Download to read offline
![10 Global Food Security and Supply
stated the following in 2013 for achieving an MDG1 Target
of halving the number undernourished people since 1990:15
The [revised results imply that the] Millennium Develop-
ment Goal (MDG) target of halving the prevalence of
undernourishment in the developing world by 2015 is
within reach, if appropriate actions are taken to reverse the
slowdown since 2007/08.
This Target is one of 21, and it is part of the first Goal, and
it is fraught with controversy because of the period between
2005 and 2008, which saw a new phase of development in
the global food system that exposed fragility in supply.
This was due to the demand for agricultural products from
national economies that had globalised since the 1990s and
most notably resulted in food price increases in 2010 that
had significant impact on the world food system.16
Changes
in food price and affordability have severe impacts on the
number of people experiencing hunger, and the price
spikes of 2010 resulted in hundreds of millions of people
experience poverty or extreme poverty.17
Globalisation of
the food supply chain shown in Figure 1.1, produced
changes in consumption, tastes and society that had dra-
matic impact of where agricultural commodities were
traded and what they used for.18,19
As such, the MDGs
begin to describe the complexity of what food security is
because they not only highlight the supply of resources to
eradicate poverty and hunger, but also consider access to,
safety of and education regarding the use of natural
resources. The 2012 FAO report, ‘The State of Food Insecu-
rity in the World’, which is published annually states the
following.20
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 presents
new estimates of the number and proportion of undernour-
ished people going back to 1990, defined in terms of the
distribution of dietary energy supply. With almost 870](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/75944-250228204028-4bfec65a/75/Global-food-security-and-supply-1st-Edition-Wayne-Martindale-39-2048.jpg)
![20 Global Food Security and Supply
millions of lives, with the World Food Prize Foundation
stating the following, which demonstrates the value of
extending the actions taken by crop scientists to the saving
of human life by alleviating hunger.
Because of his [Dr Norman Borlaug’s] achievements to
prevent hunger, famine and misery around the world, it is
said that Dr. Borlaug has “saved more lives than any other
person who has ever lived.”35
What Borlaug did was to show a clear way of alleviating
food supply limits by improving agricultural productivity.
The rule base for doing this was relatively simple in that
agriculture should be fit-for-purpose in specific environ-
ments that have different climate, soils and needs. If we
consider the words of Dr Daniel Hillel, who was awarded
the 2012 World Food Prize, in his book Out of the Earth, it
is clear that these things often overlooked:
All terrestrial life depends on soil and water. So common-
place and seemingly abundant are these elements that we
tend to treat them contemptuously.36
The World Food Prize does provide an indicator of change
with regard to tackling many of the challenges the food
system places before us. Tackling the food insecurity that
has limited the ability of humankind to ease conflict and
the unsustainable use of natural resources entails using
multidisciplinary approaches. The World Food Prize
reflects this with the Laureates being from the policy,
agronomy, biotechnology, and human health arenas.35
Development of new crop varieties and methods of
growing crops feature strongly in the list of Laureates,
along with those that are focused on the policy and politi-
cal development of efficient supply chains. This demon-
strates the duality of achieving food security in that the
limitation of the supply function can be alleviated by](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/75944-250228204028-4bfec65a/75/Global-food-security-and-supply-1st-Edition-Wayne-Martindale-49-2048.jpg)
![Amazed at the sight of the stupendous citadel, Biff did not tell his
Uncle Charlie and Barma Shah about his near-plunge from the
icefall.
Instead, he reminded them of his mission:
"The sooner we get over there, the quicker we will find my father."
Both men agreed, but Barma Shah added, "You will have to see
the Grand
Lama first."
That was the part that worried Biff most, though he didn't say so.
Now that he was practically at his goal, he felt shakier than ever, for
the Chonsi Lama now represented power on a vast scale,
considering the size of his secret stronghold.
The party continued down the granite trail, which zigzagged to the
bottom of the canyon and there crossed a deep but narrow stream
on a bridge of simple logs. At the other side, they came to a great
wall, where gates were being swung wide to receive them. They
were ushered in by lesser lamas and other dignitaries, all wearing
robes and costumes of an ancient day.
[Illustration: There, across the mile-deep gorge, was the Lost City
of
Chonsi]
With Hurdu and the porters following, they were conducted up
outer steps, then deep beneath a portico and up more steps until
they reached a magnificently tiled inner courtyard, where they were
bowed to rows of benches. An elderly lama approached and
gestured to Biff, as he said, "You may come."](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/75944-250228204028-4bfec65a/75/Global-food-security-and-supply-1st-Edition-Wayne-Martindale-57-2048.jpg)
![were Mr. Brewster, Biff, Chandra, and Kamuka, all of whom could
give first-hand evidence concerning the double dealings of the
notorious Bela Kron.
Charles Keene was then to fly back to the Sherpa valley and pick
up Muscles, Li, Chuba, and Mike Arista, to bring them on to New
Delhi, where all the boys would meet again. But as the plane
climbed high above the mountain pass, thoughts of a more
immediate reunion flashed through Biff's mind and brought an
anticipatory smile to his lips.
By the time they reached New Delhi, Biff's mother would be there
from Darjeeling, with the twins. Eyes half closed, Biff could already
picture the eager faces of Ted and Monica as his brother and sister
waited breathlessly to hear the full story of his latest adventures!
[Illustration: Endpapers]
Transcriber's Notes
—Copyright notice provided as in the original—this e-text is public
domain in the country of publication.
—Provided a cover based on elements from the book, provided for
free and unrestricted use with this eBook.
—Silently corrected palpable typos; left non-standard spellings and
dialect unchanged.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/75944-250228204028-4bfec65a/75/Global-food-security-and-supply-1st-Edition-Wayne-Martindale-70-2048.jpg)
Global food security and supply 1st Edition Wayne Martindale
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- 5. Global food securityand supply 1st Edition Wayne Martindale Digital Instant Download Author(s): Wayne Martindale ISBN(s): 9781118699324, 1118699327 Edition: 1 File Details: PDF, 2.57 MB Year: 2014 Language: english
- 6. Global Food Security andSupply
- 7. Global Food Security andSupply Wayne Martindale Sheffield Business School Sheffield Hallam University UK
- 8. This edition firstpublished 2015 © 2015 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Registered office: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Editorial offices: 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, USA For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at website at www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell. The right of the author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author(s) have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. ISBN: 978-1-1186-9932-4 (paperback) A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Cover image: “World Map with Spices” © iStock/ susoy Set in 12/14 PalatinoLTStd-Roman by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited 1 2015
- 9. For my wife,Deborah, and my daughters, Minnie, Tula, and Timéa, who will continue to make the world a better place.
- 10. Contents About the Authorxiii Preface xv Introduction xix 1 The Basis for Food Security 1 1.1 Defining What Food Security Is and How Food Supply Chains Can Deliver It 1 1.2 The Convergence of Food Security Research, Economics, and Policy 6 1.3 The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 8 1.4 Measuring Hunger in a Changing World to Establish Security 11 1.5 The Undernutrition and Overnutrition Gap 13 1.6 The Supply Chain and Nutrition Gaps 15 1.7 The Relationship between Food Security and Biology 18 1.8 The Relationship between Food Security and Biotechnology 26 1.9 Genetic Diversity of Agricultural Crops and Livestock 28 1.10 Trade Agreements and the Development of Agricultural Supply 30 References 31 vii
- 11. viii Contents 2 UnderstandingFood Supply Chains 39 2.1 Current Methods of Assessing Food Supply Chain Efficiencies That Enable Food Security Projections 39 2.2 How Population Growth and Limiting Factors Define Demand and Food Security 40 2.3 Global Population Estimates and Projections 42 2.4 Consumption and Population Growth: Demonstrating the Impact of Dietary Changes and Transitions 44 2.5 Optimising Nutrition across Supply Chains Is the Focus of the Second Green Revolution 47 2.6 The Emergence of Sustainable Farming Reconnecting Supply Chains: A Case Study of the Establishment of the Landcare Movement in Australia 49 2.7 The Long-Term Field Experiments at Rothamsted and Their Power of Demonstrating Good Nutrient Balance in Agriculture Has Been Crucial to the Development of Sustainable Food Supply 50 2.8 Long-Term Field Experiments Hold Critical Data That Provide Our Understanding of Nutrient Flows in Farming Systems So That Sustainable Food Supply Chains Are Developed 52 2.9 The Sustainable Production of Livestock and Long-Term Data 55 2.10 The Historical Proof of the Value of Agricultural Innovations in Providing Food Security 56
- 12. Contents ix 2.11 TheRelationship between Field Trials, Investments, and Innovation 61 References 62 3 The Scientific Basis for Food Security 69 3.1 The Supply of Essential Plant Nutrients 69 3.2 Plant Nutrients and Phytonutrients in the Food Supply Chain: Establishing a Nutritional Understanding Using Human Trials 73 3.3 Biomass, the Base of the Supply Chain 77 3.4 The Interception of Light by Crop Canopies: How the Molecular Scale Impacts on Food Supply Chain Efficiency 79 3.5 The Requirement for Breeding New Crop Varieties and Selecting for Increased Sink Capacity of Crops 83 3.6 Photosynthetic Metabolism, the Biochemical Driver of Production 84 3.7 Environmental Stress Events and Their Impacts on Food Supply 86 3.8 The Principles of Integrated Management across the Food Chain: A Food Supply Chain Perspective 90 3.9 The Modern Agricultural System, the Dietary Interface, and Food Supply 91 References 93 4 The Sociological Basis for Food Security 97 4.1 Challenges and Solutions 97 4.2 Free Trade Transitions into Sustainability 101
- 13. x Contents 4.3 IncreasingFood Supplies Have Been a Major Achievement since 1975, but There Is Increased Resource Nationalism Evident by the Emergence of ‘National Interests in a Shrinking World’ 102 4.4 A Demonstration of Energy Balance and LCA for Sugar Production in Europe 110 4.5 Carbon Footprinting for Food Manufacturers Begins to Offer a Sustainability Reporting Framework 117 4.6 What Can We Do with Sustainability Assessments of Food Products? Using Carbon Footprint Data in Supply Chain Management 122 4.7 The Interactions between Affordability, Accessibility, and Food Security 124 4.8 Retail, Distribution, and Wholesale 131 4.9 Developing Diets for Improved Sustainability and Health Criteria 142 References 147 5 Challenges and Solutions 153 5.1 The Food System Challenge of This Century: Is a Sustainable Diet Now Defined? 153 5.2 Supply Chain Challenges: Integrating the LCA Approaches in Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Retail 159 5.3 Visualising the Data from the Food System Using GIS-LCA 164
- 14. Contents xi 5.4 TechnologyEnablers and Opportunities 167 References 172 6 The Future and Our Conclusion 177 6.1 The Future Food System 177 6.2 Our Conclusion 186 References 189 Index 191
