November 2011



Surge Research Support
www.ecofin-surge.co.in
Table of Contents




           Contents                                              Page

           1. Important Rates to Remember                 …………       3

           2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators          …………       4

           3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators           …………       6

           4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators         …………       7

           5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates             …………       9

           6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates             …………      11

           7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets              …………      14

           8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows              …………      17

           9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets          …………      20

           10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators       …………      22

           11. Global Economy — Stock Indices             …………      23

           12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices                   24
           Special Feature —
           RBI's Review of Monetary Policy for Q2 of 2011-12        25


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E-UpDates November 2011                             2            Surge Research Support
GDP                                        IIP*
                     2010-11               8.50%                       Aug-11                4.10%
                     2009-10               8.00%                       Aug-10                4.50%



       As on           31-Oct-11      30-Oct-10                       As on           31-Oct-11         30-Oct-10

Bank rate                  6.00%            6.00%              CRR                      6.00%            6.00%

Repo rate                  8.50%            6.00%              Base Rate           10.00-10.75% 7.50-8.00%

Reverse repo               7.50%            5.00%              CMR                 6.90-8.62%         4.75-8.00%




                           Inflation (WPI)                        Oil Price (World Average)
                        Sep-11             9.72%                       Oct-11            106.04
                        Sep-10             8.98%                       Oct-10                79.32
                                                               Spot Price FOB $ per barrel




        $/Rupee Rate                                               Purchasing Managers Index            October

    31-Oct-11             48.87                                   HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI                   52.0

    29-Oct-10             44.54                                  HSBC Markit Services PMI                 49.1

RBI Reference rate



                     *New Series with Base : 2004-05=100.
                     For Global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html
                     For explanations visit http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html




E-UpDates November 2011                                3                           Surge Research Support
Growth Indicators

            GDP Growth Rates                 Q1           Q2            Q3          Q4            FY
                2011-12                     7.7*                                                  7.7*
                2010-11                     8.8*          8.9           8.3         7.8            8.5



GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices]            Q1          Rs.Crore    YoY Growth      Q1          Rs.Crore    YoY Growth
                                         2010-11*                    (Share in    2011-12*                   (Share in
                                                                       GDP)                                    GDP)
                                                                        (%)                                     (%)
       1 Agriculture, Forestry &
         Fishing                                        160,771         2.4                     167,091         3.9
       2 Mining & Quarrying                              26,354         7.4                      26,832         1.8
       3 Manufacturing
                                                        183,488        10.6                     196,699         7.2
       4 Electricity, Gas & Water
         Supply.                                        23,204          5.5                     25,042          7.9
       5 Construction
                                                        93,514          7.7                     94,639          1.2
       6 Trade, Hotels, Transport
         and Communication                              299,600        12.1                     337,872        12.8
       7 Financing, Insurance,
         Real Estate & Business
         Services.                                      205,870         9.8                     224,574         9.1
       8 Community, Social &
         Personal Services.                             145,485         8.2                     153,589         5.6
       9 GDP at factor cost
         (1 to 8)                                       1,138,286       8.8                   1,226,339         7.7
      10 Private final consumption
         expenditure
                                                        748,395      9.5 (61.7)                 795,683      6.3 (60.5)
      11 Government final
         consumption expenditure
                                                        134,161      6.7 (11.1)                 136,935      2.1 (10.4)
      12 Gross fixed capital
         formation                                      380,544     11.1 (31.4)                 410,533      7.9 (31.2)
      13 Changes in stocks                              43,788         (3.6)                    45,852         (3.5)
      14 Valuables                                      29,240         (2.4)                    40,723         (3.1)
      15 Exports
                                                        257,587      9.8 (21.2)                 320,247     24.3 (24.3)
      16 Less Imports                                   351,037     15.2 (28.9)                 433,824     23.6 (33.0)
      17 Discrepancies                                  -30,058       (-2.5)                     -755         (-0.1)
      18 GDP at market price
         (10 to 17)                                     1,212,620   9.1 (100)                 1,315,395     8.5 (100)

         *Estimates based on the New series of IIP.




   E-UpDates November 2011                                  4                      Surge Research Support
2009-10 (QE)               Rs.Crore               YoY Growth               2010-11            Rs.Crore     YoY Growth
                                                                                                      (%)                    (RE)                              (%)

        18 GDP at market price
                                                                            48,69,317                 9.1                                      5,298,129         8.8
        19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less
           Subsidies )                                                      375,574                                                             420,287
         9 GDP at factor cost
           (18-19)                                                          44,93,743                 8.0                                      4,877,842         8.5
        20 Net factor income from
           abroad                                                            -28,889                                                            -43,083
        21 Gross national product
           at factor cost                                                   44,64,854                 7.9                                      4,834,759         8.3
           (9 + 20)
        23 Net national
           product/National
           Income at factor cost
           (Less Depreciation)                                              39,46,540                 7.5                                      4,259,782         7.9
        24 Population (in million)
                                                                              1170                                                               1186
        25 Per capita income (Rs.)
           (23/24)                                                           33731                    6.1                                       35917            6.5




                                                   Aug-11                    Aug-10                                         Aug-11            FY2011-12 * FY2010-11*

           Production Index                          Index 2004-05 =100                                                                  Change (YoY, %)
           (Index of Industrial
           Production)                              166.5                    157.7                                           4.1                  5.6            8.7
1.         Mining                                   117.6                    121.7                                           -3.4                 0.2            7.7
2.         Manufacturing                            172.6                    165.2                                           4.5                  6.0            9.2
3.         Electricity                              149.4                    136.4                                           9.5                  9.5            4.1
           *Apr-Aug. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05.



     200
                                                  IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100)
     190
     180                                                                                                                                            Mining &
     170                                                                                   165.4                                      166.5         Quarrying (141.75)

     160                                 152.9
                                                                                                                                                    Manufacturing
     150
                                                                                                                                                    (755.27)
                                                                                                                    176.7
                                                                    175.6




     140
                         161.3




     130                                                                                                                                            Electricity (103.16)
                                                                                                                              149.0
                                                                               138.0




     120
                                                            131.0
                                 130.8




                                                                                                            125.2
                124.5




     110
     100
                                                                                                                                                    General Index
                                                                                                                                                    (1000.0)
                         2009-10                                    2010-11                                         2011-12




     E-UpDates November 2011                                                           5                                    Surge Research Support
Inflation

Wholesale Price Index
                                     All               Primary                          Non-food           Crude
(Base: 2004-05=100)                                                   Food Articles                                    Manufactured
                                  Commodities          Articles                          Articles        Petroleum
(Inflation %)                                                                                                           Products
July - 2011                        154.0 (9.20)         197.9                192.8        175.8             282.5             137.7
August - 2011                      154.9 (9.78)         199.6                193.7        181.1             280.8             138.3
September - 2011                   155.8 (9.72)         202.6                196.5        184.4             274.6             138.6

                                     All India
                                  General Index Rural Areas Urban Areas                 Industrial        Rural            Agricultural
                                   (All Groups (All Groups) (All Groups)                 Workers        Labourers           Labourers
                                    combined)      Base         Base                      Base          Base 1986-         Base 1986-
Consumer Price Index                  Base       2010=100    2010=100                   2001=100         87=100              87=100
(Inflation %)                       2010=100
July - 2011                            110.5 (F)       111.7 (F)            108.9 (F)   193 (8.43)        604 (9.03)        604 (9.03)
August - 2011                          111.7 (P)       113.1 (P)            109.8 (P)   194 (8.99)        610 (9.71)        610 (9.53)
September - 2011                       113.1 (P)       114.6 (P)            111.1 (P)   197(10.06)        614 (9.25)        615 (9.43)
F: Final; P: Provisional


                         WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series                                        Weekly Inflation (WPI)
 160
                    2009-10             2010-11                 2011-12                    Date          Food price    Primary articles
                                                                                        6-Aug-11            9.03           11.64
 150
                                                                                        13-Aug-11            9.8           12.40
                                                                                        20-Aug-11          10.05           12.93
 140
                                                                                        27-Aug-11           9.66           13.34
                                                                                         3-Sep-11           9.47           13.04
 130
                                                                                        10-Sep-11           8.84           12.17
                                                                                        17-Sep-11           9.13           11.43
 120                                                                                                        9.41           10.84
                                                                                        24-Sep-11
                                                                                         1-Oct-11           9.32           10.06
 110                                                                                                       10.60           11.18
                                                                                         8-Oct-11
                                                                                        15-Oct-11          11.43           11.75
 100                                                                                    22-Oct-11          12.21           12.08
        Apr May     Jun    Jul   Aug    Sep   Oct   Nov Dec     Jan   Feb     Mar




       E-UpDates November 2011                                        6                           Surge Research Support
COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores)
                                                              March 31       September#                 October*
                                                                   2011            2011                     2011
      M3                                                      6,499,548       6,858,829                6,958,664
      % change during the month                                    2.21            0.35                     1.46
      % change since March 31                                     16.49            5.53                     7.06
(A)   Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)
 1    Currency with the public                                  914,197          941,258                 952,190
      % change during the month                                    0.95            (0.17)                   1.16
      % change since March 31                                     19.03             2.96                    4.16
 2    Demand deposits with banks                                717,660          637,922                 646,007
      % change during the month                                    6.51             0.48                    1.27
      % change since March 31                                      0.49           (11.11)                  (9.98)
 3    Time deposits with banks                                4,863,979        5,277,306               5,359,307
      % change during the month                                    1.84             0.45                    1.55
      % change since March 31                                     18.82             8.50                   10.18
 4    Other deposits with RBI                                     3,713            2,342                   1,160
      % change during the month                                    2.63           (35.14)                 (50.47)
      % change since March 31                                     (1.90)          (36.92)                 (68.76)
(B)   Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)
 5    Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii)                          1,982,771        2,137,832               2,181,908
      % change during the month                                    6.67            (0.53)                   2.06
      % change since March 31                                     18.85             7.82                   10.04
 i    RBI's credit                                              396,555          356,660                 394,737
      % change during the month                                   32.09            (3.12)                  10.68
      % change since March 31                                     80.07           (10.06)                  (0.46)
 ii   Other banks' credit                                     1,586,216        1,781,172               1,787,171
      % change during the month                                    1.77             0.00                    0.34
      % change since March 31                                      9.54            12.29                   12.67
 6    Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii)                 4,235,406        4,389,661               4,447,127
      % change during the month                                    3.81             1.24                    1.31
      % change since March 31                                     21.59             3.64                    5.00
 i    RBI's credit                                                2,164            1,783                   1,878
      % change during the month                                   37.83            (3.05)                   5.33
      % change since March 31                                     62.95           (17.61)                 (13.22)
 ii   Other banks' credit                                     4,233,242        4,387,878               4,445,249
      % change during the month                                    3.80             1.24                    1.31
      % change since March 31                                     21.58             3.65                    5.01
 7    Net foreign exchange assets of the banking
                                                              1,393,327        1,549,140               1,598,117
      sector
      % change during the month                                   (0.24)            3.57                    3.16
      % change since March 31                                      9.28            11.18                   14.70
 8    Government's currency liabilities to the
                                                                12,724           12,959                  13,312
      public
      % change during the month                                    4.71              -                      2.72
      % change since March 31                                     16.53             1.85                    4.62
 9    NNML of the banking sector (i+ii)
                                                              1,124,680        1,230,764               1,281,800
    % change during the month                                   13.79                 6.21                 4.15
    % change since March 31                                     31.10                 9.43                13.97
  i RBI's NNML                                               368,274              526,650               578,538
    % change during the month                                    (0.87)             18.00                  9.85
    % change since March 31                                     18.68               43.00                 57.09
 ii Other bank's NNML(Residual)                              756,406              704,114               703,262
    % change during the month                                   22.62                (1.18)               (0.12)
    % change since March 31                                     38.13                (6.91)               (7.03)
    Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) # data are of September 23, 2011;
    (iii) * data are of October 21, 2011.




E-UpDates November 2011                                   7                            Surge Research Support
COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore)
                                                                March    September    October
                                                                   2011        2011       2011
     Reserve Money :                                        1,376,881     1,402,145  1,385,212
     % change during the month                                      7.64       2.39      (1.21)
     % change since March 31                                      19.18        1.83       0.61
(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)
  1 Currency in circulation                                    949,659      976,318  1,012,140
     % change during the month                                      0.93      (0.73)      3.67
     % change since March 31                                      18.83        2.81       6.58
  2 Banker's deposits with RBI                                 423,509      423,286    371,661
     % change during the month                                    26.58       10.75     (12.20)
     % change since March 31                                      20.21       (0.05)    (12.24)
  3 "Other" deposits with RBI                                    3,713        2,541      1,411
     % change during the month                                      2.63     (29.63)    (44.47)
     % change since March 31                                      -1.90      (31.56)    (62.00)
 (B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)
  4 Net RBI credit to Government                               396,555      406,753    391,984
     % change during the month                                    32.09       10.49      (3.63)
     % change since March 31                                      80.07        2.57      (1.15)
     RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector
                                                                 7,324        6,120      5,657
  5
     % change during the month                                    46.60       70.90      (7.57)
     % change since March 31                                     193.31      (16.44)    (22.76)
 5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD)                       5,159        3,990      3,779
     % change during the month                                    50.58      128.92      (5.29)
     % change since March 31                                     341.32      (22.66)    (26.75)
 5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector                             2,165        2,130      1,878
     % change during the month                                    37.90       15.89     (11.83)
     % change since March 31                                      63.03       (1.62)    (13.26)
  6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI                      1,328,553     1,491,104  1,530,763
     % change during the month                                    -0.35        4.20       2.66
     % change since March 31                                        7.84      12.24      15.22
  7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public                   12,724       13,312     13,312
     % change during the month                                      4.71       2.72        -
     % change since March 31                                      16.53        4.62       4.62
  8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI                        368,274      515,142    556,503
     % change during the month                                    -0.87       15.42       8.03
     % change since March 31                                      18.68       39.88      51.11
     Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.




E-UpDates November 2011                           8                        Surge Research Support
Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)
                                    Average of Buying & Selling
                                      Dollar                                   Euro
     Date       Day       Spot   1 Month   3 Month   6 Month   Spot    1 Month     3 Month   6 Month
    3-Oct-11   Mon    49.18      49.47     49.83     50.09     65.71   66.07       66.54     66.89
    4-Oct-11   Tue    49.36      49.61     49.95     50.14     65.09   65.40       65.85     66.10
    7-Oct-11   Fri    49.15      49.41     49.73     49.98     66.02   66.35       66.76     67.09
   10-Oct-11   Mon    48.94      49.20     49.56     49.88     66.53   66.87       67.33     67.77
   11-Oct-11   Tue    49.34      49.57     49.92     50.20     67.11   67.41       67.86     68.23
   12-Oct-11   Wed    48.96      49.20     49.57     49.88     67.44   67.74       68.23     68.65
   13-Oct-11   Thu    49.14      49.39     49.76     50.08     67.47   67.80       68.27     68.70
   14-Oct-11   Fri    49.04      49.30     49.69     50.04     67.63   67.97       68.47     68.95
   18-Oct-11   Tue    49.34      49.62     49.99     50.34     67.56   67.91       68.41     68.87
   19-Oct-11   Wed    49.14      49.41     49.83     50.25     68.03   68.39       68.94     69.51
   20-Oct-11   Thu    49.71      50.00     50.38     50.78     68.56   68.95       69.45     69.98
   21-Oct-11   Fri    50.12      50.42     50.80     51.16     68.97   69.37       69.87     70.36
   24-Oct-11   Mon    49.89      50.19     50.60     51.00     68.99   69.38       69.93     70.47
   28-Oct-11   Fri    48.85      49.14     49.55     49.98     69.18   69.57       70.12     70.71
   31-Oct-11   Mon    48.71      48.96     49.40     49.86     68.20   68.55       69.13     69.76




                                     Pound                                       Yen
     Date       Day       Spot   1 Month   3 Month   6 Month   Spot    1 Month     3 Month   6 Month
    3-Oct-11   Mon    76.33      76.75     77.28     77.62     63.98   64.38       64.89     65.32
    4-Oct-11   Tue    75.86      76.23     76.73     76.97     64.40   64.75       65.25     65.60
    7-Oct-11   Fri    76.25      76.62     77.08     77.43     64.10   64.46       64.93     65.35
   10-Oct-11   Mon    76.60      76.98     77.52     77.97     63.82   64.18       64.71     65.22
   11-Oct-11   Tue    77.20      77.55     78.06     78.45     64.37   64.69       65.20     65.66
   12-Oct-11   Wed    77.17      77.52     78.08     78.52     63.83   64.17       64.72     65.21
   13-Oct-11   Thu    77.17      77.54     78.08     78.53     63.85   64.19       64.71     65.23
   14-Oct-11   Fri    77.33      77.72     78.28     78.81     63.67   64.04       64.58     65.16
   18-Oct-11   Tue    77.64      78.04     78.60     79.09     64.38   64.77       65.31     65.87
   19-Oct-11   Wed    77.64      78.06     78.67     79.28     64.00   64.38       64.97     65.62
   20-Oct-11   Thu    78.43      78.87     79.42     79.99     64.72   65.12       65.66     66.28
   21-Oct-11   Fri    79.48      79.94     80.51     81.03     65.31   65.72       66.27     66.85
   24-Oct-11   Mon    79.42      79.88     80.49     81.06     65.55   65.97       66.56     67.19
   28-Oct-11   Fri    78.65      79.11     79.72     80.34     64.33   64.72       65.31     65.97
   31-Oct-11   Mon    78.00      78.39     79.04     79.71     62.49   62.84       63.45     64.15




