Georgia Southeastern Solar Summit Keynote
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The document outlines how Georgia can lead the global energy transformation by embracing solar and battery technologies as the primary electricity source. It emphasizes the state's past achievements in energy innovation and the need for local, small-scale actions to overcome barriers to change. Recommendations include expanding solar capacity and streamlining regulations to enhance Georgia's position as an energy-tech leader.
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$0.143
Wind [1]
Solar PV [1]
Wind
Natural Gas
Solar PV
Nuclear
New Coal
Clean coal
Cost per kilowatt hour (w/o tax credits)
Solar and
Wind are now
the lowest
cost way to
generate
electricity
Cost per kilowatt hour (with tax credits)
All data from US Govt reporting March 2018
Other sources put solar at lower costs
[1] Clean energy tax credits are set to expire by 2021](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/gasolarsummitkeynotev1-181028104933/85/Georgia-Southeastern-Solar-Summit-Keynote-5-320.jpg)
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Georgia Southeastern Solar Summit Keynote
- 1. How Georgia Can Help Lead the Global Energy Transformation BILL NUSSEY, CEO OF FREEING ENERGY AND SOLAR INVENTIONS
- 2. Two big ideas 1. Solar + battery will become the largest source of electricity 2. Georgia can and should become the global energy tech leader • Our state is in a far better position than many people realize • But, we have to break the “innovator’s dilemma” and think local and act small
- 3. 1. How can solar possibly become the largest part of the grid mix?
- 4. Megatrends driving the grid transformation 1. Price of natural gas falling below coal 2. Plummeting costs of solar, wind, and batteries 3. Growing public demand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 4. Increased availability of sensors and fine- tuned grid controls 5. Replacing retiring coal and nuclear plants 6. Rise of electric vehicles 7. Increasing threats from extreme weather 8. Threat of cyberattacks on the grid The grid transformation looks like: • Decentralized • Decarbonized • Digitized These go beyond subsidies and short-term politics. Government intervention can slow it down or speed these up and, in particular, it can help ensure its region is among the leaders and not the laggards.
- 5. $0.037 $0.046 $- $- $0.048 $0.049 $0.059 $0.090 $0.101 $0.143 Wind [1] Solar PV [1] Wind Natural Gas Solar PV Nuclear New Coal Clean coal Cost per kilowatt hour (w/o tax credits) Solar and Wind are now the lowest cost way to generate electricity Cost per kilowatt hour (with tax credits) All data from US Govt reporting March 2018 Other sources put solar at lower costs [1] Clean energy tax credits are set to expire by 2021
- 6. How are generation sources trending? NUCLEAR US regulatory costs will keep nuclear uncompetitive. Public concerns limit political support. 90% of fuel comes from outside US. Stalled. COAL Pollution & CO2 concerns have led to increasing costs. Clean coal pilots have largely failed to date. Will continue declining in US. HYDRO The original clean energy. Lowest cost but few remaining viable locations for expansion. Small growth. WIND Costs will continue decreasing as turbines get larger. But, scale benefits will slow as turbines get too large. Bright future. SOLAR PV The biggest winner of all. See next… NATURAL GAS Swiss Army knife of power. Baseload. Peaker. Lowest cost of all generation. Complements intermittent clean energy. Bright future.
- 7. Solar costs will continue dropping faster and longer than any other generation source 1. Solar is a technology, not a fuel 2. Economies of volume beat out economies of scale 3. Solar can piggyback existing investments to lower costs 4. Solar will plants will last for decades longer than their warranties 5. There is an amazing amount of solar technology yet to come
- 8. Solar is a technology, not a fuel. Solar cells benefit from the economics as microchips and hard drives. The cost of solar has dropped 300x over the last 40 years... … and it will continue dropping $0.23 per watt $76 per watt
- 9. Economies of volume will beat out economies of scale. The economics of scale peaked out for coal and nuclear plants around 2003. After that, average plant size started shrinking again. Solar and batteries benefit from both scale and volumes.
- 10. Only solar can piggyback existing infrastructure investments Solar windows, solar paint, solar roadways, solar parking lots… and solar shingles.
- 11. Solar will outlast its warranties. There is still decades of solar innovation yet to come Solar projects are fully paid off on or before the 20 year warranty expires. Yet most 30-40 year old solar panels continue to operate. All the electricity generated after they’re paid for is essentially free. Perovskites, quantum dots, new string designs, new panel designs.
