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![Key
trends
shaping
future
of
knowledge
creaQon
Net-‐centric
knowledge
organizaQon:
• Knowledge
work
gradually
moves
from
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
(limited
by
physical
space,
0me
of
work
and
number
of
par0cipa0ng
individuals)
into
network-‐like
online
knowledge
crea0on
communi0es.
These
communi0es
start
to
build
new
kind
of
‘knowledge
ecosystem’
(early
prototypes
of
which
are
represented
by
ArXIV,
PLoS
and
Wikipedia)
–
which
will
replace
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
of
knowledge
capturing
within
next
15-‐20
years
• Another
key
process
in
this
trend
is
that
knowledge
storage
becomes
increasingly
digital
(hence
“[digital]
code
is
a
new
text”).
An
immediate
consequence
is
that
knowledge
work
based
on
interconnected
&
interoperable
digital
models
of
reality
(e.g.
computa0on
models
of
biological
&
social
systems)
will
create
shared
computa0onal
approaches
for
‘applied’
knowledge
(used
to
develop
technologies,
solu0ons
&
recommenda0ons)
and
‘fundamental’
knowledge
(the
way
to
capture
fundamental
rela0ons).
• The
speed
of
‘new’
knowledge
crea0on
model
prolifera0on
will
be
con0ngent
on
how
(obsolete)
ins0tu0ons
of
intellectual
private
property
will
hold.
Wide
adop0on
of
models
such
as
Crea0ve
Commons
will
facilitate
the
transforma0on
of
knowledge
worker
community.
26](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/gefcaresults-150803145837-lva1-app6891/75/GEF-California-Results-26-2048.jpg)
![55
Key
challenge
remaining:
public
vs.
private
changemaking?
While
it
is
highly
possible
that
private
and
independent
providers
are
capable
of
rebuilding
or
upgrading
many
elements
of
educa0onal
systems,
educa0on
also
serves
societal
needs
and
therefore
should
retain
public
elements.
However,
it
remains
an
open
discussion
whether
public
providers
are
able
to
lead
the
transforma0on,
or
if
they
are
going
to
respond
to
pressures
created
by
providers
outside
the
conven0onal
system.
Also,
the
role
of
regulators
themselves
is
likely
to
shic
from
direct
governance
to
cul0va0on
of
ecosystems.
Some
ideas
from
par0cipants
of
GEF
California
are
quoted
below:
“Governments
can
contribute
to
the
accelera;on
of
innova;ons
in
educa;on
through
the
investment
and
carrying
out
of
high-‐level
research.
Na;onal
organiza;on
can
also
help
build
bridges
between
different
parts
of
the
system.”
–
Olivier
Brechard
“Scenario
[of
change
driven
by
private
providers
outside
educa;on
system]
raises
concerning
ques;ons
about
the
degree
of
democra;c
control
or
influence
upon
such
changes;
and
their
impact
upon
(the
already
fragile)
effort
toward
equity.
(..)
If
transforma;on
is
to
come
from
within
educa;on
systems
themselves,
it
will
depend
upon
the
emergence
of
a
different
kind
of
leadership.”
Valerie
Hannon
(2015)
“You
can’t
govern
free
and
open
learning
resources,
it’s
an
unstoppable
force
and
it’s
the
most
important
thing
that
happened
to
the
world
in
the
last
20
years.
[However,
i]n
the
foreseeable
future,
the
government
will
and
should
retain
the
responsibility
for
cer;fica;on
of
professionals.
But
it
has
to
remain
dynamic
so
that
we
con;nue
asking
ourselves
a
ques;on
what
people
of
a
certain
profession
need
to
know
and
be
able
to
do.”
-‐
Tom
Vander
Ark
“One
of
the
most
important
things
is
peace.
All
countries
that
are
not
in
peace
have
no
chance
to
par;cipate
in
global
educa;on
system.”
-‐
Victor
Van
Rij
“Technology
and
policies
are
closely
linked.
Government
may
decide
to
build
educa;onal
tools
and
content
and
to
make
them
available
as
public
good.”
–
Francois
Taddei](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/gefcaresults-150803145837-lva1-app6891/75/GEF-California-Results-55-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byGlobal Education Futures
GEF California Results
The GEF California Forum, held in April 2015, focused on the transition from traditional education systems to learner-centered, lifelong learning environments driven by technological innovations and societal changes. Key outcomes included a shared vision for global education and systemic innovation projects, as participants from 15 countries explored new educational models and the role of global educational providers. The discussions emphasized the need for adaptability in education systems to meet the evolving demands of 21st-century learners within a rapidly changing global landscape.
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Similar to GEF California Results
GEF California Results
- 1. Towards Learner- Centered Lifelong Learning Results of Global Educa0on Futures California 1-‐3 April 2015, Menlo Park, CA, USA
- 2. 2 Key statement that led to GEF California Forum An0cipated transi0on from ‘factory systems’ to learner-‐ centered communi0es that support ‘lifelong learning everywhere all the 0me’ is the biggest challenge ever in the history of educa0on. Many progressive global players already invest into this transi0on, including major technology companies, governments of OECD countries, venture capitalists and interna0onal social movements Our ques0on is: what are the produc0ve strategies of different players that support & enhance this scenario?
- 3. Towards learner-‐ centered lifelong learning We explore main changes in educa0on driven by technological innova0ons, major social & economic transforma0ons, changes in demand for skills, and rise of personal & collec0ve educa0onal formats that meet needs of learners in 21st century From ‘knowns’ to ‘unknowns’ This Forum is a collec0ve explora0on, a learning lab It is not to seek expert opinion but to co-‐create Our main outcomes are: • Shared vision for the future of global educa0on, and • Projects of systemic innova0on inspired by collec0ve vision GEF California: Main Subject & Expected Outcomes 3
- 4. GEF California Forum: 3 days of intense work Ca. 100 par0cipants from 15 countries (over three days), including representa0ves of think-‐and-‐do tanks in systemic educa0onal innova0on, policy advisors and visionaries, and ca. 40 leaders of online learning plaorms & projects* Mixed Russian-‐American team of facilitators that used innova0ve methods of collec0ve crea0ve work (Rapid Foresight methodology) Forum conducted in collabora0on with Global Technology Symposium, a leading venture capital event of the Silicon Valley (over 400 par0cipants in 2015) 4 ‘maps of the future’ and 5 GEF project ini0a0ves * See details in Appendix 4
- 5. PART 1: PRECURSORS TO LIFELONG LEARNER-‐CENTERED EDUCATION 5
- 6. Industrial society / economy Knowledge based economy Wisdom based society SocieQes in transiQon 1. The main challenges and existen0al threats of modern civiliza0on are endogenous to the society. The bobleneck of civiliza0onal development is the ability of governing structures (including culture & domina0ng thinking models) to process the accelerated increase of social / technological / environmental complexity 2. Knowledge based economy, shicing aben0on from mass manufacturing of material goods to mass produc0on of knowledge, does not resolve the ‘ills’ of industrial society, including the imbalance between the society & nature. In order to cope with future challenges, it is necessary to transit to wisdom based society, where wisdom (as “fundamental pragma0cs of life” (Baltes, Staudinger, 2000)) drives decision-‐ making of individuals and collec0ves. Economies directly based on the produc0on, distribu0on and use of knowledge and informa0on (OECD, 1996) Society based on (collec0ve) wisdom for common good, alongside with new models of produc0on & sharing Economy and society dominated by mass-‐ produc0on manufacturing based on intensifying division of labor Source: GEF analysis (based on GEF Advisory Board mee0ng, October 2014) 6
- 7. ‘New’ educaQon rises within and outside tradiQonal educaQon system in response to growing demand from transforming socieQes Educa0on spills out of tradi0onal ins0tu0ons and leads to the rise of ‘new’ (network-‐based) educa0on Increasing complexity of socio-‐technical systems (incl. VUCA* environments) redefines demand for new skills & knowledge Low flexibility of exis0ng ins0tu0ons Lack of epistemology required to cope with 21st century challenges Technological enablers: • Mobility & connec0vity • Automa0on (Big Data / AI / etc.) Source: GEF analysis 7 * VUCA = vola0lity, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity
