FERMA:
“A more volatile
world”
The political risk climate
• The political risk climate has probably changed more this
  year than at any time since the fall of Communism in the
  late 1980s
                             TWO FORUM
                             WORKSHOPS



             Providing timely guidance for risk managers




                                       Looking after staff who
                                        may get caught up in
           Political risks
                                         political unrest or
                                          other upheavals
Our members’ views
• So, how do our members see the current situation?

       “There is still a great deal of
    uncertainty over the governments
     that will eventually replace the
    old regimes, and companies have
     to strike a balance between the
    dangers and the opportunities for
               development”
                                           “Country risk has
                                         changed completely,
                                         and there is material
                     Michel Dennery       increase in counter
                       Deputy Chief           party risk”
                     Risk Officer, GDF
                           Suez
Who will be speaking at the Forum?
• Respected industry voices:
   Stephen Capon
   Head of Country                          Wolfgango
    & Credit Risk                            Piccoli,
    Management,                           Director Europe
   Political Risks &                     / Eurasia, Eurasia
     Credit, ACE                              Group
   Global Markets


                        Jeff Dowling                          Mette Bonde
                         ACE Product                          FLSmidth Travel
                        Head Accident                            Security
                       and Corporate &                           Manager
                         Major Risks
What will be discussed at the Forum?
• A number of topical questions will be addressed, for
  instance:
      How the insurance market assesses political and
      economic risks for international business

      To what extent does China remain a reliable
      source of growth for global business


      Will the Eurozone remain intact?
Changing political environment
• Stephen Capon, Head of Country & Credit Risk
  Management, Political Risks & Credit, ACE Global
  Markets' view:
                                     Increased
                                   discussion of
    What is                         credit risks
   the main
                                     Need to
    effect?                         distinguish
                                     between



                                                     SHORT-TERM
                 LONG-TERM RISKS                       TACTICAL
                                                   CONSIDERATIONS
Impact of a changing political environment

       Generational change has yet to take
       place in some major Middle Eastern
                    countries

        Stephen Capon                          “When it does, there are
                                             likely to be knock-on effects
 Head of Country & Credit Risk
 Management, Political Risks &                   in the whole region”
  Credit, ACE Global Markets


                                 “Picking the way through
                                 that is one of the biggest
                                   long term challenges”
Assessing the risk of business travellers and
foreign based staff
• Jeff Dowling, ACE Product Head Accident and Health
  Corporate & Major’s view:

                REQUIRES DELICATE ASSESSMENT


                          CONSIDER THE
                           SITUATION




                                    SIT TIGHT AND
                BETTER TO MOVE
                                      KEEP THEIR
                    PEOPLE
                                    HEADS DOWN
Case study: evacuation
• Mette Bond, FLSmidth’s Travel Security Manager will
  discuss the decision to evacuate the company’s
  employees from Egypt because of political turmoil:

                                             THE BENEFITS OF
                     WHY THE
                   DECISION WAS              HAVING A TRAVEL
                      MADE
                                             SECURITY SYSTEM
                                                 IN PLACE

      CHALLENGES
        FACED



                          LESSONS FROM THE
                               EVENT
Business travel risk

                            “Business people are travelling to a
                            much wider range of territories than
                               ever before so they are more
                            exposed to flash points. It has been
                                    a very active year”

      JEFF DOWLING
     ACE Product Head
 Accident and Corporate &
        Major Risks
The cost of adequate protection
• There are often opportunities for business in less settled
  environments, so accident and health insurance policies for
  multinational businesses have to cover the exposure that
  company travellers face in these places, such as civil unrest

                                                   HIGHER
                                                  ACCIDENT
           INCREASED EXPOSURE                    AND HEALTH
                                                 INSURANCE
                                                   POLICIES


• Political violence can occur in developed as well as emerging
  markets, considering the Madrid train bomb in 2004 and
  attacks in London the following year.
FERMA Risk Management
     Forum 2011

  Stockholm Waterfront
     Congress Center
    2-5 October 2011
                             www.ferma-forum.eu
 For more details of these
                             @FERMAFORUM2011
and other workshops at the
        Forum, see
                              “FERMA Risk Talk”
    http://www.ferma-
      forum.eu/site/-
       Programme-
     Committee,1978

FERMA - A more volatile world

  • 1.
  • 2.
    The political riskclimate • The political risk climate has probably changed more this year than at any time since the fall of Communism in the late 1980s TWO FORUM WORKSHOPS Providing timely guidance for risk managers Looking after staff who may get caught up in Political risks political unrest or other upheavals
  • 3.
    Our members’ views •So, how do our members see the current situation? “There is still a great deal of uncertainty over the governments that will eventually replace the old regimes, and companies have to strike a balance between the dangers and the opportunities for development” “Country risk has changed completely, and there is material Michel Dennery increase in counter Deputy Chief party risk” Risk Officer, GDF Suez
  • 4.
    Who will bespeaking at the Forum? • Respected industry voices: Stephen Capon Head of Country Wolfgango & Credit Risk Piccoli, Management, Director Europe Political Risks & / Eurasia, Eurasia Credit, ACE Group Global Markets Jeff Dowling Mette Bonde ACE Product FLSmidth Travel Head Accident Security and Corporate & Manager Major Risks
  • 5.
    What will bediscussed at the Forum? • A number of topical questions will be addressed, for instance: How the insurance market assesses political and economic risks for international business To what extent does China remain a reliable source of growth for global business Will the Eurozone remain intact?
  • 6.
    Changing political environment •Stephen Capon, Head of Country & Credit Risk Management, Political Risks & Credit, ACE Global Markets' view: Increased discussion of What is credit risks the main Need to effect? distinguish between SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM RISKS TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS
  • 7.
    Impact of achanging political environment Generational change has yet to take place in some major Middle Eastern countries Stephen Capon “When it does, there are likely to be knock-on effects Head of Country & Credit Risk Management, Political Risks & in the whole region” Credit, ACE Global Markets “Picking the way through that is one of the biggest long term challenges”
  • 8.
    Assessing the riskof business travellers and foreign based staff • Jeff Dowling, ACE Product Head Accident and Health Corporate & Major’s view: REQUIRES DELICATE ASSESSMENT CONSIDER THE SITUATION SIT TIGHT AND BETTER TO MOVE KEEP THEIR PEOPLE HEADS DOWN
  • 9.
    Case study: evacuation •Mette Bond, FLSmidth’s Travel Security Manager will discuss the decision to evacuate the company’s employees from Egypt because of political turmoil: THE BENEFITS OF WHY THE DECISION WAS HAVING A TRAVEL MADE SECURITY SYSTEM IN PLACE CHALLENGES FACED LESSONS FROM THE EVENT
  • 10.
    Business travel risk “Business people are travelling to a much wider range of territories than ever before so they are more exposed to flash points. It has been a very active year” JEFF DOWLING ACE Product Head Accident and Corporate & Major Risks
  • 11.
    The cost ofadequate protection • There are often opportunities for business in less settled environments, so accident and health insurance policies for multinational businesses have to cover the exposure that company travellers face in these places, such as civil unrest HIGHER ACCIDENT INCREASED EXPOSURE AND HEALTH INSURANCE POLICIES • Political violence can occur in developed as well as emerging markets, considering the Madrid train bomb in 2004 and attacks in London the following year.
  • 12.
    FERMA Risk Management Forum 2011 Stockholm Waterfront Congress Center 2-5 October 2011 www.ferma-forum.eu For more details of these @FERMAFORUM2011 and other workshops at the Forum, see “FERMA Risk Talk” http://www.ferma- forum.eu/site/- Programme- Committee,1978