- 15. About the Author DrWayne Martindale is a Research Director for MPC Research and an Editor for ‘Science Into’, an on-line maga- zine for food industry innovations. He is a leading figure in the food and agricultural industry for sustainability issues. Dr. Martindale has been an Organisation for Eco- nomic Co–operation and Development (OECD) Coopera- tive Research Programme Fellow, British Grassland Society Fellow for sustainable agricultural systems, and a Com- monwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisa- tion (CSIRO) McMaster fellow for sustainable food processing. Starting his scientific career as a biochemist at the University of Sheffield he then applied research with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Levington Agriculture Ltd where he established the first independent fertiliser industry technical information service for chartered agronomists. He has developed undergraduate and postgraduate programmes across the agri-food supply chain at the universities of Leeds, Shef- field, and Sunderland in the United Kingdom. He is also a research fellow in Corporate Social Responsibility at Sheffield Business School. See www.waynemartindale.com for his current research and updates. xiii
- 16. Preface For me, theroute to publishing this book started after I had delivered a conference for the Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development (OECD) Cooperative Research Programme at Royal Holloway and Bedford College at the University of London in September 2010. I was in the middle of an exciting McMaster Fellowship for the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia and the proceedings of the conference were published by the Association of Applied Biologists in the United Kingdom. All this activity led Andrew Harrison of Wiley to approach me to write a book on food security; it also led to me thinking I was so busy I would not go near such a project. After a few months of thinking about this and looking at the contributors to the proceedings of the London conference Mr. Harrison’s insight and tenacity has paid off in that I have written the book in front of you. The need for supply chain solutions to food security as always struck me as an essential part of getting to a secure and sustainable diet for 9 billion global citizens some 30 years into our future. Having worked in agriculture I was often surprised at a lack of connectivity to the food indus- try, and when I moved to work with the food industry I was shocked at the level of connectivity to agriculture. When the consumer is placed into this melting pot of con- flicts there are naturally pressures and misunderstandings concerned with the sustainability of foods. I believe the food industry has responded to integrating supply chains; there were always examples of these practices but they have become common place even if they are often out of sight from the consumer. This book has tackled the issue xv
- 17. xvi Preface of foodsecurity pressures operating at global levels and relates them to the operations of the food supply chain and how we put meals together to eat. The subject matter is wide-ranging and there is much I have left out of this book, but I hope to have achieved a balance of informing those who are interested, strengthening the understandings of those in the food industry, and allowing the reader to focus on sustainable solutions. My book is aimed at those who have an understanding of how the food supply chain behaves and who want to know more. It will guide undergraduate students as well as the informed reader and established expert of food sus- tainability. I have strived to achieve a generalist approach while not losing understanding that is developed by my expert experience of teaching agriculture, sustainability, and food manufacturing to a wide range of students. I would like to thank the team at Wiley who have effi- ciently guided the processing of my manuscript. I would also like to thank the people who have supported me and discussed several issues regarding the food security debate with me, including Adam Bedford at the National Farmers Union (NFU) in Brussels, Chandru Chandrasekhar of Sustein Ltd, Alan Marson of New Food Innovation Ltd, Professor Tim Benton at University of Leeds, Dr Murray Clark of Sheffield Business School, and Dr Martin L Warnes of Ipswich High School. This book is largely a product of the friendship and comradeship I have experienced and the sum of my curiosity that started growing up in Suffolk roaming the Stour Valley around Great Cornard and Sudbury. There are numerous key characters who helped my route to authoring this book, too numerous to mention, but Dr Ian Richards, who was Managing Director at Lev- ington Agriculture Ltd; Professor Peter Lillford CBE, who was a Chief Scientist at Unilever; and Jay Sellahewa, at CSIRO, have had major parts to play in helping me to gain the confidence to put forward ideas and applications in this arena. Finally, a massive heartfelt thank goes to my
- 18. Preface xvii wife, Deborah,and my children, Minnie, Tula, and Timéa Alred-Martindale, and also to Lloyd and Rose Ashton, who never stop inspiring me. Dr Wayne Martindale Barnsley, UK September 2014
- 19. Introduction A Reflection onWhy We Should Care about Food Security I am sitting on Oxley Bank in the United Kingdom, which is part of the Bretton Estate, which since 1977 has been the Yorkshire Sculpture Park and a deer or hunting park for a thousand years before that. It is a mid-August morning looking west out over a working landscape of West Yorkshire towards Huddersfield where, in the dis- tance, the Emley Moor telecommunications mast, which is over 300m in height, serves to mark where I am heading. In the foreground landscape, there is a patch- work of oilseed canola, forage maize, and pasture crops in various stages of production. A small herd of 30 dairy Holstein cows grazes one of the fields near me that is just beginning to ‘burn-off’, that is, to dry out and turn brown in the late summer sun. This landscape is an idyllic view of the countryside in the United Kingdom; there is relative quiet, even though the M1 motorway, one of our main arterial routes through the country, is 3km behind me in a valley, with the Bretton Lake sur- rounded by beech trees. The landscape is working with dairying, tourism, intellectual wealth, arable farming, forestry, and wind turbines, and a cluster of small busi- ness workshops in the near distance provides a constant purr of metalworking machinery. This is a productive- landscape worked by agricultural activities that has moved with the times in European terms. My thoughts are of being pleased to be here and this turns my attention to the food security debate because for one I have to return home and write this book, but also I xix
- 20. xx Introduction have constantlyquestioned how real can the food security threat be since 1975, when I first saw an essay by Indira Gandhi, which I will refer to in this book.1 From my vantage point here looking out of what is clearly a well- regulated and managed landscape that provides most of my needs for an acceptable quality of life, it seems an abstract issue. Here I sit on a rural earth bank in West Yorkshire topped by a wire frame sculpture that people climb through and think playful or intellectual thoughts in a landscape that provides work, food, and social capital, but the global food system is on a precipice of shortage and limitation. I am told this, and it is my job to make sense of data and statistics that can evidence stresses and strains in a world food system. What I have come to understand is that food is a very specialized consumer good in that it provides health and pleasure and its time as a food product is extremely transient. Relating this transience to high-level issues of land production, resource limitation, and global shortage of food is extremely dif- ficult because ultimately we have to consider constraint in terms of reducing volumes consumed or reduction in access. This has been achieved in recent years by increases in food prices, which have focused discussions on food security in Europe as never before. The 1970s and 1980s hunger and security issues were driven by individuals such as Indira Gandhi, Willy Brandt, and Gro Harlem Brundtland, and evidence provided by commentators took a Malthus-like view of world situation. In Europe we now experience potential food insecurity directly through pricing and access to high quality food and diets.2,3 The productivity of the landscape in Northwestern Europe is one of the key reasons it is so difficult to convey the need for food awareness and security to family, friends, and colleagues. I have grown up in these land- scapes that have had agricultural production supported and guided by government support and industrial
- 21. Introduction xxi investment. Thesituation is similar to the landscapes of Australia and the United States I have visited, where the support provided for a farming industry may be different but it still exists in some form. I know that this view may not be in line with everyone’s thinking on the matter, particularly the issue of direct government support for farming. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agri- cultural Policy (CAP) is an important part of the Euro- pean Commission (EC) spending, as is the Farm Bill in the United States.4,5 The Impact of Changing Worldviews The idea of a working landscape that provides many functions beyond agricultural production has not always been a typical one. An incredibly influential piece of work for my students and myself of the time when Europe was considering the value of the whole food supply chain was written by Professor Jules Pretty in the late 1990s, titled The Living Land, which provided a view of changing agriculture in Europe.6 These ideas were effectively pack- aged in the United Kingdom by the government’s report ‘Reconnecting the Food Chain’ chaired by Lord Donald Curry of Kirkharle and known as ‘The Curry Report’.7 This time of change was one where we began to look at the whole food supply chain rather than thinking only of agricultural production or food manufacturing in isola- tion. In this environment of change, Jules Pretty’s analy- sis developed the directions of many farmers I taught and convinced them to follow what became active and world-changing roles in world agriculture. The transition in agriculture at that time was one of coming from pro- duction-focused agriculture to one that included social and environmental value on equal footing with profitable agriculture.
- 22. xxii Introduction Decoupling Productionand Profit The landscapes across Europe and the world have under- gone a revolution in many ways during this period because of the need to consider the food supply chain beyond agri- cultural functions. This has important implications for the global food system that started with the first programmes aimed at curtailing agricultural overproduction in Europe appeared in the late 1980s. These were the so-called set- aside schemes, whereby farmers would place fields into a resting period or fallow voluntarily and receive a payment for doing so.8 The focus of this set-aside scheme was to reduce agricultural production but it soon emerged that there were conservation and leisure benefits to set aside and they evolved into environmental stewardship schemes.9,10 The schemes themselves became associated with different forms of integrated agriculture because it has been shown that enhancing biodiversity on farms is associated with pest management strategies, and main- taining soil fertility was associated with improved plant nutrition and water management. In short, a range of ben- efits became apparent, and this approach not only changed farming practice in a time when agricultural produce prices and farm input prices for fertiliser and feed were depressed but also changed how farmers and producers thought about their businesses. There was a transition from a pri- marily food production mindset or rather one of produc- ing food ingredients to one of being part of a rural landscape. This meant integrating social awareness in terms of fairness, ethical production, tourism, and leisure within farming and food businesses. Food is made more affordable with a productive agri- cultural system. The agricultural framework for this does not develop by increasing yield and quality attributes alone. The Living Land laid the ground for this, and in many ways, Professor Pretty’s vision for 1990s agriculture in the United Kingdom was proven correct.