- 8. What happens to skills & knowledge required in increasingly complex socie0es: • Lifecycle of specific skill / knowledge shortens, hence it becomes less important than the ability to learn / relearn / unlearn • Knowledge becomes situated and collec0vely constructed, thus specific skills become less relevant than meta-‐skills necessary to construct knowledge, including communica0on, crea0vity, diversity of thinking styles etc. • Abili0es for self-‐guided ac0on become more important than abili0es to follow externally guided ac0on (hence we an0cipate a genera0on of Self Guided Learners that will use tools of ‘new’ educa0on) What happens to systems that transfer skills & knowledge: • Shic from ‘educa0on as prepara0on for life’ to ‘lifelong con0nuous educa0on’ • Shic from educa0on within a specific ins0tu0on (school / university) to ‘distributed’ educa0on within an ecosystem What growth of complexity may imply for systems that transfer skills & knowledge Source: GEF analysis (based on GEF Advisory Board mee0ng, October 2014) 8
- 9. Rise of global educa0onal providers: • (primarily) Global online learning plaorms • Global social movements • Global technological corpora0ons • Leading world universi0es Emergence of Global EducaQonal Ecosystem Con0nuous globaliza0on: • Recogni0on of global risks: existen0al, environmental, economical & poli0cal • Globaliza0on of economic, poli0cal & cultural life • Emerging systems of supra-‐ na0onal governance • Growing share of global content in media & daily life Rise of global educa0onal ecosystem Gradually declining role of na0onal educa0onal governance Source: GEF analysis (based on GEF Advisory Board mee0ng, October 2014) 9
- 10. ‘More of the same’: increasing economic efficiency / produc0vity / compe00veness in 21 century Key discussions: educa0on is broken but could be fixed by introducing beber pedagogies / ed tech & new curriculum Key discussions: new models of educa0on that should complement exis0ng ones (e.g. urban learning communi0es) ‘Rebuilding urban civilizaQon’: focusing on life quality & social impact (e.g. Sharing Economy, Scharmer’s Capitalism 4.0, Florida’s ‘Reinven0ng Ci0es’ etc.) Key discussions: how can educa0on help us reinvent our rela0onship between ourselves, with our ancestors / descendants, and with our planet ‘CivilizaQonal transit’: focusing on emerging social prac0ces that help us recognize ourselves as a truly planetary species (e.g. Macy’s Great Turning, Eisenstein’s More Beau0ful World etc.) 10 Design of global educaQon ecosystem: levels of consideraQon Source: GEF analysis
- 11. 11 Designing future of global educaQon is seeking the pathway towards protopia Present Seeking to implement game-‐changing visions and solu0ons that are feasible, desirable, and realizable in the here and now Protopia Utopia Dystopia Idealis0c (and ocen overly op0mis0c) futures seeking solu0ons that ul0mately end up being unabainable and are inspira0onal but frustra0ng Unimagina0ve ‘con0nued present’ seeking merely to extend and enhance current paberns of being and doing Myopia Reac0ve (and some0me fatalis0c) futures seeking only to avoid or avert scenarios considered dangerous or undesirable
- 12. ‘Three pillars’ of global educaQon ecosystem design Global educaQonal ecosystem ‘TechnoopQmism’ Humanism Thrivability Employing full poten0al of ICT to transform educa0onal prac0ces Recognizing the risk of civiliza0onal hubris and bringing back love into teacher-‐ student rela0on Establishing new balance between Nature and the humanity Openness • open technology • open content • open knowledge Wholeness • Apollonian & Dionysian • health, love, and “intrinsic virtue” Sustainability • Intra-‐personal • Inter-‐personal • Inter-‐species • Inter-‐genera0onal Values of the emerging 21 century society Source: based on presenta0ons of Toru Iiyoshi, Claudio Naranjo & Alexander Laszlo during GEF CA mee0ng 12
- 13. 2015 2020 2030 Key technological trends that shape future of educaQon` Connec0vity & mobility Automa0on / rise of Ar0ficial Intelligence Deep learning: machines learning with humans using brain models NeuroWeb technologies Brain nano-‐ implants Global WiFi Mandatory neuro-‐ implan0ng? Implan0ng gadgets Risk factor Hard technologies Low-‐cost robo0cs Cloud technologies rapidly remove data storage limits Wide use of Augmented Reality technologies Fully func0onal Internet of Things Fully immersive virtual reality Source: GEF CA session summary 13
- 14. Key social & economic factors that shape future of global educaQon 2015 2020 2030 Rise of New Finance Cryptocurrencies for everyone Crowdinves0ng for social innova0on Decline of tradi0onal governments Source: GEF CA session summary Social entrepreneurship for social change Transi0on of power towards Asian economies / BRICS Growth of mul0culturalism New transparency Reputa0on currencies Growth of South-‐ South trade Planned archaiza0on: to avoid self-‐ transforma0on, governments try to simplify socie0es they govern From global to glocal: rising importance of ci0es & territories Ci0es as learning labs Soc technology / format Risk factor New lingua franca is IT based 14
- 15. PART 2: KEY ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL EDUCATION ECOSYSTEM 15
- 16. +20 years Na0onal content & standards School / university Global learning plaorms City & area educa0onal ecosystems that support lifelong learning City / area (intermediary level) DramaQc shiZ: from local-‐naQonal to regional-‐global Na0onal level (intermediary) Global level (lack of authority) Up to 2010s Mid-‐2030s Source: GEF analysis 16
- 17. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Learning for emerging social prac0ces Local learning ecosystems community learner global local content form Main aspects of the emerging global educaQonal ecosystem Source: GEF analysis 17
- 18. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Learning for emerging social prac0ces Local learning ecosystems Theme 1: Global learning pla[orms (GLPs) Some ques0ons discussed by the group: • Rela0onship between face-‐to-‐face, blended, and online learning? How will new models of learning change tradi0onal schooling structures and the older model of teacher/student rela0on? • How are the internet, the social web, video games, and other forms of gamifica0on changing the educa0onal ecosystem on a local and world scale? • How can families, educators, policy makers, and school leaders use technology to create learning opportuni0es that are both personalized and collabora0ve in design and nature? • What does it mean that English is the lingua franca of the internet age? How will it influence local and global learning networks? Might English be eclipsed by other languages, including computer languages (e.g. Python, Ruby etc.)? 18
- 19. Spreading of technology enabled ‘new’ educa0on Mapping future of GLPs 2015 2020 2030 Rise of digital pedagogy Unbundling / atomiza0on of content New educa0on dominated by global tech companies Rise of agency based online learning Declara0on of Learner Rights Online learning dominates educa0on Conflict between tradi0onal knowledge holders (academy) & new knowledge networks Metaplaorm: interoperable plaorm between GLPs Crisis driven accelerated learning plaorms Cross-‐community problem solving Personalized learning trajectories for everyone Crisis of tradi0onal educa0onal system in industrialized countries due to cost inefficiency Soc technology / format Policy / governance mechanism Risk factor Online learning dominated by mobile plaorms Schools with blended-‐learning-‐ friendly classes Paradigmal conflict: lecturing vs. collabora0on in GLPs Robo0c teachers Hard technologies Uber Teachers Source: GEF CA session 19
- 20. Key trends that shape the future of GLPs Spreading of technology enabled ‘new’ educaQon through GLPs: • At the moment, online learning is considered complimentary and experience-‐enhancing as compared to face-‐to-‐face learning. This idea con0nues to encourage more schools & universi0es to adopt blended learning in their curriculum & create blended-‐learning friendly classrooms. The most important problem resolved by ‘new’ educa0on is the increased value of 0me for learners, teachers & administrators. • Gradually, learning shics to mobile plaorms, detaching the learning process from tradi0onal venues like the classroom & university. • Increasingly costly face-‐to-‐face educa0on in industrialized countries is leading to vast inequali0es among students and among broader popula0on segments. Such dispari0es could well polarize socie0es and encourage more and more people and popula0ons to shic to GLPs. • Within 15-‐20 years, online learning (enhanced by mobile connec0vity, wearable gadgets & augmented reality technologies) may become the dominant form of learning globally. Rise of agency-‐based online learning: • Project-‐based learning (PBL) begins to dominate face-‐to-‐face educa0on, and will gradually be adopted by GLPs as well. It will especially be demanded by Self-‐Guided Learners (see Theme 3) that prefer an ac0ve exploratory astude in learning to passivizing ‘knowledge consumer’ astude. • GLPs can help improve life on planetary scale, e.g. incuba0ng ac0vists projects through project-‐ based learning. GLPs allow engaging in ethical behavior for massive groups without imposing doctrinal restric0ons • Also, GLPs can be used to help rapidly transfer new knowledge & skills to communi0es / socie0es in distress in crisis situa0ons (economy collapse, war, natural hazard, environmental disaster, etc.). Over 0me, GLPs can become essen0al in connec0ng communi0es across the world that face similar problems (e.g. poverty, crime, hunger, etc.) to help cross-‐community learning 20
