Future of Bitcoin
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The document discusses various possible futures for Bitcoin, ranging from failure to widespread global adoption. It outlines challenges like powerful opponents in the banking and government sectors that could launch attacks on the Bitcoin protocol or price. However, it also presents potential pathways to success, such as a stable price leading to Bitcoin becoming a standard part of the global economy. Ultimately, the document considers a variety of long-term scenarios for Bitcoin through the next century as technology and adoption changes.
Future of Bitcoin
- 3. 4 years into the adoption curve X1000 price increase since 2010 Services Legal / regulatory
- 7. Future predictions affect the present Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped Currency
- 8. Bitcoin fails Bitcoin stagnates Bitcoin wins
- 10. Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies Payment processors Banks Governments ? Various attacks are possible Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%) Price manipulation Regulatory attacks Hacking
- 11. People lose faith in Bitcoin A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0 The way down might take a while, like the way up
- 13. Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level It becomes some small percent of the world economy Used for some purposes, mostly on the internet Growth in user base and monetary value halts
- 14. Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is using it. Bitcoin users can still: Hold their own money Send it to whoever they want Use advanced features People move in and out of the Bitcoin economy at will
- 16. More and more people see the benefits They trade Fiat money for BTC Bitcoin is a major part of the world economy
- 17. Banks and payment processors cooperate instead of compete Insured BTC deposits Government issues Fiat backed by BTC (Gold Standard 2.0)
- 18. Bitcoin becomes boring Several great wallets to choose from Everything JustWorks
- 19. Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank Distributed exchanges Lower exchange fees Managed wallets
- 20. Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency Ripple is also a competitor Maybe something else entirely?
- 21. Block reward drops to zero around 2050 Transaction fee structure change Hash function upgraded (Quantum resistant) Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi) Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)
- 23. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an- estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n- users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1 ×pan=all&scale=1&address=