E-UpDates November 2011                              9                     Surge Research Support
Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)
                                     Annualised Premia
                                     Dollar                        Euro
       Date       Day      1 Month   3 Month   6 Month   1 Month   3 Month   6 Month
      3-Oct-11   Mon        7.18      5.35      3.71      6.87      5.18      3.62
      4-Oct-11   Tue        6.25      4.91      3.21      5.96      4.79      3.14
      7-Oct-11   Fri        6.41      4.76      3.39      6.17      4.56      3.27
     10-Oct-11   Mon        6.43      5.12      3.88      6.21      4.90      3.75
     11-Oct-11   Tue        5.74      4.79      3.52      5.40      4.55      3.37
     12-Oct-11   Wed        6.04      5.08      3.79      5.47      4.80      3.62
     13-Oct-11   Thu        6.28      5.14      3.86      5.94      4.83      3.66
     14-Oct-11   Fri        6.55      5.45      4.14      6.11      5.03      3.94
     18-Oct-11   Tue        6.90      5.33      4.07      6.49      5.16      3.92
     19-Oct-11   Wed        6.93      5.74      4.57      6.54      5.46      4.38
     20-Oct-11   Thu        7.36      5.50      4.35      7.04      5.29      4.17
     21-Oct-11   Fri        7.42      5.54      4.21      7.09      5.29      4.06
     24-Oct-11   Mon        7.46      5.82      4.50      7.09      5.56      4.35
     28-Oct-11   Fri        7.36      5.86      4.68      6.98      5.58      4.47
     31-Oct-11   Mon        6.47      5.79      4.78      6.34      5.57      4.63




                                     Pound                          Yen
       Date       Day      1 Month   3 Month   6 Month   1 Month   3 Month   6 Month
      3-Oct-11   Mon        6.89      5.07      3.42      7.77      5.84      4.23
      4-Oct-11   Tue        6.01      4.67      2.95      6.72      5.42      3.76
      7-Oct-11   Fri        5.98      4.45      3.12      7.05      5.28      3.95
     10-Oct-11   Mon        6.12      4.86      3.61      7.08      5.70      4.44
     11-Oct-11   Tue        5.58      4.53      3.28      6.23      5.26      4.06
     12-Oct-11   Wed        5.58      4.80      3.53      6.68      5.70      4.39
     13-Oct-11   Thu        5.91      4.80      3.56      6.58      5.50      4.35
     14-Oct-11   Fri        6.22      5.01      3.85      7.30      5.87      4.74
     18-Oct-11   Tue        6.44      5.04      3.77      7.42      5.90      4.67
     19-Oct-11   Wed        6.61      5.41      4.26      7.36      6.17      5.13
     20-Oct-11   Thu        6.94      5.17      4.02      7.77      5.97      4.90
     21-Oct-11   Fri        7.17      5.26      3.93      7.90      6.01      4.77
     24-Oct-11   Mon        7.10      5.50      4.17      7.97      6.31      5.07
     28-Oct-11   Fri        7.17      5.55      4.34      7.62      6.23      5.18
     31-Oct-11   Mon        6.09      5.41      4.43      7.03      6.29      5.40




E-UpDates November 2011                        10                    Surge Research Support
Money Market Rates & Liquidity

                                                             Over
                        Net Injection(+)/       Repo Rates night
                RBI Absorption(-) of Liquidity (Repo/Reverse Rates                                                                  Call
                LAF       (Rs. Crore)              Repo)     (%)                                                                   Money*                         CBLO*                     Mibor                    USD Libor
     1-Oct-11                                                    0.0                8.25/7.25%                                          8.04                       5.98
     3-Oct-11                                                14660.0                                                                    8.20                       7.85                      8.23                       0.144
     4-Oct-11                                               -18905.0                                                                    8.09                       7.49                      8.08                       0.143
     5-Oct-11                                               -22625.0                                                                    7.79                       7.24                      7.54                       0.143
     7-Oct-11                                                 8280.0                                                                    7.61                       7.87                      8.07                       0.139
     8-Oct-11                                                    0.0                                                                    8.29                       8.30
    10-Oct-11                                                71815.0                                                                    8.28                       8.19                      8.30                       0.139
    11-Oct-11                                                67820.0                                                                    8.28                       8.21                      8.30                       0.142
    12-Oct-11                                                57795.0                                                                    8.27                       8.22                      8.30                       0.141
    13-Oct-11                                                55725.0                                                                    8.27                       8.22                      8.30                       0.141
    14-Oct-11                                                54270.0                                                                    8.16                       8.04                      8.30                       0.139
    15-Oct-11                                                    0.0                                                                    7.78                       8.14
    17-Oct-11                                                53635.0                                                                    8.27                       8.13                      8.30                       0.143
    18-Oct-11                                                41765.0                                                                    8.25                       8.21                      8.28                       0.141
    19-Oct-11                                                56360.0                                                                    8.23                       8.23                      8.29                       0.141
    20-Oct-11                                                75885.0                                                                    8.23                       8.24                      8.30                       0.142
    21-Oct-11                                                79770.0                                                                    8.31                       8.38                      8.30                       0.142
    22-Oct-11                                                    0.0                                                                    8.31                       8.26
    24-Oct-11                                                98285.0                                                                    8.32                       8.23                      8.33                       0.142
    25-Oct-11                                               109055.0                 8.5/7.5%                                           8.39                       8.19                      8.45                       0.142
    28-Oct-11                                                58445.0                                                                    8.34                       8.34                      8.58                       0.142
    29-Oct-11                                                    0.0                                                                    8.27                       8.23
    31-Oct-11                                                52385.0                 8.5/7.5%                                           8.54                       8.44                      8.58                       0.142




*Weighted.Avg.Rates




                                            Call Money                                                        Mibor                                                USD Libor
       8.60                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.145

       8.40                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.143
       8.20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.141
       8.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.139
       7.80

       7.60                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.137

       7.40                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.135
                1-Oct-11

                           3-Oct-11

                                      5-Oct-11

                                                 7-Oct-11

                                                            9-Oct-11

                                                                        11-Oct-11

                                                                                      13-Oct-11

                                                                                                  15-Oct-11

                                                                                                                17-Oct-11

                                                                                                                            19-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                          21-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                      23-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                    25-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                27-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                             29-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                         31-Oct-11




    E-UpDates November 2011                                                                             11                                                         Surge Research Support
Debt Market Yields

Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds - October 2011
                                                                                            >10 Year & >15 Year &
    Date         3 months 6 months 1 year    2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year     <=15 Year <= 20 Year >20 Year
      3-Oct-11     8.39                                                              8.51       8.54          8.70        8.72
      4-Oct-11     8.33     8.38     8.39              8.33                          8.53       8.57          8.72        8.71
      5-Oct-11     8.36     8.39     8.50                                            8.55       8.59          8.74        8.71
      7-Oct-11     8.38              8.45              8.35            8.63                     8.68          8.80        8.92
     10-Oct-11                       8.49                                            8.70       8.74          8.85        8.94
     11-Oct-11     8.42              8.44                                            8.74       8.93          8.92        8.95
     12-Oct-11     8.35              8.52     8.82                                   8.73       8.67          8.89        8.93
     13-Oct-11     8.47     8.55                       8.49                                     8.74          8.89        8.87
     14-Oct-11     8.44     8.58     8.54                                            8.78       8.77          8.94        8.95
     17-Oct-11              8.45     8.60              8.64                          8.82       8.84          8.95        8.95
     18-Oct-11                                                         8.73          8.75       8.78          8.93        8.95
     19-Oct-11              8.58     8.55                              8.75          8.77       8.79          8.93        8.95
     20-Oct-11     8.62     8.42     8.67                              8.74          8.78       8.81          8.91        8.95
     21-Oct-11     8.61     8.39     8.62                              8.73          8.82       8.84          8.90        8.96
     24-Oct-11     8.60     8.65                                       8.68          8.82       8.87          8.92        8.97
     25-Oct-11     8.64     8.65                                       8.72          8.73       8.79          8.88        8.91
     28-Oct-11     8.58     8.67                                       8.92          8.85       8.94          8.97        8.94
     31-Oct-11     8.59     8.62     8.65                              8.89          8.87       8.93          8.97        8.97




Month Average      8.48     8.53     8.53     8.82     8.45            8.75          8.73      8.77           8.88    8.90

Bond Yield Spreads over Gilts - October 2011
 Maturity/
   Type       6 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year                9 Year      10 Year    15 Year
   AAA
    PSU            0.89     1.08     0.94     0.93     0.89     0.84   0.79   0.75   0.75       0.76          0.76    0.63
    Bank           0.84     1.05     0.95     0.93     0.90     0.86   0.83   0.79   0.80       0.81          0.82    0.68
   NBFC            1.08     1.30     1.32     1.27     1.22     1.09   1.10   1.05   1.07       1.08          1.09    0.99
  Corporate        1.14     1.45     1.15     1.11     1.08     1.05   1.00   0.96   0.96       0.97          0.97    0.82
    AA+
    PSU            1.01     1.22     1.08     1.08     1.04     0.99   0.94   0.90   0.90       0.91          0.91    0.78
    Bank           0.96     1.16     1.06     1.09     1.05     1.01   0.96   0.92   0.93       0.95          0.95    0.83
   NBFC            1.23     1.49     1.54     1.64     1.61     1.58   1.55   1.51   1.48       1.46          1.42    1.39
  Corporate        1.29     1.60     1.35     1.33     1.33     1.32   1.29   1.26   1.25       1.25          1.25    1.10
    AA
    PSU            1.15     1.36     1.25     1.25     1.21     1.18   1.15   1.12   1.11       1.10          1.08    0.95
    Bank           1.09     1.31     1.21     1.25     1.22     1.20   1.17   1.14   1.13       1.12          1.11    0.97
   NBFC            1.47     1.69     1.69     1.82     1.86     1.89   1.85   1.81   1.78       1.75          1.71    1.57
  Corporate        1.49     1.85     1.60     1.58     1.58     1.57   1.54   1.51   1.50       1.50          1.50    1.35




      E-UpDates November 2011                                  12                    Surge Research Support
Weighted Average YTMs
                                                                 Weighted Average YTMs




                                                                                                                                                                                                          8.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                8.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      8.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9.0




                                                           0.0
                                                                 2.0
                                                                       4.0
                                                                             6.0
                                                                                   8.0
                                                                                         10.0
                                                                                                12.0
                                                                                                       14.0
                                            October 2012                                                                                                                                     April 2012

                                          September 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                              May 2012
                                             March 2014

                                               June 2014




E-UpDates November 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                             April 2016
                                               July 2015

                                            October 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                           January 2017
                                          September 2016

                                          September 2016                                                                                                                                      July 2017

                                            August 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                             April 2018




13
                                            August 2018

                                            August 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                             April 2021
                                            August 2020
                                                                                                                                                                         Maturity Year
                                               July 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Debt Market Yields




                          Maturity Year
                                                                                                                                                                                           August 2022
                                            August 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Yields of Gsecs Traded in October 2011




                                            August 2022
                                                                                                                                                                                         September 2022
                                            August 2023

                                            August 2024                                                                                                                                    August 2027

                                            August 2025

                                             March 2026                                                                                                                                  September 2027




Surge Research Support
                                                                                                              Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - October 2011




                                          September 2026
                                                                                                                                                                                          February 2032
                                            August 2027

                                            August 2028
                                                                                                                                                                                              July 2040
                                            August 2029
Equity Market Turnover
BSE Equity Market                                                                  BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
                                                         Average
                                                           Daily     Market
               No of co.s    No. of scrips   Turnover    Turnover Capitalisation                          Month-
Month/Year      listed*        traded         (Rs.cr)     (Rs.cr)   (Rs.cr)*         High       Low       Closing      P/E              P/B     Div Yield
   Jul-11            5096        3039        59076.0      2813.1      6614745.5     19131.7    18131.86   18197.2      19.60            3.44      1.43
   Aug-11            5086        2991        52760.3      2512.4      6058776.3     18440.07   15765.53   16676.75     18.36            3.34      1.51

   Sep-11            5092        2922        53625.9      2553.6      5952377.6     17211.8    15801.01   16453.76     18.35            3.36      1.52

NSE Capital Market Segment                                                         S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
                                                         Average
                                                           Daily     Market
               No of co.s    No. of scrips   Turnover    Turnover Capitalisation                          Month-
 Month/Year     listed*        traded         (Rs.cr)     (Rs.cr)   (Rs.cr)*         High       Low       Closing      P/E              P/B     Div Yield

   Jul-11            1606        1600        230003.0     10953.0     6462338.0     5740.40    5453.95    5482.00      20.49            3.47      1.27

   Aug-11            1615        1611        235253.0     11203.0     5921684.0     5551.90    4720.00    5001.00      18.29            3.08      1.42
   Sep-11            1622        1698        235270.0     11203.0     5820334.0     5169.25    4758.85    4943.25      18.11            2.96      1.51
*End of the Month.


                                                                 Derivatives Turnover
BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades
                   Index Futures                Stock Futures            Index Options          Stock Options                  Total        Average
                                                                                   Notional            Notional                              Daily
                 No. of      Turnover (Rs.    No. of     Turnover      No. of     Turnover No. of Turnover            No. of      Turnover Turnover
Month / Year    contracts        cr.)        contracts   (Rs. cr.)    contracts    (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.)     contracts    (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.)
    Jul-11           706         19.76         532         15.58          30          0.85       ….         …          1268            36.18      1.72

   Aug-11            428         10.81         1736        47.02          ….           …         ….         …          2164            57.82      2.75
   Sep-11            19303      474.08         7759       241.04          4627       122.25      93         2.21      31782            839.58     39.98

NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment
                   Index Futures                Stock Futures             Index Options          Stock Options                 Total        Average
                                                                                   Notional            Notional                              Daily
                 No. of      Turnover (Rs.    No. of     Turnover      No. of      Turnover No. of Turnover           No. of      Turnover Turnover
Month / Year    contracts        cr.)        contracts   (Rs. cr.)    contracts    (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.)     contracts    (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.)

   Jul-11       10048859      265640.93      12260020    349890.69    66268437     1867725.5   2800430    81707.72   91377746 2564964.83 122141.18

   Aug-11       14585694       347176.6      13366537    333790.92    86141851     2209523.7   2791679    73258.02   116885761 2963749.16 141130.91

   Sep-11       14796435      346826.29      13329926    326289.5     83122036      2085730    3057248     76418     114305645 2835263.82 135012.56




        E-UpDates November 2011                                      14                            Surge Research Support
Index Movements

BSE: BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
                              Open                        High                           Low                        Close                       Price/Earnings                             Price/Bookvalue                                  Dividend Yield

    3-Oct-11                  16255.97                   16255.97                        16056.33                 16151.45                               17.77                                          3.25                                      1.57
    4-Oct-11                  16081.77                   16202.38                        15745.43                 15864.86                               17.45                                          3.19                                      1.60
    5-Oct-11                  15967.72                   16044.91                        15760.53                 15792.41                               17.39                                          3.18                                      1.60
    7-Oct-11                  16222.49                   16347.48                        16148.97                 16232.54                               17.80                                          3.26                                      1.56
   10-Oct-11                  16270.07                   16595.93                        16230.77                 16557.23                               18.18                                          3.33                                      1.53
   11-Oct-11                  16668.15                   16774.12                        16510.71                 16536.47                               18.17                                          3.33                                      1.53
   12-Oct-11                  16660.43                   16987.06                        16608.57                 16958.39                               18.52                                          3.39                                      1.50
   13-Oct-11                  17048.00                   17084.07                        16854.03                 16883.92                               18.39                                          3.37                                      1.51
   14-Oct-11                  16836.83                   17112.45                        16828.45                 17082.69                               18.59                                          3.41                                      1.50
   17-Oct-11                  17176.05                   17188.55                        16928.38                 17025.09                               18.40                                          3.39                                      1.50
   18-Oct-11                  16817.38                   16824.76                        16669.04                 16748.29                               17.91                                          3.33                                      1.53
   19-Oct-11                  16883.36                   17106.99                        16874.34                 17085.34                               18.28                                          3.40                                      1.50
   20-Oct-11                  16911.85                   16962.06                        16744.99                 16936.89                               18.11                                          3.38                                      1.51
   21-Oct-11                  16975.79                   17032.32                        16752.21                 16785.64                               17.97                                          3.35                                      1.52
   24-Oct-11                  17011.06                   17104.88                        16898.60                 16939.28                               18.13                                          3.39                                      1.50
   25-Oct-11                  17012.79                   17322.13                        16900.26                 17254.86                               18.43                                          3.44                                      1.48
   26-Oct-11                  17336.34                   17350.49                        17273.52                 17288.83                               18.48                                          3.45                                      1.48
   28-Oct-11                  17671.86                   17908.13                        17671.86                 17804.80                               18.96                                          3.55                                      1.44
   31-Oct-11                  17806.21                   17813.11                        17668.27                 17705.01                               18.82                                          3.52                                      1.45




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5400
17650                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5300
17400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5200
17150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5150
16900                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5050
16650                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5000
16400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4950
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4900
16150                                                                                          BSE                                                                              NSE                                                        4850
15900                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4750
15650                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4700
                                                     10-Oct-11

                                                                 11-Oct-11

                                                                             12-Oct-11

                                                                                          13-Oct-11

                                                                                                      14-Oct-11

                                                                                                                  17-Oct-11

                                                                                                                               18-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                           19-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                       20-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                   21-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                               24-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                           25-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                       26-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   28-Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               31-Oct-11
        3-Oct-11