- 23. Introduction xxiii Wider Changesin the Food System Individuals have had incredible impact in bringing the principles of general sustainability to policy development. An example is John Elkington, who has transformed how large organizations think about sustainability through the triple bottom line approach described in his book, Canni- bals with Forks, which I first read in 1999.11 The triple bottom line approach put forward by Elkington has transformed how senior officers of companies view future business with regard to value and values across the social agenda.12 This is becoming evident with a 2010 Accenture survey of 766 chief executives worldwide: 93% see sustainability as important for the future of their businesses; 88% accept that they must drive new requirements through their supply chains; and 81% say they have already integrated sustainability into their businesses.13 These surveys are now commonplace, and people like Elkington have helped the global arena define the sustainability problems facing them and what they need to do about them. It is not sur- prising that people like Elkington, who came from an activist background in environmentalism, are now asking for accelerated change. Activists do not like to wait or see ineffective actions that achieve very little; they are disruptive. This is a major criti- cism that is currently facing international organizations that have developed major events, such as the Rio Confer- ences, and international protocols that are not without suc- cesses. These include the Montreal Protocol to reduce halogenated refrigerants, identified as the root cause of the growing ozone hole observed at the South Pole in the 1980s.14 The Basel Convention developed international standards for the trade in waste materials, providing further requirements for businesses to act responsibly with regard to polluting impacts.15 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the 1990s established the requirement to define the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG)
- 24. xxiv Introduction emissions, andthis now packages several aspects of how businesses procure and utilize resources.16 These actions have defined the issues we now face extremely well, and this book presents solutions to many of the issues they identify that are being delivered to the food arena by com- panies and their supply chains. It is clear that materials and foods are becoming scarcer, and many are considered critical resources. The way in which we measure reserves of materials is always debatable, but organizations are taking actions that will deal with scenarios of critical resource availability. For example, the concept of ‘peak resources’ is well estab- lished for oil and phosphorus resources, and the peak scenarios are clearly dependant on exploration for new reserves; calculations typically consider the reserves of 30 years into the future.17 This results in revitalised pros- pecting and exploration for resources each 30 years. This situation exists for most resources and should be borne in mind for our analyses here. For example, the impact of new technologies and new management systems can improve efficiencies of use or find new routes to con- serve wastes. What has become apparent for critical resources is that the quality of material found during exploration has decreased. This is the case for iron ore, for example, where a 1% decrease in iron ore results in more energy required extracting steel and significant costs in recovering ore. Together with peak scenarios, there are useful analogies we can make with food supply because similar scenarios are seen for high-quality land, which is ultimately the primary resource for food production. There is clear evi- dence of land trading or ‘land grabbing’ activities for biomass, biofuel, and agricultural food production since the 1990s, and the ability for land to provide efficient nutri- ent balance or protein production is under increasing stress. Resources that are currently considered to be at points of criticality in the global food system include water
- 25. Introduction xxv and phosphorus.18,19 Watersupplies are most stressed in parts of the world where crop production is or is likely to be most important, and they are most susceptible to the impact of temperature and precipitation changes that are the outcome of long-term climate change. Resource regeneration and closed-loop thinking are most definitely subjects that are dominating the mining industry where the use of metals in consumer goods has identified both its criticalities and opportunities. The sce- nario for the critical metals arena is important to us because there are important cross-considerations for food supply globally; the issues of ‘resource nationalism’ that have become apparent are also emerging in the food system with water and land resources. The requirement to consider using materials such as protein more effi- ciently is as apparent as the global metals system, but in order to do this, new business models, such as those that Elkington and others have established, are needed. For example, in the case of metal supply, there is more gold in one cubic metre of mobile phones that are disposed of at the end of their product life than there is in a cubic metre of gold ore currently mined.20 The problem faced by the electronic consumer goods industry is being able to recover gold and other metals, particularly rare earth metals, efficiently and cost-effectively. The possibility to generate geoeconomic conflict has been seen by restricting the trade of rare earth metals by China in the period 2005– 2009, where prices of rare earths increased dramatically.21 This response is termed ‘resource nationalism’, but it is something that has existed for centuries and it ultimately forces industries to consider new relationships, methods, and materials. In short, resource criticality can be debated in terms of geopolitical and geoeconomic factors, but it is stimulating innovation that aims to overcome current limits to supply; the same is true for all natural resources, and this type of critical thinking has important impacts on food supply chains.
- 26. xxvi Introduction The FoodSystem In the food system, we have seen criticality expressed by companies and their supply chain through the prospecting and use of phosphorus, water, and land. However, the food system itself is somewhat different from the other primary industry of mining for materials in that there are fewer opportunities for regenerating stock in supply chains because foods are ultimately digested. Of course, the recy- cling of minerals and nutrients are integral to any food production system and were perhaps the first recycling industries as identified by Lawes and Gilbert of Rotham- sted, who are discussed later. Furthermore, the use of man- ufacturing and retailing infrastructures associated with a sustainable food supply chain are largely transferrable glo- bally because of efficient logistics. Establishing sustainabil- ity in the food system does depend on trade and trade routes, and these are experiencing huge change globally, particularly in response to establishing trade in the Indian Ocean and the rise of the middle class associated with the growth of China and other emergent and emerging economies. The Future of Food Thus, this book places the importance of obtaining a supply chain approach in tackling food security and sus- tainable food supply where technical and social factors are integrated to provide solutions. The technical break- throughs that will provide novel nutrition, safety, and design attributes of products will need to be integrated with consumption trends and a very clear understanding of how consumers taste and experience foods. For ex ample, the use of genomics technologies that will provide libraries of materials to work with must be developed with a very good understanding of how consumers use
- 27. Introduction xxvii and consumefood products. This requires the capacity to assess increased amounts of information, and the need to use methods that visualize and provide a framework for information to be applied to security challenges will be increasingly important. In this book, the use of geographi- cal methods and life cycle assessment (LCA) approaches are put forward as a means to help companies deal with the issue of analysing large and complex datasets in their supply chains. References 1 Gandhi, I. (1975). A world without want. Encyclopaedia Bri- tannica Book of the Year 1975 (pp. 6–17). Chicago: Ency- clopaedia Britannica Inc. 2 Independent Commission on International Develop- ment Issues, & Brandt, W. (1983). Common crisis North- South: cooperation for world recovery. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 3 World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). Our common future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 4 Lowe, P., Buller, H., & Ward, N. (2002). Setting the next agenda? British and French approaches to the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy. Journal of Rural Studies, 18(1), 1–17. 5 Moyer, W., & Josling, T. (2002). Agricultural policy reform: politics and process in the EU and US in the 1990s. Alder- shot: Ashgate Publishing Ltd. 6 Pretty, J. (1999). The living land: agriculture, food and community regeneration in the 21st century. London: Earthscan. 7 Curry, D. (2002). Farming and food: a sustainable future (the Curry Report). London: Report of the Policy Com- mission on the Future of Farming and Food, UK Cabinet Office. 8 Bignal, E. M. (1998). Using an ecological understand ing of farmland to reconcile nature conservation
- 28. xxviii Introduction requirements, EUagriculture policy and world trade agreements. Journal of Applied Ecology, 35(6), 949–954. 9 Robinson, R. A., & Sutherland, W. J. (2002). Post-war changes in arable farming and biodiversity in Great Britain. Journal of applied Ecology, 39(1), 157–176. 10 Sutherland, W. J. (2002). Restoring a sustainable countryside. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 17(3), 148–150. 11 Elkington, J. (1997). Cannibals with forks. Oxford: Capstone. 12 Elkington, J. (1998). Partnerships from cannibals with forks: the triple bottom line of 21st-century business. Environmental Quality Management, 8(1), 37–51. 13 Elkington, J. (2010). Agenda for a sustainable future. Cheng, W., & Mohamed, S. (Eds.). (2010). The World that Changes the World: How Philanthropy, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Are Transforming the Social Ecosystem, pp 359–371. John Wiley & Sons. 14 Velders, G. J., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W., & McFarland, M. (2007). The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(12), 4814–4819. 15 Kummer, K. (1992). The international regulation of trans- boundary traffic in hazardous wastes: the 1989 Basel Convention. The International and Comparative Law Quar- terly, 41(03), 530–562. 16 Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O., & Schipper, E. L. (2002). From impacts assessment to adaptation pri- orities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate policy, 2(2), 145–159. 17 Bardi, U. (2009). Peak oil: the four stages of a new idea. Energy, 34(3), 323–326. 18 Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., & Lammers, R. B. (2000). Global water resources: vulnerability from climatechangeandpopulationgrowth.Science,289(5477), 284. 19 Cordell, D., Drangert, J. O., & White, S. (2009). The story of phosphorus: global food security and food for thought. Global environmental change, 19(2), 292–305.
- 29. Introduction xxix 20 Reller,A.,Bublies,T.,Staudinger,T.,Oswald,I.,Meisharp- ner,S., & Allen, M. (2009). The mobile phone: powerful communicator and potential metal dissipator. GAIA-Eco- logical Perspectives for Science and Society, 18(2), 127–135. 21 Du, X., & Graedel, T. E. (2011). Global in-use stocks of the rare earth elements: a first estimate. Environmental Science & Technology, 45(9), 4096–4101.
