not count as shame, nor was it any disgrace to be dragged to a stake with kicks and hootings, and held there hand and foot all alone, whilst one’s horse was driven out by the sticks of the grooms. That was no disgrace, for it was not cowardice; and such things must happen at a tourney. And so all the people made mirth. The duke gave beautiful gifts to all the foreign knights, and there were ever so many more shows and feasts for the next three days,
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