EFMD	
  |	
  Rome	
  |	
  9	
  March	
  2015	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  |	
  The	
  World	
  in	
  2025	
  
Looking	
  Forwards	
  
OrganisaAons	
  increasingly	
  want	
  to	
  idenAfy	
  and	
  understand	
  
	
  both	
  the	
  anAcipated	
  and	
  unexpected	
  changes	
  	
  
so	
  that	
  they	
  can	
  be	
  beHer	
  prepared	
  for	
  the	
  future.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  	
  
that	
  accesses	
  mulAple	
  views	
  of	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  	
  
so	
  all	
  can	
  be	
  beHer	
  informed	
  and	
  sAmulate	
  innovaAon.	
  
FA	
  1.0	
  Top	
  Insights	
  for	
  2020	
  
From	
  the	
  2010	
  program,	
  52	
  key	
  insights	
  on	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  	
  
were	
  shared	
  widely	
  via	
  books,	
  cards	
  and	
  online	
  and	
  have	
  been	
  
	
  extensively	
  used	
  by	
  organisaAons	
  around	
  the	
  world.	
  
Dynamic	
  Pricing	
  
Pervasive	
  smart	
  meters	
  and	
  ubiquitous	
  tracking	
  services	
  	
  
create	
  plaOorms	
  for	
  the	
  dynamic	
  pricing	
  of	
  	
  
resources,	
  access	
  and	
  travel	
  to	
  manage	
  demand.	
  
Global	
  Pandemics	
  
We	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  see	
  2	
  to	
  3	
  major	
  pandemics	
  start	
  in	
  	
  
regions	
  with	
  limited	
  public	
  healthcare	
  and	
  rapidly	
  	
  
spread	
  globally	
  and	
  so	
  demand	
  fast	
  response.	
  
Cocktail	
  IdenDDes	
  
The	
  need	
  to	
  differenAate	
  between	
  real	
  and	
  virtual	
  
	
  disappears	
  -­‐	
  who	
  you	
  are	
  ceases	
  to	
  use	
  a	
  singular	
  idenAty	
  	
  
as	
  we	
  manage	
  mulAple	
  idenAty	
  porOolios.	
  
Intelligent	
  Highways	
  
Mesh	
  networks	
  and	
  ubiquitous	
  mobile	
  connecAons	
  	
  
deliver	
  automated	
  highways	
  to	
  improve	
  safety,	
  	
  
increase	
  capacity	
  and	
  reduce	
  congesAon.	
  
Water	
  Management	
  	
  
Advanced	
  water	
  purificaAon,	
  irrigaAon	
  and	
  desalinaAon	
  	
  
technologies	
  are	
  used	
  to	
  help	
  communiAes	
  to	
  
manage	
  the	
  rising	
  supply	
  /	
  demand	
  imbalance.	
  
Mega	
  City	
  States	
  
Increasing	
  compeAAon	
  between	
  ciAes	
  over-­‐rides	
  naAonal	
  	
  
prioriAes	
  as	
  mayors	
  lead	
  bold	
  iniAaAves	
  to	
  place	
  their	
  	
  
ciAes	
  at	
  the	
  forefront	
  of	
  the	
  global	
  stage.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  Topics	
  
The	
  second	
  version	
  of	
  the	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  program	
  is	
  taking	
  place	
  	
  
during	
  2015	
  and	
  will	
  address	
  20+	
  topics	
  via	
  100	
  events	
  in	
  
	
  50	
  countries	
  with	
  around	
  20	
  to	
  25	
  core	
  hosts.	
  
Ageing	
  
CiDes	
  
Company	
  
ConnecDvity	
  
Data	
  
EducaDon	
  
Energy	
  
Food	
  
Government	
  
Health	
  
Learning	
  
Loyalty	
  
Payments	
  
Privacy	
  
Resources	
  
Transport	
  
Travel	
  
Water	
  
Wealth	
  
Work	
  
The	
  Process	
  
20	
  iniAal	
  perspecAves	
  on	
  the	
  future	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  	
  
discussions	
  taking	
  place	
  across	
  5	
  conAnents	
  from	
  Feb	
  to	
  July	
  2015.	
  	