- 21. Key trends that shape the future of GLPs (2) Unbundling / atomizaQon of content (subtrend): • Atomiza0on allows learners to obtain content that more precisely matches their interests & development needs. Also, atomiza0on supports mobile delivery of content • Atomiza0on challenges the posi0on of tradi0onal ‘knowledge holders’ (i.e. academia) leading to conflicts. IP rights and licensing might well be used to protect the posi0on of tradi0onal ins0tu0ons and perhaps further secure the rela0onship between tradi0onal academic research ins0tu0ons and corpora0ons. In this future vision, what becomes of the users who are ocen creators of content and new forms and means of knowledge? • Aggrega0on of atomized content into searchable global library, curated topical collec0ons & collabora0ve structured discussions • Over 0me, as more knowledge work migrates into distributed network knowledge crea0on structures (see Theme 2), this conflict will likely be resolved in favor of GLPs. As a result, knowledge comes to be created by an ever more vast number of people yet is controlled or archived by dis0nct agencies, plaorm creators, or service providers (such as Google, Minecrac, and Wikipedia). • In such a global society, what happens to the largely western concep0on of ‘liberal educa0on’ (educa0on across many fields of knowledge & explora0on) in favor of more focused career training? Are some forms of knowledge such as memoriza0on displaced while other forms of knowledge such as discernment become ascendent? 21
- 22. Rise of digital pedagogy: • Digital pedagogy (enabled by Big Data analysis and Ar0ficial Intelligence) allows gradual customiza0on (later, personaliza0on) of GLP content based on learner’s behavioral paberns and life strategies (incl. career, health, etc.). Within 15-‐20 years, it will allow delivery of personalized educa0on to every tech-‐equipped learner. Ques0ons remain about how personaliza0on could well serve to drive learners towards select kinds of informa0on and conclusions based on human biases or AI manipula0on, inten0onal or otherwise. • Global technology companies, as aggregators of personalized online behavioral data, will inevitably play significant role in future global educa0onal ecosystem. This raises issues of priva0za0on, learner privacy, and social engineering on a world scale. • In collabora0on with global tech companies, a ‘meta-‐plaorm’ can be created as a consor0um between GLPs, which will aggregate standardized learners’ data in order to foster interoperability of GLPs (recognizing that any fixed plaorm will be a hindrance to evolu0on of the ecosystem). Interoperability or a standard meta-‐plaorm could boost the personalized learning trajectories of individuals and communi0es while suppor0ng the development of new online pedagogies that meet the needs of an ever more diverse base of learners. • Due to the sensi0ve nature of learning processes, the importance of educa0on for individual and societal advancement, learners’ interests must be protected against abuse & manipula0on by commerce & governments. To guard against these possible viola0ons, GLPs and global tech companies should adopt the Declara0on of Learner Rights in the nearest future. Plaorms should build on learner’s interests, help make learning more relevant to life, don’t waste their 0me and give them feedback and recommenda0ons. Plaorms also should allow room for disagreement, diversity and open-‐mindedness. Key trends that shape the future of GLPs (3) 22
- 23. How will the future look for GLPs … in 2020 … in 2030 • Online educa0on forms con0nue spreading, and more educa0onal ins0tu0ons adopt blended-‐learning friendly curriculum & environments • GLP learning model gradually shics from one-‐to-‐many (conven0onal MOOCs) towards many-‐to-‐many, and from ‘consumerist’ towards ‘ac0vist’ model of learning; first project-‐based learning global online plaorms emerge • Declara0on of Learner Rights and Global Learning Meta-‐plaorm help advance the development of digital pedagogy and design of inter-‐plaorm learning trajectories • Online or online-‐supported learning (enhanced by AI and AR) dominate educa0on • Inexpensive personalized learning available to any tech-‐equipped user • Many-‐to-‐many pedagogy and online project based learning are increasingly popular as the genera0on of Self Guided Learners comes into play • GLPs play important role in coordina0ng and enhancing collec0ve effort for beber world 23
- 24. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Theme 2: New Models of Knowledge CreaQon Some ques0ons discussed by the group: • Science in the era of ‘instant knowing’, the role of AIs & BigData • Many types of knowledge and their federa0on, who creates & owns the ‘worldview’ • New ‘technologies of thinking’ • The trend toward over-‐ simplifica0on of knowledge in schools (and the loss of true understanding for students) • The increased aben0on to the importance of empathy for sharing worldviews and to give depth to shared knowledge Learning for emerging social prac0ces Local learning ecosystems 24
- 25. Mapping future of Knowledge CreaQon 2015 2020 2030 Rise of Ar0ficial Intelligence assisted research Growing complexity-‐simplicity tension Re-‐humaniza0on of knowledge work Net-‐centric digitalized knowledge organiza0on Migra0on from academia to online network KC communi0es Empathy educa0on to increase and build networks of empathy Global knowledge ecosystem in full use Natural-‐social-‐ technical system engineering AI takes over programming work Clarity of understanding as basic KW skill New remarkable evidences of human-‐ caused destruc0on of nature Mixed human-‐machine research groups coordinated by AI Soc technology / format Policy / governance mechanism Risk factor Hard technologies ‘CC-‐world’: revision of legisla0on governing digital IP ‘Cogni0ve barrier’: self-‐ organized digitalized knowledge systems non-‐ comprehendable by human mind New epistemology: beyond subject-‐ object division Integra0on of ‘worldview’ provided by AI Code is a new kind of text Open source science Source: GEF CA session 25 Input that can ini0ate paradgimal shic
- 26. Key trends shaping future of knowledge creaQon Net-‐centric knowledge organizaQon: • Knowledge work gradually moves from tradi0onal ins0tu0ons (limited by physical space, 0me of work and number of par0cipa0ng individuals) into network-‐like online knowledge crea0on communi0es. These communi0es start to build new kind of ‘knowledge ecosystem’ (early prototypes of which are represented by ArXIV, PLoS and Wikipedia) – which will replace tradi0onal ins0tu0ons of knowledge capturing within next 15-‐20 years • Another key process in this trend is that knowledge storage becomes increasingly digital (hence “[digital] code is a new text”). An immediate consequence is that knowledge work based on interconnected & interoperable digital models of reality (e.g. computa0on models of biological & social systems) will create shared computa0onal approaches for ‘applied’ knowledge (used to develop technologies, solu0ons & recommenda0ons) and ‘fundamental’ knowledge (the way to capture fundamental rela0ons). • The speed of ‘new’ knowledge crea0on model prolifera0on will be con0ngent on how (obsolete) ins0tu0ons of intellectual private property will hold. Wide adop0on of models such as Crea0ve Commons will facilitate the transforma0on of knowledge worker community. 26