                   4-Oct-11

                               5-Oct-11

                                          7-Oct-11




  E-UpDates November 2011                                                                                                     15                                                           Surge Research Support
NSE: S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
               Open         High        Low          Close      Price/Earnings      Price/Bookvalue      Dividend Yield
    3-Oct-11     4874.40     4879.15     4823.90      4849.50        17.51                2.86                1.56
    4-Oct-11     4823.50     4869.75     4728.30      4772.15        17.23                2.82                1.59
    5-Oct-11     4791.30     4827.80     4741.00      4751.30        17.16                2.81                1.60
    7-Oct-11     4883.65     4922.60     4861.20      4888.05        17.65                2.89                1.55
   10-Oct-11     4886.85     4991.15     4882.05      4979.60        18.03                2.99                1.51
   11-Oct-11     5019.90     5045.10     4964.00      4974.35        18.01                2.98                1.52
   12-Oct-11     5011.20     5109.80     4997.65      5099.40        18.43                3.06                1.48
   13-Oct-11     5130.80     5136.95     5067.65      5077.85        18.35                3.04                1.49
   14-Oct-11     5057.35     5141.40     5056.60      5132.30        18.55                3.08                1.47
   17-Oct-11     5156.20     5160.20     5084.50      5118.25        18.50                3.07                1.47
   18-Oct-11     5049.45     5057.50     5011.05      5037.50        18.00                3.02                1.50
   19-Oct-11     5080.45     5148.05     5075.30      5139.15        18.36                3.08                1.47
   20-Oct-11     5086.55     5099.00     5033.95      5091.90        18.14                3.05                1.48
   21-Oct-11     5106.60     5120.75     5037.95      5049.95        17.99                3.03                1.49
   24-Oct-11     5114.70     5145.65     5084.75      5098.35        18.10                3.06                1.48
   25-Oct-11     5137.90     5211.00     5085.55      5191.60        18.39                3.11                1.45
   26-Oct-11     5214.95     5219.25     5196.15      5201.80        18.43                3.12                1.45
   28-Oct-11     5341.90     5399.70     5322.80      5360.70        19.03                3.21                1.41
   31-Oct-11     5358.90     5360.25     5314.60      5326.60        18.90                3.19                1.42




FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures
(Expiry 24-Nov-11)

               Open        High        Low         Close     Settlement Price    No. of contracts     Change in OI
   3-Oct-11     4869.9      4890.0      4827.7      4871.4             4871.4               8823.0           91700.0
   4-Oct-11     4845.0      4897.7      4740.0      4788.5             4788.5              12639.0          1,27,000
   5-Oct-11     4802.8      4856.0      4761.0      4782.1             4782.1              11128.0           95450.0
   7-Oct-11     4890.3      4951.0      4886.0      4909.9             4909.9              12600.0           -6350.0
  10-Oct-11     4914.0      5018.0      4902.5      5007.5             5007.5              12002.0          1,16,100
  11-Oct-11     5050.6      5068.0      4985.1      4997.8             4997.8              12909.0          1,75,550
  12-Oct-11     5015.6      5135.0      5015.6      5127.5             5127.5              16697.0          2,84,850
  13-Oct-11     5150.0      5154.0      5082.1      5089.4             5089.4              16266.0          2,65,350
  14-Oct-11     5081.0      5169.0      5077.5      5160.6             5160.6              17295.0          3,02,950
  17-Oct-11     5184.0      5184.0      5100.0      5132.5             5132.5              21213.0          1,72,650
  18-Oct-11     5075.0      5107.0      5030.1      5060.6             5060.6              48837.0         12,89,600
  19-Oct-11     5084.9      5172.9      5084.9      5165.7             5165.7              82834.0         24,39,900
  20-Oct-11     5110.2      5126.9      5051.0      5119.7             5119.7             1,03,748         18,81,200
  21-Oct-11     5119.0      5149.8      5058.5      5074.1             5074.1             1,75,607         46,55,400
  24-Oct-11     5135.6      5176.4      5115.2      5128.7             5128.7             2,01,013         43,56,300
  25-Oct-11     5151.5      5249.8      5112.1      5229.2             5229.2             4,15,096         88,91,850
  26-Oct-11     5241.2      5257.2      5227.0      5232.1             5232.1              82639.0          6,09,700
  28-Oct-11     5376.6      5402.8      5341.3      5385.5             5385.5             3,61,703         10,00,950
  31-Oct-11     5369.7      5377.9      5333.7      5347.1             5347.1             2,67,544          2,59,700




 E-UpDates November 2011                               16                           Surge Research Support
Capital Market Flows
            Mutual Funds Investment Trends
                               Gross Purchases   Gross Sales    Net Investment
                 Equity            (Rs Crores)   (Rs Crores)       (Rs Crores)
            3-Oct-11                     387.1          620.1           -233.0
            4-Oct-11                     558.8          654.0            -95.2
            5-Oct-11                     528.1          424.4            103.7
            7-Oct-11                     739.3          555.2            184.1
            10-Oct-11                    694.2          500.4            193.8
            11-Oct-11                    777.7          433.2            344.5
            12-Oct-11                    680.2          500.7            179.5
            13-Oct-11                    429.9          511.9            -82.0
            14-Oct-11                    465.9          483.6            -17.8
            17-Oct-11                    292.8          522.4           -229.6
            18-Oct-11                    451.0          526.1            -75.1
            19-Oct-11                    423.4          432.9             -9.4
            20-Oct-11                    302.6          489.5           -186.9
            21-Oct-11                    340.2          394.6            -54.4
            24-Oct-11                    323.0          412.9            -89.9
            25-Oct-11                    772.5          794.5            -22.0
            26-Oct-11                     39.2            4.2             35.0
            28-Oct-11                    688.3          845.3           -157.0
            31-Oct-11                    413.6          563.6           -150.0




             Total for Month            9307.8         9669.5           -361.7


                               Gross Purchases   Gross Sales    Net Investment
                  Debt             (Rs Crores)   (Rs Crores)       (Rs Crores)
            3-Oct-11                    8440.6         3803.1          4637.5
            4-Oct-11                    5203.1         3350.7          1852.3
            5-Oct-11                    5556.4         4141.4          1415.0
            7-Oct-11                    4634.4         1981.7          2652.7
            10-Oct-11                   2771.1          927.1          1844.0
            11-Oct-11                   2063.1         2157.8           -94.8
            12-Oct-11                   2767.2         1672.2          1095.0
            13-Oct-11                   2479.8         1969.5           510.3
            14-Oct-11                   1607.9         1599.6             8.3
            17-Oct-11                   2093.5         1539.6           553.9
            18-Oct-11                   2345.1         2330.5            14.7
            19-Oct-11                   2274.7         3054.0          -779.3
            20-Oct-11                   2360.6         1467.6           893.0
            21-Oct-11                   2464.8         2158.0           306.8
            24-Oct-11                   1879.3         2813.3          -934.0
            25-Oct-11                   3792.6         2619.5          1173.1
            26-Oct-11                      0.0           53.5            -53.5
            28-Oct-11                   1714.1         1649.2             64.9
            31-Oct-11                   3563.4         3859.7           -296.3




             Total for Month          58011.7         43148.0         14863.6



E-UpDates November 2011                          17                         Surge Research Support
Mutual Funds Asset Position

           Mutual Funds Asset Position               Private Sector Public Sector Mutual     (of which)
             April-September 2011                    Mutual Funds          Funds                 UTI         Total

                    Mobilisation of Funds             2,865,442.8         607,350.4          287,785.8    3,472,793.2

            Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds          52,450.9           2,828.6            4,208.4       55,279.5

           Cumulative Position of Net Assets as        529,998.7          111,938.3           55,732.2     641,937.0
                on Sep, 30, 2011 (%)                    82.56%             17.44%              8.68%        100.00%
          in Rs. Crore


             ECB                                            Jul-11                    Aug-11
             Automatic Route                           3,677,174,928             2,683,013,998
             Approval Route                              492,247,312             1,025,219,776
             Total ECB (& FCCB)                        4,169,422,241             3,708,233,774
             Value in USD


        FII Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets

              Debt            Gross Purchases        Gross Sales     Net Investment     Net Investment
                                (Rs Crores)          (Rs Crores)      (Rs Crores)        US$ million
        3-Oct-11                            1466.1           723.9             742.2             151.7
        4-Oct-11                             562.1          1913.3            -1351.2            -273.4
        5-Oct-11
                                            1154.5          1504.5             -350.0             -71.1
        7-Oct-11                            1427.5          1565.4            -137.9              -28.0
        10-Oct-11                            888.0           638.2             249.9               50.9
        11-Oct-11                           1161.8           507.2             654.6              133.4
        12-Oct-11                           1646.5           379.0            1267.6              258.5
        13-Oct-11                           1184.3           963.5             220.7               44.8
        14-Oct-11                           1076.4           665.1             411.3               83.9
        17-Oct-11                            647.9           281.4             366.5               74.7
        18-Oct-11                            246.6           292.9             -46.3               -9.5
        19-Oct-11                            486.7          1153.1            -666.4             -135.6
        20-Oct-11                           1472.3          1212.7             259.6               52.8
        21-Oct-11                           1390.6           533.2             857.4             172.5
        24-Oct-11                           1137.4           602.9             534.5             106.8
        25-Oct-11                            719.4          1854.3            -1134.8            -227.5
        28-Oct-11                            476.8           657.2             -180.4             -36.3
        31-Oct-11                            359.5           655.4             -295.9             -60.6




        Total for Month                 17504.4            16103.2            1401.4             287.8
        Total for 2011                 218231.0           198873.4           19357.7            4290.3




E-UpDates November 2011                                     18                           Surge Research Support
Equity             Gross Purchases             Gross Sales             Net Investment          Net Investment
                                                          (Rs Crores)             (Rs Crores)                (Rs Crores)             US$ million
        3-Oct-11                                               6193.8                    6504.1                      -310.3                       -63.4
        4-Oct-11                                               1639.8                    2422.2                      -782.4                      -158.3
        5-Oct-11                                               2080.2                    3046.4                      -966.1                      -196.3
        7-Oct-11
                                                               2026.8                    2996.1                      -969.3                      -197.0
        10-Oct-11                                              3563.9                    3072.7                           491.3                  100.0
        11-Oct-11                                              2471.0                    2189.8                           281.2                   57.3
        12-Oct-11                                              2833.1                    2650.0                           183.1                   37.3
        13-Oct-11                                              2674.9                    2025.8                           649.2                  131.8
        14-Oct-11                                              2539.1                    1873.3                           665.8                  135.8
        17-Oct-11                                              1547.0                    1630.3                           -83.3                   -17.0
        18-Oct-11                                              1889.9                    1492.4                           397.5                   81.3
        19-Oct-11                                              1808.3                    2057.5                      -249.2                       -50.7
        20-Oct-11                                              1776.2                    1758.8                        17.3                         3.5
        21-Oct-11                                              1469.3                    1900.2                      -430.9                       -86.7
        24-Oct-11                                              1376.3                    1554.5                      -178.2                       -35.6
        25-Oct-11                                              1760.1                    1613.4                       146.8                        29.4
        28-Oct-11                                              3688.8                    3234.4                       454.5                        91.5
        31-Oct-11                                              5567.7                    3207.3                     2360.4                       483.5




        Total for Month                                      46906.2                    45229.2                     1677.4                       346.5
        Total for 2011                                      527367.3                   525981.6                     1385.7                       397.8
        No of Registered FII's :1750 as on 31.10.2011.
                                                                                                                                       2360.4
                                        800.0

                                        500.0
              Net Flows (Rs.Cr.)




                                        200.0

                                        -100.0

                                        -400.0

                                        -700.0                                   FII Equity                       MF Equity
                                       -1000.0
                                             3-Oct-




                                                                10-Oct-




                                                                                           17-Oct-




                                                                                                                24-Oct-




                                                                                                                                       31-Oct-
                                                      11




                                                                          11




                                                                                                     11




                                                                                                                          11




                                                                                                                                                 11




                                                              Aug-11                   Apr.- Aug. 2011-12                   Apr.- Aug. 2010-11
      Foreign Investment
      Direct Investment                                                        2,830                         20,973                                   11,390
      Portfolio Investment                                                 -1,797                             2,493                                   13,327
      Total                                                                    1,033                         23,466                                   24,717
      in USD Million




E-UpDates November 2011                                                                  19                                        Surge Research Support
Commodity Futures & Spot Markets

                         Value of Trade on Commodity Exchanges (in Rs.Crore)
                                         During                           MCX                  NCDEX              All Exchanges        YoY % Growth
                          1st - 15th Oct ’11                                567,972.64             63,564.37              657,000.22              32.01
                         16th - 30th Sep ’11                                908,638.47             81,178.13            1,021,739.02             122.69
                          1st - 15th Sep ’11                                859,577.39             67,063.65              953,370.10             118.26




Commodity Futures & Spot Prices
                                Sugar*                          Wheat**                  Refined Soya Oil**           Energy: Crude Oil*         Bullion: Silver*
                             (100 Kgs)                        (100 Kgs)                       (10 Kgs)                      (1 Bbl.)                    (1 Kg.)
      Date              Futures        Spot              Futures      Spot              Futures        Spot          Futures         Spot     Futures          Spot
1-Oct-11                2728.0                           1128.0      1164.9              587.4        633.1          3963.0        3875.0     51181.0         51100.0
3-Oct-11                 2746.0            2694.0         1131.4         1154.6          591.4          630.0         3869.0       3875.0     52044.0         52000.0
4-Oct-11                 2729.0            2692.0         1123.8         1150.4          581.5          629.7         3825.0       3836.0     50223.0         51338.0
5-Oct-11                 2720.0            2692.0         1116.6         1145.7          578.0          628.1         3943.0       3725.0     51226.0         49046.0
6-Oct-11                 2720.0                           1116.6                         578.0                        4065.0       3920.0     53237.0         52993.0
7-Oct-11                 2738.0            2690.0         1119.6         1150.0          581.4          627.6         4062.0       4063.0     51901.0         51958.0
8-Oct-11                 2746.0            2688.0         1124.4         1146.7          579.7          625.9         4095.0       4077.0     52297.0         53049.0
10-Oct-11                2747.0            2700.0         1124.4         1143.8          588.3          623.4         4211.0       4077.0     53028.0         52543.0
11-Oct-11                2758.0            2721.0         1123.4         1154.6          589.4          621.2         4264.0       4191.0     53269.0         53545.0
12-Oct-11                2779.0            2723.0         1130.4         1153.0          599.9          624.8         4230.0       4208.0     54162.0         52701.0
13-Oct-11                2785.0            2743.0         1128.4         1150.9          594.7          623.4         4204.0       4214.0     52914.0         52458.0
14-Oct-11                2760.0            2754.0         1122.0         1152.8          604.9          627.5         4281.0       4129.0     53292.0         53371.0
15-Oct-11                2770.0                           1117.2         1152.5          608.9          632.8         4299.0       4259.0     53405.0         52873.0
17-Oct-11                2804.0            2757.0         1109.4         1155.0          609.2          639.5         4279.0       4259.0     52769.0         51764.0
18-Oct-11                2779.0            2754.0         1106.4         1152.5          606.2          638.4         4363.0       4223.0     53157.0         52497.0
19-Oct-11                2774.0            2754.0         1093.6         1152.5          613.6          640.5         4357.0       4341.0     52228.0         51504.0
20-Oct-11                2775.0            2756.0         1088.8         1149.6          609.7          637.9         4291.0       4235.0     51701.0         51939.0
21-Oct-11                2787.0                           1091.2         1143.4          614.5          638.2         4371.0       4279.0     52784.0         52518.0
22-Oct-11                2777.0            2775.0         1094.6         1143.2          614.0          637.5         4381.0       4376.0     53034.0         52809.0
24-Oct-11                2766.0            2779.0         1091.8         1141.3          615.8          638.3         4546.0       4376.0     53077.0         53018.0
25-Oct-11                2807.0            2785.0         1113.4         1143.6          627.8          640.7         4647.0       4552.0     55064.0         53030.0
26-Oct-11                2785.0                           1112.4                         625.5                        4574.0       4627.0     55711.0
27-Oct-11                2788.0            2785.0         1109.2                         630.1                        4595.0       4479.0     57859.0         53030.0
28-Oct-11                2781.0            2786.0         1082.4         1157.5          621.9                        4535.0       4666.0     57395.0         53030.0
29-Oct-11                2770.0                           1092.8         1163.8          623.8          640.6         4541.0       4556.0     57373.0         53030.0
31-Oct-11                2782.0            2759.0         1092.6         1181.3          618.2          634.9         4516.0       4556.0     56427.0         56003.0
*Multi Commodity Exchange of India. ** National Commodity & Derivatives Exchng Ltd. Futures: Nov contract; Silver Dec contract.




