Future Public Sector Consumers

How public sector consumers will change 50 years ahead MATT KEPPLE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Methodology: Forces of change Changes in consumer demand Spectrum of future scenarios How public services will evolve Conclusions

Population of the United Kingdom Doubling in size of the retirement age population; from 10 to 20 million over 50 years Only 13% increase in size of working age population Projections: Source: Office of National Statistics The economy can no longer afford a ‘business as usual’ approach to healthcare To reduce cost of healthcare for the 65 and above population, technological advances will reduce the prevalence of health-debilitating diseases among older generations. Impact on pensions as more people live longer. 79 million 62 million TOTAL 8 million 3 million Aged 80 and above 12 million 7 million Aged 65-80 37 million 33 million Aged 25-65 22 million 19 million Aged 25 and under 5O YEARS AHEAD PRESENT DAY

Global GDPs Economic output of Britain small compared to that of other countries Projections: Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2006: relative to US = 100 * The Future of Services to the Public report, CIPFA Can no longer afford a ‘business as usual’ approach to education. Improvements in education and training required in order to enable Britain to compete on global stage. 143 76 China 140 78 India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia 39 25 Brazil, Russia 61 69 EU (including UK & Turkey 100 100 US GDP 2050 (PPP) GDP 2005 Country/Region*

Digital products and services Accountability: Information on everything is easily and widely available. Personalisation: Services know what I want and how I want it. Projections: PRESENT DAY 50 YEARS AHEAD More convergence of technology onto single devices Technology becomes better, cheaper and more widely available Improved data portability

Politics Homogenisation of standards across EU member states. setting common safety standards and trade rules Projections: Influx of EU laws and initiatives which raise quality of life and long-term economic output. More emphasis on Britain being a tolerant society which respects other cultures and individualities. Better more affordable technology Negotiation and policies on agriculture, transport, vocational training, youth, education and culture. Common action on trade, social, industrial, research and technological development. Pooled resources More Brits living abroad More EU citizens living in Britain Free movement of goods, people, services and capital. Migration More decisions about life in the UK to be made in Europe. EU Lisbon Treaty: Unanimity will still be required in the areas of tax, foreign policy, defence and social security. EU Lisbon Treaty 50 YEARS AHEAD PRESENT DAY

Standard versus Nice-to-Have services Health Education Welfare National Security Law & Order Infrastructure Elections Impact on consumer demand: Challenging conventional institutionalised approaches: E.g. Why is Employment the only solution to Unemployment? Alternative approaches to public services (domestic and abroad) Personal Allowances for public services Equality versus Individuality: Different lifestyles requiring different intensities of public services debate around: Consumer Who is best equipped to deliver public services Will catalyse What I should and shouldn’t be taxed on Economic hardship Rising unemployment Growing population Ageing population Advancements in information technology

Together we will need to make an Attitudinal shift Where this leads: forming a new consensus on what it costs us individually and corporately to live the lives we desire, in Britain.

Enabling people to experience personalised superior public services. Giving people control over their taxes. Harnessing the latent social capital of the nation. Desire for a more enjoyable experience of life in Great Britain: Tailored attentive education  higher economic output of British citizens. Longer healthier lives. Open calls for innovative systems to improve Welfare. Accountability restoring faith in the electoral systems… Communal individuality A new role for Government: to create a dialogue around and an organising system successful

3 building blocks emerge: PARTICIPATIVE CITIZENS PARTICIPATIVE SERVICE USERS PARTICIPATIVE COMPANIES Consumers dictating which services they use and how they use them The Law interacts with you by removing the ability to commit a crime. E.g. technology which prevents you from starting your car unless you pass a breathalyser test and have an up-to-date car insurance and road tax certificate. Consumers having more say in how their town and country is run Finding ways in addition to Taxes of enabling people to contribute towards the economy (society) Harnessing the professionalism and innovation within the private sector Replacing a profit-maximising with minimal regulation model with one that encourages socially entrepreneurial behaviours Research that volunteering contributes to happiness.