- 12. New technology is always more expensive than the incumbents. But, if it looks like the new tech can get cheaper, it probably will. Vacuum tubes changed the world and launched an era of automation and computation. Transistors were more expensive and less reliable for years. But their underlying architecture was simpler and they ultimately became millions of times cheaper than tubes. Source: http://www.cpu-world.com/CPUs/8008/die/L_Intel-C8008.jpg
- 13. Where is solar’s cost today? COSTOFSOLAR TIME Environmental Subsidized Cheapest Abundance YOU ARE HERE
- 14. Solar’s largest challenge: Intermittency ? Sunny Rainy Easy Nighttime Predictable Daily Cycle Unpredictable Weekly Cycle Winter Predictable Seasonal Cycle
- 15. A look at the stunning price decline of batteries ** Note that these prices do not include electronics and other balance of system costs
- 16. As solar and battery costs decline, they will quickly become cheaper than grid power TIME Solar Costs COSTS 3-5 YEARS YOU ARE HERE Commercial Rate 9.6 cents Residential Rate 12.3 cents 5-8 YEARS
- 17. What are the implications as solar and batteries continue getting cheaper? Future 5 - 8 years Future 3 - 5 years Today Battery Capacity cost per kWh $600 $400 $200 Cycles 3,000 4,000 5,000 Charge depth 80% 80% 80% Cost per 1 kWh charge $0.16 $0.08 $0.032 Solar Cost per 1 kWh (LCOE) $0.07 $0.06 $0.05 Total cost per kWh $0.23 $0.14 $0.08 $200 Battery deals are already being done at $100 today Costs and specifications are illustrative only. They are not formal forecasts or predictions. Lower than most commercial electric rates
- 18. What gives Georgia a shot at being an energy-tech leader?
- 19. Georgia isn’t afraid to defy the status quo Plant Vogtle: The only new nuclear plant in the US Plant Scherer: The highest CO2 emitting plant in the US Georgia is #1 for consuming biomass to power the grid
- 20. Georgia has the spirit of an energy leader
- 21. FIRST COMMERCIAL SOLAR PANEL IN THE WORLD Bell Labs installed the first commercial solar panel in Americus Georgia in October 1955. It was called the Solar Battery because it replaced expensive and short lived chemical batteries at remote locations in the telephone infrastructure. 1955
- 22. FIRST LARGE SCALE SOLAR PLANT IN THE WORLD Built in Coweta Country in the late 1970’s, the Solar Total Energy Project (STEP) was the world’s first and largest solar thermal cogeneration project. 1979
- 23. LARGEST ROOFTOP SOLAR IN THE WORLD,1996 As part of the 1996 Olympic aquatic center, Georgia Power helped build the then largest rooftop solar array. 1996
- 24. TOP EV OWNERSHIP OF ANY STATE, 2014 Thanks to some generous tax incentives, Georgia was crowned the kind of electric vehicles in 2014 – with more cars than any other state. 2014
- 25. FIRST SOLAR ROADWAY PILOT IN THE U.S. As part of “The Ray”, a 16 mile stretch of highway 85 in Southwestern Georgia, the nation’s first solar-panel-paved highway was built to test the effectiveness of this new technology. 2017 Courtesy: https://www.curbed.com/2017/2/6/14521102/highway-the-ray-solar-power-transportation
- 26. LARGEST SOLAR PANEL FACTORY IN THE U.S. Whitfield Country Georgia will soon be home to the largest solar module factory in the United States. Hanwha Q-cells has committed to building a module manufacturing plant larger than 1.6 gigawatts. 2019
- 27. ONE OF THE FIRST SMART NEIGHBOR- HOODS IN THE WORLD Atlanta will soon have one of the first communities in the world planned, from the ground up, to have every residence be powered by residential solar and batteries. 2019
- 28. GEORGIA HAS SOME MAJOR ENERGY SMARTS Georgia Tech has some of the world’s leading research projects and grant recipients. The university’s research has led to some of the most widely used technologies in the energy and solar industry. GE Power (formerly GE Energy) had its world headquarters in Atlanta for many years.
- 29. What will it take for Georgia to become a global energy- tech leader?
- 30. 1. Keep doing what we’re already doing well The 2019 IRP is an opportunity for Georgia to continue its solar momentum 1. Keep adding utility scale solar 2. Expand community solar programs 3. Open offers for smaller scale solar plants 4. Streamline regulations, filings, interconnections, to slash soft costs and lower prices
- 31. 2. Think local, act small “First, disruptive products are simpler and cheaper; they generally promise lower margins, not greater profits. Second, disruptive technologies typically are first commercialized in emerging or insignificant markets. And third, leading firms’ most profitable customers generally don’t want, and indeed initially can’t use, products based on disruptive technologies.” ― Clayton M. Christensen
- 32. History tells us that most innovation is driven by outsiders – mavericks and renegades who don’t understand the status quo This is what happens when the vertically integrated incumbents control the innovation cycle This is what happens when outsiders and entrepreneurs are allowed participate in the market.
- 33. 2. Think local, act small Policy recommendations • Grid as backup tariff – no export – copy Hawaii • Create a clean energy kickers for opportunity zones Business / startup recommendations • Transactive town / campus • Energy-tech incubator – search the world for the smartest people and bring them to Georgia • Copy China’s playbook for winning in solar – supply chain and talent
- 34. “It’s time for the power industry to be a technology business again” -- Jim Rogers, retired CEO of Duke Energy
Editor's Notes
- #26: https://www.curbed.com/2017/2/6/14521102/highway-the-ray-solar-power-transportation