             E-UpDates November 2011                                              20                                 Surge Research Support
Commodity Futures & Spot Indices
               Futures Index :           MCXCOMDEX                  MCXAGRI             MCXMETAL                   Spot Index :          MCXSCOMDEX                   MCXSAGRI    MCXSMETAL

       1-Oct                              3360.29                   2944.47                 4445.76                                         3367.16                    3149.98      4443.47
       3-Oct                              3356.76                   2944.36                 4499.31                                         3332.45                    3087.26      4449.78
       4-Oct                              3303.37                   2929.12                 4396.04                                         3310.44                    3107.53      4453.39
       5-Oct                              3347.53                   2900.63                 4452.38                                         3282.8                     3076.33      4336.15
       6-Oct                              3409.81                   2898.37                 4541.06                                          3282.8                    3076.33      4336.15
       7-Oct                              3390.29                   2901.23                 4496.28                                         3405.03                    3047.24      4496.70
       8-Oct                              3400.96                   2873.93                 4517.07                                         3405.03                    3047.24      4496.70
      10-Oct                              3457.37                   2888.37                 4583.83                                         3430.34                    3092.70      4517.46
      11-Oct                              3462.31                   2886.18                 4563.36                                         3437.47                    3099.98      4531.99
      12-Oct                              3470.21                   2856.39                 4624.99                                         3478.69                    3128.39      4561.27
      13-Oct                              3449.70                   2895.40                 4567.24                                         3443.81                    3120.19      4543.51
      14-Oct                              3486.42                   2890.75                 4606.54                                         3457.5                     3112.72      4524.37
      15-Oct                              3495.18                   2894.91                 4615.50                                         3457.5                     3112.72      4524.37
      17-Oct                              3472.52                   2892.24                 4573.40                                         3487.33                    3147.63      4560.93
      18-Oct                              3482.94                   2868.16                 4568.58                                         3459.15                    3135.37      4494.26
      19-Oct                              3451.54                   2867.23                 4487.61                                         3452.41                    2975.68      4499.74
      20-Oct                              3415.79                   2890.98                 4418.89                                         3431.86                    3143.82      4421.91
      21-Oct                              3478.73                   2896.12                 4530.77                                         3469.09                    3175.84      4423.01
      22-Oct                              3490.41                   2887.11                 4554.50                                         3469.09                    3175.84      4423.01
      24-Oct                              3556.22                   2875.03                 4630.82                                         3517.35                    3163.84      4539.12
      25-Oct                              3606.66                   2894.77                 4683.81                                         3605.28                    3197.59      4600.98
      26-Oct                              3612.90                   2909.23                 4750.38                                         3605.28                    3197.59      4600.98
      27-Oct                              3667.13                   2933.73                 4852.05                                         3612.4                     3190.69      4614.70
      28-Oct                              3642.37                   2927.95                 4817.23                                         3603.45                    3216.10      4650.65
      29-Oct                              3653.86                   2986.02                 4817.13                                         3603.45                    3216.10      4650.65
      31-Oct                              3632.17                   2995.59                 4768.86                                         3631.53                    3231.11      4726.23

Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Index Close



                4950

                4750

                4550

                4350

                4150
                                                   MCXSCOMDEX                              MCXSAGRI                                      MCXSMETAL
                3950
                                                   MCXCOMDEX                               MCXAGRI                                       MCXMETAL
                3750

                3550

                3350

                3150

                2950

                2750
                        1-Oct

                                 3-Oct

                                           5-Oct

                                                    7-Oct

                                                            9-Oct

                                                                      11-Oct

                                                                               13-Oct

                                                                                        15-Oct

                                                                                                 17-Oct

                                                                                                          19-Oct

                                                                                                                       21-Oct

                                                                                                                                23-Oct

                                                                                                                                           25-Oct

                                                                                                                                                    27-Oct

                                                                                                                                                             29-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                         31-Oct




               E-UpDates November 2011                                                      21                                           Surge Research Support
Global Economic Indicators
Economic & Financial Market Indicators for India’s Major Trading Partners
                    Growth                Inflation          Interest rates                              External Sector                     Stock           Country
                                                                                                                                             Market          Risk
   Indicator/                                                                                                                                                   Sovereign
                                                                       Short-term Long- term    Exchange                            Share Price                  Rating**
    Country
                         GDP            IIP        PPI            CPI         rate      Rate         Rate Trade Balance FX Reserves   Growth*
                     (% change on year ago)     (% change on year ago)          (%)             (per US$)            $ bn.

USA                    Q3/ 1.6 M09/ 3.2       M09/ 6.9    M09/ 3.9         0.10        2.00                   M08/ -711.1                             -1.6      AA+/ -ve
China                  Q3/ 9.1 M09/ 13.8                  M09/ 6.1         5.70        3.79           6.36    M09/ 172.9      3201.7                  -7.5     AA-/Stable
Hong Kong                  5.1   Q2/ 2.0                  M09/ 5.8         0.29        1.29           7.77     M09/ -51.3      277.7                 -14.3    AAA/Stable
Singapore                  5.9 M09 / 12.8                 M09/ 5.5         0.43        1.59           1.27     M09/ 46.2       233.6                 -10.5    AAA/Stable
Netherlands                1.6    M08/ 1.5    M08/ 8.9     M09/ 2.7        1.58        2.25         0.72  M08/ 59.7                                  -13.5 AAA/Stable
UK                     Q3/ 0.5    M08/ -1.0   M09/ 6.3     M09/ 5.2        1.00        2.27         0.63 M08/-158.3                                   -5.2 AAA/Stable
Germany                    2.8    M08/ 7.9    M09/ 5.7     M10/ 2.9        1.58        1.82         0.72 M08/ 197.8                                  -11.2 AAA/Stable
Belgium                    2.3    M07/ 4.0    M08/ 8.0     M10/ 3.6        1.58        4.36         0.72  M08/ 13.1                                  -17.4   AA+/ -ve
Indonesia                  6.5    M08/ 3.9                 M10/ 4.4        9.55        3.99      8940.00  M08/ 31.1            110.7                   2.4   BB+/+ve
Japan                     -1.1    M09/ -4.0   M09/ 2.6     M09/ 0.0        0.15        0.99         78.0  M08/ 20.6                                  -12.2    AA-/ -ve
France                     1.7    M08/ 4.4    M08/ 6.3     M09/ 2.2        1.58        3.07         0.72 M08/ -93.1                                  -15.9 AAA/Stable
Italy                      0.8    M08/ 4.7    M08/ 4.5     M10/ 3.4        1.58        6.39         0.72 M08/ -49.3                                  -22.1      A/ -ve
South Korea            Q3/ 3.4    M09/ 6.8                 M10/ 3.9        3.57        3.81      1122.00  M10/ 33.2            303.2                  -6.4    A/Stable
South Africa               3.0    M08/ 5.6                 M09/ 5.7        5.58        7.86         7.97   M09/ 0.4             43.2                 -16.8 BBB+/Stable
Brazil                     3.1    M08/ 1.8                 M09/ 7.3       11.40       11.47         1.75  M10/ 31.1            348.0                 -21.3  BBB-/ +ve
Malaysia                   4.0    M08/ 3.0                 M09/ 3.4        3.25        2.80         3.13  M08/ 36.7            129.1                  -4.7   A-/Stable
Thailand                   2.6    M08/ 7.0                 M10/ 4.2        3.55        3.40         30.8  M09/ 12.5            172.1                  -8.5 BBB+/Stable
Turkey                     8.8    M08/ 3.8                 M10/ 7.7       10.60        9.60         1.77 M08/ -100.9            87.5                 -26.7    BB/ +ve
Spain                      0.7    M08/ 0.6    M08/ 7.1     M10/ 3.0        1.58        5.45         0.72 M08/ -62.7                                  -11.6    AA-/-ve
Taiwan                 Q3/ 3.4    M09/ 1.6                 M09/ 1.4        1.15        1.38         30.1   M09/ 8.0            389.2                 -18.0  AA-/Stable
Pakistan           FY2011/2.       M08/ 6.8               M09/ 10.5        11.6       13.00           86.1     M09/ -16.5          15.7               -2.9      B-/Stable
                           4
                         1.6       M08/ 5.3   M08/ 5.9     M10/ 3.0        1.58        1.78           0.72     M08/ -33.0                            -14.5
Euro area

India                       7.7    M08/ 4.1               M09/ 10.1        8.65        8.97           49.2 M08/ -108.8         280.2                 -22.6    BBB-/Stable
Note: Countries have been chosen according to their ranking by share of India's exports in 2010-11. A few countries have been omitted due to insufficient data.
GDP is for Q2 of 2011 unless otherwise mentioned.Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end-Sep 2011. Interest & Exchange rates as on 2nd November 2011.
*% change of the major index in US$ terms, over 31st Dec 2010, as of 2nd November 2011. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P as of 21st Oct 2011.
For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html




                                         World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates)
                     6.0                                                                                                                      15.0
                                                  GDP                   Inflation                     Trade
                     5.0                                                                                                                      10.0
                     4.0
                                                                                                                                              5.0
                     3.0
                                                                                                                                     Trade




                                                                                                                                              0.0
                     2.0
                                                                                                                                              -5.0
                     1.0

                     0.0                                                                                                                      -10.0

                     -1.0                                                                                                                     -15.0
                                  2009          2010          2011           2012              2013            2014         2015



            E-UpDates November 2011                                        22                                 Surge Research Support
Global Stock Indices
                                         Selected Indian & International Stock Indices

              BSE Dollex-                 S&P         FTSE        NIKKEI           HSI               STI          IPC       BOVESPA
               30 (India)    DJI (US)    500(US)     100(UK)     225 (Japan)    (HongKong)       (Singapore)    (Mexico)     (Brazil)
   3-Oct-11      2,692.71    10,655.30   1,099.23    5,075.50        8,545.48     16,822.15        2,621.40     33,133.88    50,792.00
   4-Oct-11      2,641.19    10,808.71   1,123.95    4,944.40        8,456.12     16,250.27        2,531.02     32,966.23    50,686.00
   5-Oct-11      2,620.36    10,939.95   1,144.03    5,102.20        8,382.98                      2,528.71     33,000.29    51,014.00
   6-Oct-11                  11,123.33   1,164.97    5,291.30        8,522.02     17,172.28        2,603.12     33,279.72    52,290.00
   7-Oct-11      2,709.54    11,103.12   1,155.46    5,303.40        8,605.62     17,707.01        2,640.30     33,005.09    51,244.00
  10-Oct-11      2,775.88    11,433.18   1,194.89    5,399.00                     17,711.06        2,668.30     33,547.24    53,273.00
  11-Oct-11      2,756.07    11,416.30   1,195.54    5,395.70        8,773.68     18,141.59        2,693.05     33,681.80    53,838.00
  12-Oct-11      2,839.07    11,518.85   1,207.25    5,441.80        8,738.90     18,329.46        2,737.75     34,470.36
  13-Oct-11      2,818.27    11,478.13   1,203.66    5,403.40        8,823.25     18,757.81        2,733.97     34,584.75    54,601.00
  14-Oct-11      2,858.13    11,644.49   1,224.58    5,466.40        8,747.96     18,501.79        2,744.17     34,848.42    55,030.00
  17-Oct-11      2,864.70    11,397.00   1,200.86    5,436.70        8,879.60     18,873.99        2,778.97     34,125.70    53,911.00
  18-Oct-11      2,788.40    11,577.05   1,225.38    5,410.40        8,741.91     18,076.46        2,724.69     35,011.71    55,032.00
  19-Oct-11      2,854.51    11,504.62   1,209.88    5,450.50        8,772.54     18,309.22        2,720.21     34,523.27    54,966.00
  20-Oct-11      2,805.44    11,541.78   1,215.39    5,384.70        8,682.15     17,983.10        2,694.01     34,395.50    54,010.00
  21-Oct-11      2,755.10    11,808.79   1,238.25    5,488.60        8,678.89     18,025.72        2,712.41     35,020.74    55,255.00
  24-Oct-11      2,786.44    11,913.62   1,254.19    5,548.10        8,843.98     18,771.82        2,760.95     35,265.56    56,892.00
  25-Oct-11      2,853.79    11,706.62   1,229.05    5,525.50        8,762.31     18,968.20        2,769.94     35,290.15    56,286.00
  26-Oct-11      2,866.34    11,869.04   1,242.00    5,553.20        8,748.47     19,066.54        2,769.94     35,818.58    57,144.00
  27-Oct-11                  12,208.55   1,284.59    5,713.80        8,926.54     19,688.70        2,847.57     36,727.21    59,270.00
  28-Oct-11      2,996.05    12,231.11   1,285.09    5,702.20        9,050.47     20,019.24        2,905.72     36,708.64    59,513.00
  31-Oct-11      2,983.54    11,955.01   1,253.30    5,544.20        8,988.39     19,864.87        2,855.77     36,159.99    58,338.00




Closing Values
                            International Stock Index Movements vs BSE Sensex ( Oct-2011, with 3rd Oct=100)

              DJI (US)                          S&P 500 (US)                    FTSE 100(UK)                   NIKKEI 225 (Japan)




           HSI (HongKong)                   STI (Singapore)                     IPC (Mexico)                   BOVESPA (Brazil)




        E-UpDates November 2011                                 23                            Surge Research Support
Global Commodity Prices
                                                  Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices
Units                            Descriptor                          Aug-10     Sep-10     Oct-10     Aug-11      Sep-11     Oct-11
Index Number                     Fuel and Non-Fuel                    148.36    150.19     159.38      190.31     188.61     182.89
Index Number                     Non-Fuel                             160.34    164.26     173.13      191.51     185.58     171.89
Index Number                     Food                                 151.36    156.14     163.18      181.74     175.30     165.48
Index Number                     Agricultural Raw Materials           122.78    125.67     133.23      151.30     150.20     141.42
Index Number                     Industrial Inputs                    166.47    170.12     181.45      198.64     193.11     175.95
Index Number                     Metals                               198.02    202.24     216.28      232.83     224.10     200.90
Index Number                     Energy                               141.35    141.96     151.34      189.60     190.38     189.32
Index Number                     Crude Oil                            142.57    143.08     153.57      189.50     190.27     188.44
US Dollars per Barrel            Crude Oil, Brent                      76.69     77.79      82.92      110.08     110.88     109.47
               "                 Crude Oil Dubai Fateh                 74.35     75.29      80.34      104.96     106.00     103.88
               "                 Crude Oil WTI                         76.60     75.26      81.90       86.33      85.62      86.41
USD per '000 Cubic Meters        Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana          155.32    140.21     123.62      146.13     140.04     128.30
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Coal, Australian thermal              96.19    101.66     104.41      127.79     131.30     127.49
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Aluminum                            2110.44   2171.24    2342.18     2380.99    2293.46    2180.65
               "                 Copper                              7302.67   7729.59    8289.76     8998.00    8300.14    7394.19
               "                 Zinc                                2047.48   2150.94    2373.56     2199.26    2075.22    1871.42
US Cents per Metric Ton          Iron Ore                             145.34    140.63     148.48      177.45     177.23     150.43
US cents per Pound               Rubber                               150.42    160.24     178.02      212.11     206.45     184.21
US cents per Pound               Cotton                                90.35    104.73     126.55      114.10     116.65     110.61
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Palm oil                             865.23    884.89     935.22     1047.51     995.18     914.44
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Sunflower Oil                       1140.05   1195.18    1304.14     1666.04    1672.77    1565.19
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Soybean Oil                          895.28    929.65    1034.85     1225.21    1218.86    1126.77
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Soybeans                             379.46    390.23     427.18      501.43     490.91     446.02
US cents per Pound               Sugar, European                       26.04     25.90      26.37       27.23      26.25      26.21
               "                 Sugar, Free Market                    18.60     22.67      26.94       28.88      26.64      26.30
               "                 Sugar, U.S.                           31.00     35.22      34.74       39.61      39.28      38.19
US cents per Kg.                 Tea                                  315.09    337.18     339.86      358.17     362.27     357.14
US cents per Pound               Coffee, Arabicas                     212.80    222.10     215.84      273.55     275.58     248.49
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Rice, Bangkok                        486.86    519.95     533.13      577.30     615.55     602.00
US Dollars per Metric Ton        Wheat, Mexico                        246.25    271.69     270.23      327.09     315.92     289.01

*New series with Base 2005=100

           Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database
                                                                                         Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices

         2012
                                                                                         Industrial Inputs Price Index includes
                                                                                         Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals
         2011
                                                                                         Agricultural Raw Materials Index
         2010                                                                            includes Timber, Cotton, Wool,
                                                                                         Rubber, and Hides Price
                                                                                         Cereals Price Index Wheat, Corn, Rice
         2009                                                                            & Barley

                                                                                         Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent,
         2008                                                                            West Texas Intermediate, and the
                                                                                         Dubai Fateh
                                                                                         Metals Price Index, Copper,
                   0        50         100        150          200     250      300      Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc,
                                                                                         Lead, and Uranium Price Indices




E-UpDates November 2011                                               24                            Surge Research Support
RBI Adjusts Stance to Reflect Deepening of the Global crisis
The RBI formulated its second quarter review of the Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2011-12 against a backdrop of
decelerating domestic demand and growth, led by global economic sentiments. A slew of regulatory and developmental policy
measures have been announced; these include new products to widen and deepen the financial markets and measures to
increase financial inclusion and strengthen the banking system. The most important measure however, was the deregulation of
the Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate, which so far remained the so called last bastion of interest rate regulation in India.
Though this could lead to both intra- and inter-bank deposit migration in the short-term, it is expected that the move will lead
to efficiency in banks’ credit-deposit management and would benefit a large number of small savers in the country. As
inflation expectations are likely to be controlled due to previous policy measures as well as the slowdown in both global and
domestic growth and demand, RBI has now shifted its stance from hawkish to neutral. This has provided significant breathing
space for domestic financial markets and corporates. Going forward, the developments—related to the sovereign debt crises
across the globe, in the global financial markets and the actual trajectory of both global and domestic commodity prices—
would determine necessary changes in the policy stance.
The highlights of the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 is presented here:

Global Economic Conditions

Global growth prospects for appear to be declining; there have been significant downward revisions in growth projections.
Business and consumer confidence have dampened on the back of euro area sovereign debt crisis. Private sector balance sheets
are at risk and significant weakness in the banking sector has re-emerged. In its World Economic Outlook of September 2011,
the IMF has also significantly lowered its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 and 0.5 percentage points
for 2012.

Global commodity prices have softened but have stayed elevated. The current Brent crude oil price is still over 25 per cent
higher than its average for 2010-11. The IMF has revised upwards its consumer price inflation forecast for emerging and
developing economies. According to the IMF (WEO, September 2011), consumer price inflation is likely to increase from 1.6
per cent in 2010 to 2.6 per cent in 2011 in advanced economies, and from 6.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent in emerging and
developing economies.