PARTICIPATIVE CITIZENS 50 YEARS AHEAD SPICE community time credits – people trade in hours spent helping the community for leisure rewards such as free cinema tickets Harnessing social capital: Unemployed people can invest their time into the economy and be recognised for their contribution. New models of volunteering and civic participation PRESENT DAY Community engagement as the norm: People empowered to be ‘good citizens’ who use their time to help people around them. Tax reductions: Voluntary use of skills and time can reduce the strain on public services and the public purse, thus lowering taxes. Less Money Transactions… More Time & Value Transactions

50 YEARS AHEAD Online banking gives people freedom to move their money around as they please. Control: I control the details. PARTICIPATIVE SERVICE USERS PRESENT DAY Autonomy: Now I can do anything. I want to be in control of my own health, education, etc. Rising expectations: Consumers have higher expectations because they know that more and better is possible.

PARTICIPATIVE COMPANIES Institutional social entrepreneurship: Companies creating consumer-focused solutions to social problems in order to compete in the public services marketplace Trusted brands: Giving national private sector companies the opportunity to deliver their brand of public services 50 YEARS AHEAD MARMITE collaboration with the Department for Children Schools and Families to promote Reading for Life 4 of the UK’s top social enterprises as identified by The Cabinet Office PRESENT DAY

4 of many future scenarios: ‘ Steady as she goes’ * ageing population. globally competitive British economy. technological transformation of the workplace and public service delivery. citizens demanding higher quality service underlying culture of fear over personal health and security. ‘ Stormy weather’ * a lost decade following the recession. social tension. fears over data security in the public sector. ‘ World Markets’ ** aspiration toward personal independence, material wealth and mobility to the exclusion of wider social goals. provision of goods and services is privatised . High economic growth. ‘ Into the sunset’ * strong economic growth. progress in education and training. society much healthier. increased confidence in delivery of public services. * Drivers of Public Change report, Trajectory ** The Future of Services to the Public, CIPFA

Key insight: We need future-proofed services which are designed to be continually responsive to changing societal needs and political fashions How this will manifest itself: Instead of recreating services; we create a marketplace . Participative Citizens Participative Service Users Participative Companies What this looks like: A spectrum of future scenarios P.E.S.T Forces

Multiple providers: Different national brands of GP healthcare, different national brands of education. People choose what they want. Providers innovate to meet evolving service user needs. Compare the market: Easy to see ratings, comments and performance statistics of various service providers. Data portability: Service Users’ public services data can be easily shared between providers. Personal budgets: Everyone has an allowance which they can spend on healthcare, education and other services per year. People can ‘top-up’ if their service usage needs to exceed their allowance. Critical healthcare an exception. The public services landscape: The public services marketplace Accreditation: Increased government regulation to ensure quality standard service levels are met. But importantly, your Tesco Clubcard purchase data will not be shared with the health services unless you permit it Ethics: With data comes responsibility: the line between transparency and personal privacy. ‘ Citizen-led’ not ‘production-led’ delivery: More choice means more wastage, and the prices of services delivered by private suppliers will increase so that the firms do not absorb the costs of wastage.  SEE APPENDIX ON SWEDISH EDUCATION MODEL

Driver: Technology Now it is less Important to learn a foreign language in the classic sense of mastering the vocabulary and grammar Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: Some parents and schools keener for their children to understand the culture, customs and history of a foreign nation FOREIGN LANGUAGE EDUCATION: This is what financial services consultants ask clients to give ownership over the plan developed. E.g. “How much would you like to live on when you retire?”

A school in the education marketplace CRB-checked freelance part-time teacher/other professional hybrids who teach a certain cohort of students a particular curriculum within a given subject Schools become Places where education is managed as opposed to being institutions where a one-size-fits-all curriculum is taught. Other considerations Would public service staff need to speak English? Cost-savings achieved by removing the need to pay for translation of materials into multiple languages and dialects

Driver: Participative Service Users “ I want control” Affordable good quality teaching is no longer confined to a physical school classroom environment Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: Some parents ‘home-school’ their children without doing it themselves, opting for online learning by world-class teachers instead. REAL-TIME EDUCATION ONLINE: Homeschooling is indeed on the rise Due to disillusionment in state schools – The Telegraph Article “ I prefer to make those [educational] choices myself. Not because I think I know ‘better’ than all those professional educators, but I do think I know my own children best, and consequently which programs and methods would benefit them. ”

CRB-checked freelance part-time teacher/other professional hybrids who teach a certain cohort of students a particular curriculum within a given subject Schools become centres for lifelong learning where education for multiple subjects can be located and available 24-7 Pupils still attend physical school buildings because they value the human interaction of being around people Virtual schools where people can learn remotely via webcam Schools become brokers for good quality teachers who are available online as well as offline for pupils on a flexible basis The education marketplace

Driver: Participative Service Users “ I want control” Some people deliberately adopt lifestyles which have a negative impact on their health. Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: Some people want to be the NHS to prioritise them based on the efforts they have made to look after their bodies GETTING MEDICAL TREATMENT:

Treatment in the healthcare marketplace Personal budgets: Personal allowances of ‘credits’ to spend per year E.g. If you have a skiing accident and you are obese, you will need to top-up (i.e. pay more) in order to get treatment for both. Prioritisation of patients becomes Based on the degree to which patients have willingly exposed themselves to health risks.