- 27. Key trends shaping future of knowledge creaQon (2) Growing complexity-‐simplicity tension: • Tension between increasingly complex knowledge organiza0on (required to help guide complex socie0es) and barrier to complexity comprehension will be the main problem of knowledge work in 21st century, and thus simplifica0on of knowledge becomes a great risk. It is necessary to seek methods that help deal with this issue, by being willing to embrace the complexity, and also by developing new ways of sharing and developing shared understanding • Also, an increased complexity – including increasingly observable feedback from nature on human ac0on (including climate change effects and massive destruc0on of marine wildlife) – will call for more sophis0cated modelling of feedback loops, especially in engineering. An already-‐happening paradigm shic from technical to socio-‐technical systems design will be soon followed by the next shic, towards natural-‐socio-‐technical systems design that monitors feedback loops in a highly integrated, real-‐0me fashion. • Over 0me, as volume & complexity of available knowledge increases, in next 10-‐15 years AI will gradually take over the role of ‘integrator’ that helps to summarize theore0cal founda0ons of a discipline or the domina0ng ‘worldview’. Within the next 10-‐15 years acer that, a foreseeable risk is that knowledge organiza0on will become totally incomprehensible by any individual, or even collec0ve, human mind. • The need for new ways of ‘knowing’ will increase 27
- 28. Key trends shaping future of knowledge creaQon (3) Rise of AI assisted research: • Ar0ficial Intelligence (AI) will play increasingly important role in research work. AI will become increasingly self-‐organized, taking over not only data analysis but also low-‐level programming work. As knowledge representa0on becomes increasingly digital, ‘in silico’ experimen0ng will ocen complement other forms of research. • AI will become a fully func0onal member of research teams, helping to iden0fy knowledge ‘lacunas’ and generate research hypotheses. Re-‐humanizaQon of knowledge work: • Knowledge work has long suffered from ‘factory style’ knowledge crea0on processes that alienate researchers from research interests & results. In addi0on, the dominant ethics passivized studied ‘objects’ (incl. animals & human beings) and detached them from the researcher. In future knowledge crea0on work, the driving force will be researcher’s passion about the theme of study – thus empathy becomes a key research skill. Adop0on of empathic (mutually transforming) rela0on between ‘the one who studies’ and ‘the one being studied’ may eventually lead to the rise of a new epistemology that overcomes the division between the object and the subject. 28
- 29. How will the future look like for Knowledge CreaQon Models • Open Source science becomes increasingly popular. Knowledge workers gradually migrate from tradi0onal knowledge crea0on ins0tu0ons towards loosely organized network knowledge crea0on communi0es. • AI starts playing increasingly important role in all aspects of research process, from data organiza0on and model iden0fica0on to experiment design and team planning. • Soc skills of knowledge workers become increasingly important, including new ways of working with complexity by crea0ng means of access to deeper shared understanding of complex systems, through honoring the process and the person(s) • Human knowledge work focuses on more ‘humanis0c’ aspects of cogni0on that involve crea0vity, passion, openness, and personal rela0on. New ways of ‘knowing’ are on the rise • Global knowledge ecosystem replaces the significant share of tradi0onal organiza0on of science. • Natural-‐socio-‐technical systems designs help monitor feedback loops in a highly integrated, real-‐ 0me fashion. AI plays significant role in organiza0on of knowledge, with risk of moving towards the level beyond human comprehension … in 2020 … in 2030 29
- 30. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Learning for emerging social prac0ces Theme 3: Learning for Emerging Social PracQces Some ques0ons discussed by the group: • What new skills will be demanded in the transforming 21st century society, and how should these be taught? • How will competence based model look in lifelong learning? What models will support lifelong personal development? • What will be the organiza0on of learning spaces, and the change in role of teacher & learner? Local learning ecosystems 30
- 31. Mapping future of learning for emerging social pracQces 2015 2020 2030 Soc technology / format Policy / governance mechanism Whole person learning Growing demand for ‘future skills’ Shic of decision-‐making to students: student voice+choice Standard curriculum focused on existen0al competencies Student-‐led learning opportuni0es Self-‐guided learners genera0on Shic from tradi0onal ins0tu0ons to learning communi0es Unschooling communi0es Future awareness as universal skill Assessment models unable to measure desirable skills of 21 century ci0zens Wearables for personal development & brain fitness Project-‐based learning as ‘ini0a0on’ into self-‐ guided learning Collabora0ve peer-‐to-‐peer online learning & mentonring From subject-‐ to topic-‐based educa0on Playifica0on of educa0on Mindfulness training as part of standard curriculum Skills for lifelong health Source: GEF CA session Early age entrepreneurship Policies that encourage self-‐guided learning Schools of thinking methods Learners’ empowerment through shared stories of learning Prac0ces of vulnerability Empowerment of feminine 31 Input that can ini0ate paradgimal shic
- 32. Key trends that shape the future of learning for emerging social pracQces ShiZ of decision-‐making to students: student voice+choice: • Recogni0on of student voice (and shic of decision making to students) is one of the main transforma0onal challenges for the secondary & ter0ary educa0on, to which many administrators, teachers, and families (and even some students themselves) resist. The gradual introduc0on of student-‐led learning opportuni0es is, however, inevitable – since we can become ‘learners for life’ only through the regular prac0ce of self-‐guided learning (and the skill of lifelong learning becomes crucial to cope with 21 century challenges). • Project-‐based learning (PBL) is among one of the highly efficient tools to ‘ini0ate’ students into self-‐ guided learning (as it is driven by student’s own interests and choices) – and so it will be increasingly applied across all levels of educa0on. Policies that encourage self-‐guided learning (including regula0ons that allow more flexible choice of educa0onal providers) will be widely adopted in countries with developed educa0onal systems. ShiZ from tradiQonal insQtuQons to learning communiQes: • Horizontal / network-‐structured learning communi0es start playing increasingly important role in learning, offering programs & curriculums more relevant to student needs. Part of their role for learners is to unschool, to remove nega0ve ‘programming’ created by ‘industrial educa0on’. Learning communi0es can offer educa0on centered around students’ interests and real-‐world problems (i.e. topic-‐based educa0on instead of subject-‐based). ‘Unstructuring’ of exis0ng schools can be part of this process. • Learning communi0es can be created with a cause (e.g. focused on social ac0vism or specific needs of a local community), and thus collabora0ve ac0on can guide the collec0ve learning. While some of this learning may happen face-‐to-‐face, it may also be conducted in peer-‐to-‐peer online networks (also see Theme 1). In addi0on to peer-‐to-‐peer learning, P2P mentoring will be an important part of future learning landscape 32
- 33. Growing demand for future skills: • For self-‐guided learners, it will be crucial to build personalized long-‐term development strategies and to obtain meta-‐skills that will be suitable in various professional and personal circumstances. Among such meta-‐skills are: • future awareness (the ability to understand variety of future scenarios and create individual and collec0ve strategies); • entrepreneurship (the ability to ini0ate & organize new projects, social & commercial ini0a0ves) that should be taught from the early age; • diverse thinking methods for beber comprehension of complex problems (incl. mathema0cal, systemic, ar0s0c, poe0c etc.) • mindfulness, that should also be taught from early age & become part of the standard curriculum • and, among the most important, various skills that help maintain lifelong physical, mental & social health (as well as skills for maintaining personal, family & community health) • Playifica0on (as dis0nguished from gamifica0on) becomes increasingly important in gesng skills of the future as it allows ‘living through’ studied topics instead of learning about them (story-‐dwelling, not story-‐telling) Key trends that shape the future of learning for emerging social pracQces (2) 33