Indian Economy—Trends and Outlook

Growth — Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend. Agriculture prospects remain encouraging; however,
moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. A major downside risk to growth emanates from the global
macroeconomic environment. A comparative study of business expectations surveys, conducted by different agencies,
indicates stiff moderation in business climate. Both global and domestic factors seem to have weakened the perception about
the performance of the economy. The CII and FICCI business confidence indices have shown significant decline over the
previous quarter and year too. The 55th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI, showed further decline in Business
Expectation Index: The demand conditions of the Indian manufacturing sector continued to moderate as net responses on
production, order books and exports declined. The baseline projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards to 7.6
per cent

Inflation—Inflationary pressures are strong and persistent due to structural rigidities, continuing strong demand and the
adaptive nature of inflation expectations. Domestic price pressures still remain significant and broad-based. Food inflation is
likely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP revisions. An increase in administered
petroleum prices and electricity prices could lead to further rise in inflation. The latest round of Inflation Expectation Survey
of Households exhibits marginal increase in both perceived and expected inflation till the next quarter. The baseline projection
for WPI inflation for March 2012 is kept unchanged at 7 per cent. Elevated inflationary pressures are expected to ease from
December 2011, though uncertainties about sudden adverse developments remain.

Aggregate demand — Investment demand is softening as a result of combination of factors including monetary tightening,
hindrances to project execution, deteriorating business confidence and slowing global economy. Planned corporate fixed
investment in new projects declined significantly since the second half of 2010-11 consequently, the pipeline of investment is
likely to shrink, putting growth in 2012-13 at risk. Private consumption is also starting to soften in parts, but it remains robust
overall as is evident from corporate sales performance. Sales growth continues to be healthy, but profits are under pressure;
based on an analysis of a sample of 2,426 non-financial companies, margins of corporates in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated across
sectors compared with their levels in Q4 of 2010-11, while a classification of companies into the use-based segments of the IIP
indicated that the intermediate goods segment registered the maximum decline in margins, reflecting the impact of commodity
prices.. The additional Government borrowing program can potentially crowd out more productive private sector investment. If
the fiscal deficit is higher than the budgeted level it will have additional implications for both growth and inflation.



E-UpDates November 2011                                        25                               Surge Research Support
External Sector —The Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened in Q1 of 2011-12, despite a surge in exports and higher net
invisibles receipts. Going forward, exports could decelerate as global growth slows down. Invisible earnings may also
decelerate as slow down in US and euro area could impact software exports. Sharp decline in FII flows in Q2 of 2011-12 has
been largely offset by strong FDI flows. However, capital flows are entering an uncertain phase with increased financial stress
and worsening global growth prospects. External sector outlook, although stable, warrants close monitoring.

Liquidity & Credit —During Q2 of 2011-12, liquidity conditions, though in deficit mode in line with the policy objective,
remained comfortable. Bank credit growth is presently above the indicative trajectory. This has been supplemented by
increased resource flows from non-banking sources. Going forward, credit growth is expected to moderate as growth slows.
Money supply (M3) growth projection for 2011-12 has been retained at 15.5 per cent and growth of non-food credit at 18 per
cent.

Financial Markets—Volatility spillovers impacted domestic currency and equity markets; rupee depreciation and the fall in
equity indices in Q2 of 2011-12 were comparable to the patterns in most other emerging markets. Money market rates
remained in line with policy signals, while G-sec yields hardened after the announcement of additional market borrowing.
During April-July 2011, the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement, however, since August, the rupee depreciated against
all four major international currencies, reflecting prevailing global market sentiment led FII-sell-offs. Between March and
September 2011, the nominal depreciation of rupee against the US dollar was at 8.7 per cent and the rupee depreciated a
further 2.3 per cent between end-September and October 21, 2011. According to the assessment of the June 2011 Financial
Stability Report, The banking sector was resilient, though going forward stress tests pointed to the strains in profitability and
asset quality. Under severe stress tests, banks might also face liquidity constraints.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has been tightened considerably with an effective 500 bps rate hike cumulatively and a 100 bps increase in
CRR in a span of 20 months since February 2010. The effective tightening has been of 500 basis points as liquidity in the
system transited from surplus to deficit. This monetary policy response has been calibrated on the basis of India specific
growth-inflation dynamics in the broader context of persistent global uncertainty. Monetary transmission has helped raise
deposit and lending rates, correct the mismatch between deposit and credit growth and dampen aggregate demand.

Monetary Measures
   The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been increased by 25 basis points, from 8.25 per cent to
   8.5 per cent with immediate effect.

     As per the new operating procedure, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a 100 basis point spread below
     the repo rate, automatically adjusts to 7.5 per cent.

     The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, gets
     recalibrated t0 9.5 per cent.

     The Bank Rate remains at 6.0 per cent.

     The cash reserve ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 6 per cent of NDTL of scheduled banks.



Guidance—The expected inflation outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run;
notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November (December release), the likelihood of a rate action in the
December mid-quarter review is relatively low. If the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be
warranted.

Developmental and Regulatory Polices

Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate
RBI has decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect; banks are free to determine their
savings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions:

First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs.1 lakh, irrespective of the amount
in the account within this limit.



E-UpDates November 2011                                        26                              Surge Research Support
Second, for savings bank deposits over Rs.1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However,
there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit.

Several up coming developmental and regulatory policy changes have been announced; these include:

Financial Market Products— to issue the final guidelines on the cash settled 5-year and 2-year IRFs, including the final
settlement price by end-December 2011. to make the guidelines on CDS effective by end-November 2011.             to issue
guidelines on short sale in government securities by end-December 2011.
Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion— To provide enhanced banking services in Tier 2 centres, it is proposed
to permit domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) to open branches in Tier 2 centres (with population 50,000
to 99,999 as per Census 2001) without the need to take permission from the Reserve Bank in each case, subject to reporting.
As there is a need to increase the maximum permissible limit of individual housing loans that can be granted by the UCBs, as
also to increase the maximum repayment period for such loans, it is proposed: to increase the individual housing loan limit
from Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 30 lakh for Tier I UCBs and from Rs. 50 lakh to Rs. 70 lakh for Tier II UCBs, subject to extant
prudential exposure limits; and to enhance the maximum repayment period of housing loans from the present period of 15
years to 20 years. It was announced in the Annual Monetary Policy Statement that the RBI would adhere to internationally
agreed phase-in period (beginning January 1, 2013) for implementation of the Basel III framework; it is proposed to issue the
draft guidelines for implementing the Basel III framework by end-December 2011.

Non-Banking Financial Companies— It is proposed to introduce a new category of NBFCs called Non-Banking Financial
Company – Micro Finance Institutions (NBFC-MFIs), the regulatory framework of which will be broadly based on the
recommendations of the Malegam Committee. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued by end-November 2011.

The full report is available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx
                                                                                   Summary by Surge Research Support
                                                                                                        October 2011




E-UpDates November 2011                                             27                        Surge Research Support
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E-UpDates-November11—Global and Indian Economic Indicators

