Few thoughts about Future of Blockchain
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The document discusses the future of blockchain analysis using the Emerging Technology Analysis (ETAC) framework, highlighting its advantages in trust establishment, security, and cost-effectiveness over current methods. However, it also addresses challenges like limited scalability, privacy concerns, storage issues, and the absence of regulatory oversight which complicate certain use cases. A detailed analysis is available in the author's recent paper on blockchain's status and future directions.
Few thoughts about Future of Blockchain
- 1. Srinath Perera, Ph.D. VP Research WSO2, Apache Member, ( [email protected]) @srinath_perera Few thoughts about Future of Blockchain
- 2. Analysis based on ETAC !2 This is analysis of blockchain, based on the Emerging Technology Analysis (ETAC) framework
- 3. Impact? • Replace current alternatives to trust that are time-consuming, expensive, and weaker (e.g. intermediaries and government inspections.) • It is faster, often establishing trust within a second. • It is much more secure, guarded by cryptography algorithms and census data. • The resulting system is cheaper and more agile. !3
- 4. Blockchain is many Use Cases !4
- 6. Challenges • Limited scalability and latency • about 8 minutes and about 2 to 3 transactions per second. • Most use cases are not feasible under these limits. • Private blockchain have faster algorithms although they provide lesser guarantees. • Limited privacy. • Blockchain only provides pseudo anonymizations. • However, by analyzing the transaction graph and other related information, it is often possible to link users to transactions. • Once one transaction is linked to a user, all his transactions become known. • Storage constraints. • each node must store the full history of the blockchain. This forestalls lightweight nodes, such as IoT devices • As time passes, the history becomes larger aggravating the problem. !6
- 7. Risks •Irrevocability. • appeal is not possible • Some use cases, this can be handled with undo transaction, but some others (e.g. land registry) mistake is not reversible without the current owner complying •Regulator Absence. • A regulator plays a key role in some use cases. • Although not popular, regulators play a crucial role in many systems (e.g. avoid fraud and periamid schemes. • With Blockchain-based systems it is impossible or expensive to fill the missing regulator’s role. •Misunderstood Side Effects. • impact beyond CS •Unclear Regulatory Responses. !7
- 8. Feasibility of Use case Categories !8
- 9. Read the paper • A detailed analysis is in our recently published paper, “A use case centric survey of Blockchain: status quo and future directions”. !9
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