- 30. Global Food Securityand Supply, First Edition. Wayne Martindale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2015 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1 1.1 Defining What Food Security Is and How Food Supply Chains Can Deliver It This chapter will clarify many of the complex definitions of food security so that we can relate them to the food supply chain and food system. Our analysis will present the findings from research, agricultural field trials, and industrial case studies that have shaped the current food system. As previously described, food security is often a difficult attribute to describe adequately because it is the sum of many aspects of our lives. Food security is con- cerned not only with the immediate supply of protein and energy, but also the sustainable supply of a healthy diet that promotes well-being. While the immediate requirement for protein and energy is critical, security will also include what we experience as accessibility, affordability, and availability of foods when we consume them as meals and our diet.1 Indeed, an important view- point put forward in this book is that food security should consider all of us as consumers rather than recipi- ents of food. While this is a descriptive point, it is impor- tant to understand that food security is not only an issue of quantity, it has become an issue that is increasingly identified by quality of life and safety attributes that are delivered to consumers. The Basis for Food Security 1
- 31. 2 Global FoodSecurity and Supply In such a context, the food supply chain provides all the criteria necessary for food security, and this means the components of the supply chain must operate efficiently. Defining the components of supply and consumption is an important first step in understanding food supply chain efficiency. The food supply chain operations that make food security a possible goal are dependent on the produc- tion of ingredients and raw materials from agricultural operations and the development of food products by man- ufacturers and processors. A critical function of the food supply chain that is extremely variable and the focus of much attention because of the relationship to consumers is that of the distributor, wholesaler and retailer, who make sure that food is presented to the consumer. Thus, these agricultural, manufacturing, retailing and consumption aspects of the food supply chain can be presented as a series of four functions that are shown in Figure 1.1. The food supply chain functions will be discussed and investigated in further chapters, but the role of Figure 1.1 is to explain food supply with elements of simplicity that are the key to us developing ideas in the further chapters of this book. Naturally, the simplicity presented here is fine for expla- nation of principles, but when this supply chain model is applied to populations, it becomes very complex due to several other attributes associated with the impacts, serv- ices, and capital of businesses and consumers that require consideration. The supply chain shown is easy to under- stand, but projecting it to populations and millions of consumers means it becomes potentially impossible to visualise. The sheer scale of supply functions in popula- tions and the variance of inputs and outputs into food supply chains globally result in the need to consider the model presented in Figure 1.1 as a food system. Scientific and sociological research has provided evidence that shows how the development of food supply chains can result in the establishing of an understanding of what makes a food system sustainable.2 These ideas will be developed, but an
- 32. The Basis forFood Security 3 understanding of different types of inputs and outputs from the food system is central to the ideas put forward and critical in determining our perspective on food security. An important consideration for each part of a food supply chain as a producer; manufacturer and processor; retailer, distributor, and wholesaler; and a consumer is to consider where products are being made and where they are being used. Understanding these two parts of the supply chains is critical, and it has been traditionally defined by supply and demand functions that determine what consumer trends are evident. This view of supply chains has been established for centuries and as we will see it has now developed to consider other value aspects Figure 1.1. The food supply chain functions and food system. There are four functions to the supply chain scenario pre- sented here: producers; manufacturers and processors, dis- tributors, wholesalers, and retailers; and consumers. Inputs and outputs can be measured as a balance or LCA function at each function.This is a relatively simple model, but it becomes complex when applied to populations and several supply chains.
- 33. 4 Global FoodSecurity and Supply of goods at the end of the twenty-first century. These values are associated with social and environmental impacts, as well as economic wealth creation, and they have increas- ingly become coupled with criticality of supply for specific resources. That is, the supply and demand functions of supply chains must increasingly be affiliated with assess- ment of security of supply. This is true for most manufac- tured goods, it always has been, but new pressures have emerged to make an understanding of the ‘push or pull’ components in supply chains. These include rapidly chang- ing abundance of resources, geopolitical structures, price variability, price volatility, environmental impact, and health impact. Assessments of these attributes together can provide important world views on the risk of limited supply when they are blended with the consumer trends. Food supply chains provide the data concerned with mate- rial flows that enable the assessment of risk and uncer- tainty of ingredient and food supply. Thus, understanding where foods come from and where they are used allow us to project trends in consumption and allow us to develop strategies that deliver resilience in response to volatility and geo-political change. Identifying the attributes of supply chains that can deter- mine trends and criticality of supply are well characterised and have been for a significant period of time now. For example, the thought-provoking ‘Limits to Growth’ reports identified population growth, availability of natural resources, pollution, and capital investment in food supply chains as critical points in delivering sustainable global food supply.3 Whereas security assessment of supply chains is well developed for minerals and metals, it is perhaps less so for food products. The key players in pro- viding this assessment of security are those involved in the supply chain functions, that is, the producers, manufactur- ers, retailers, and consumers. Understanding price varia- bility and volatility of resources is crucial to developing trends and strategies for dealing with risk and uncertainty
- 34. The Basis forFood Security 5 associated with food supply. The time scales that are used can change our perspective on sustainability because many assessments will consider data from a time series of 5 years even though we might consider projections of decades into the future most important. Price data can be used for longer periods, and we should always consider the value of using longer term time series that are greater than a 5-year his- torical record.4 It is notable to observe the recent price spikes in food globally that augmented the current food security debate, and the value of using 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, or 100-year historical price series will provide different pro- jections for security.5 Thus, a consideration of the attributes we use to develop trends is just as critical as the time series we utilise to develop food security projections.6 The caveat placed by this study and book is that this cannot be done without considering the food supply chain due to the supply chain being both the provider for trend data and a source of innovation that enables the delivery of food products that consumers demand. Indeed, the need for organisations and businesses to rank the materials they utilise in terms of the risk associ- ated with supply has become more important since the food price spikes of 2005–2008, otherwise called the ‘perfect storm’ scenario.7 The perfect storm was a convergence of increased demand for livestock products and a diversifica- tion of agricultural biomass into liquid biofuels. This created price volatility and uncertain supply. In a similar way, the trade of steel used for industrial infrastructure and rare earth metals used in electronic goods experienced extreme price volatility at the same time. The price hikes have focused our thinking around security with regard to our considerations of sustainability and the amount of resource reserves that are available to food supply chains.8 That is, how much genetic biodiversity, useful land, miner- als, metals, and fossil fuels are available to produce food products. The current security debate has not only consid- ered quantity of food, but it has begun to consider the
- 35. 6 Global FoodSecurity and Supply quality attributes of food with nutrition that delivers well- being. That is, reductions in quality blended with increased production of biomass, ingredients, and food products may not provide the benefits we think because of the impact on energy consumption during manufacture and health impact after consumption. The consideration of closed loop economies has emerged from security crises, these are systems that eradicate or reduce waste from supply chains so that everything used to produce a product remains within the supply chain or linked with other supply chains. Closed-loop thinking is different for food products because it is usually consumed and cannot be re-eaten. However, food waste within supply chains is of critical importance to future security and sus- tainable supply. Furthermore, nutrients manufactured into food products can be recycled within the food system to support the production of biomass. Indeed, the production of composts and manures for agricultural systems is likely to have been our first experience of recycling materials several thousand years ago. We do increasingly know more detail about the environmental and social impacts of food products due to increased access to data that are either open sourced or peer reviewed. These show the emission factors and mass-flows for food ingredients and products. Thus, for the first time, we can now identify criticality points in food supply because of the economic impetus to do so. This can be integrated with measures of sustainability for the first time historically, and it is being done by food supply chains that will survive the ‘perfect storms’ of the future. 1.2 The Convergence of Food Security Research, Economics, and Policy Specific analytical methods are often employed to measure inputs and assess the impact of outputs from the food
- 36. The Basis forFood Security 7 system that traditionally identified economic and mass flows through the food system. This approach used to overlook social and environmental services, and this proved limiting for anyone who required a measure of current and future performance of the food system. There- fore, if we are to project future food security and sustain- ability taking a purely economic view based on production of foods, it would be a very fragile representation of the food system. The limits to such economic assessments were explored in a 1997 Nature paper by Professor Robert Costanza and colleagues, who estimated the ecosystem service worth of the globe to be two to three times that of the economic wealth.9 This paper changed the way we think about natural systems and the sustainability of the global food system; it has also extended our views on how food security could be delivered. The global policy- making environment established by the World Commis- sion on Environment and Development report ‘Our Common Future’ 10 years before demonstrated distinct convergence of views from policy and research on sustain- able natural resources.10 The ‘Our Common Future’ report established the United Nations (UN) Conference for Envi- ronment and Development or ‘Earth Summit’ and a set of targets for the new millennium known as Agenda 21. The paper by Costanza and colleagues provided an assessment of integrating the goals of sustainable development with the financial risk if we were not to meet sustainability targets that were increasingly being developed by policy- makers, and understanding this risk was critical to the future of humankind. The Costanza and colleagues’ Nature paper essentially stated that we should be very aware that inaction on sustainable development could be associated with trillions of dollars of risk and gave the following description in its opening statement: The services of ecological systems and the natural capital stocks that produce them are critical to the functioning of
- 37. 8 Global FoodSecurity and Supply the Earth’s life-support system. They contribute to human welfare, both directly and indirectly, and therefore represent part of the total economic value of the planet. This 1997 paper changed how we measured and assessed the food system, and it also related inaction on food secu- rity to very clear financial risks. This was important because the Costanza paper demonstrated that the growth of eco- nomic capital was clearly influenced by both social and natural capital. 1.3 The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) The convergence of research and policy research in food security resulted in the bold establishment of the Millen- nium Development Goals (MDGs), which is an interna- tional programme developed from approaches established in the ‘Our Common Future’ report in 1987. While the international landscape of agreement, conference, and commissions can seem unpractical, the dialogue they have established has changed from one of describing problems to one of achieving and meeting specific goals, which are shown in Figure 1.2. The first MDG aims ‘to eradicate poverty’, and it uses assessments of economic, social, and natural capital to identify how food insecurity can be alleviated in the world. The progress to the target is recorded, and this achieves an establishment of accountability. Thus, the MDG’s do provide the important starting point for our study of food security and supply utilising the ecosystem service approach. We are approaching the point where we know whether we can achieve the eight MDGs laid down for the global community in September 2000 during the Millen- nium Summit of the UN. This was one of the largest ever gatherings of heads of state, and they marked the new millennium by adopting the UN Millennium Declaration.11 This was endorsed by 189 countries, and it established a
- 38. The Basis forFood Security 9 roadmap for achieving the goals to be reached by 2015.12 Roadmaps have become important illustrative tools for policy development, which put forward agreed targets and suggested routes to obtaining them. The MDGs are important because they have provided targets and a new round of questioning the actual competencies of interna- tional efforts.13 The MDGs are important as they provide a standardised measure of progress towards food security that have been agreed by the members of the UN. These both provide a means to compare progress across nations, and it gives a form of consensus on what is required to provide food security. The MDG Target of halving those people experi- encing hunger is reported as ‘within reach’ in the UN MDG Report 201314 An important consideration of the MDGs is the spatial variation in attaining them, with sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia presenting the most acute areas for food security concern by being most at risk. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reports progress in reaching the MDGs, and they have Figure 1.2. The MDGs as described by the UN; the MDG 1, 4, 5, and 6 relate directly to issues of diet and sustainable nutri- tion for well-being. Source: Adapted from Road map toward the implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration. New York: United Nations, 2002. United Nations General Assembly Document A56/326.