- 34. Key trends that shape the future of learning for emerging social pracQces (3) Whole person educaQon: • In 21 century educa0on, limited focus of industrial educa0on on the development of cogni0ve abili0es and professional skills only will be seen as highly deficient. Instead, a call is made to develop ‘humane’ abili0es, including emo0onal and social intelligence, crea0vity, and skills that support collabora0ve work. This process will be enhanced by the increased recogni0on of irrelevance of standardized learning achievement measurement (including tests of cogni0ve abili0es), and the need for more ‘holis0c’ assessment metrics that embeds various aspects of human mental, physical, and emo0onal development. • Whole person educa0on should recognize quali0es neglected in Western ‘white-‐male’-‐ centered civiliza0on, including the support to prac0ce of vulnerability (which helps promote openness and sincerity within the society) and recogni0on / empowerment of the feminine within each of us • In lifelong educa0on, a gradual shic of pedagogical focus will occur from skills to meta-‐ skills (e.g. thinking methods, crea0vity etc.) and from meta-‐skills towards existen0al skills (that determine our long-‐term ‘strategies of living our lives’). Within 15-‐20 years, some of existen0al skills may become a focus of standard curriculum in developed countries. • Whole person educa0on key principle is 3H: Heart on, Hands on, and Head on! (Also: we might want to add ‘learning with the gut’, i.e. an0cipatory/ intui0ve/ sensing aspects of learning to this). 34
- 35. How will the future look like for learning for emerging social pracQces … in 2020 … in 2030 • Schools & universi0es increasingly offer student-‐led learning opportuni0es and encourage self-‐guided learning. • Collabora0ve learning communi0es (with a cause) provide robust alterna0ves to conven0onal educa0on and help in ‘unschooling’ • No0on of ‘whole person learning’ gets limited recogni0on in educa0on, and providers outside conven0onal educa0on system increasingly provide opportuni0es for holis0c educa0on – including educa0on technology companies that provide gadgets for personal development. • Some ‘future skills’ enter into conven0onal or complimentary educa0on, including future awareness and entrepreneurship for all groups of learners. • Self-‐guided learning becomes a norm, not an excep0on • Collabora0ve learning communi0es play significant role in lifelong educa0on – and their ‘horizontal’ protocols enter into conven0onal educa0on as a new norm • ‘Holis0c’ paradigm in educa0on is generally accepted, and existen0al competences become the focus of curriculum for life-‐ long learners • Meta-‐skills such as mindfulness and healthy lifelong living become part of the standard curriculum in developed countries 35
- 36. ShiZ from competences to existenQal competences Context / domain-‐ specific competences Professional knowledge & skills (e.g. anatomy & surgery techniques for a surgeon) General competences Meta-‐competences Generally shared skills & knowledge that create basis for collec0ve work and division of labor, e.g. skill of reading, wri0ng, calcula0on etc. Thinking models & technologies Crea0vity & esthe0c capabili0es etc. Existen0al competences ‘The ul0mate answer to ‘why we do what we do’ (i.e. system of priori0es) Our ability to connect with ourselves and others on existen0al level (i.e. ability to experience joy and love) Ability to stay healthy relevance increases over life 0mespan Type of competence Examples of competence Average lifeQme Months to few years Years to decades Decades to life0me In move towards lifelong learning, educa0onal systems should take into considera0on not only competences but meta-‐competences and existen0al competences – fundamental not only to our professional and social success but to quality of our life. Source: GEF analysis 36
- 37. Problems in the exisQng set up of educaQonal systems that can block or threaten emergence of new learning ecosystems • Over-‐exploited teachers (demanding to much from teachers that are poorly trained for current workload and are paid lible) • Conveyer belt teaching (teaching teachers 'quickly and crudely', believing teachers are just another type of service-‐providers and don't need special socio-‐emo0onal prepara0on to start performing their ac0vity) • ‘Young cheap teachers’ (as more and more mature teachers find it hard to support themselves and their families given their small salary, we see more and more young incompetent teachers (most commonly poorly trained according to old expecta0ons) taking over the places) • Too many non teaching teachers in the system (a lot of administrators and educa0onal leaders have never had teaching experience) • Resistance to spiritual educa0on (on behalf of secular community/government that confuse religious and spiritual educa0on) • Wri0ng off affec0ve experience (eg. lack of recogni0on of the affects of trauma) • Stakeholders invest in technology but not in teaching teachers or how to use it well (with the growing EdTech market we are all facing immense investments into technology and very lible investment into alive teachers, who are s0ll the main 'source' of knowledge. 37
- 38. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Emerging social prac0ces Local learning ecosystems Theme 4: Local learning ecosystems: resilient ciQes & communiQes Some ques0ons discussed by the group: • Educa0on for ‘family lifecycle’ • Educa0on for personal & collec0ve health / wellness / well-‐ being • Urban resilience through ‘communi0es with a cause’ • Transforma0on of public spaces & role in learning Learning for emerging social prac0ces 38
- 39. Mapping future of local learning ecosystems 2015 2020 2030 Source: GEF CA session Concentrated urbaniza0on: growing megaci0es, shrinking small ci0es BigData helps organize city processes Growth of self-‐organizing communi0es through ‘third-‐space’ Starbucks Agora Spontaneous & collabora0ve public art encourages interac0on between strangers ‘Idle space exchange’ for public needs Learning spillover Makers & pop-‐up entrepreneurs help solve urban problems Urban farming Evolu0onary learning communi0es as hubs of urban learning & development Increased divides: economic, ethnical, religious, … Media ac0vism to increase awareness Fear & anxiety related to diversity lead to reac0onary conserva0sm & protec0onism Skill / experience obtained in community is recognized as a degree Ci0es help create natural environment & reduce effects of climate change ‘Digital Athens’: robo0cs & smart environments replace human urban workers Soc technology / format Policy / governance mechanism Risk factor Hard technologies Family community learning Connec0vity redefines families: mul0ple / shared families etc. Peacemaking / media0on as a basic skill 39 Risk of dehumaniza0on of society due to technology media0on Community health as focus of community learning Urban naviga0on through learning opportuni0es Learning Ecosystem Maturity Metrics ‘Learner Maker’ Spaces
- 40. Key trends shaping future of local learning ecosystems Concentrated urbanizaQon -‐ growing megaciQes, shrinking small ciQes: • Urbaniza0on in 21 century is coupled with city concentra0on, as people move from small ci0es into megaci0es. The richness of megacity educa0onal landscape allows for emergence of full-‐scale ‘learning ecosystems’ that would support educa0on of a whole person throughout life0me. • Sustainability of megaci0es will require applica0on of various technologies that would increase safety & comfort of the city, increase the produc0vity of urban work, and redefine city rela0on with the natural environment: robo0cs, smart environment & Big Data for execu0on & coordina0on of city processes; healthy food produc0on through urban micro-‐agriculture; new resource & waste management processes that can make ci0es the source of clean air / water, fer0le soil, restored species of plants & animals. These prac0ces of sustainability should be supported by community learning (e.g. learning about sustainable food produc0on as ‘learning through ea0ng’) • Efficient management of city resources would allow more public spaces be used for learning & interac0on, allowing communi0es to create more public good. Idle spaces can be shared through public ‘exchanges’ Growth of self-‐organizing communiQes through ‘third-‐space’: • Public spaces become venues where communi0es are established & maintained. ‘Starbucks Agora’ is an exemplary format that encourages local communi0es to use cafes and other ‘third-‐spaces’ to connect, share knowledge & skills (in form of public lectures, leisure clubs etc.), and discuss important community mabers through various forms of par0cipatory dialogues. • Self-‐organized city communi0es can aim to solve local problems through project-‐based problem-‐ oriented formats such as local hackathons, maker movement ac0vi0es, pop-‐up entrepreneurship etc. • Spontaneous & collabora0ve public art becomes an important vehicle in removing barriers between individuals & communi0es and engaging strangers into dialogues and collec0ve ac0ons. • Essen0ally, communi0es become the places to prevent dehumaniza0on of society that is induced by intensified applica0on of technologies 40