Driver: Participative Service Users: “I want control” A shift from the NHS controlling my health to me being in control of my own health Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: People expect all their interactions with the NHS to be optimised for their personal health trajectory (i.e. eating habits, amount of exercise, family medical history) PUBLIC HEALTH:

The healthcare marketplace Public health messaging is tailored to people’s individual health ambitions and personal situations. Healthcare services become Health Consultancies which empower individuals to adjust their lifestyles to achieve their health ambitions. Healthcare services moving away from being one-purpose ‘body repair shops’ that people only engage in when ill or injured. The NHS has real-time data on the health state of the nation and can make purchasing decisions, e.g. on pharmaceuticals, with greater accuracy Consumers want healthcare to focus on extending their wellness

Personalisation: Public health messaging is tailored to people’s individual health ambitions and personal situations. Interactive: GPs’ calendars can be viewed online and appointments booked by patients Compare: Patients can rank GPs, nurses, surgeons and operations. Accountability: Simple statistics on numbers of preventable deaths are visible Technology: Digital wristbands update an online health centre with your cholesterol and blood pressure. The wristband warns you when you are at risk of having a heart attack. Personal budgets: ‘ an oyster card of health’ Personal allowances of ‘credits’ to spend per year Fairness: Queue-jump or tax benefits for positive health behaviours E.g. as tracked on your ‘health oyster card’ in association with Tesco Clubcard Level playing field: Genetic fingerprinting to ensure individuals can be given a realistic amount of healthcare credits that takes into account the diseases they are predisposed to have. The healthcare marketplace A similar walk-a-couple-of-stops scheme is in place in Manchester

Driver: Participative Companies Market-leading brands have proven their ability to innovate and meet consumer expectations. Meanwhile state-managed services receive complaints Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: People want: services from professional brands they can trust high quality service to services they would be happy to pay for PROVIDERS OF PUBLIC SERVICES: Chain of GP practices /networks

Choice in the public services marketplace Follow the iPhone example: “ YouTube on your phone” (i.e. giving people a best in class service from the most trusted brand), “ Make your phone as unique as you” (i.e. giving people the choice of choosing the service provider best suited to them) Use of public services becomes An enjoyable experience.

Driver: Participative Citizens Realisation that the tax system forces us pay our local council to do tasks which we could perform better and cheaper ourselves Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: Some people want to reduce the amount they pay in council tax by building a better society themselves COUNCIL TAX:

Local councils in the public services marketplace Citizens are regarded as auxiliary delivery agents of public services. Contributions of (skilled) time can be measured and assigned a financial value. This value can be discounted from their council tax bill. Council tax becomes Payable in time or money. This requires a different regulatory infrastructure, one that can make sure that the ‘auxiliary delivery agents’ deliver to a high standard – safely and achieving outcomes.

Drivers: Technology & Participative Citizens Transparency: Technology enables citizens and local councils to see how effective their council is. Public service pivot point: Change in consumer demand: Citizens can see the inefficiencies of councils first hand make suggestions, gain public support for their suggestions demand changes to operating procedures. MAKING COMPLAINTS:

Council elections in the public services marketplace Ideologies give way to ideas. Come election time the performance statistics of the incumbent party will be available for all to scrutinise. Challenging parties’ proposals will be more like business pitches detailing the operational measures (not ideological philosophies) that will improve quality of service. Council elections become Less about political ideologies and more about quality of service. The findings of the Audit Commission (mission to ‘protect the public purse’) becomes more digestible and relevant, e.g. in a www.comparethemarket.com fashion.