- 39. 10 Global FoodSecurity and Supply stated the following in 2013 for achieving an MDG1 Target of halving the number undernourished people since 1990:15 The [revised results imply that the] Millennium Develop- ment Goal (MDG) target of halving the prevalence of undernourishment in the developing world by 2015 is within reach, if appropriate actions are taken to reverse the slowdown since 2007/08. This Target is one of 21, and it is part of the first Goal, and it is fraught with controversy because of the period between 2005 and 2008, which saw a new phase of development in the global food system that exposed fragility in supply. This was due to the demand for agricultural products from national economies that had globalised since the 1990s and most notably resulted in food price increases in 2010 that had significant impact on the world food system.16 Changes in food price and affordability have severe impacts on the number of people experiencing hunger, and the price spikes of 2010 resulted in hundreds of millions of people experience poverty or extreme poverty.17 Globalisation of the food supply chain shown in Figure 1.1, produced changes in consumption, tastes and society that had dra- matic impact of where agricultural commodities were traded and what they used for.18,19 As such, the MDGs begin to describe the complexity of what food security is because they not only highlight the supply of resources to eradicate poverty and hunger, but also consider access to, safety of and education regarding the use of natural resources. The 2012 FAO report, ‘The State of Food Insecu- rity in the World’, which is published annually states the following.20 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 presents new estimates of the number and proportion of undernour- ished people going back to 1990, defined in terms of the distribution of dietary energy supply. With almost 870
- 40. The Basis forFood Security 11 million people chronically undernourished in 2010–12, the number of hungry people in the world remains unaccepta- bly high. The FAO reported that the vast majority of these people live in developing countries, where about 850 million people, or in some cases close to 15% of the individual nation state populations, are estimated to be undernourished. 1.4 Measuring Hunger in a Changing World to Establish Security The Global Hunger Index (GHI) provides a descriptor of how we assess hunger, and it is published by the Interna- tional Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Concern Worldwide, and Welthungerhilfe.21 The 2012 GHI shows that progress in reducing the proportion of hungry people in the world is slow and hunger on a global scale remains ‘serious’. Twenty countries still have levels of hunger that are ‘alarming’ or ‘extremely alarming’. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa continue to have the highest levels of hunger. The 2012 GHI is the seventh year that IFPRI has calculated it, and the country averages represent variable data, so those countries classified as having ‘moderate’ or ‘serious’ hunger can have specific areas where the situa- tion is ‘alarming’ or ‘extremely alarming’. This has impor- tant implications for mapping food supply and security because the use of maps can effectively convey and describe variability in large data sets that include the social, cul- tural, and ecosystem attributes used to describe hunger.22,23 The development of the GHI and other measures associ- ated with food supply and security that take into account spatial variation within regions is likely to be an important future development. The resolution of food security data spatially is an important component of future food policy
- 41. 12 Global FoodSecurity and Supply and the deployment of actions that tackle food security. Naturally, population census data and the reporting of food supply statistics are critical to any measure of spatial variation, and the coverage of agricultural, food industry, and population census globally will limit these actions.24,25 Spatial variation of food security is not the only reason why measuring hunger is not straightforward. It can be described in many ways; as with food security, it is multi- dimensional. The GHI combines three equally weighted indicators that are broadly agreed upon across many organisations dealing with it and combines them as a single index. The three indicators that are combined are now described: 1. Undernourishment: The proportion of undernour- ished people as a percentage of the population (reflect- ing the share of the population with insufficient caloric intake). 2. Child underweight: The proportion of children younger than age five who are underweight (i.e., have low weight for their age, reflecting wasting, stunted growth, or both), which is one indicator of child undernutrition. 3. Childmortality: Themortalityrateofchildrenyounger than age five (partially reflecting the fatality of inade- quate caloric intake and unhealthy environments). The GHI aims to provide insight into the nutrition situa- tion of not only the population as a whole, but also chil- dren who are a physiologically vulnerable group where a lack of nutrients leads to a high risk of illness, poor physi- cal and cognitive development, and death. The GHI ranks countries on a 100-point scale in which zero is the best score (no hunger) and 100 the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice. ‘Hunger’ is understood to refer to the discomfort associ- ated with lack of food and the FAO defines food depriva-
- 42. The Basis forFood Security 13 tion or ‘undernourishment’ specifically as the consumption of fewer than 1,800 kcal a day. This is determined to be the minimum that most people require to live a healthy and productive life and anything under this would be consid- ered undernutrition. The FAO considers the composition of a population by age and sex to calculate its average minimum energy requirement, which varies by country. The FAO defines food insecurity as the following. A situation that exists when people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life. It may be caused by the unavailability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequate use of food at the household level. Food insecurity, poor conditions of health and sanitation, and inappropriate care and feeding practices are the major causes of poor nutri- tional status. Food insecurity may be chronic, seasonal or transitory. Thus, even undernutrition is more than a consideration of the consumption of calories because it includes deficien- cies in energy, protein, or essential vitamins and minerals. Undernutrition can be the result of inadequate intake of the quality or quantity of food and includes poor bioavail- abity of nutrients because of disease or reduced quality of food consumed. Overnutrition represents the problems of unbalanced diets that are largely caused by the consump- tion of too many calories and are often associated with poor micronutrient quality of diets. 1.5 The Undernutrition and Overnutrition Gap Figure 1.3, demonstrates the gap between undernutrition and overnutrition globally. The FAO data shown are derived from national agricultural and food industry
- 43. 14 Global FoodSecurity and Supply census. The figure shows the average supply of calories to individuals has increased year on year since 1961, but there have been clear inequalities in how supply is distributed globally. Asian and African regions have consistently been below this average and are cited in IFPRI and FAO reports that measure undernourishment as areas of most concern. European, American, and Oceanic (principally Australa- sian in this instance) are Calorie sufficient. The Brandt report defined these spatial inequalities and it was published in 1980 by an independent commission Chaired by Willy Brandt, chancellor of Germany from 1969 to 1974.26 At its most basic, it provided an understanding of drastic differences in the economic development for both the North and South hemispheres of the world. The Brandt report is important because it raised the issue of the ‘standard of living’ differences that exist along the global North–South divide, and there should therefore be a large Figure 1.3. The undernutrition gap demonstrated for global mean calorific supply (FAOSTAT data). Source: These data were adapted from FAO. FAOSTAT (2009). Food supply, crops, primary equivalent data set. http://faostat .fao.org/ (accessed 22 April 2014). 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 19611965197019751980198519901995200020052009 Food supply kcal/cap/day Europe Oceania Americas Asia Africa Worldmean values 1961–2012
- 44. The Basis forFood Security 15 transfer of supporting resources from developed to devel- oping countries. It most certainly did not foresee the extent of globalisation and the emergence of the impact large economies, such as China, would have on the world food system. In many respects, it presents the prior world view of globalisation and even though the inequalities it identi- fied do still exist, as shown in Figure 1.3, the impact of globalisation was not foreseen. Indeed, the type of analysis led by Brandt has been reanalysed and perhaps most emphasised by Professor Jared Diamond in his book Guns, Germs and Steel.27 These analyses firmly place the role of limitations placed on the food system by land and climate to be considered in delivering food security because they will influence the capacity to supply food. While technolo- gies will alleviate these limitations, the access to them may be again limited or controlled by trade. 1.6 The Supply Chain and Nutrition Gaps We can increasingly see that delivering food security is not only a case of producing ingredients and foods, there is an absolute requirement for highly efficient supply chains that deliver safe and nutritious food to consumers. While supply chain functions can be viewed simply as a series of four components shown in Figure 1.1, they quickly become complex at the scale of populations. Complexity in supply becomes apparent when the number of consumers, suppli- ers and ingredients used increase. Figure 1.3, demonstrates the impact of these principles on current global calorie supply. The world food supply of protein actually approaches 80 g for each person per day, as reported by FAO statistics in 2009, which is considered to be sufficient for most of the global population, at least a third of this can be from cereals.28 Advice from FAO and WHO state 0.66 g of protein per kg of body weight is sufficient for a healthy diet that maintains health.