- 41. Key trends shaping future of local learning ecosystems (2) Learning spillover – from formal to informal, from specialized to omnipresent: • As city increasingly becomes a learning space, new tools will support individual & collec0ve learning. Among the most important ones are naviga0on tools which will couple personal learning trajectories (or interests / preferences) with learning opportuni0es that exist in the proximity of a learner. • In the longer run, various elements of community-‐based learning would integrate into Evolu0onary Learning Communi0es that may become ‘hubs’ of urban learning & development for individuals, families, and groups (a prototype of such ‘hubs’ are ‘Learner Maker Spaces’ for new models of learning) • Policies that recognize skills / knowledge obtained in community-‐based learning as a formal degree will help legi0mize and increase popularity of new forms of educa0on. • Learning Ecosystem Maturity Metrics, a system of indicators indica0ng compara0ve development of local learning ecosystems (similar to Technology Readiness metrics or LEED cer0fica0on system), can be used to help NGOs and regional administra0ons to understand how to improve learning processes in their local ecosystems and to create increasingly resilient communi0es. Increased divides – economic, ethnical, religious, …: • Ci0es, and especially megaci0es, due to their high diversity, ocen become the source of tensions. In response to the increasingly complexity of urban life, some socie0es try to conserve themselves, restrict the inflow of variety and even launch ‘controlled archaiza0on’ – which moves the problem to next systemic level and poten0ally aggravates it. This may lead to increased instances of violence & social injus0ce directed at minority or s0gma0zed groups. ‘New media’ can become the source of urban ac0vism that responds to such processes. Conflict media0on & peacemaking may become widely distributed skills to help prevent community & family violence. • Families are undergoing a major transforma0on that is accelerated by connec0vity that both builds barriers within the conven0onal family and allows for new associa0ons. Par0cipa0on in mul0ple or shared families becomes widespread, and ra0onale of the family is redefined, shicing from kin loyalty and economic bonds to associa0ons based on shared values and existen0al interests. Families become collec0ve learners that increasingly engage in mul0-‐genera0onal community-‐based learning. 41
- 42. How will the future look like for local learning ecosystems … in 2020 … in 2030 • Public spaces and ‘third-‐places’ become venues of community-‐based learning. Idle spaces are increasingly used for collec0ve learning needs. Public art projects encourage people to explore and remove barriers between individuals / communi0es • Instant formats for community interac0on, such as ‘Starbucks Agoras’ and urban hackathons, help connect & empower local learners and solve local community problems • Tools for urban learner naviga0on help connect personal learning interests with the mul0tude of learning opportuni0es offered within communi0es, events, ins0tu0ons etc. • Technology-‐enriched ci0es redefine the organiza0on of urban living and the rela0on between the city and Nature • ‘Digital Athens’ -‐ new balance of work/leisure is enabled by robo0cs & smart environment • Learning is interconnected with a quest for health and quality of life. There is a strong emphasis on individual and community health • Families redefine themselves on the grounds of shared values and existen0al interests, and new families become mul0-‐genera0onal community learners 42
- 43. EvoluQonary learning communiQes: hubs for learning, inquiry, design & acQon 43 Evolu0onary learning community (ELC) Family life (children-‐ elders) Ecology Food systems Leadership / personal develop-‐ ment Physical / emo0onal health Spirituality Art / cultural expression Economy / entrepre-‐ neurship Evolu0onary learning communi0es are places where we can do the work to prevent the dehumaniza0on of society Source: GEF CA session
- 44. Global online learning plaorms New models of knowledge crea0on (‘post-‐ science’) Learning for emerging social prac0ces Local learning ecosystems Governance of Global Learning Ecosystem & Shared Projects System of governance + systemic innova0ons 44
- 45. Architecture of global educaQonal ecosystem ` Global learning pla[orms (GLPs) • Global content is crowdsourced in real-‐0me through collabora0ve crea0vity & computer-‐assisted knowing and learning environments • Niche players in global content provision integrated by integral providers that support (standard) individual learning (& career) trajectories • Meta-‐plaorm built on the principles defined by ‘Declara0on of Learners Rights’ ‘Meta-‐city’ City / area educaQonal ecosystem • Local (learner focused) content & process • Local educa0onal providers integrated into personalized learning ‘pathways’ (that may also be physical pathways) • Urban public spaces becoming educa0onal: e.g. Starbucks Agoras • ‘Points of connec0on’ with GLPs • Global corpora0ons with shared prac0ces • Interna0onal movements (e.g. Slow Food or Rotary) • Educa0onal franchises, incl. social change plaorms (e.g. Impact Hub, Techstars, …) • Interna0onal online / offline art projects Source: GEF analysis 45
- 46. (Ethical) principles of global educaQonal ecosystem 1. ‘Technologies for people – not people for technologies’: future educa0onal systems cannot be built with new technological architecture alone (as it happened with Internet search, social media interac0on, or personalized helpers like Siri). It should also consider • Values & principles defined by the ‘Declara0on of Learner Rights’ (incl. the principle of primacy of learner demands & interests) • Social design of new educa0on based on systemic pedagogical & psychological research (incl. ‘digital pedagogy’) 2. If the transi0on to true life long learning happens: • The objec0ve of educa0on should not be ‘acquisi0on of skills & knowledge’, but support to life long human development (transi0on from competencies to meta-‐ competencies, and from meta-‐competencies to existen0al competencies) • Educa0on should become focused on whole person, i.e. it should help develop not only our cogni0ve abili0es and ‘knowledge base’, but also our bodies, our social & emo0onal intelligence – and this development should be supported by various educa0onal technologies • Quality of the learning and related human feelings, such as love, joy, trust, and acceptance, should be placed at the heart of educa0onal processes. 3. Community (of prac00oners driven by shared values) becomes a central space in knowledge acquisi0on and knowledge crea0on (that in the future become elements of the same process) 46 Source: GEF analysis
- 47. GEF: possible strategic iniQaQves that may accelerate transiQon towards ‘new’ educaQon 2015 2016 2018 2017 Declara0on of Learner Rights Meta-‐plaorm: interoperable plaorm between GLPs Granddaughter of All Demos: advanced tools for collabora0ve learning are created to commemorate 50 years since Doug Engerlbard’s ‘Mother of All Demos’ Learning Ecosystem Maturity Metrics on city / region level Network of ‘Learner Maker Spaces’: hubs for urban learning that help various forms of community learning 47 Challenges & accelera0on programs to catalyze systemic innova0on in educa0on Mapping of systemic innovators Source: GEF CA session