  • 1.
    November 2011 Surge ResearchSupport www.ecofin-surge.co.in
  • 2.
    Table of Contents Contents Page 1. Important Rates to Remember ………… 3 2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators ………… 4 3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators ………… 6 4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators ………… 7 5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates ………… 9 6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates ………… 11 7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets ………… 14 8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows ………… 17 9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets ………… 20 10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators ………… 22 11. Global Economy — Stock Indices ………… 23 12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 24 Special Feature — RBI's Review of Monetary Policy for Q2 of 2011-12 25 www.ecofin-surge.co.in E-UpDates November 2011 2 Surge Research Support
  • 3.
    GDP IIP* 2010-11 8.50% Aug-11 4.10% 2009-10 8.00% Aug-10 4.50% As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10 As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10 Bank rate 6.00% 6.00% CRR 6.00% 6.00% Repo rate 8.50% 6.00% Base Rate 10.00-10.75% 7.50-8.00% Reverse repo 7.50% 5.00% CMR 6.90-8.62% 4.75-8.00% Inflation (WPI) Oil Price (World Average) Sep-11 9.72% Oct-11 106.04 Sep-10 8.98% Oct-10 79.32 Spot Price FOB $ per barrel $/Rupee Rate Purchasing Managers Index October 31-Oct-11 48.87 HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI 52.0 29-Oct-10 44.54 HSBC Markit Services PMI 49.1 RBI Reference rate *New Series with Base : 2004-05=100. For Global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html For explanations visit http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html E-UpDates November 2011 3 Surge Research Support
  • 4.
    Growth Indicators GDP Growth Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2011-12 7.7* 7.7* 2010-11 8.8* 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.5 GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices] Q1 Rs.Crore YoY Growth Q1 Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2010-11* (Share in 2011-12* (Share in GDP) GDP) (%) (%) 1 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 160,771 2.4 167,091 3.9 2 Mining & Quarrying 26,354 7.4 26,832 1.8 3 Manufacturing 183,488 10.6 196,699 7.2 4 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply. 23,204 5.5 25,042 7.9 5 Construction 93,514 7.7 94,639 1.2 6 Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication 299,600 12.1 337,872 12.8 7 Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services. 205,870 9.8 224,574 9.1 8 Community, Social & Personal Services. 145,485 8.2 153,589 5.6 9 GDP at factor cost (1 to 8) 1,138,286 8.8 1,226,339 7.7 10 Private final consumption expenditure 748,395 9.5 (61.7) 795,683 6.3 (60.5) 11 Government final consumption expenditure 134,161 6.7 (11.1) 136,935 2.1 (10.4) 12 Gross fixed capital formation 380,544 11.1 (31.4) 410,533 7.9 (31.2) 13 Changes in stocks 43,788 (3.6) 45,852 (3.5) 14 Valuables 29,240 (2.4) 40,723 (3.1) 15 Exports 257,587 9.8 (21.2) 320,247 24.3 (24.3) 16 Less Imports 351,037 15.2 (28.9) 433,824 23.6 (33.0) 17 Discrepancies -30,058 (-2.5) -755 (-0.1) 18 GDP at market price (10 to 17) 1,212,620 9.1 (100) 1,315,395 8.5 (100) *Estimates based on the New series of IIP. E-UpDates November 2011 4 Surge Research Support
  • 5.
    2009-10 (QE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2010-11 Rs.Crore YoY Growth (%) (RE) (%) 18 GDP at market price 48,69,317 9.1 5,298,129 8.8 19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less Subsidies ) 375,574 420,287 9 GDP at factor cost (18-19) 44,93,743 8.0 4,877,842 8.5 20 Net factor income from abroad -28,889 -43,083 21 Gross national product at factor cost 44,64,854 7.9 4,834,759 8.3 (9 + 20) 23 Net national product/National Income at factor cost (Less Depreciation) 39,46,540 7.5 4,259,782 7.9 24 Population (in million) 1170 1186 25 Per capita income (Rs.) (23/24) 33731 6.1 35917 6.5 Aug-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 FY2011-12 * FY2010-11* Production Index Index 2004-05 =100 Change (YoY, %) (Index of Industrial Production) 166.5 157.7 4.1 5.6 8.7 1. Mining 117.6 121.7 -3.4 0.2 7.7 2. Manufacturing 172.6 165.2 4.5 6.0 9.2 3. Electricity 149.4 136.4 9.5 9.5 4.1 *Apr-Aug. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05. 200 IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100) 190 180 Mining & 170 165.4 166.5 Quarrying (141.75) 160 152.9 Manufacturing 150 (755.27) 176.7 175.6 140 161.3 130 Electricity (103.16) 149.0 138.0 120 131.0 130.8 125.2 124.5 110 100 General Index (1000.0) 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 E-UpDates November 2011 5 Surge Research Support
  • 6.
    Inflation Wholesale Price Index All Primary Non-food Crude (Base: 2004-05=100) Food Articles Manufactured Commodities Articles Articles Petroleum (Inflation %) Products July - 2011 154.0 (9.20) 197.9 192.8 175.8 282.5 137.7 August - 2011 154.9 (9.78) 199.6 193.7 181.1 280.8 138.3 September - 2011 155.8 (9.72) 202.6 196.5 184.4 274.6 138.6 All India General Index Rural Areas Urban Areas Industrial Rural Agricultural (All Groups (All Groups) (All Groups) Workers Labourers Labourers combined) Base Base Base Base 1986- Base 1986- Consumer Price Index Base 2010=100 2010=100 2001=100 87=100 87=100 (Inflation %) 2010=100 July - 2011 110.5 (F) 111.7 (F) 108.9 (F) 193 (8.43) 604 (9.03) 604 (9.03) August - 2011 111.7 (P) 113.1 (P) 109.8 (P) 194 (8.99) 610 (9.71) 610 (9.53) September - 2011 113.1 (P) 114.6 (P) 111.1 (P) 197(10.06) 614 (9.25) 615 (9.43) F: Final; P: Provisional WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series Weekly Inflation (WPI) 160 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Date Food price Primary articles 6-Aug-11 9.03 11.64 150 13-Aug-11 9.8 12.40 20-Aug-11 10.05 12.93 140 27-Aug-11 9.66 13.34 3-Sep-11 9.47 13.04 130 10-Sep-11 8.84 12.17 17-Sep-11 9.13 11.43 120 9.41 10.84 24-Sep-11 1-Oct-11 9.32 10.06 110 10.60 11.18 8-Oct-11 15-Oct-11 11.43 11.75 100 22-Oct-11 12.21 12.08 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar E-UpDates November 2011 6 Surge Research Support
  • 7.
    COMPONENTS & SOURCESOF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores) March 31 September# October* 2011 2011 2011 M3 6,499,548 6,858,829 6,958,664 % change during the month 2.21 0.35 1.46 % change since March 31 16.49 5.53 7.06 (A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4) 1 Currency with the public 914,197 941,258 952,190 % change during the month 0.95 (0.17) 1.16 % change since March 31 19.03 2.96 4.16 2 Demand deposits with banks 717,660 637,922 646,007 % change during the month 6.51 0.48 1.27 % change since March 31 0.49 (11.11) (9.98) 3 Time deposits with banks 4,863,979 5,277,306 5,359,307 % change during the month 1.84 0.45 1.55 % change since March 31 18.82 8.50 10.18 4 Other deposits with RBI 3,713 2,342 1,160 % change during the month 2.63 (35.14) (50.47) % change since March 31 (1.90) (36.92) (68.76) (B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9) 5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 1,982,771 2,137,832 2,181,908 % change during the month 6.67 (0.53) 2.06 % change since March 31 18.85 7.82 10.04 i RBI's credit 396,555 356,660 394,737 % change during the month 32.09 (3.12) 10.68 % change since March 31 80.07 (10.06) (0.46) ii Other banks' credit 1,586,216 1,781,172 1,787,171 % change during the month 1.77 0.00 0.34 % change since March 31 9.54 12.29 12.67 6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 4,235,406 4,389,661 4,447,127 % change during the month 3.81 1.24 1.31 % change since March 31 21.59 3.64 5.00 i RBI's credit 2,164 1,783 1,878 % change during the month 37.83 (3.05) 5.33 % change since March 31 62.95 (17.61) (13.22) ii Other banks' credit 4,233,242 4,387,878 4,445,249 % change during the month 3.80 1.24 1.31 % change since March 31 21.58 3.65 5.01 7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking 1,393,327 1,549,140 1,598,117 sector % change during the month (0.24) 3.57 3.16 % change since March 31 9.28 11.18 14.70 8 Government's currency liabilities to the 12,724 12,959 13,312 public % change during the month 4.71 - 2.72 % change since March 31 16.53 1.85 4.62 9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii) 1,124,680 1,230,764 1,281,800 % change during the month 13.79 6.21 4.15 % change since March 31 31.10 9.43 13.97 i RBI's NNML 368,274 526,650 578,538 % change during the month (0.87) 18.00 9.85 % change since March 31 18.68 43.00 57.09 ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 756,406 704,114 703,262 % change during the month 22.62 (1.18) (0.12) % change since March 31 38.13 (6.91) (7.03) Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) # data are of September 23, 2011; (iii) * data are of October 21, 2011. E-UpDates November 2011 7 Surge Research Support
  • 8.
    COMPONENTS & SOURCESOF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore) March September October 2011 2011 2011 Reserve Money : 1,376,881 1,402,145 1,385,212 % change during the month 7.64 2.39 (1.21) % change since March 31 19.18 1.83 0.61 (A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3) 1 Currency in circulation 949,659 976,318 1,012,140 % change during the month 0.93 (0.73) 3.67 % change since March 31 18.83 2.81 6.58 2 Banker's deposits with RBI 423,509 423,286 371,661 % change during the month 26.58 10.75 (12.20) % change since March 31 20.21 (0.05) (12.24) 3 "Other" deposits with RBI 3,713 2,541 1,411 % change during the month 2.63 (29.63) (44.47) % change since March 31 -1.90 (31.56) (62.00) (B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8) 4 Net RBI credit to Government 396,555 406,753 391,984 % change during the month 32.09 10.49 (3.63) % change since March 31 80.07 2.57 (1.15) RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector 7,324 6,120 5,657 5 % change during the month 46.60 70.90 (7.57) % change since March 31 193.31 (16.44) (22.76) 5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 5,159 3,990 3,779 % change during the month 50.58 128.92 (5.29) % change since March 31 341.32 (22.66) (26.75) 5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 2,165 2,130 1,878 % change during the month 37.90 15.89 (11.83) % change since March 31 63.03 (1.62) (13.26) 6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 1,328,553 1,491,104 1,530,763 % change during the month -0.35 4.20 2.66 % change since March 31 7.84 12.24 15.22 7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 12,724 13,312 13,312 % change during the month 4.71 2.72 - % change since March 31 16.53 4.62 4.62 8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 368,274 515,142 556,503 % change during the month -0.87 15.42 8.03 % change since March 31 18.68 39.88 51.11 Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers. E-UpDates November 2011 8 Surge Research Support
  • 9.
    Exchange Rate Movementof the Rupee (INR) Average of Buying & Selling Dollar Euro Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 49.18 49.47 49.83 50.09 65.71 66.07 66.54 66.89 4-Oct-11 Tue 49.36 49.61 49.95 50.14 65.09 65.40 65.85 66.10 7-Oct-11 Fri 49.15 49.41 49.73 49.98 66.02 66.35 66.76 67.09 10-Oct-11 Mon 48.94 49.20 49.56 49.88 66.53 66.87 67.33 67.77 11-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.57 49.92 50.20 67.11 67.41 67.86 68.23 12-Oct-11 Wed 48.96 49.20 49.57 49.88 67.44 67.74 68.23 68.65 13-Oct-11 Thu 49.14 49.39 49.76 50.08 67.47 67.80 68.27 68.70 14-Oct-11 Fri 49.04 49.30 49.69 50.04 67.63 67.97 68.47 68.95 18-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.62 49.99 50.34 67.56 67.91 68.41 68.87 19-Oct-11 Wed 49.14 49.41 49.83 50.25 68.03 68.39 68.94 69.51 20-Oct-11 Thu 49.71 50.00 50.38 50.78 68.56 68.95 69.45 69.98 21-Oct-11 Fri 50.12 50.42 50.80 51.16 68.97 69.37 69.87 70.36 24-Oct-11 Mon 49.89 50.19 50.60 51.00 68.99 69.38 69.93 70.47 28-Oct-11 Fri 48.85 49.14 49.55 49.98 69.18 69.57 70.12 70.71 31-Oct-11 Mon 48.71 48.96 49.40 49.86 68.20 68.55 69.13 69.76 Pound Yen Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 76.33 76.75 77.28 77.62 63.98 64.38 64.89 65.32 4-Oct-11 Tue 75.86 76.23 76.73 76.97 64.40 64.75 65.25 65.60 7-Oct-11 Fri 76.25 76.62 77.08 77.43 64.10 64.46 64.93 65.35 10-Oct-11 Mon 76.60 76.98 77.52 77.97 63.82 64.18 64.71 65.22 11-Oct-11 Tue 77.20 77.55 78.06 78.45 64.37 64.69 65.20 65.66 12-Oct-11 Wed 77.17 77.52 78.08 78.52 63.83 64.17 64.72 65.21 13-Oct-11 Thu 77.17 77.54 78.08 78.53 63.85 64.19 64.71 65.23 14-Oct-11 Fri 77.33 77.72 78.28 78.81 63.67 64.04 64.58 65.16 18-Oct-11 Tue 77.64 78.04 78.60 79.09 64.38 64.77 65.31 65.87 19-Oct-11 Wed 77.64 78.06 78.67 79.28 64.00 64.38 64.97 65.62 20-Oct-11 Thu 78.43 78.87 79.42 79.99 64.72 65.12 65.66 66.28 21-Oct-11 Fri 79.48 79.94 80.51 81.03 65.31 65.72 66.27 66.85 24-Oct-11 Mon 79.42 79.88 80.49 81.06 65.55 65.97 66.56 67.19 28-Oct-11 Fri 78.65 79.11 79.72 80.34 64.33 64.72 65.31 65.97 31-Oct-11 Mon 78.00 78.39 79.04 79.71 62.49 62.84 63.45 64.15 E-UpDates November 2011 9 Surge Research Support
  • 10.
    Exchange Rate Movementof the Rupee (INR) Annualised Premia Dollar Euro Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 7.18 5.35 3.71 6.87 5.18 3.62 4-Oct-11 Tue 6.25 4.91 3.21 5.96 4.79 3.14 7-Oct-11 Fri 6.41 4.76 3.39 6.17 4.56 3.27 10-Oct-11 Mon 6.43 5.12 3.88 6.21 4.90 3.75 11-Oct-11 Tue 5.74 4.79 3.52 5.40 4.55 3.37 12-Oct-11 Wed 6.04 5.08 3.79 5.47 4.80 3.62 13-Oct-11 Thu 6.28 5.14 3.86 5.94 4.83 3.66 14-Oct-11 Fri 6.55 5.45 4.14 6.11 5.03 3.94 18-Oct-11 Tue 6.90 5.33 4.07 6.49 5.16 3.92 19-Oct-11 Wed 6.93 5.74 4.57 6.54 5.46 4.38 20-Oct-11 Thu 7.36 5.50 4.35 7.04 5.29 4.17 21-Oct-11 Fri 7.42 5.54 4.21 7.09 5.29 4.06 24-Oct-11 Mon 7.46 5.82 4.50 7.09 5.56 4.35 28-Oct-11 Fri 7.36 5.86 4.68 6.98 5.58 4.47 31-Oct-11 Mon 6.47 5.79 4.78 6.34 5.57 4.63 Pound Yen Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 6.89 5.07 3.42 7.77 5.84 4.23 4-Oct-11 Tue 6.01 4.67 2.95 6.72 5.42 3.76 7-Oct-11 Fri 5.98 4.45 3.12 7.05 5.28 3.95 10-Oct-11 Mon 6.12 4.86 3.61 7.08 5.70 4.44 11-Oct-11 Tue 5.58 4.53 3.28 6.23 5.26 4.06 12-Oct-11 Wed 5.58 4.80 3.53 6.68 5.70 4.39 13-Oct-11 Thu 5.91 4.80 3.56 6.58 5.50 4.35 14-Oct-11 Fri 6.22 5.01 3.85 7.30 5.87 4.74 18-Oct-11 Tue 6.44 5.04 3.77 7.42 5.90 4.67 19-Oct-11 Wed 6.61 5.41 4.26 7.36 6.17 5.13 20-Oct-11 Thu 6.94 5.17 4.02 7.77 5.97 4.90 21-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.26 3.93 7.90 6.01 4.77 24-Oct-11 Mon 7.10 5.50 4.17 7.97 6.31 5.07 28-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.55 4.34 7.62 6.23 5.18 31-Oct-11 Mon 6.09 5.41 4.43 7.03 6.29 5.40 E-UpDates November 2011 10 Surge Research Support
  • 11.
    Money Market Rates& Liquidity Over Net Injection(+)/ Repo Rates night RBI Absorption(-) of Liquidity (Repo/Reverse Rates Call LAF (Rs. Crore) Repo) (%) Money* CBLO* Mibor USD Libor 1-Oct-11 0.0 8.25/7.25% 8.04 5.98 3-Oct-11 14660.0 8.20 7.85 8.23 0.144 4-Oct-11 -18905.0 8.09 7.49 8.08 0.143 5-Oct-11 -22625.0 7.79 7.24 7.54 0.143 7-Oct-11 8280.0 7.61 7.87 8.07 0.139 8-Oct-11 0.0 8.29 8.30 10-Oct-11 71815.0 8.28 8.19 8.30 0.139 11-Oct-11 67820.0 8.28 8.21 8.30 0.142 12-Oct-11 57795.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141 13-Oct-11 55725.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141 14-Oct-11 54270.0 8.16 8.04 8.30 0.139 15-Oct-11 0.0 7.78 8.14 17-Oct-11 53635.0 8.27 8.13 8.30 0.143 18-Oct-11 41765.0 8.25 8.21 8.28 0.141 19-Oct-11 56360.0 8.23 8.23 8.29 0.141 20-Oct-11 75885.0 8.23 8.24 8.30 0.142 21-Oct-11 79770.0 8.31 8.38 8.30 0.142 22-Oct-11 0.0 8.31 8.26 24-Oct-11 98285.0 8.32 8.23 8.33 0.142 25-Oct-11 109055.0 8.5/7.5% 8.39 8.19 8.45 0.142 28-Oct-11 58445.0 8.34 8.34 8.58 0.142 29-Oct-11 0.0 8.27 8.23 31-Oct-11 52385.0 8.5/7.5% 8.54 8.44 8.58 0.142 *Weighted.Avg.Rates Call Money Mibor USD Libor 8.60 0.145 8.40 0.143 8.20 0.141 8.00 0.139 7.80 7.60 0.137 7.40 0.135 1-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 9-Oct-11 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 15-Oct-11 17-Oct-11 19-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 23-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 29-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 E-UpDates November 2011 11 Surge Research Support
  • 12.
    Debt Market Yields ConstantMaturity Yields for Government Bonds - October 2011 >10 Year & >15 Year & Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year <=15 Year <= 20 Year >20 Year 3-Oct-11 8.39 8.51 8.54 8.70 8.72 4-Oct-11 8.33 8.38 8.39 8.33 8.53 8.57 8.72 8.71 5-Oct-11 8.36 8.39 8.50 8.55 8.59 8.74 8.71 7-Oct-11 8.38 8.45 8.35 8.63 8.68 8.80 8.92 10-Oct-11 8.49 8.70 8.74 8.85 8.94 11-Oct-11 8.42 8.44 8.74 8.93 8.92 8.95 12-Oct-11 8.35 8.52 8.82 8.73 8.67 8.89 8.93 13-Oct-11 8.47 8.55 8.49 8.74 8.89 8.87 14-Oct-11 8.44 8.58 8.54 8.78 8.77 8.94 8.95 17-Oct-11 8.45 8.60 8.64 8.82 8.84 8.95 8.95 18-Oct-11 8.73 8.75 8.78 8.93 8.95 19-Oct-11 8.58 8.55 8.75 8.77 8.79 8.93 8.95 20-Oct-11 8.62 8.42 8.67 8.74 8.78 8.81 8.91 8.95 21-Oct-11 8.61 8.39 8.62 8.73 8.82 8.84 8.90 8.96 24-Oct-11 8.60 8.65 8.68 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97 25-Oct-11 8.64 8.65 8.72 8.73 8.79 8.88 8.91 28-Oct-11 8.58 8.67 8.92 8.85 8.94 8.97 8.94 31-Oct-11 8.59 8.62 8.65 8.89 8.87 8.93 8.97 8.97 Month Average 8.48 8.53 8.53 8.82 8.45 8.75 8.73 8.77 8.88 8.90 Bond Yield Spreads over Gilts - October 2011 Maturity/ Type 6 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year AAA PSU 0.89 1.08 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.63 Bank 0.84 1.05 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.68 NBFC 1.08 1.30 1.32 1.27 1.22 1.09 1.10 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99 Corporate 1.14 1.45 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.82 AA+ PSU 1.01 1.22 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.78 Bank 0.96 1.16 1.06 1.09 1.05 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.83 NBFC 1.23 1.49 1.54 1.64 1.61 1.58 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.39 Corporate 1.29 1.60 1.35 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.10 AA PSU 1.15 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.08 0.95 Bank 1.09 1.31 1.21 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 0.97 NBFC 1.47 1.69 1.69 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.85 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.57 Corporate 1.49 1.85 1.60 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.35 E-UpDates November 2011 12 Surge Research Support
  • 13.