- 45. 16 Global FoodSecurity and Supply The FAO and WHO figure now combine a 1973 protein recommendation that relied on a limited number of short- term and longer-term nitrogen balance studies with a later 1985 study to derive the protein requirement of adults. Some of these studies were designed to identify a require- ment and others to test the safe level (0.58 g protein/kg per day). Taken together in the 1985 report, they were interpreted as indicating a mean requirement of 0.6 g protein/kg per day, with a coefficient of variation esti- mated to be 12.5% in a typical population. This resulted in a safe protein intake recommendation of 0.75 g/kg per day; that is, a value at 2SD above the average requirement (0.66 g protein/kg per day), which would provide for the needs of nearly all individuals (97.5%) within a target population. Human metabolism regulates protein consumption to about 15% of total intake of a meal, and this is a much stronger relationship than for fat and carbohydrate.29 This will be returned to later, but there is strong evidence to suggest that the sustainability of healthy diets can be meas- ured by protein content. Indeed, protein intake leverages itself against fat and sugar consumption in that when protein intake is low, consumption of fat and sugar may increase in order to reach the 15% level of protein intake.30 As previously discussed, the average global protein supply hides large variations, with the protein supplied to an average European each day being 102 g, some 35 g more than a typical African. This variation describes the range of protein deficiency and oversufficiency, and it can also hide significant changes in the protein balance of diets shown in Figure 1.4. The protein supplied from cereal crops in Europe has declined since 1961, whereas during the same period, it has increased for the Asian region, where there are severe food security impacts, as high- lighted by the GHI assessment. This transition identifies how regions can increase protein supply and change protein consumption dynamics globally. The averageAsian
- 46. The Basis forFood Security 17 citizen will be supplied with some 30 g less protein than a European citizen on a daily basis, but more of the protein in an Asian diet is from cereals than a European one. This is important because dependency on cereals for balanced protein and nutrition depends on efficient pro- duction, and it has provided an important target for improving health. For example, the development of golden rice varieties with enhanced carotene content has been developed by large agricultural companies that have included Ciba Geigy and Monsanto and the resulting golden rice Humanitarian Board.31,32 The controversy sur- rounding the genetic modification technologies used to produce these varieties has met with resistance even though there is a clear nutritional benefit to consuming biofortified crops, such as golden rice. There are very clear indications that the pro-vitamin A activity of enhanced Figure 1.4. Protein supply from cereal crops in Asia and Europe1961–2010. Source: These data were adapted from FAO. FAOSTAT (2009). Food supply, crops, primary equivalent data set. http://faostat .fao.org/ (accessed 22 April 2014). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 Protein supplyg/ cap/day Europe Asia
- 47. 18 Global FoodSecurity and Supply carotenoids also improve the bioavailability of other micro- nutrients, such as iron.33 1.7 The Relationship between Food Security and Biology What has changed during the course of progress to the MDG Target for halving hunger is that the focus for tack- ling food security has become far broader than tackling agricultural limitations. Even though it is clear that improv- ing agricultural production does alleviate pressure on the food system with respect to supplying a nutritious diet, there are many other components of the food supply chain that will restrict access to food if they are not considered. It has become clear that the requirements for economic growth and social protection to be embedded in policies that are sensitive to supplying a nutritious diet are critical in delivering food security.7 An understanding of how sciences have influenced changes in food security policy is as necessary as appreci- ating the role of social, political, and economic change. With this in mind, the application of bioscience to agricul- ture has improved food security for billions of people, and it was the focus of alleviating hunger in the twentieth century. The Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s saw crop yields per hectare rise dramatically because of the application of crop breeding programmes that were tar- geted for specific global regions. Reassessments of crop- ping and grazing management globally provided a way of identifying where crop breeding, engineering, and man- agement programmes could be applied to increase the yield of biomass per hectare of land. These approaches at the time were effectively led internationally by Dr Norman Borlaug, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 and established the World Food Prize in 1987 for research excellence applied to the whole food system.
- 48. The Basis forFood Security 19 This was a time when it was clear what needed to be done because the risks of not doing anything to alleviate food insecurity were being made all too clear by research presenting the limits of natural resources, such as that of Professor Paul Ehrlich’s population time bomb ideas put forward at the end of the 1960s.34 Dr Norman Borlaug rec- ognised the potential for tailoring crop varieties for spe- cific global regions and particularly arid regions where water limitation and hunger were likely to be chronic problems. The agricultural system was critical to alleviat- ing the threat of famine that Ehrlich’s book laid out to the world, and Borlaug offered an option for overcoming the limits imposed by the agricultural systems of that time. By developing crop varieties that would enable crop yield to remove the scourge of hunger from the lives of millions of people, he demonstrated field agronomy had a critical role to play. He stated the following: Civilization as it is known today could not have evolved, nor can it survive, without an adequate food supply. Borlaug’s approach to alleviating the limits of food supply began in 1944, when he participated in the Rockefeller Foundation’s wheat improvement programme in Mexico as a research scientist working on wheat production prob- lems that were limiting wheat cultivation. This developed disease- and climate-resistant varieties, but also trained scientists to develop new methods of managing crops by a process known as agricultural extension. The field basis for extending agricultural research to production has been critical to developing agricultural systems that can allevi- ate hunger. New wheat varieties with improved yield potential and improved crop management practices trans- formed agricultural production in Mexico during the 1940s and 1950s and later in Asia and Latin America, sparking what today is known as the ‘Green Revolution’. This approach has led to science and crop breeding saving
- 49. 20 Global FoodSecurity and Supply millions of lives, with the World Food Prize Foundation stating the following, which demonstrates the value of extending the actions taken by crop scientists to the saving of human life by alleviating hunger. Because of his [Dr Norman Borlaug’s] achievements to prevent hunger, famine and misery around the world, it is said that Dr. Borlaug has “saved more lives than any other person who has ever lived.”35 What Borlaug did was to show a clear way of alleviating food supply limits by improving agricultural productivity. The rule base for doing this was relatively simple in that agriculture should be fit-for-purpose in specific environ- ments that have different climate, soils and needs. If we consider the words of Dr Daniel Hillel, who was awarded the 2012 World Food Prize, in his book Out of the Earth, it is clear that these things often overlooked: All terrestrial life depends on soil and water. So common- place and seemingly abundant are these elements that we tend to treat them contemptuously.36 The World Food Prize does provide an indicator of change with regard to tackling many of the challenges the food system places before us. Tackling the food insecurity that has limited the ability of humankind to ease conflict and the unsustainable use of natural resources entails using multidisciplinary approaches. The World Food Prize reflects this with the Laureates being from the policy, agronomy, biotechnology, and human health arenas.35 Development of new crop varieties and methods of growing crops feature strongly in the list of Laureates, along with those that are focused on the policy and politi- cal development of efficient supply chains. This demon- strates the duality of achieving food security in that the limitation of the supply function can be alleviated by
- 50. The Basis forFood Security 21 efficient agricultural production that taps into genetic resources of crops and livestock. However, security can be achieved only if social and political will support supply functions from the farm to the consumer. What has become apparent with the World Food Prize is the need to reevalu- ate what Borlaug achieved by improving farm efficiencies because it is clear that production and yield of crop varie- ties and livestock breeds have improved globally, so what do we do now to maintain efficiency? This is apparent if we consider yield improvement of major crops since the 1960s, where yield increases between 2% and 10% year-on-year have been observed for crops that are crucial to the production of ingredients and feed. These types of data set also raise extremely important con- siderations of weather and climate because from year to year, changes in temperature and water availability have significant impacts. The year-on-year yield increase of wheatgrain between1961 and 2012 forthe United Kingdom and world has been 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively (FAOSTAT data). Figure 1.5a,b shows that these data sets hide varia- tion in yield percentage change year-on-year during this 52-year period. Understanding this variation is important because it enables the implementation of structured adap- tive management that can both deal with the uncertainty associated with weather and the trends associated with environment change. A notable recent study of this issue of long term changes and trends is that of Schlenker and Roberts (2009), who used long-term data sets to demon- strate that when the corn, soybean and cotton crops of the USAexperiencetemperaturesofabove29°C,yielddecreases are seen and can be projected with confidence limits.37 Schlenker and Roberts (2009) suggest their research shows limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because they also accounted for changes in farm practice, such as water storage in response to increased temperature. They predict average yields to decrease by 30–46% before the
- 51. Another Random ScribdDocument with Unrelated Content
- 52. were halted bya big rock until the boys probed the underbrush around it and found stone steps leading downward. Soon, the whole procession was following a dizzy trail chiseled in the canyon wall. Barma Shah had been right regarding its depth: it was at least a mile and perhaps more. The vast gulch followed a zigzag as shown on the map, and as they steadily descended, the brim of the gorge was totally lost from view, due to the narrowing of the walls. Then, the zigzag sharpened, and on their own side of the gorge, they saw a fascinating sight. Through an opening in the granite poured what looked like a mammoth waterfall, except that it was utterly motionless. At the bottom, half a mile beneath, was a vast, glassy mass, pock-marked by thousands of huge stones. "An icefall!" exclaimed Charles Keene. "A stream of water, frozen solid, pouring down to a glacier below!" As he spoke, they saw a chunk of ice and rock drop from the brink and slide out along the graceful, frozen curve until it dropped straight down and struck the glacier. Then came a rising echo that reverberated through the gorge like a long roll of thunder. When the sound finally died away, Barma Shah said coolly: "That is why they call it the Place of Living Thunder. People have heard that roar from the brink above, but we are the first to see what caused it—except for those who live in the valley." Their course brought them to the huge icefall. This time Charles Keene and Barma Shah led the way together, followed by Hurdu and the Tibetan bearers, with Biff and the boys bringing up the rear. The