  
These	
  are	
  iniAal	
  views	
  to	
  be	
  shared,	
  challenged	
  and	
  enhanced.	
  	
  
IniAal	
  
PerspecAves	
  
Q4	
  2014	
  
Global	
  
Discussions	
  
Q1/2	
  2015	
  
Insight	
  
Synthesis	
  
Q3	
  2015	
  
Sharing	
  	
  
Output	
  
Q4	
  2015	
  
Working	
  Longer	
  
	
  For	
  those	
  who	
  have	
  inadequate	
  reArement	
  savings,	
  the	
  most	
  obvious	
  	
  
soluAon	
  is	
  to	
  work	
  longer.	
  One	
  major	
  potenAal	
  barrier,	
  however,	
  	
  
is	
  that	
  employers	
  remain	
  ambivalent	
  about	
  older	
  workers.	
  	
  
FloaDng	
  CiDes?	
  
Climate	
  change	
  poses	
  a	
  worrying	
  challenge	
  for	
  ciAes.	
  50%	
  of	
  ciAes	
  are	
  dealing	
  
with	
  its	
  effects,	
  and	
  nearly	
  all	
  are	
  at	
  risk.	
  Over	
  90%	
  of	
  all	
  urban	
  areas	
  are	
  
coastal,	
  pu_ng	
  most	
  ciAes	
  on	
  earth	
  at	
  risk	
  of	
  flooding.	
  	
  
Less	
  Carbon	
  -­‐	
  More	
  Energy	
  
The	
  climate	
  change	
  debate	
  is	
  serious	
  but	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  broader;	
  	
  
focused	
  not	
  solely	
  on	
  reducing	
  CO2	
  emissions,	
  but	
  on	
  developing	
  	
  
a	
  low	
  carbon,	
  high-­‐energy	
  future	
  to	
  ensure	
  prosperity	
  for	
  all.	
  	
  
Reducing	
  Food	
  Waste	
  
Postharvest	
  losses	
  of	
  plant	
  foods	
  can	
  be	
  substanAal	
  in	
  developing	
  countries	
  
and	
  amount	
  to	
  30-­‐50%	
  of	
  producAon.	
  In	
  developed	
  countries	
  we	
  throw	
  away	
  a	
  
similar	
  proporAon.	
  The	
  combined	
  loss	
  would	
  feed	
  about	
  3	
  billion	
  people.	
  
Wider	
  Impact	
  of	
  Frugal	
  InnovaDon	
  
The	
  approach	
  to	
  healthcare	
  challenges	
  developed	
  in	
  India	
  has	
  delivered	
  proven	
  
design	
  soluAons	
  for	
  low-­‐income	
  populaAons.	
  Applying	
  the	
  principles	
  to	
  higher	
  
income	
  economies	
  has	
  the	
  potenAal	
  to	
  deliver	
  even	
  greater	
  efficiency	
  benefits.	
  
Value	
  of	
  Data	
  
There	
  is	
  undoubtedly	
  a	
  huge	
  economic	
  incenAve	
  to	
  generate	
  and	
  collect	
  data	
  
from	
  whatever	
  sources	
  it	
  becomes	
  available.	
  As	
  more	
  data	
  from	
  more	
  things	
  
becomes	
  available,	
  we	
  can	
  expect	
  to	
  see	
  a	
  data	
  “land	
  grab”	
  by	
  organisaAons.	
  	
  
Transport	
  and	
  Society	
  
Transport	
  systems	
  need	
  to	
  contribute	
  to	
  supporAng	
  and	
  improving	
  	
  
society	
  rather	
  than	
  only	
  serving	
  it	
  and	
  risking	
  unintended,	
  	
  
unanAcipated	
  and	
  unwelcome	
  consequences.	
  