    Weighted Average YTMs Weighted Average YTMs 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 October 2012 April 2012 September 2013 May 2012 March 2014 June 2014 E-UpDates November 2011 April 2016 July 2015 October 2015 January 2017 September 2016 September 2016 July 2017 August 2017 April 2018 13 August 2018 August 2019 April 2021 August 2020 Maturity Year July 2021 Debt Market Yields Maturity Year August 2022 August 2021 Yields of Gsecs Traded in October 2011 August 2022 September 2022 August 2023 August 2024 August 2027 August 2025 March 2026 September 2027 Surge Research Support Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - October 2011 September 2026 February 2032 August 2027 August 2028 July 2040 August 2029
  • 14.
    Equity Market Turnover BSEEquity Market BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100) Average Daily Market No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month- Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield Jul-11 5096 3039 59076.0 2813.1 6614745.5 19131.7 18131.86 18197.2 19.60 3.44 1.43 Aug-11 5086 2991 52760.3 2512.4 6058776.3 18440.07 15765.53 16676.75 18.36 3.34 1.51 Sep-11 5092 2922 53625.9 2553.6 5952377.6 17211.8 15801.01 16453.76 18.35 3.36 1.52 NSE Capital Market Segment S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100) Average Daily Market No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month- Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield Jul-11 1606 1600 230003.0 10953.0 6462338.0 5740.40 5453.95 5482.00 20.49 3.47 1.27 Aug-11 1615 1611 235253.0 11203.0 5921684.0 5551.90 4720.00 5001.00 18.29 3.08 1.42 Sep-11 1622 1698 235270.0 11203.0 5820334.0 5169.25 4758.85 4943.25 18.11 2.96 1.51 *End of the Month. Derivatives Turnover BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average Notional Notional Daily No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover Turnover Month / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.) Jul-11 706 19.76 532 15.58 30 0.85 …. … 1268 36.18 1.72 Aug-11 428 10.81 1736 47.02 …. … …. … 2164 57.82 2.75 Sep-11 19303 474.08 7759 241.04 4627 122.25 93 2.21 31782 839.58 39.98 NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average Notional Notional Daily No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover Turnover Month / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.) Jul-11 10048859 265640.93 12260020 349890.69 66268437 1867725.5 2800430 81707.72 91377746 2564964.83 122141.18 Aug-11 14585694 347176.6 13366537 333790.92 86141851 2209523.7 2791679 73258.02 116885761 2963749.16 141130.91 Sep-11 14796435 346826.29 13329926 326289.5 83122036 2085730 3057248 76418 114305645 2835263.82 135012.56 E-UpDates November 2011 14 Surge Research Support
  • 15.
    Index Movements BSE: BSESensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100) Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 3-Oct-11 16255.97 16255.97 16056.33 16151.45 17.77 3.25 1.57 4-Oct-11 16081.77 16202.38 15745.43 15864.86 17.45 3.19 1.60 5-Oct-11 15967.72 16044.91 15760.53 15792.41 17.39 3.18 1.60 7-Oct-11 16222.49 16347.48 16148.97 16232.54 17.80 3.26 1.56 10-Oct-11 16270.07 16595.93 16230.77 16557.23 18.18 3.33 1.53 11-Oct-11 16668.15 16774.12 16510.71 16536.47 18.17 3.33 1.53 12-Oct-11 16660.43 16987.06 16608.57 16958.39 18.52 3.39 1.50 13-Oct-11 17048.00 17084.07 16854.03 16883.92 18.39 3.37 1.51 14-Oct-11 16836.83 17112.45 16828.45 17082.69 18.59 3.41 1.50 17-Oct-11 17176.05 17188.55 16928.38 17025.09 18.40 3.39 1.50 18-Oct-11 16817.38 16824.76 16669.04 16748.29 17.91 3.33 1.53 19-Oct-11 16883.36 17106.99 16874.34 17085.34 18.28 3.40 1.50 20-Oct-11 16911.85 16962.06 16744.99 16936.89 18.11 3.38 1.51 21-Oct-11 16975.79 17032.32 16752.21 16785.64 17.97 3.35 1.52 24-Oct-11 17011.06 17104.88 16898.60 16939.28 18.13 3.39 1.50 25-Oct-11 17012.79 17322.13 16900.26 17254.86 18.43 3.44 1.48 26-Oct-11 17336.34 17350.49 17273.52 17288.83 18.48 3.45 1.48 28-Oct-11 17671.86 17908.13 17671.86 17804.80 18.96 3.55 1.44 31-Oct-11 17806.21 17813.11 17668.27 17705.01 18.82 3.52 1.45 5400 17650 5350 5300 17400 5250 5200 17150 5150 16900 5100 5050 16650 5000 16400 4950 4900 16150 BSE NSE 4850 15900 4800 4750 15650 4700 10-Oct-11 11-Oct-11 12-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 14-Oct-11 17-Oct-11 18-Oct-11 19-Oct-11 20-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 28-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 E-UpDates November 2011 15 Surge Research Support
  • 16.
    NSE: S&P CNXNifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100) Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 3-Oct-11 4874.40 4879.15 4823.90 4849.50 17.51 2.86 1.56 4-Oct-11 4823.50 4869.75 4728.30 4772.15 17.23 2.82 1.59 5-Oct-11 4791.30 4827.80 4741.00 4751.30 17.16 2.81 1.60 7-Oct-11 4883.65 4922.60 4861.20 4888.05 17.65 2.89 1.55 10-Oct-11 4886.85 4991.15 4882.05 4979.60 18.03 2.99 1.51 11-Oct-11 5019.90 5045.10 4964.00 4974.35 18.01 2.98 1.52 12-Oct-11 5011.20 5109.80 4997.65 5099.40 18.43 3.06 1.48 13-Oct-11 5130.80 5136.95 5067.65 5077.85 18.35 3.04 1.49 14-Oct-11 5057.35 5141.40 5056.60 5132.30 18.55 3.08 1.47 17-Oct-11 5156.20 5160.20 5084.50 5118.25 18.50 3.07 1.47 18-Oct-11 5049.45 5057.50 5011.05 5037.50 18.00 3.02 1.50 19-Oct-11 5080.45 5148.05 5075.30 5139.15 18.36 3.08 1.47 20-Oct-11 5086.55 5099.00 5033.95 5091.90 18.14 3.05 1.48 21-Oct-11 5106.60 5120.75 5037.95 5049.95 17.99 3.03 1.49 24-Oct-11 5114.70 5145.65 5084.75 5098.35 18.10 3.06 1.48 25-Oct-11 5137.90 5211.00 5085.55 5191.60 18.39 3.11 1.45 26-Oct-11 5214.95 5219.25 5196.15 5201.80 18.43 3.12 1.45 28-Oct-11 5341.90 5399.70 5322.80 5360.70 19.03 3.21 1.41 31-Oct-11 5358.90 5360.25 5314.60 5326.60 18.90 3.19 1.42 FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures (Expiry 24-Nov-11) Open High Low Close Settlement Price No. of contracts Change in OI 3-Oct-11 4869.9 4890.0 4827.7 4871.4 4871.4 8823.0 91700.0 4-Oct-11 4845.0 4897.7 4740.0 4788.5 4788.5 12639.0 1,27,000 5-Oct-11 4802.8 4856.0 4761.0 4782.1 4782.1 11128.0 95450.0 7-Oct-11 4890.3 4951.0 4886.0 4909.9 4909.9 12600.0 -6350.0 10-Oct-11 4914.0 5018.0 4902.5 5007.5 5007.5 12002.0 1,16,100 11-Oct-11 5050.6 5068.0 4985.1 4997.8 4997.8 12909.0 1,75,550 12-Oct-11 5015.6 5135.0 5015.6 5127.5 5127.5 16697.0 2,84,850 13-Oct-11 5150.0 5154.0 5082.1 5089.4 5089.4 16266.0 2,65,350 14-Oct-11 5081.0 5169.0 5077.5 5160.6 5160.6 17295.0 3,02,950 17-Oct-11 5184.0 5184.0 5100.0 5132.5 5132.5 21213.0 1,72,650 18-Oct-11 5075.0 5107.0 5030.1 5060.6 5060.6 48837.0 12,89,600 19-Oct-11 5084.9 5172.9 5084.9 5165.7 5165.7 82834.0 24,39,900 20-Oct-11 5110.2 5126.9 5051.0 5119.7 5119.7 1,03,748 18,81,200 21-Oct-11 5119.0 5149.8 5058.5 5074.1 5074.1 1,75,607 46,55,400 24-Oct-11 5135.6 5176.4 5115.2 5128.7 5128.7 2,01,013 43,56,300 25-Oct-11 5151.5 5249.8 5112.1 5229.2 5229.2 4,15,096 88,91,850 26-Oct-11 5241.2 5257.2 5227.0 5232.1 5232.1 82639.0 6,09,700 28-Oct-11 5376.6 5402.8 5341.3 5385.5 5385.5 3,61,703 10,00,950 31-Oct-11 5369.7 5377.9 5333.7 5347.1 5347.1 2,67,544 2,59,700 E-UpDates November 2011 16 Surge Research Support
  • 17.
    Capital Market Flows Mutual Funds Investment Trends Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Equity (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) 3-Oct-11 387.1 620.1 -233.0 4-Oct-11 558.8 654.0 -95.2 5-Oct-11 528.1 424.4 103.7 7-Oct-11 739.3 555.2 184.1 10-Oct-11 694.2 500.4 193.8 11-Oct-11 777.7 433.2 344.5 12-Oct-11 680.2 500.7 179.5 13-Oct-11 429.9 511.9 -82.0 14-Oct-11 465.9 483.6 -17.8 17-Oct-11 292.8 522.4 -229.6 18-Oct-11 451.0 526.1 -75.1 19-Oct-11 423.4 432.9 -9.4 20-Oct-11 302.6 489.5 -186.9 21-Oct-11 340.2 394.6 -54.4 24-Oct-11 323.0 412.9 -89.9 25-Oct-11 772.5 794.5 -22.0 26-Oct-11 39.2 4.2 35.0 28-Oct-11 688.3 845.3 -157.0 31-Oct-11 413.6 563.6 -150.0 Total for Month 9307.8 9669.5 -361.7 Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Debt (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) 3-Oct-11 8440.6 3803.1 4637.5 4-Oct-11 5203.1 3350.7 1852.3 5-Oct-11 5556.4 4141.4 1415.0 7-Oct-11 4634.4 1981.7 2652.7 10-Oct-11 2771.1 927.1 1844.0 11-Oct-11 2063.1 2157.8 -94.8 12-Oct-11 2767.2 1672.2 1095.0 13-Oct-11 2479.8 1969.5 510.3 14-Oct-11 1607.9 1599.6 8.3 17-Oct-11 2093.5 1539.6 553.9 18-Oct-11 2345.1 2330.5 14.7 19-Oct-11 2274.7 3054.0 -779.3 20-Oct-11 2360.6 1467.6 893.0 21-Oct-11 2464.8 2158.0 306.8 24-Oct-11 1879.3 2813.3 -934.0 25-Oct-11 3792.6 2619.5 1173.1 26-Oct-11 0.0 53.5 -53.5 28-Oct-11 1714.1 1649.2 64.9 31-Oct-11 3563.4 3859.7 -296.3 Total for Month 58011.7 43148.0 14863.6 E-UpDates November 2011 17 Surge Research Support
  • 18.
    Mutual Funds AssetPosition Mutual Funds Asset Position Private Sector Public Sector Mutual (of which) April-September 2011 Mutual Funds Funds UTI Total Mobilisation of Funds 2,865,442.8 607,350.4 287,785.8 3,472,793.2 Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds 52,450.9 2,828.6 4,208.4 55,279.5 Cumulative Position of Net Assets as 529,998.7 111,938.3 55,732.2 641,937.0 on Sep, 30, 2011 (%) 82.56% 17.44% 8.68% 100.00% in Rs. Crore ECB Jul-11 Aug-11 Automatic Route 3,677,174,928 2,683,013,998 Approval Route 492,247,312 1,025,219,776 Total ECB (& FCCB) 4,169,422,241 3,708,233,774 Value in USD FII Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets Debt Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Net Investment (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) US$ million 3-Oct-11 1466.1 723.9 742.2 151.7 4-Oct-11 562.1 1913.3 -1351.2 -273.4 5-Oct-11 1154.5 1504.5 -350.0 -71.1 7-Oct-11 1427.5 1565.4 -137.9 -28.0 10-Oct-11 888.0 638.2 249.9 50.9 11-Oct-11 1161.8 507.2 654.6 133.4 12-Oct-11 1646.5 379.0 1267.6 258.5 13-Oct-11 1184.3 963.5 220.7 44.8 14-Oct-11 1076.4 665.1 411.3 83.9 17-Oct-11 647.9 281.4 366.5 74.7 18-Oct-11 246.6 292.9 -46.3 -9.5 19-Oct-11 486.7 1153.1 -666.4 -135.6 20-Oct-11 1472.3 1212.7 259.6 52.8 21-Oct-11 1390.6 533.2 857.4 172.5 24-Oct-11 1137.4 602.9 534.5 106.8 25-Oct-11 719.4 1854.3 -1134.8 -227.5 28-Oct-11 476.8 657.2 -180.4 -36.3 31-Oct-11 359.5 655.4 -295.9 -60.6 Total for Month 17504.4 16103.2 1401.4 287.8 Total for 2011 218231.0 198873.4 19357.7 4290.3 E-UpDates November 2011 18 Surge Research Support
  • 19.
    Equity Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Net Investment (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) US$ million 3-Oct-11 6193.8 6504.1 -310.3 -63.4 4-Oct-11 1639.8 2422.2 -782.4 -158.3 5-Oct-11 2080.2 3046.4 -966.1 -196.3 7-Oct-11 2026.8 2996.1 -969.3 -197.0 10-Oct-11 3563.9 3072.7 491.3 100.0 11-Oct-11 2471.0 2189.8 281.2 57.3 12-Oct-11 2833.1 2650.0 183.1 37.3 13-Oct-11 2674.9 2025.8 649.2 131.8 14-Oct-11 2539.1 1873.3 665.8 135.8 17-Oct-11 1547.0 1630.3 -83.3 -17.0 18-Oct-11 1889.9 1492.4 397.5 81.3 19-Oct-11 1808.3 2057.5 -249.2 -50.7 20-Oct-11 1776.2 1758.8 17.3 3.5 21-Oct-11 1469.3 1900.2 -430.9 -86.7 24-Oct-11 1376.3 1554.5 -178.2 -35.6 25-Oct-11 1760.1 1613.4 146.8 29.4 28-Oct-11 3688.8 3234.4 454.5 91.5 31-Oct-11 5567.7 3207.3 2360.4 483.5 Total for Month 46906.2 45229.2 1677.4 346.5 Total for 2011 527367.3 525981.6 1385.7 397.8 No of Registered FII's :1750 as on 31.10.2011. 2360.4 800.0 500.0 Net Flows (Rs.Cr.) 200.0 -100.0 -400.0 -700.0 FII Equity MF Equity -1000.0 3-Oct- 10-Oct- 17-Oct- 24-Oct- 31-Oct- 11 11 11 11 11 Aug-11 Apr.- Aug. 2011-12 Apr.- Aug. 2010-11 Foreign Investment Direct Investment 2,830 20,973 11,390 Portfolio Investment -1,797 2,493 13,327 Total 1,033 23,466 24,717 in USD Million E-UpDates November 2011 19 Surge Research Support
  • 20.
    Commodity Futures &Spot Markets Value of Trade on Commodity Exchanges (in Rs.Crore) During MCX NCDEX All Exchanges YoY % Growth 1st - 15th Oct ’11 567,972.64 63,564.37 657,000.22 32.01 16th - 30th Sep ’11 908,638.47 81,178.13 1,021,739.02 122.69 1st - 15th Sep ’11 859,577.39 67,063.65 953,370.10 118.26 Commodity Futures & Spot Prices Sugar* Wheat** Refined Soya Oil** Energy: Crude Oil* Bullion: Silver* (100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (1 Kg.) Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot 1-Oct-11 2728.0 1128.0 1164.9 587.4 633.1 3963.0 3875.0 51181.0 51100.0 3-Oct-11 2746.0 2694.0 1131.4 1154.6 591.4 630.0 3869.0 3875.0 52044.0 52000.0 4-Oct-11 2729.0 2692.0 1123.8 1150.4 581.5 629.7 3825.0 3836.0 50223.0 51338.0 5-Oct-11 2720.0 2692.0 1116.6 1145.7 578.0 628.1 3943.0 3725.0 51226.0 49046.0 6-Oct-11 2720.0 1116.6 578.0 4065.0 3920.0 53237.0 52993.0 7-Oct-11 2738.0 2690.0 1119.6 1150.0 581.4 627.6 4062.0 4063.0 51901.0 51958.0 8-Oct-11 2746.0 2688.0 1124.4 1146.7 579.7 625.9 4095.0 4077.0 52297.0 53049.0 10-Oct-11 2747.0 2700.0 1124.4 1143.8 588.3 623.4 4211.0 4077.0 53028.0 52543.0 11-Oct-11 2758.0 2721.0 1123.4 1154.6 589.4 621.2 4264.0 4191.0 53269.0 53545.0 12-Oct-11 2779.0 2723.0 1130.4 1153.0 599.9 624.8 4230.0 4208.0 54162.0 52701.0 13-Oct-11 2785.0 2743.0 1128.4 1150.9 594.7 623.4 4204.0 4214.0 52914.0 52458.0 14-Oct-11 2760.0 2754.0 1122.0 1152.8 604.9 627.5 4281.0 4129.0 53292.0 53371.0 15-Oct-11 2770.0 1117.2 1152.5 608.9 632.8 4299.0 4259.0 53405.0 52873.0 17-Oct-11 2804.0 2757.0 1109.4 1155.0 609.2 639.5 4279.0 4259.0 52769.0 51764.0 18-Oct-11 2779.0 2754.0 1106.4 1152.5 606.2 638.4 4363.0 4223.0 53157.0 52497.0 19-Oct-11 2774.0 2754.0 1093.6 1152.5 613.6 640.5 4357.0 4341.0 52228.0 51504.0 20-Oct-11 2775.0 2756.0 1088.8 1149.6 609.7 637.9 4291.0 4235.0 51701.0 51939.0 21-Oct-11 2787.0 1091.2 1143.4 614.5 638.2 4371.0 4279.0 52784.0 52518.0 22-Oct-11 2777.0 2775.0 1094.6 1143.2 614.0 637.5 4381.0 4376.0 53034.0 52809.0 24-Oct-11 2766.0 2779.0 1091.8 1141.3 615.8 638.3 4546.0 4376.0 53077.0 53018.0 25-Oct-11 2807.0 2785.0 1113.4 1143.6 627.8 640.7 4647.0 4552.0 55064.0 53030.0 26-Oct-11 2785.0 1112.4 625.5 4574.0 4627.0 55711.0 27-Oct-11 2788.0 2785.0 1109.2 630.1 4595.0 4479.0 57859.0 53030.0 28-Oct-11 2781.0 2786.0 1082.4 1157.5 621.9 4535.0 4666.0 57395.0 53030.0 29-Oct-11 2770.0 1092.8 1163.8 623.8 640.6 4541.0 4556.0 57373.0 53030.0 31-Oct-11 2782.0 2759.0 1092.6 1181.3 618.2 634.9 4516.0 4556.0 56427.0 56003.0 *Multi Commodity Exchange of India. ** National Commodity & Derivatives Exchng Ltd. Futures: Nov contract; Silver Dec contract. E-UpDates November 2011 20 Surge Research Support
  • 21.
    Commodity Futures &Spot Indices Futures Index : MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL Spot Index : MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL 1-Oct 3360.29 2944.47 4445.76 3367.16 3149.98 4443.47 3-Oct 3356.76 2944.36 4499.31 3332.45 3087.26 4449.78 4-Oct 3303.37 2929.12 4396.04 3310.44 3107.53 4453.39 5-Oct 3347.53 2900.63 4452.38 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15 6-Oct 3409.81 2898.37 4541.06 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15 7-Oct 3390.29 2901.23 4496.28 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70 8-Oct 3400.96 2873.93 4517.07 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70 10-Oct 3457.37 2888.37 4583.83 3430.34 3092.70 4517.46 11-Oct 3462.31 2886.18 4563.36 3437.47 3099.98 4531.99 12-Oct 3470.21 2856.39 4624.99 3478.69 3128.39 4561.27 13-Oct 3449.70 2895.40 4567.24 3443.81 3120.19 4543.51 14-Oct 3486.42 2890.75 4606.54 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37 15-Oct 3495.18 2894.91 4615.50 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37 17-Oct 3472.52 2892.24 4573.40 3487.33 3147.63 4560.93 18-Oct 3482.94 2868.16 4568.58 3459.15 3135.37 4494.26 19-Oct 3451.54 2867.23 4487.61 3452.41 2975.68 4499.74 20-Oct 3415.79 2890.98 4418.89 3431.86 3143.82 4421.91 21-Oct 3478.73 2896.12 4530.77 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01 22-Oct 3490.41 2887.11 4554.50 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01 24-Oct 3556.22 2875.03 4630.82 3517.35 3163.84 4539.12 25-Oct 3606.66 2894.77 4683.81 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98 26-Oct 3612.90 2909.23 4750.38 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98 27-Oct 3667.13 2933.73 4852.05 3612.4 3190.69 4614.70 28-Oct 3642.37 2927.95 4817.23 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65 29-Oct 3653.86 2986.02 4817.13 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65 31-Oct 3632.17 2995.59 4768.86 3631.53 3231.11 4726.23 Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Index Close 4950 4750 4550 4350 4150 MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL 3950 MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL 3750 3550 3350 3150 2950 2750 1-Oct 3-Oct 5-Oct 7-Oct 9-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 27-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct E-UpDates November 2011 21 Surge Research Support
  • 22.
    Global Economic Indicators Economic& Financial Market Indicators for India’s Major Trading Partners Growth Inflation Interest rates External Sector Stock Country Market Risk Indicator/ Sovereign Short-term Long- term Exchange Share Price Rating** Country GDP IIP PPI CPI rate Rate Rate Trade Balance FX Reserves Growth* (% change on year ago) (% change on year ago) (%) (per US$) $ bn. USA Q3/ 1.6 M09/ 3.2 M09/ 6.9 M09/ 3.9 0.10 2.00 M08/ -711.1 -1.6 AA+/ -ve China Q3/ 9.1 M09/ 13.8 M09/ 6.1 5.70 3.79 6.36 M09/ 172.9 3201.7 -7.5 AA-/Stable Hong Kong 5.1 Q2/ 2.0 M09/ 5.8 0.29 1.29 7.77 M09/ -51.3 277.7 -14.3 AAA/Stable Singapore 5.9 M09 / 12.8 M09/ 5.5 0.43 1.59 1.27 M09/ 46.2 233.6 -10.5 AAA/Stable Netherlands 1.6 M08/ 1.5 M08/ 8.9 M09/ 2.7 1.58 2.25 0.72 M08/ 59.7 -13.5 AAA/Stable UK Q3/ 0.5 M08/ -1.0 M09/ 6.3 M09/ 5.2 1.00 2.27 0.63 M08/-158.3 -5.2 AAA/Stable Germany 2.8 M08/ 7.9 M09/ 5.7 M10/ 2.9 1.58 1.82 0.72 M08/ 197.8 -11.2 AAA/Stable Belgium 2.3 M07/ 4.0 M08/ 8.0 M10/ 3.6 1.58 4.36 0.72 M08/ 13.1 -17.4 AA+/ -ve Indonesia 6.5 M08/ 3.9 M10/ 4.4 9.55 3.99 8940.00 M08/ 31.1 110.7 2.4 BB+/+ve Japan -1.1 M09/ -4.0 M09/ 2.6 M09/ 0.0 0.15 0.99 78.0 M08/ 20.6 -12.2 AA-/ -ve France 1.7 M08/ 4.4 M08/ 6.3 M09/ 2.2 1.58 3.07 0.72 M08/ -93.1 -15.9 AAA/Stable Italy 0.8 M08/ 4.7 M08/ 4.5 M10/ 3.4 1.58 6.39 0.72 M08/ -49.3 -22.1 A/ -ve South Korea Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 6.8 M10/ 3.9 3.57 3.81 1122.00 M10/ 33.2 303.2 -6.4 A/Stable South Africa 3.0 M08/ 5.6 M09/ 5.7 5.58 7.86 7.97 M09/ 0.4 43.2 -16.8 BBB+/Stable Brazil 3.1 M08/ 1.8 M09/ 7.3 11.40 11.47 1.75 M10/ 31.1 348.0 -21.3 BBB-/ +ve Malaysia 4.0 M08/ 3.0 M09/ 3.4 3.25 2.80 3.13 M08/ 36.7 129.1 -4.7 A-/Stable Thailand 2.6 M08/ 7.0 M10/ 4.2 3.55 3.40 30.8 M09/ 12.5 172.1 -8.5 BBB+/Stable Turkey 8.8 M08/ 3.8 M10/ 7.7 10.60 9.60 1.77 M08/ -100.9 87.5 -26.7 BB/ +ve Spain 0.7 M08/ 0.6 M08/ 7.1 M10/ 3.0 1.58 5.45 0.72 M08/ -62.7 -11.6 AA-/-ve Taiwan Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 1.6 M09/ 1.4 1.15 1.38 30.1 M09/ 8.0 389.2 -18.0 AA-/Stable Pakistan FY2011/2. M08/ 6.8 M09/ 10.5 11.6 13.00 86.1 M09/ -16.5 15.7 -2.9 B-/Stable 4 1.6 M08/ 5.3 M08/ 5.9 M10/ 3.0 1.58 1.78 0.72 M08/ -33.0 -14.5 Euro area India 7.7 M08/ 4.1 M09/ 10.1 8.65 8.97 49.2 M08/ -108.8 280.2 -22.6 BBB-/Stable Note: Countries have been chosen according to their ranking by share of India's exports in 2010-11. A few countries have been omitted due to insufficient data. GDP is for Q2 of 2011 unless otherwise mentioned.Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end-Sep 2011. Interest & Exchange rates as on 2nd November 2011. *% change of the major index in US$ terms, over 31st Dec 2010, as of 2nd November 2011. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P as of 21st Oct 2011. For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates) 6.0 15.0 GDP Inflation Trade 5.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 Trade 0.0 2.0 -5.0 1.0 0.0 -10.0 -1.0 -15.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E-UpDates November 2011 22 Surge Research Support