Partnership Citizens as auxiliary delivery agents of public services. Contributions of skills and time can be measured and assigned a financial value. This value can be discounted from their council tax bill. Accountability All tax payments can be itemised (VAT, Income Tax, Council Tax, Road Tax) and the expenditure traced. Connectivity Referenda can be conducted using your mobile phone/internet/TV/computer device The local councils marketplace Democratised Public Services People understand how public services are run financially  Public services become commodities People and companies suggest efficiencies or start their competing delivery services  Lower barriers to entry More efficient taxing: GPS-trackers in cars enable people only to be taxed for the journeys they travel as opposed to an estimation Which reduces car thefts, car insurance and police costs as stolen cars can now be easily tracked Narrowing the gap between private and public sector KPIs set in place to ensure that contributions of skills and time are valued accordingly Provides a mechanism for unemployed people to contribute to the economy

What this means Globally… Itemisation A more accurate way of charging foreign nationals for use of British public services on an itemised basis Roaming British citizens who travel overseas can pay a ‘Roaming Charge’ to have use of public services abroad As a global citizen you can use your public services allowance anywhere in the world Home is where the heart is  Home is where your data is: Download your lifestyle settings from ‘The Cloud’ and obtain the same standards in healthcare, education and other services as you had in your previous place of residence. As economies boom elsewhere, less foreign people will come to the UK for menial jobs. They will be coming to experience the way of life offered. Mobility.

these forces will change consumer demand SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGICAL 3 BUILDING BLOCKS EMERGE: PARTICIPATIVE CITIZENS PARTICIPATIVE SERVICE USERS PARTICIPATIVE COMPANIES Conclusions:

Conclusions: public services will adapt A new role for Government:

Other conclusions But as with the industrial revolution, people will find new vocations Government will be smaller A new role of government: including tighter regulation of public services to uphold quality standards Only delivery of key services is by government, e.g. Defence, policing Job losses within the civil service Everyone will know more about everyone and everything Citizens have better understanding of mechanics of local & national governance Public services know all they need to know about service users Greater accountability A desire for privacy: e.g. in healthcare, the NHS sharing people’s genetic fingerprints with their insurance companies Ethics: With data comes responsibility: the line between transparency and personal privacy.

Other conclusions Fairness I only pay for what I use (GPS car tax) Positive behaviours in health being rewarded with tax or queue-jump benefits No longer an ‘Everybody Gets Everything’ approach to public services; we cannot afford to continue delivering en-masse public services in this manner. Part paying taxes in the time and skills contributed to society Differing political interpretations of the public services marketplace Political parties likely to disagree on where to draw the line between standard and premium (i.e. available by top-up) usage of public services Usage of Public Services available to all Usage of Public Services only via Top-up Usage of Public Services available to all Usage of Public Services only via Top-up % of usage of public services

Technology will narrow the vector between the best and worst options More competitive market of public services More focus on cost and quality of services than political ideologies Technology aids accountability Calls for a move towards standardisation, one currency, one tax system, one pension system World rationalisation of brands Blurring of the line between public sector and private sector UK has a small relative-by-population-size voice and purchasing power within the global public services market Brands do not make services specific to the needs of the UK market Less brands delivering public services because the bigger brands just get bigger UK/Global Political Ideology & Public Spend Time 1900s 2059 PARTICIPATIVE COMPANIES Harnessing the professionalism and innovation within the private sector Replacing a profit-maximising with minimal regulation model with one that encourages socially entrepreneurial behaviours

Parents given vouchers they can redeem at any ‘free school’ outside the state school system of their choice. Swedish parents don't protest against school closures - they apply to open a rival school. the state school raises its game to compete with its new neighbours. Otherwise they will lose money if their pupil numbers fall. Telegraph Article Similar schemes implemented in The Netherlands (since early 1900s) and Hong Kong (launched 2007) APPENDIX: The Swedish education model

www.DataSF.org - is a San Fran initiative to make available city data to web & mobile application developers. Example applications include Crime Spotting - http://sanfrancisco.crimespotting.org/ Other applications http://datasf.org/showcase/ - showcases more of the applications http://www.fixmystreet.com/ Washington DC’s Apps for Democracy competition APPENDIX: Web & Mobile Applications harnessing civic data Crime Spotting application Historical distributions of votes

APPENDIX: Comments on the private sector Cross-border pricing Will prices of products be the same across national boundaries if currencies and national economies become homogenous? United Kingdom model of the EU Central power being at the centre with limited devolved powers at a country level (i.e. akin to Scottish, N.I. and Welsh powers versus UK parliament in London) Retail Embassies Buy products at the price they are in the embassy country Taxes on the product split between the host and embassy countries The private sector marketplace

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