Real	
  Cost	
  of	
  Water	
  
	
  Users	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  have	
  to	
  pay	
  for	
  the	
  real	
  cost	
  of	
  infrastructure.	
  One	
  short-­‐
term	
  opAon	
  is	
  the	
  financial	
  recycling	
  of	
  assets	
  and	
  capital.	
  However,	
  in	
  the	
  
longer-­‐term	
  we	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  pay	
  the	
  true	
  value	
  for	
  key	
  resources.	
  
Self-­‐Organised	
  Learning	
  
By	
  removing	
  adult	
  restricAons	
  on	
  educaAon	
  and	
  providing	
  children	
  	
  
with	
  Internet	
  access	
  and	
  on-­‐line	
  support	
  and	
  encouragement,	
  	
  
children	
  are	
  able	
  to	
  self-­‐organise	
  and	
  learn.	
  
Post	
  Modern	
  Workplaces	
  
We	
  are	
  on	
  the	
  cusp	
  of	
  a	
  transiAon	
  to	
  a	
  world	
  where	
  half	
  the	
  populaAons	
  	
  
of	
  Europe	
  and	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  subscribe	
  to	
  post-­‐modern	
  values	
  of	
  	
  
autonomy	
  and	
  diversity.	
  The	
  workplace	
  will	
  not	
  escape	
  this	
  trend.	
  	
  
Inequality	
  On	
  The	
  Agenda	
  
Inequality	
  has	
  become	
  a	
  concern	
  not	
  just	
  for	
  developing	
  countries	
  but	
  also	
  for	
  
those	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  and	
  the	
  Euro	
  Zone:	
  56%	
  of	
  people	
  living	
  in	
  rich	
  countries	
  
believe	
  the	
  most	
  pressing	
  problem	
  of	
  the	
  economy	
  is	
  inequality.	
  
Get	
  Involved	
  
Join	
  in	
  the	
  global	
  discussion:	
  ParAcipate	
  in	
  /	
  host	
  workshops	
  and	
  	
  
share	
  your	
  views	
  online.	
  Add	
  alternaAve	
  perspecAves	
  into	
  the	
  mix	
  	
  
to	
  create	
  a	
  deeper,	
  richer	
  and	
  global	
  view	
  of	
  the	
  World	
  in	
  2025	
  

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Future Agenda - The World in 2025 - EFMD - Rome 09 03 15