  • 23.
    Global Stock Indices Selected Indian & International Stock Indices BSE Dollex- S&P FTSE NIKKEI HSI STI IPC BOVESPA 30 (India) DJI (US) 500(US) 100(UK) 225 (Japan) (HongKong) (Singapore) (Mexico) (Brazil) 3-Oct-11 2,692.71 10,655.30 1,099.23 5,075.50 8,545.48 16,822.15 2,621.40 33,133.88 50,792.00 4-Oct-11 2,641.19 10,808.71 1,123.95 4,944.40 8,456.12 16,250.27 2,531.02 32,966.23 50,686.00 5-Oct-11 2,620.36 10,939.95 1,144.03 5,102.20 8,382.98 2,528.71 33,000.29 51,014.00 6-Oct-11 11,123.33 1,164.97 5,291.30 8,522.02 17,172.28 2,603.12 33,279.72 52,290.00 7-Oct-11 2,709.54 11,103.12 1,155.46 5,303.40 8,605.62 17,707.01 2,640.30 33,005.09 51,244.00 10-Oct-11 2,775.88 11,433.18 1,194.89 5,399.00 17,711.06 2,668.30 33,547.24 53,273.00 11-Oct-11 2,756.07 11,416.30 1,195.54 5,395.70 8,773.68 18,141.59 2,693.05 33,681.80 53,838.00 12-Oct-11 2,839.07 11,518.85 1,207.25 5,441.80 8,738.90 18,329.46 2,737.75 34,470.36 13-Oct-11 2,818.27 11,478.13 1,203.66 5,403.40 8,823.25 18,757.81 2,733.97 34,584.75 54,601.00 14-Oct-11 2,858.13 11,644.49 1,224.58 5,466.40 8,747.96 18,501.79 2,744.17 34,848.42 55,030.00 17-Oct-11 2,864.70 11,397.00 1,200.86 5,436.70 8,879.60 18,873.99 2,778.97 34,125.70 53,911.00 18-Oct-11 2,788.40 11,577.05 1,225.38 5,410.40 8,741.91 18,076.46 2,724.69 35,011.71 55,032.00 19-Oct-11 2,854.51 11,504.62 1,209.88 5,450.50 8,772.54 18,309.22 2,720.21 34,523.27 54,966.00 20-Oct-11 2,805.44 11,541.78 1,215.39 5,384.70 8,682.15 17,983.10 2,694.01 34,395.50 54,010.00 21-Oct-11 2,755.10 11,808.79 1,238.25 5,488.60 8,678.89 18,025.72 2,712.41 35,020.74 55,255.00 24-Oct-11 2,786.44 11,913.62 1,254.19 5,548.10 8,843.98 18,771.82 2,760.95 35,265.56 56,892.00 25-Oct-11 2,853.79 11,706.62 1,229.05 5,525.50 8,762.31 18,968.20 2,769.94 35,290.15 56,286.00 26-Oct-11 2,866.34 11,869.04 1,242.00 5,553.20 8,748.47 19,066.54 2,769.94 35,818.58 57,144.00 27-Oct-11 12,208.55 1,284.59 5,713.80 8,926.54 19,688.70 2,847.57 36,727.21 59,270.00 28-Oct-11 2,996.05 12,231.11 1,285.09 5,702.20 9,050.47 20,019.24 2,905.72 36,708.64 59,513.00 31-Oct-11 2,983.54 11,955.01 1,253.30 5,544.20 8,988.39 19,864.87 2,855.77 36,159.99 58,338.00 Closing Values International Stock Index Movements vs BSE Sensex ( Oct-2011, with 3rd Oct=100) DJI (US) S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100(UK) NIKKEI 225 (Japan) HSI (HongKong) STI (Singapore) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil) E-UpDates November 2011 23 Surge Research Support
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    Global Commodity Prices Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices Units Descriptor Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Index Number Fuel and Non-Fuel 148.36 150.19 159.38 190.31 188.61 182.89 Index Number Non-Fuel 160.34 164.26 173.13 191.51 185.58 171.89 Index Number Food 151.36 156.14 163.18 181.74 175.30 165.48 Index Number Agricultural Raw Materials 122.78 125.67 133.23 151.30 150.20 141.42 Index Number Industrial Inputs 166.47 170.12 181.45 198.64 193.11 175.95 Index Number Metals 198.02 202.24 216.28 232.83 224.10 200.90 Index Number Energy 141.35 141.96 151.34 189.60 190.38 189.32 Index Number Crude Oil 142.57 143.08 153.57 189.50 190.27 188.44 US Dollars per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 76.69 77.79 82.92 110.08 110.88 109.47 " Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 74.35 75.29 80.34 104.96 106.00 103.88 " Crude Oil WTI 76.60 75.26 81.90 86.33 85.62 86.41 USD per '000 Cubic Meters Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 155.32 140.21 123.62 146.13 140.04 128.30 US Dollars per Metric Ton Coal, Australian thermal 96.19 101.66 104.41 127.79 131.30 127.49 US Dollars per Metric Ton Aluminum 2110.44 2171.24 2342.18 2380.99 2293.46 2180.65 " Copper 7302.67 7729.59 8289.76 8998.00 8300.14 7394.19 " Zinc 2047.48 2150.94 2373.56 2199.26 2075.22 1871.42 US Cents per Metric Ton Iron Ore 145.34 140.63 148.48 177.45 177.23 150.43 US cents per Pound Rubber 150.42 160.24 178.02 212.11 206.45 184.21 US cents per Pound Cotton 90.35 104.73 126.55 114.10 116.65 110.61 US Dollars per Metric Ton Palm oil 865.23 884.89 935.22 1047.51 995.18 914.44 US Dollars per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 1140.05 1195.18 1304.14 1666.04 1672.77 1565.19 US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 895.28 929.65 1034.85 1225.21 1218.86 1126.77 US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybeans 379.46 390.23 427.18 501.43 490.91 446.02 US cents per Pound Sugar, European 26.04 25.90 26.37 27.23 26.25 26.21 " Sugar, Free Market 18.60 22.67 26.94 28.88 26.64 26.30 " Sugar, U.S. 31.00 35.22 34.74 39.61 39.28 38.19 US cents per Kg. Tea 315.09 337.18 339.86 358.17 362.27 357.14 US cents per Pound Coffee, Arabicas 212.80 222.10 215.84 273.55 275.58 248.49 US Dollars per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 486.86 519.95 533.13 577.30 615.55 602.00 US Dollars per Metric Ton Wheat, Mexico 246.25 271.69 270.23 327.09 315.92 289.01 *New series with Base 2005=100 Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices 2012 Industrial Inputs Price Index includes Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals 2011 Agricultural Raw Materials Index 2010 includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides Price Cereals Price Index Wheat, Corn, Rice 2009 & Barley Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent, 2008 West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh Metals Price Index, Copper, 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium Price Indices E-UpDates November 2011 24 Surge Research Support
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    RBI Adjusts Stanceto Reflect Deepening of the Global crisis The RBI formulated its second quarter review of the Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2011-12 against a backdrop of decelerating domestic demand and growth, led by global economic sentiments. A slew of regulatory and developmental policy measures have been announced; these include new products to widen and deepen the financial markets and measures to increase financial inclusion and strengthen the banking system. The most important measure however, was the deregulation of the Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate, which so far remained the so called last bastion of interest rate regulation in India. Though this could lead to both intra- and inter-bank deposit migration in the short-term, it is expected that the move will lead to efficiency in banks’ credit-deposit management and would benefit a large number of small savers in the country. As inflation expectations are likely to be controlled due to previous policy measures as well as the slowdown in both global and domestic growth and demand, RBI has now shifted its stance from hawkish to neutral. This has provided significant breathing space for domestic financial markets and corporates. Going forward, the developments—related to the sovereign debt crises across the globe, in the global financial markets and the actual trajectory of both global and domestic commodity prices— would determine necessary changes in the policy stance. The highlights of the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 is presented here: Global Economic Conditions Global growth prospects for appear to be declining; there have been significant downward revisions in growth projections. Business and consumer confidence have dampened on the back of euro area sovereign debt crisis. Private sector balance sheets are at risk and significant weakness in the banking sector has re-emerged. In its World Economic Outlook of September 2011, the IMF has also significantly lowered its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 and 0.5 percentage points for 2012. Global commodity prices have softened but have stayed elevated. The current Brent crude oil price is still over 25 per cent higher than its average for 2010-11. The IMF has revised upwards its consumer price inflation forecast for emerging and developing economies. According to the IMF (WEO, September 2011), consumer price inflation is likely to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2010 to 2.6 per cent in 2011 in advanced economies, and from 6.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent in emerging and developing economies. Indian Economy—Trends and Outlook Growth — Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend. Agriculture prospects remain encouraging; however, moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. A major downside risk to growth emanates from the global macroeconomic environment. A comparative study of business expectations surveys, conducted by different agencies, indicates stiff moderation in business climate. Both global and domestic factors seem to have weakened the perception about the performance of the economy. The CII and FICCI business confidence indices have shown significant decline over the previous quarter and year too. The 55th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI, showed further decline in Business Expectation Index: The demand conditions of the Indian manufacturing sector continued to moderate as net responses on production, order books and exports declined. The baseline projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards to 7.6 per cent Inflation—Inflationary pressures are strong and persistent due to structural rigidities, continuing strong demand and the adaptive nature of inflation expectations. Domestic price pressures still remain significant and broad-based. Food inflation is likely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP revisions. An increase in administered petroleum prices and electricity prices could lead to further rise in inflation. The latest round of Inflation Expectation Survey of Households exhibits marginal increase in both perceived and expected inflation till the next quarter. The baseline projection for WPI inflation for March 2012 is kept unchanged at 7 per cent. Elevated inflationary pressures are expected to ease from December 2011, though uncertainties about sudden adverse developments remain. Aggregate demand — Investment demand is softening as a result of combination of factors including monetary tightening, hindrances to project execution, deteriorating business confidence and slowing global economy. Planned corporate fixed investment in new projects declined significantly since the second half of 2010-11 consequently, the pipeline of investment is likely to shrink, putting growth in 2012-13 at risk. Private consumption is also starting to soften in parts, but it remains robust overall as is evident from corporate sales performance. Sales growth continues to be healthy, but profits are under pressure; based on an analysis of a sample of 2,426 non-financial companies, margins of corporates in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated across sectors compared with their levels in Q4 of 2010-11, while a classification of companies into the use-based segments of the IIP indicated that the intermediate goods segment registered the maximum decline in margins, reflecting the impact of commodity prices.. The additional Government borrowing program can potentially crowd out more productive private sector investment. If the fiscal deficit is higher than the budgeted level it will have additional implications for both growth and inflation. E-UpDates November 2011 25 Surge Research Support
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    External Sector —TheCurrent Account Deficit (CAD) widened in Q1 of 2011-12, despite a surge in exports and higher net invisibles receipts. Going forward, exports could decelerate as global growth slows down. Invisible earnings may also decelerate as slow down in US and euro area could impact software exports. Sharp decline in FII flows in Q2 of 2011-12 has been largely offset by strong FDI flows. However, capital flows are entering an uncertain phase with increased financial stress and worsening global growth prospects. External sector outlook, although stable, warrants close monitoring. Liquidity & Credit —During Q2 of 2011-12, liquidity conditions, though in deficit mode in line with the policy objective, remained comfortable. Bank credit growth is presently above the indicative trajectory. This has been supplemented by increased resource flows from non-banking sources. Going forward, credit growth is expected to moderate as growth slows. Money supply (M3) growth projection for 2011-12 has been retained at 15.5 per cent and growth of non-food credit at 18 per cent. Financial Markets—Volatility spillovers impacted domestic currency and equity markets; rupee depreciation and the fall in equity indices in Q2 of 2011-12 were comparable to the patterns in most other emerging markets. Money market rates remained in line with policy signals, while G-sec yields hardened after the announcement of additional market borrowing. During April-July 2011, the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement, however, since August, the rupee depreciated against all four major international currencies, reflecting prevailing global market sentiment led FII-sell-offs. Between March and September 2011, the nominal depreciation of rupee against the US dollar was at 8.7 per cent and the rupee depreciated a further 2.3 per cent between end-September and October 21, 2011. According to the assessment of the June 2011 Financial Stability Report, The banking sector was resilient, though going forward stress tests pointed to the strains in profitability and asset quality. Under severe stress tests, banks might also face liquidity constraints. Monetary Policy Monetary policy has been tightened considerably with an effective 500 bps rate hike cumulatively and a 100 bps increase in CRR in a span of 20 months since February 2010. The effective tightening has been of 500 basis points as liquidity in the system transited from surplus to deficit. This monetary policy response has been calibrated on the basis of India specific growth-inflation dynamics in the broader context of persistent global uncertainty. Monetary transmission has helped raise deposit and lending rates, correct the mismatch between deposit and credit growth and dampen aggregate demand. Monetary Measures The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been increased by 25 basis points, from 8.25 per cent to 8.5 per cent with immediate effect. As per the new operating procedure, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a 100 basis point spread below the repo rate, automatically adjusts to 7.5 per cent. The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, gets recalibrated t0 9.5 per cent. The Bank Rate remains at 6.0 per cent. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 6 per cent of NDTL of scheduled banks. Guidance—The expected inflation outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run; notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November (December release), the likelihood of a rate action in the December mid-quarter review is relatively low. If the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be warranted. Developmental and Regulatory Polices Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate RBI has decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect; banks are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions: First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs.1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within this limit. E-UpDates November 2011 26 Surge Research Support
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    Second, for savingsbank deposits over Rs.1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However, there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit. Several up coming developmental and regulatory policy changes have been announced; these include: Financial Market Products— to issue the final guidelines on the cash settled 5-year and 2-year IRFs, including the final settlement price by end-December 2011. to make the guidelines on CDS effective by end-November 2011. to issue guidelines on short sale in government securities by end-December 2011. Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion— To provide enhanced banking services in Tier 2 centres, it is proposed to permit domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) to open branches in Tier 2 centres (with population 50,000 to 99,999 as per Census 2001) without the need to take permission from the Reserve Bank in each case, subject to reporting. As there is a need to increase the maximum permissible limit of individual housing loans that can be granted by the UCBs, as also to increase the maximum repayment period for such loans, it is proposed: to increase the individual housing loan limit from Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 30 lakh for Tier I UCBs and from Rs. 50 lakh to Rs. 70 lakh for Tier II UCBs, subject to extant prudential exposure limits; and to enhance the maximum repayment period of housing loans from the present period of 15 years to 20 years. It was announced in the Annual Monetary Policy Statement that the RBI would adhere to internationally agreed phase-in period (beginning January 1, 2013) for implementation of the Basel III framework; it is proposed to issue the draft guidelines for implementing the Basel III framework by end-December 2011. Non-Banking Financial Companies— It is proposed to introduce a new category of NBFCs called Non-Banking Financial Company – Micro Finance Institutions (NBFC-MFIs), the regulatory framework of which will be broadly based on the recommendations of the Malegam Committee. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued by end-November 2011. The full report is available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx Summary by Surge Research Support October 2011 E-UpDates November 2011 27 Surge Research Support
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    Prepared by the Please explore at www.ecofin-surge.co.in To subscribe visit www.ecofin-surge.co.in/kiosk.html or email [email protected] Rs. 2000.00 (USD 50)(12 Issues) E-UpDates November 2011 28 Surge Research Support