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![LONG-TERM IMPACT
MID-TERM IMPACT
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
> Advancing Cultures of Innovation
> Rethinking How Institutions Work
> Redesigning Learning Spaces
> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches
> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning
> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs
[KEYTRENDS]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/futuresmethodseducause2016-161114101959/75/Futures-methods-for-higher-education-EDUCAUSE-2016-14-2048.jpg)
![SOLVABLE
DIFFICULT
WICKED
> Blending Formal + Informal Learning
> Improving Digital Literacy
> Competing Models of Education
> Personalizing Learning
> Balancing Our Connected +
Unconnected Lives
> Keeping Education Relevant
[SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/futuresmethodseducause2016-161114101959/75/Futures-methods-for-higher-education-EDUCAUSE-2016-16-2048.jpg)
![NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS
> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)
> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality
> Makerspaces
> Affective Computing
> Robotics
[DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/futuresmethodseducause2016-161114101959/75/Futures-methods-for-higher-education-EDUCAUSE-2016-17-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byBryan Alexander
Futures methods for higher education: EDUCAUSE 2016
This document outlines a workshop on assessing emerging technology and futures capacity for organizations. It discusses various futures studies methods like the Delphi method, environmental scanning, trend analysis, and scenario planning. These methods help identify potential technologies, trends, and challenges that could impact an organization in the near future. The workshop then discusses how to implement futures capacity at the organizational level through individual expertise, collaborative practices, and external resources.
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Futures methods for higher education: EDUCAUSE 2016
- 1. AssessingAssessing EmergingEmerging Technology andTechnology and FuturesCapacityFutures Capacity for Yourfor Your OrganizationOrganization EDUCAUSE 2016
- 2. Plan for theworkshopPlan for the workshop 1. Introductions 2. Delphi method 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization
- 4. Historical sketchHistorical sketch 1.Cold War: RAND and Shell 2. Growth of futures/futurology 3. Business, government
- 5. 2. Delphi method •Assemble experts • Structured queries • Reiterated assessments
- 7. Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports HigherEducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education MuseumsMuseums LibrariesLibraries European Union (K-12)European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed) Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksRegional/Sector Technology Outlooks Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia China / Scandinavia / Int’l SchoolsChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges www.nmc.org/horizon-project
- 8. 55 Editions55 Editions 75+Translations75+ Translations 14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake The NMC Horizon Project
- 11.
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- 14. LONG-TERM IMPACT MID-TERM IMPACT SHORT-TERMIMPACT > Advancing Cultures of Innovation > Rethinking How Institutions Work > Redesigning Learning Spaces > Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches > Growing Focus On Measuring Learning > Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs [KEYTRENDS]
- 15.
- 16. SOLVABLE DIFFICULT WICKED > Blending Formal+ Informal Learning > Improving Digital Literacy > Competing Models of Education > Personalizing Learning > Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives > Keeping Education Relevant [SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES]
- 17. NEAR-TERM: 1 YROR LESS MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS > Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) > Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning > Augmented + Virtual Reality > Makerspaces > Affective Computing > Robotics [DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]
- 18. On campus • Canyou use Horizon and others? • Can you build your own?
- 19. Horizon prompts exercise 1.Whichdevelopments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on education over the next five years? 2.What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology? 3.Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and
- 20. 3. Environmental scanning •Present-oriented, seekingseeds of future •Multiple, diverse sources •“So what?” Analysis
- 21.
- 22.
- 23. Key questions tostart on • What are your sources? • How do you share what you discover? • How does reflection shape your planning?
- 24. EXERCISE 1. Identify 2stories from past 3 months 2. 1 personal, 1 professional 3. Note source
- 25. 4. Trend analysis Onceyou have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?
- 26. 4. Trend analysis •What do they signal about a possible future? • What trends do they indicate? • How do they connect with your thinking? • How do they intersect?
- 27. EXERCISE Back to environmentalscan. Break out trends.
- 28.
- 29. AdvantagesAdvantages 1. Narratives compel 2.Creativity for everyone 3. Role playing 4. Can be very low cost
- 30. CostsCosts 1. Time consuming 2.Can be costly 3. May seem too touchy-feely, too speculative
- 31. How to use?Howto use? 1. Role playing 2. Simpler: how does your life change? 3. Group or individual/small group creation
- 32. Sample scenariosSample scenarios 1.Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance
- 33. Peak higher educationPeakhigher education Academia experiences a serious correction
- 34. The bubble burstThebubble burst http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
- 35. Grad programs checkedGradprograms checked
- 36. Perfect stormPerfect storm Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
- 37. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? Fewer, less crowded campuses Very international student body Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
- 38. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? Increased remedial programs College generally seen as job training
- 39. How does thisimpact learning?How does this impact learning? More alternatives: Maker movement expands More DIY learning, unschooling
- 40. Vocational techclasses are widespread in K-12 Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths Colleges have always been transnational
- 41. II:II: Health carenationHealth care nation Medical sector grows into leading US industry 45% of GDP
- 42. A new economyAnew economy Ageing population
- 43. A new economyAnew economy Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
- 44. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? More programs, more people, more tech Increased feminization of student body Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
- 45. Some tookpremed-themed classes in high school Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures Many already familiar with eldercare practices
- 46. III. Tutor me,SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri Tutoring software Commodit y and enterprise versions
- 47. How it happenedHowit happened Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science Commercial, governmental, academic projects Open education to draw upon
- 48. Higher education landscape: Two Cultures implementation divide Boom in CS, robotics departments Scholarship battles
- 49. Higher education landscape: Further adjunctification F2f undergrad, grad enrollments drop Math Emporium model
- 50. Expanded studyhalls in high school Beloved tutors carried to college, life Value humans for eccentricity, style
- 51.
- 57.
- 58. Gaming as partof mainstreamGaming as part of mainstream cultureculture Median age of gamers shoots past 30 Industry size comparable to music Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players
- 59. Games serious, public, and political • Oiligarchy,Molle Industries • Jetset, Persuasive Games • The Great Shakeout, California • DimensionM, Tabula Digita
- 60. Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
- 61. •Joost Raessens andJeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005) •Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008) •Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009) Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field
- 62. How is gamingused now?How is gaming used now?
- 63. Use games toimpact society
- 64. Some impacts oncampusesSome impacts on campuses Changes in hardware, software Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both informal and formal Career paths
- 65. Interface changesInterface changes Gartner: end of the mouse Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)
- 66. Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: rare and/or smaller Professional development: distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is the norm › Both sides of the API
- 67. War onIP rages Nostalgia waves for old media Competing storytelling schools
- 68. Most studentsidentified with one+ game characters in K-12 Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors Most of their work and school is gamified
- 69. How does yourlife change?How does your life change? 1. Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance
- 70. EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1 1.Select one trend 2. Build a world around it • Think STEEP • Think campuses • Imagine your students
- 71. EXERCISEEXERCISE 1. Pick themost unstable, hard to predict trend. 2. Describe its polar extreme possibilities. 3. Pick another trend. 4. Do #2 on it.
- 72.
- 73. 6. Back tocampus What is your current futuring capacity? • Individuals • Practices • Local resources
- 74. 6. Back tocampus What are your external resources? • Collaborations • Online • Professional organizations
- 75. How to develop •Support futures-oriented people • Try out one of these methods • Hold planning/vision sessions • Share news, fiction
- 76. How to develop •Ad hoc or formal group? • “ “ “ “ process? • Partner locally • “ externally
- 77. Plan for theworkshopPlan for the workshop 1. Introductions 2. Delphi method 3. Environmental scanning 4. Trend analysis 5. Scenarios 6. Implementation in your organization
- 78.