- 53. path seemed avery safe one, being hewn in the solid rock. Granite steps took them upward to the overhanging curve of the giant icefall. Above that, a bridge of large steppingstones crossed the whitish flowing mass. Biff, in the lead, leaped to the first stone and felt it quiver. He should have turned back, but instead, he tried to jump on to the next. The first stone suddenly went from under him, spilling Biff backward. Mike, who had reached the top of the steps, grabbed for Biff's hand and caught it with both of his own. Then Mike was swept off balance by the force of Biff's slide. Both would have gone skimming over the brink, except that Chuba and Kamuka, coming next, were in time to catch Mike's ankles and hold them. They hadn't the strength to pull the pair back, and Biff, from his precarious position, realized why. That curving brink of perpetual ice was so smooth that it offered nothing in the way of a hold, not even the slightest amount of friction. Slowly, surely, the drag would bring all four along, unless someone's hold gave out. In any case, Biff Brewster would be the first to slide out over that fatal curve and plunge the half mile to the glacier below! XIX The Lost City From his hopeless perch, Biff heard Kamuka and Chuba shouting up above. "Come on, you fellows!" they yelled. "Lend a hand!" They were calling to Li and Chandra, who were still coming up the granite
- 54. steps, but itwas useless. Biff and Mike represented too much dead weight, even for all four. Mike had Biff's wrist in a powerful grip. They were face to face as Biff looked up and said, "You'll have to let go, Mike. They may be able to haul you back, but not both of us." "It's both," gritted Mike, "or neither!" "But you'll only be dragging the others along, too. Can't you understand?" "No." Mike grinned grimly as he was jolted upward. Then, as he slipped back downward, he added, "Yes." Mike realized that Li had joined Chuba and Kamuka; that with Li's helping hand, they had managed a temporary lift, only to lose what little they had gained. But Mike still gripped Biff. "Chandra will be helping them next," Mike said reassuringly. "With four pulling, it will make a difference." "Yes, they'll manage to hold on a little longer," groaned Biff, "but it can't change things, Mike. They still can haul you up, if you'll only let go." "Only I won't let go!" A sharp sound was beating through Biff's brain. It came, "Crack— crack—crack—" in deadly monotone. He imagined he heard a new voice too, Chandra's voice, saying, "I'll be there, Biff!" Then came the "Crack—crack—" and again, "I'll be there—" closer, it seemed,
- 55. and just below.For the first time, Biff steeled his nerve and looked down. Chandra was there! On the curving brink itself, hanging to the ice where it was steeper than the spot where Biff himself was stretched. In his hand, Chandra held his axe, which he had retrieved after hurling it at the bear. With it, he was chopping into the ice, making those "Crack—crack—" sounds. Chandra hadn't gone up the steps to join the boys above. Instead, he had hacked steps of his own into the fringe of the icefall! He'd made enough to gain hand and toeholds for himself. Working up from those at an outward angle, he had literally chopped a slanted ladder, climbing it as he did. Now he was denting the ice beside Biff's right ankle. That done, he shoved Biff's right foot into place. Biff shifted his weight in that direction. Instantly the strain on Mike lessened just enough for him to open his half-closed eyes and stare downward in wonder. Crack—crack—crack— There was a toehold for Biff's left foot now. That really eased the strain, for Mike's body immediately moved up a bit, pulled by the boys above. Chandra kept hacking, more steps, higher; Biff kept climbing the new ones, leaving the old to Chandra, who promptly followed. Then suddenly, Mike was up to safety and they were hauling Biff up, too, when he gasped: "Wait! I'm bringing Chandra, too!" So Biff was, for by now Chandra was tiring. He clung to Biff's leg with one hand and kept chopping steps with the other, just enough
- 56. to work himselfup. Then hands from above gripped Chandra, and he and Biff were hauled up side by side. Kamuka found a board from an old catwalk and used it to bridge the gap across the missing steppingstone. One by one, the boys crossed the frozen stream above the mammoth icefall. They found steps on the other side and descended for nearly half a mile before they overtook the party. Charles Keene, Barma Shah, Hurdu, and all the rest were waiting on a great, wide lookout platform, viewing a stupendously breathtaking scene. There, set in a tremendous niche across the mile-deep gorge, was the Lost City of Chonsi. There were small stone huts in the foreground. These, if seen from straight above, would look like nothing more than rock heaps. But the pride of Chonsi, the palace of the Grand Lama, rose above a towering array of great stone steps and castellated walls forming tier after tier of magnificent buildings to a height of nearly five hundred feet, only to be dwarfed by the more tremendous mass of the cliff that overhung it. From the top of the great gorge it would be impossible even to glimpse this hidden wonder of the Himalayas in the massive hollow that had been hewn to contain it. Yet its relation to the gorge was such that sunlight streamed down into this secret setting during a good proportion of the day. Barma Shah summed it up when he stated: "There is an old saying: 'As long as the Himalayas stand, so will Chonsi.' Now I understand its meaning. If that cliff should tumble, the city would fall, too."
- 57. Amazed at thesight of the stupendous citadel, Biff did not tell his Uncle Charlie and Barma Shah about his near-plunge from the icefall. Instead, he reminded them of his mission: "The sooner we get over there, the quicker we will find my father." Both men agreed, but Barma Shah added, "You will have to see the Grand Lama first." That was the part that worried Biff most, though he didn't say so. Now that he was practically at his goal, he felt shakier than ever, for the Chonsi Lama now represented power on a vast scale, considering the size of his secret stronghold. The party continued down the granite trail, which zigzagged to the bottom of the canyon and there crossed a deep but narrow stream on a bridge of simple logs. At the other side, they came to a great wall, where gates were being swung wide to receive them. They were ushered in by lesser lamas and other dignitaries, all wearing robes and costumes of an ancient day. [Illustration: There, across the mile-deep gorge, was the Lost City of Chonsi] With Hurdu and the porters following, they were conducted up outer steps, then deep beneath a portico and up more steps until they reached a magnificently tiled inner courtyard, where they were bowed to rows of benches. An elderly lama approached and gestured to Biff, as he said, "You may come."
- 58. Next, he addressedCharles Keene and Barma Shah. "You two may follow." Then, to the boys, "And you next." Pausing, he looked toward the porters and asked, "Any of these?" Barma Shah decided to bring Hurdu and three others. So, in the order as arranged, they entered another portico and climbed a short flight of gilded steps into a reception room also decorated in gold. There, Biff was told that he was to enter the throne-room of the Grand Lama alone, while Charles Keene and Barma Shah were to be ready when summoned. Golden doors were opening when Uncle Charlie whispered to Biff, "Remember, you're meeting one of the wisest men in the East, as I can now believe. Pay close attention." To that, Biff nodded. Then, as trumpets blared, he was ushered through the doors, clutching the ruby that he had carried all along as his final passport to the Grand Lama's presence. Then Biff reached a throne where a figure in great golden robes and peaked hat awaited him. On each side stood a solemn dignitary, each in similar robes. One asked in a droning tone, "You have brought the Light of the Lama?" Then as Biff solemnly replied, "Yes," the other dignitary ordered, "Give it to the Great One." No promises, no conditions, no mention of Biff's father. Just hand over the ruby and hope for the best. With a bow, Biff produced the magnificent red gem, which was glowing more vividly than ever. He placed it in the Chonsi Lama's outstretched left hand. Then, hoping to ask the obvious question, he looked up at the Great One. Biff gasped despite himself. Instead of viewing the austere visage of a man in his mid-fifties, he was looking into the smiling, friendly
- 59. face of aboy no older than himself. Still weighing the ruby in his left hand, the Chonsi Lama extended his right in greeting, as he said: "Thank you, Biff!" XX The Master Spy Before Biff could recover from his astonishment, the Chonsi Lama nodded to one of the men beside him. A moment later, a door opened in the side of the room and Mr. Brewster entered, as brisk and smiling as when Biff had last seen him. A glad meeting followed. Then, with his arm around Biff's shoulder, Mr. Brewster approached the throne, where the youthful Lama handed him the ruby, saying, "I know you would like to see this, after all you have done to bring it here." Biff suddenly felt very much at home with this boy who was so friendly toward his father. "The ruby is sparkling now," said Biff, "but it changes sometimes and turns dull. That worried Diwan Chand." "Due probably to the setting," observed Mr. Brewster with a smile. "If moisture gets beneath the gem, it detracts from the sparkle, but only temporarily." "I am glad to hear that." The Chonsi Lama smiled, as he took back the ruby. "I notice that its glow has lessened, and I do not care for bad omens."
- 60. As he placedthe ruby in his robe, the Chonsi Lama turned to Biff again. "Your father told me much about you," he said. "That was one reason why I wanted you to bring the ruby, as it was a good way to meet you. But we weren't quite ready to tell the world that I am now the Chonsi Lama. At last we can declare it." He turned to one of the robed dignitaries. "Usher in the others," he ordered. Then, as an afterthought, he added, "Bring the boys in first." As Biff and his father stepped to one side, Mr. Brewster quietly explained that the former Chonsi Lama had died a few years after his visit to Leh, some twenty years before. "He gave orders to keep his death a secret," explained Biff's father, "until times became less troubled. So a boy who was born at the time the old Lama died was chosen to succeed him. He grew up on the throne, and there he is now. I was as much surprised as you when I met him." More surprises were due. As Biff's friends were ushered in, they looked as awed as Biff had been when he approached the throne. Awe turned to amazement when the boy Lama greeted them each by name and gave them the same winning smile that he had shown Biff. "Bring in the others," the Chonsi Lama ordered, referring to Charles Keene and Barma Shah. He turned to Mr. Brewster. "I shall
- 61. now officially announcethat your mission is complete," he said. "The Light of the Lama has been returned. Since it was restored by the present government of India, I shall ally myself with that nation for our mutual advantage. As for the trouble you encountered at the gold mines, it still has puzzling factors—" The Chonsi Lama broke off to greet the newcomers who were being ushered in. To Charles Keene, he said cordially, "I know you must be Biff's uncle." Then, turning to the other man, he added, "And you are Barma Shah—" Mr. Brewster was coming forward in quick interruption to confront the bland man with the broad face and the wide ears. Biff, accustomed to his father's calm, was surprised to hear Mr. Brewster exclaim excitedly, "Wait! This man is not Barma Shah. He is an impostor! I have never seen him before!" "No, I am not Barma Shah," the impostor stated. "But are you sure we haven't met? Don't you remember—" He drew his hands over his ears, pursed his lips and narrowed his eyes to thin slits as he leered mockingly at Biff's father. His complete change of appearance was startling. "The spy we nearly trapped down at the mine!" Mr. Brewster exclaimed. "You are Bela Kron, the man who was after the ruby!" "Yes, I am Bela Kron," the master spy answered, smiling. "And I took the place of your friend Barma Shah after he was killed in a Calcutta riot of a month ago. Now, I am taking over here!"
- 62. Kron, the pretendedBarma Shah, was drawing a revolver from his pocket. He had raised his voice and it must have carried beyond the golden doors, for they suddenly burst open to admit Hurdu and the three men with him. No longer were the Changpas carrying bows and arrows. Hurdu had a revolver, and the others were similarly armed. Efficiently, Kron motioned the robed dignitaries to one corner of the throne room, Thomas Brewster and Charles Keene to another, Biff and the boys to a third. That left the youthful Chonsi Lama still on his throne—for how long was a question, though he took the situation calmly. Pleased by the way he and his picked crew had taken over, Bela Kron decided to enlarge upon it. "I started the trouble at the mines," he bragged. "I wanted to acquire the Rajah's ruby as a passport to bring me to this hidden citadel, so I could either make my own terms with the Chonsi Lama, or else notify certain foreign factions just where they could find him. Brewster beat me here, but when I learned his son was bringing the ruby, I decided to come along with him." With a mocking look toward Biff, Kron swept his hand around his head, turban fashion, then downward from his chin to indicate a beard. "Remember that Sikh in the bus?" he demanded. "The one with the false beard? I was that Sikh. That's how I picked up your trail. I saw Chandra buy the tickets, and I purposely crossed your path later.