- 48. 48 Learner Maker Space: a hub for urban learning ecosystem innovaQons Accelerators for learning & social innovaQon: • Ed tech startups • Social entrepreneurship projects • Projects of change in schools / universi0es (main ques0on: is it possible to capitalize this type of projects to make accelera0on sustainable?) Laboratories for social & learning innovaQon, e.g.: • Gamefica0on / playifica0on & game (play) design • Project-‐based learning • Future awareness • Design thinking Exchange of best pracQces between innovators: • Innova0ve (e.g. ‘free’) schools • Fablabs & maker spaces • Startup accelerators • Live game developers, etc. Space for experiments on new & breakthrough innova0ons in urban learning, e.g.: • Maker classes & hackathons • Social innova0on ‘living labs’ • Foresights & vision building exercises for the community, etc. Network of ‘hubs’ across the world VC funds inves0ng in new projects Learner Maker Space Agenda of local / regional communi0es & govt Demand from local schools & universi0es Source: GEF CA session and GEF interviews
- 49. PART 3: HOW WILL NEW EDUCATION UNFOLD – POSSIBLE SCENARIOS 49
- 50. Internal inerQa of exisQng system is the main challenge in creaQng ‘new’ educaQon ‘Tradi0onal’ educa0on systems ‘New’ educa0on Blockage: exis0ng system design, although inefficient, is based on several interdependent locked-‐in arrangements (e.g. degree & cer0fica0on system, teacher qualifica0ons & job market arrangements, etc.) that has high ‘reassembly’ cost that no individual agent (not even government) is ready to pay ‘Reassembled’ design: • Network-‐based dynamically evolving eco-‐system of mul0ple types of providers • Supports lifelong learning • Supports learning everywhere, all the 0me Source: GEF analysis (based on interviews during GEF CA) ? 2015 2035 Current design: • Hierarchical system of educa0onal ‘levels’ largely controlled by na0onal governments • Focuses on socializing & professional skills during first 15-‐25 years of life • Learning happens in specific loca0ons in specific 0mes only 50
- 51. What are (some) key roles that ‘new’ educaQon providers have to undertake? 51 EducaQonal insQtuQon (school / university) as ‘unified’ provider Development of ‘world view’ Assessment Integrated learning / all-‐round development Socializa0on / ci0zenship training Voca0onal training / real life projects Learning plaorms Fab/hack-‐labs & maker spaces Clubs / communi0es Integra0on providers Independent cer0fica0on systems … ‘New’ providers in ecosystem Func0ons of tradi0onal ‘integrated’ educa0onal providers can be ‘unbundled’ by networks of ‘new’ providers within learning ecosystems Source: GEF analysis (based on interviews during GEF CA)
- 52. New integrators: who are the candidates? 52 In the new (network) economy, ecosystems are built around ‘integrators’ that serve as ‘entry point’ to end users (e.g. Google in searching, Facebook in social media, AppStore in smartphone applica0ons, etc.). In ‘new’ educa0on, such integrators must become long-‐term providers of personalized learning trajectories Personal learning trajectory Candidate type 1: ‘Long game’ providers Candidate type 2: Global learning plaorms Candidate type 3: Career management & talent investment Candidate type 4: Personal development plaorms Why: game developers & toy companies legi0mize their increasing access to children & adult playing 0me by providing them ‘useful’ educa0onal services What: game universes & robo0c toys with long playing scenarios that have educa0on components Candidate companies: Blizzard, MS Xbox, LEGO Why: ‘repackaging’ of academic & voca0onal knowledge into online content championed by top universi0es & major training companies What: various professional cer0ficates & academic degrees Candidate companies: Coursera, EdX Why: providers of personal development seek long-‐ term engagement with prac00oners What: long-‐term personal development scenarios enhanced by gadgets (e.g. biofeedback) Candidate companies: WildDivine (this is most underdeveloped sector) Why: professional social media extends into career management (personalized educa0on &career trajectories) & helps companies invest in talent What: personalized educa0on & training to manage career opportuni0es & income stream Candidate companies: LinkedIn, Monster Social media (e.g. Facebook or Twiber feeds): educa0onal scenarios as a part of personally filtered informa0on flow Geotarge;ng (e.g. Foursquare): educa0onal trajectories as a part of personal pathways through local areas Source: GEF analysis
- 53. Stage 1: support to exis0ng system Up ;ll 2010s Stage 2: system expansion 2010s-‐2020s Stage 3: emergence of ecosystem Late 2020s and onwards Educa0onal system largely dominated by tradi0onal ins0tu0ons (schools / colleges / universi0es), while new providers focus on suppor0ng services How can ‘beauQful excepQons’ become ‘new systemic norm’: a possible scenario Majority of ed tech companies that see schools & universi0es as their target market and work on specific improvements for exis0ng educa0onal processes: e.g. Blackboard, Promethean etc. Providers that seek to create addi0onal skills / knowledge outside or adjacent to standard curriculum: e.g. EdModo, PresenceLearning, Lego Mindstorm clubs etc. New educa0onal providers abempt to take over parts of the key educa0onal processes in areas that are complimentary to exis0ng schools / universi0es New educa0onal providers can support all-‐round process on par with exis0ng educa0onal system (and can provide new func0onality such as personalized learning) None of the exis0ng players at the moment; mul0ple candidate technologies exist (global learning plaorms such as Coursera and EdCast, etc.) 53 Source: GEF analysis
- 54. Possible architecture of future educaQonal ecosystems 54 Global learning plaorm & learning trajectory management system 1st Qer suppliers: ‘package’ content & provide standard educa0on-‐related services Integrator: provides & coordinates integrated learning experiences MOOC provider Cer0fica0on plaorm Simulator provider 2nd Qer suppliers: provide original content & support ‘packaging’ Company / community holding specific knowledge / skill Simula0on socware developer Future educa0onal ecosystems will likely model the design of other network-‐based industries: in this case, ecosystems will be clustered around integrators that coordinate their supplier systems, organized into 0ers. Various type of educa0on providers and ed tech companies will need to define their role in rela0on to future integrators. Source: GEF analysis
- 55. 55 Key challenge remaining: public vs. private changemaking? While it is highly possible that private and independent providers are capable of rebuilding or upgrading many elements of educa0onal systems, educa0on also serves societal needs and therefore should retain public elements. However, it remains an open discussion whether public providers are able to lead the transforma0on, or if they are going to respond to pressures created by providers outside the conven0onal system. Also, the role of regulators themselves is likely to shic from direct governance to cul0va0on of ecosystems. Some ideas from par0cipants of GEF California are quoted below: “Governments can contribute to the accelera;on of innova;ons in educa;on through the investment and carrying out of high-‐level research. Na;onal organiza;on can also help build bridges between different parts of the system.” – Olivier Brechard “Scenario [of change driven by private providers outside educa;on system] raises concerning ques;ons about the degree of democra;c control or influence upon such changes; and their impact upon (the already fragile) effort toward equity. (..) If transforma;on is to come from within educa;on systems themselves, it will depend upon the emergence of a different kind of leadership.” Valerie Hannon (2015) “You can’t govern free and open learning resources, it’s an unstoppable force and it’s the most important thing that happened to the world in the last 20 years. [However, i]n the foreseeable future, the government will and should retain the responsibility for cer;fica;on of professionals. But it has to remain dynamic so that we con;nue asking ourselves a ques;on what people of a certain profession need to know and be able to do.” -‐ Tom Vander Ark “One of the most important things is peace. All countries that are not in peace have no chance to par;cipate in global educa;on system.” -‐ Victor Van Rij “Technology and policies are closely linked. Government may decide to build educa;onal tools and content and to make them available as public good.” – Francois Taddei
- 56. We have only just begun the process of discovering and inven0ng the new organiza0onal forms that will inhabit the 21st Century. We need the courage to let go of the old world, to relinquish most of what we have cherished, to abandon our interpreta0ons about what does and doesn’t work. Margaret Wheatley The future of educaQon: scratching the surface “ ” 56
- 57.