  • 1. EFMD  |  Rome  |  9  March  2015   Future  Agenda  2.0  |  The  World  in  2025  
  • 2. Looking  Forwards   OrganisaAons  increasingly  want  to  idenAfy  and  understand    both  the  anAcipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beHer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  • 3. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mulAple  views  of  the  next  decade     so  all  can  be  beHer  informed  and  sAmulate  innovaAon.  
  • 4. FA  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  52  key  insights  on  the  next  decade     were  shared  widely  via  books,  cards  and  online  and  have  been    extensively  used  by  organisaAons  around  the  world.  
  • 5. Dynamic  Pricing   Pervasive  smart  meters  and  ubiquitous  tracking  services     create  plaOorms  for  the  dynamic  pricing  of     resources,  access  and  travel  to  manage  demand.  
  • 6. Global  Pandemics   We  are  likely  to  see  2  to  3  major  pandemics  start  in     regions  with  limited  public  healthcare  and  rapidly     spread  globally  and  so  demand  fast  response.  
  • 7. Cocktail  IdenDDes   The  need  to  differenAate  between  real  and  virtual    disappears  -­‐  who  you  are  ceases  to  use  a  singular  idenAty     as  we  manage  mulAple  idenAty  porOolios.  
  • 8. Intelligent  Highways   Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connecAons     deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,     increase  capacity  and  reduce  congesAon.  
  • 9. Water  Management     Advanced  water  purificaAon,  irrigaAon  and  desalinaAon     technologies  are  used  to  help  communiAes  to   manage  the  rising  supply  /  demand  imbalance.  
  • 10. Mega  City  States   Increasing  compeAAon  between  ciAes  over-­‐rides  naAonal     prioriAes  as  mayors  lead  bold  iniAaAves  to  place  their     ciAes  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage.  
  • 11. Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  second  version  of  the  Future  Agenda  program  is  taking  place     during  2015  and  will  address  20+  topics  via  100  events  in    50  countries  with  around  20  to  25  core  hosts.   Ageing   CiDes   Company   ConnecDvity   Data   EducaDon   Energy   Food   Government   Health   Learning   Loyalty   Payments   Privacy   Resources   Transport   Travel   Water   Wealth   Work  
  • 12. The  Process   20  iniAal  perspecAves  on  the  future  kicked  off  the  Future  Agenda     discussions  taking  place  across  5  conAnents  from  Feb  to  July  2015.     These  are  iniAal  views  to  be  shared,  challenged  and  enhanced.     IniAal   PerspecAves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  • 13. Working  Longer    For  those  who  have  inadequate  reArement  savings,  the  most  obvious     soluAon  is  to  work  longer.  One  major  potenAal  barrier,  however,     is  that  employers  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.    
  • 14. FloaDng  CiDes?   Climate  change  poses  a  worrying  challenge  for  ciAes.  50%  of  ciAes  are  dealing   with  its  effects,  and  nearly  all  are  at  risk.  Over  90%  of  all  urban  areas  are   coastal,  pu_ng  most  ciAes  on  earth  at  risk  of  flooding.    
  • 15. Less  Carbon  -­‐  More  Energy   The  climate  change  debate  is  serious  but  needs  to  be  broader;     focused  not  solely  on  reducing  CO2  emissions,  but  on  developing     a  low  carbon,  high-­‐energy  future  to  ensure  prosperity  for  all.    
  • 16. Reducing  Food  Waste   Postharvest  losses  of  plant  foods  can  be  substanAal  in  developing  countries   and  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of  producAon.  In  developed  countries  we  throw  away  a   similar  proporAon.  The  combined  loss  would  feed  about  3  billion  people.  
  • 17. Wider  Impact  of  Frugal  InnovaDon   The  approach  to  healthcare  challenges  developed  in  India  has  delivered  proven   design  soluAons  for  low-­‐income  populaAons.  Applying  the  principles  to  higher   income  economies  has  the  potenAal  to  deliver  even  greater  efficiency  benefits.  
  • 18. Value  of  Data   There  is  undoubtedly  a  huge  economic  incenAve  to  generate  and  collect  data   from  whatever  sources  it  becomes  available.  As  more  data  from  more  things   becomes  available,  we  can  expect  to  see  a  data  “land  grab”  by  organisaAons.    
  • 19. Transport  and  Society   Transport  systems  need  to  contribute  to  supporAng  and  improving     society  rather  than  only  serving  it  and  risking  unintended,     unanAcipated  and  unwelcome  consequences.  
  • 20. Real  Cost  of  Water    Users  are  likely  to  have  to  pay  for  the  real  cost  of  infrastructure.  One  short-­‐ term  opAon  is  the  financial  recycling  of  assets  and  capital.  However,  in  the   longer-­‐term  we  will  have  to  pay  the  true  value  for  key  resources.  
  • 21. Self-­‐Organised  Learning   By  removing  adult  restricAons  on  educaAon  and  providing  children     with  Internet  access  and  on-­‐line  support  and  encouragement,     children  are  able  to  self-­‐organise  and  learn.  
  • 22. Post  Modern  Workplaces   We  are  on  the  cusp  of  a  transiAon  to  a  world  where  half  the  populaAons     of  Europe  and  the  United  States  subscribe  to  post-­‐modern  values  of     autonomy  and  diversity.  The  workplace  will  not  escape  this  trend.    
  • 23. Inequality  On  The  Agenda   Inequality  has  become  a  concern  not  just  for  developing  countries  but  also  for   those  in  the  US  and  the  Euro  Zone:  56%  of  people  living  in  rich  countries   believe  the  most  pressing  problem  of  the  economy  is  inequality.  
  • 24. Get  Involved   Join  in  the  global  discussion:  ParAcipate  in  /  host  workshops  and     share  your  views  online.  Add  alternaAve  perspecAves  into  the  mix     to  create  a  deeper,  richer  and  global  view  of  the  World  in  2025