- 63. "For other reasons,I had helped stir the Kali cult into making trouble, but I didn't know they were hot after you. So from then on, I looked out for you, knowing that as Barma Shah, your father's friend and contact, you would bring me here. I saved your life during the tiger hunt, and again, when the bear was after you. I tried to get rid of your uncle on the bridge, because I didn't want him in the way. So I had Hurdu cut the cable." Kron glanced at Hurdu, who shrugged apologetically. "Hurdu was slow that time," declared Kron, "but he did a good job faking Yeti tracks to scare Tikse and his crew clear back to Leh, so we could hire the Changpas, who were waiting in the valley where the trails met." It seemed that Bela Kron, the master spy, had called every possible turn. But he had a still bigger trick to play. "My men are stationed in the courtyard below," he declared. "I shall have Hurdu send two of his men down and bring the rest up." He waved toward the door, and Hurdu promptly started the two men on their way. "Then we shall leave, taking you with us." Kron approached the Chonsi Lama as he spoke. "It will take all the wealth of this hidden city to make the first payment on your ransom." Calmly, the youthful Lama studied Kron, then smiled as though ready to accept whatever fate decreed. Kron responded with a glare, then swung to view the others in the same ugly fashion. "I'll soon decide what to do with the rest of you," Kron began. "In fact—" he paused as a heavy rap sounded on the golden door—"I'll decide right now, because Hurdu's men are back. Let them in,
- 64. Hurdu." Hurdu turnedand opened the door. As he did, he came flying back as though a tornado had hit him. Hurdu's gun scaled from his hand as he landed hard and flat. The one man still with Hurdu was jumping in to help him, only to be sprawled in the same efficient fashion. Now, Biff saw the man with the double-barreled fists who had played the part of a human whirlwind. Biff raised a shout that the other boys echoed: "Muscles!" XXI Secret of the Snows Bela Kron, though standing ready with his gun, was caught flatfooted by the speed and power that Muscles showed. Kron was a crack shot, but he had to wait until Hurdu and the other husky guard were out of the way before he could open fire. In his eagerness to concentrate on Muscles, Kron forgot two others. Those two were Thomas Brewster and Charles Keene. Knowing exactly how far Muscles could carry his drive, Biff's father and uncle acted accordingly. At the crucial moment, they launched a double drive of their own. Kron, coming to deliberate aim as Muscles hulked up as a target, was suddenly overwhelmed before he could pull the trigger of his gun.
- 65. Excitedly, Biff andthe other boys were pointing to the outer room where more figures were appearing, but Muscles motioned for them to be calm. Then, through the doorway, came Tikse and half a dozen of his Ladakhi crew. Amiably, Muscles waved them out, saying, "Never mind, boys, you won't be needed." The men from Leh realized suddenly that they were in the presence of the Chonsi Lama, and that in itself accomplished results. Bowing low, they backed out through the golden doors. Gravely, the Chonsi Lama returned their bows until they were gone. Then he turned to Biff and said, "If you introduce your friend Muscles, I will grant him an audience. Then he can tell his story of how he turned the tables." Biff introduced Muscles, who responded characteristically. "Everything's under control," he said, "so I can take time out to talk. It seems like talking is getting to be the best thing I do. Those Sherpas we landed among thought I was what they called a Yeti, but I talked them out of it. "Then they were so glad, they were ready to do anything I wanted, so I talked them into coming over this way and catching up with the party that was on its way here, just on the chance I might be needed. "We tried to take a short cut and whom did we run into?" Muscles turned to Biff. "Your whole crew of porters, heading back to Leh. When they told me they'd been seeing Yeti tracks, I figured somebody had been faking them."
- 66. "Somebody was," returnedBiff. "Hurdu." The Chonsi Lama was becoming more and more intrigued. He expressed the eagerness felt by all the boys when he suddenly urged, "Go on, Muscles, tell us more!" "Well, your honor," Muscles resumed, suddenly impressed by the youthful Lama's robe, "I did some more talking to Tikse and his friends. I told them that there weren't any such things as Yetis, and that having been mistaken for one, I was somebody who should know. So they turned right around and came along with me. "Then, to convince them further, I rigged myself up in an old yak hide and wrapped old towels around my shoes, so I could scare Hurdu and his tribe into thinking they were really looking at a Yeti and not just his footprints." "So you were the thing we saw go bounding up the ledge!" exclaimed Biff. "That's right," said Muscles. "I kept on going, too, clear up beyond a big rock pile." Chandra turned to Biff. "You see? I was right." "It was dark when I started out," continued Muscles, "so I brought a rifle with me. I'd left it up behind the rock pile, and when I saw you tangling with that big bear, I up and clipped him, first shot. There was other shooting coming from down your way, so I had my chance to clear out and did." "And you followed us from then on?" queried Biff.
- 67. "Sure did," returnedMuscles. "We saw you go into a woods and disappear, so we did the same and found the steps that brought us down here. They let us in when I said I was with you, Biff, so I guess you're pretty important around here." "Biff is important here," declared the Chonsi Lama. "Very important." "I decided to take over," Muscles went on, "when we found a lot of Hurdu's men down in the courtyard. We jumped them before they knew what to expect. They knew, though, when they got it. I came on up and ran into a couple of Hurdu's men coming down. So I bagged them and turned them over to my crew. Then I walked in here, and you saw the rest." It was time now for the Chonsi Lama to hold a conference with his advisers, so he politely bowed his visitors and rescuers out. On the way down from the throne room, Biff said to Muscles, "So you don't believe there are such things as Yetis?" "I didn't when I came here," returned Muscles, "but after one look at this place, I am ready to believe anything." They left Bela Kron, Hurdu, and a few of his men in the custody of the palace guards, a dozen men in garish red-and-yellow uniforms whose chief business was blowing trumpets, opening doors, and participating in ceremonies generally. The guards were armed with brass muskets that looked like models of ancient Chinese cannon and probably hadn't been fired since the day gunpowder was invented.
- 68. The guards weregood custodians, however, for the massive buildings forming the foundations of the slant-walled palace were honeycombed with secret passages and hidden cells. Escape was impossible, even for Bela Kron, the master spy, and his principal followers. As for the rest, they were simply Changpa tribesmen who had been coaxed in from remote Tibet by Hurdu, just as Muscles had brought in the visiting Sherpas from Nepal. By now, Sherpas and Changpas were becoming friends, rather than one group having the other in its charge. The Ladakhi, too, were fraternizing with both groups and all were so overwhelmed by the importance of the Chonsi Lama that they were ready to follow his commands. So they were given the freedom of the fabulous city until the time should come for them to return to their native climes. Mr. Brewster sat in on the conferences held by the Chonsi Lama and his advisers, with Charles Keene an occasional participant in the deliberations. During breaks in the session, they chatted with Biff and the other boys, who were lodged in special guest quarters with Muscles. "When the previous Lama died," Mr. Brewster stated, "he saw to it that his successor would be educated in modern ways as well as those of ancient days. Your friend, the young Lama, had an English tutor and is versed in other modern languages as well. He is now just sixteen years old and has two more years to go until he is of age. "The two men you saw with him were the Acting Regent and the Prime Minister, who have been keeping Chonsi as it was, until the new Grand Lama takes full power. But now that the Rajah's ruby has
- 69. been returned tobecome again the Light of the Lama, they have decided that this is their day of decision. All agree that Chonsi no longer should be the Lost City." That became official the next day. The natives of Chonsi were told that they were free to visit the outer world without restriction. The Chonsi Lama entrusted Mr. Brewster with state despatches to be taken to New Delhi, so that the boundaries of tiny Chonsi could be defined and its status determined through international negotiations. Bela Kron, Hurdu, and a few others were to be turned over to the government of India, as they were wanted for crimes committed within the jurisdiction of that nation. Biff and the boys had a last pleasant visit with the Chonsi Lama and then were on their way. All Chonsi was out to wave farewell to the departing visitors. From the distance came booming sounds like a parting salute, but not from guns. Those were the reverberations from the crashing masses of rock and ice that so frequently toppled from the granite walls that flanked this narrow land, the Place of Living Thunder. All the porters and native tribesmen made the return climb from the mile-deep chasm and back through the mountain passes beyond. There were no serious incidents along the way, as the expedition no longer was troubled with plotters such as Bela Kron and Hurdu. Instead of returning to Leh with the Ladakhi, Biff and his father and the rest of the party continued south to the ranges where the Sherpas lived. There, Charles Keene and Muscles put the plane in flying order, and after a few pleasant days in the fertile valley, the first group took off for New Delhi. Charles Keene was at the controls. With him
- 70. were Mr. Brewster,Biff, Chandra, and Kamuka, all of whom could give first-hand evidence concerning the double dealings of the notorious Bela Kron. Charles Keene was then to fly back to the Sherpa valley and pick up Muscles, Li, Chuba, and Mike Arista, to bring them on to New Delhi, where all the boys would meet again. But as the plane climbed high above the mountain pass, thoughts of a more immediate reunion flashed through Biff's mind and brought an anticipatory smile to his lips. By the time they reached New Delhi, Biff's mother would be there from Darjeeling, with the twins. Eyes half closed, Biff could already picture the eager faces of Ted and Monica as his brother and sister waited breathlessly to hear the full story of his latest adventures! [Illustration: Endpapers] Transcriber's Notes —Copyright notice provided as in the original—this e-text is public domain in the country of publication. —Provided a cover based on elements from the book, provided for free and unrestricted use with this eBook. —Silently corrected palpable typos; left non-standard spellings and dialect unchanged.
- 71. —In the textversions, delimited italics text in underscores (the HTML version reproduces the font form of the printed book.) End of Project Gutenberg's Mystery of the Ambush in India, by Andy Adams
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