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- 59. ComposiQon of the ParQcipants Group Regional representaQon Male / female OrganizaQonal representaQon Analysis based on the list of registered par0cipants (N=82) Around 15-‐20 addi0onal par0cipants from Global Technology Symposium joined several of the sessions * Innova0on & Change Plaorms are various NGOs that work towards systemic transforma0on of educa0on on regional or global level * 59
- 60. Global EducaQon Futures California: Shared Values Space Learning innovation Time Meaningful Health- oriented Presence Gift and heartbreak Liberating Resilience Creativity Self- development Strategy Commitment / responsibility Critical thinking Trust Purpose Joy/ play Community Equity Being learners all the time Love Curiosity Shared by more than 1 group Shared by all groups Values nominated only in 1 group Meritocracy Discovery Value of roles Value of personality Learning journey/ mapping Transparency MentoringAppreciation Named by par0cipants in response to the ques0on “What key values are manifested in experiences that shaped you as learner, teacher, and changemaker?’ and summarized within four working groups 60
- 61. Global EducaQon Futures California: Project Space 61 Clustering of #tags used by par0cipants to describe their current projects in educa0on #Student’s voice #Collabora0ve learning #Systemicity #Common Good #art in educa0on #meaningful fun #spiritual growth #emo0onal intelligence # technology cannot subs0tute human touch #community GDP #reinven0ng community #healing educa0on # resilience # technology for community health # transgenera0onal #fear of kids #sprint to solu0ons #parent management #fragmenta0on #lack of common values #big data #predic0ve analy0cs #open educa0on #radical informa0on literacy #computer-‐mediated learning Overcoming obstacles Leveraging technology Bringing human touch Embracing community #Love
- 62. GEF California: Key Process Group work: Values that shape learners + Image of desirable future of educa0on Keynotes / panels: founda0onal concepts that define the ‘design space’ for future of learning Panels: changes within and outside educa0on systems Group work: Key trends that shape future of educa0on to 2035 Group work: New educa0on formats Possible project ini0a0ves Presenta0on & discussion of Group work results April 1 April 2 April 3 Inputs from key experts Group work (Rapid Foresight) Final presenta0on 62
- 63. GEF California: List of Contributors 63 Parvin Akhmadi (Pleasanton Unified School District, USA) Valerie Androsenko (InCIET, Russia) Nargiz Asadova (Skoltech Ins;tute, Russia) Motaz Akalla (Educa;on Policy Research, USA) Judi Bauerlein (Montessory School, USA) Sarah Bradley (Open Masters, USA) Olivier Brechard (Ins;tute of Ac;on Research for Educa;on, France) Andrew Campbell (Co-‐Create, UK) Julian Caspari (Schools without Borders, Canada) Yin Cheong Cheng (Hong Kong Ins;tute of Educa;on, Hong Kong) Igor Chirikov (Higher School of Economics -‐ Ins;tute of Educa;on, Russia) Joshua Cubista (Strategic Ac;on & Sustainability, Canada) Viktor Demin (Tomsk State University, Russia) Lucas Dixon (Google, USA) Ruben Dominguez (Claudio Naranjo University, Mexico) Cees Donkers (City Eindhoven, Netherlands) Henry Etzkovitz (H-‐STAR Ins;tute & Triple Helix Associa;on, USA) Stuart Evans (Carnegie Melon U, USA) Mei Lin Fung (Ins;tute for Social Excellence, USA) Sue Gabriele (South Bay Special Division Coordina;on Team, ASTD-‐LA, USA) David Goldsmith (Goldsmith Organiza;on, USA) Stanley Gould (Knowledge Communi;es Federa;on, USA) Virginia Green (S;llwater, USA) Alexey Gusev (Russian Venture Company, Russia) Sam Hahn (Program for the Future, USA) Valerie Hannon (Innova;on Unit & GELP, UK) Frode Hegland (Liquid, UK) Leah Hirsch (Ins;tute of Play & Quest to Learn School, USA) Toru Iiyoshi (Center for the Promo;on of Excellence in Higher Educa;on, Kyoto University, Japan) Francois Taddéi (Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, France); Fabiano Valerio (iDeal World, USA) Victor Van Rij (UNESCO Ins;tute for Informa;on Technologies in Educa;on, Netherlands) Tom Vander Ark (GefngSmart, USA) Stephan Vincent-‐Lancrin (Center for Educa;on Research & innova;on, OECD, France) Alan Webb (The Open Masters, USA) Gabriel Wilson (Design Your Stanford, USA) Andrew Whitworth (University of Manchester, UK) David Whyley (Learning Technologies, UK) Esther Wojcicki (Palo Alto High School, USA) Luping Xu (Tsinghua University, China) Georgeke Yakman (STEAM Educa;on, USA) Boris Yarmakhov (Google, Russia) Sarah Ikelson (USA) Alexandra Ivanovitch (Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, France) Dino Karabeg (University of Oslo, Norway) Maxim Kiselev (Skoltech Ins;tute, Russia) Vince Kohli (Biz Innovators, USA) Steven Korte (Pasco, USA) Richard Lang (Democrasog, USA) Alexander Laszlo (Buenos Aires Ins;tute of Technology, Argen0na) Anthony Mackay (Innova;on Unit & GELP, Australia) Fedor Marchenko (Higher School of Economics -‐ Ins;tute of Educa;on, Russia) Jason Meek (iDEAL World, USA) Karl Mehta (EdCast, USA) Cynthia Merchant (SAT Ins;tute, USA) Claudio Naranjo (SAT Ins0tute, USA & EU) Kathleen Ohm (Planning Center, Associa;on of California School Administrators, USA) Ken Oker (Saint Mary's College of California, USA) Jack Park (TopicQuests Founda;on, USA) Anna Peplova (Thear;ka project, Russia) Dmitry Peskov (Agency for Strategic Ini;a;ves, Russia) Marc Prensky (Global Future Educa;on Ins;tute, USA) Askar Ramazanov (Theories & Prac;ces Media, Russia) Alex Reben (MIT Media Lab, USA) Jim Ruddy (Learnosity, Ireland) Petr Schedrovitsky (G.P.Schedrovitsky Founda;on, Russia) Polina Schedrovitskaya (Mexico) Emily Schneider (Ly;cs Lab, Stanford University, USA) Makhew Shapiro (Social Planetarium Ini;a;ve, USA) Jesse Sleamaker (School for Change, USA) Alexander Sidorkin (Higher School of Economics -‐ Ins;tute of Educa;on, Russia) Alexey Sitnikov (Skoltech Ins;tute, Russia)
- 64. 64 GEF California: List of Moderators & Organizers GEF California OrganizaQon Team Pavel Luksha Director / Report Author Kris0na Kashfullina Report Analyst Tatyana Pirog Administra0ve Director Olga Duka Communica0on Manager Pavel Surkov Communica0on Manager Lyudmila Arnaut Travel Manager Katerina Luksha Content Manager Boris Yarmakhov Social Media Communica0on GEF California FacilitaQon Team Pavel Luksha Team leader Darshan Elena Campos Facilitator, Global Learning Plaorms Vladimir Sinelnikov Facilitator, Global Learning Plaorms Kennan Salinero Facilitator, Models of Knowledge Crea0on Timour Shchoukine Facilitator, Models of Knowledge Crea0on Simone Tiesinga-‐Poutnik Facilitator, Learning for Emerging Social Prac0ces Kris0na Kashfullina Facilitator, Learning for Emerging Social Prac0ces Kathia Laszlo Facilitator, Resilient Ci0es & Communi0es Dmitry Sudakov Facilitator, Resilient Ci0es & Communi0es
- 65. 65 GEF California: List of Supporters Project operator Key sponsors of GEF California Support also provided by