GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH

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GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON
HUMAN HEALTH
Fernando Alcoforado
Abstract: This article aims to present the impacts of global warming and the consequent global climate change
on human health and the solutions to avoid its harmful consequences against humanity.
Keywords: Global warming; Global climate change; Sustainable development; Human health.
1. Introduction
This article aims to present the impacts of global warming and the consequent global
climate change on human health and the solutions to avoid its harmful consequences
against humanity. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to promote a profound
transformation of current society, which has been extremely destructive of the planet's
living conditions. Therefore, it is essential to build a sustainable society, replacing the
current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into account
man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable
development. The Paris Agreement was analyzed based on the COP 21 organized by the
UN through which 195 countries and the European Union defined how humanity will
fight global warming in the coming decades, as well as was analyzed literature related to
global warming and climate change to extract the conclusions that point out how to
replace the current development model with the sustainable development model.
2. Global warming, climate change and the Paris Agreement with COP 21
Global warming is a climatic phenomenon that, to a large extent, represents an increase
in the average temperature of the Earth's surface that has been occurring over the last 150
years. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), instituted by the UN
(United Nations) states that the global warming observed is most likely due to an increase
in the greenhouse effect and there is strong evidence that global warming is largely due
to human action. Many meteorologists and climatologists consider it proven that human
action is actually influencing the occurrence of the phenomenon. There is no doubt that
human activity on Earth causes changes in the environment in which we live. Many of
these environmental impacts result from the unsustainability of society's current
development model.
The unsustainability of society's current development model stems from the fact that it is
responsible for the depletion of the planet's natural resources, the degradation of the
planet's environment, the rapid increase in global temperatures and consequent climate
change that can become catastrophic for humanity. These facts increasingly show the
need for the paradigm that guided the development of human society since the 1st
Industrial Revolution needs to be profoundly modified. The main environmental threat is
represented by climate change that to avoid it the Paris Agreement was signed at the COP
21 organized by the UN.
After several years of negotiations, deadlocks, timid advances and failures, 195 countries
and the European Union produced at COP 21, in Paris, a global agreement that defines

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how humanity will fight global warming in the coming decades. For the first time, all
countries in the world are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening
resilience (ability to return to its natural state, especially after a critical and unusual
situation) and uniting in a common cause against climate changes. The agreement is not
mandatory for all goals by the countries as the majority intended.
The Paris Agreement's stated aim was to contain the global average temperature rise
which is 15 °C well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to make efforts to limit
the temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would
significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. The reference to the 1.5 °C
reduction target came about thanks to the joint action of island countries, which will be
condemned to long-term extinction by the rise in sea level resulting from global warming
that would raise the temperature by 2 °C.
The world's leading climate scientists have warned that there are only two years of global
warming to reach a maximum 1.5 °C increase in the planet's average temperature, beyond
which even half a degree increase will significantly increase the risks of drought, floods,
extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. To keep the temperature rise
between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the half-degree difference can prevent corals from being
completely eradicated and relieve pressure on the Arctic. There is a scientific basis that
the 1.5 °C temperature rise is not just a political concession. There is growing recognition
that considering a 2°C increase as a goal is dangerous.
Two main aspects were not considered in the Paris Agreement: (1) the long-term goal of
decarbonizing the economy by 2050 or cutting at least 70% of global greenhouse gas
emissions by the middle of the 21st century; and 2) the goal of limiting the increase in the
planet's average temperature is not accompanied by a roadmap stating how the world
intends to reach less than 2 °C or 1.5 °C, which weakens the pursuit of this goal.
An issue that was not addressed at COP 21 concerns the extinction of wars that are also
largely responsible for the environmental deterioration of the planet. Among the countless
dire consequences of wars are the devastating effects on the environment. The bombing
of military targets and civilian populations, the intense movement of military vehicles and
troops, the large concentration of combat flights, the missiles launched on cities and the
destruction of military and industrial structures during all these conflicts also cause the
emission of metals and other substances that contaminate soil, water and air. In addition
to environmental contamination, it is also necessary to consider the modification of
natural landscapes and the long-term loss of biodiversity, whether due to the presence of
land mines or chemical agents dispersed in the environment. This was also not considered
at COP 21.
The Paris Agreement does not resolve the fundamental issues and the voluntary targets
indicated by each of the nations are not sufficient to ensure that the increase in global
warming will stay well below 2 degrees Celsius towards 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year
2100. Furthermore, the document does not present proposals that contribute to the
construction of a sustainable development model on our planet in place of the current
unsustainable and chaotic model of capitalist development.

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Finally, it is important to emphasize that the Paris Agreement is also silent on the
construction of a global governance system that is capable of ordering the planet's
environment to prevent its degradation that contributes to global warming and
catastrophic climate change and to avoid proliferation of conflicts in international
relations that worsen every day, fueling the occurrence of wars, including a devastating
new world war. Given these serious omissions at COP 21, it can be said that we will
hardly be able to try to avoid catastrophic changes in the climate of planet Earth in the
21st century.
3. Global warming, climate change and its impacts on human health
Global warming will have a huge impact on the health of the world's population. Global
warming will lead to an increase in heart attacks and respiratory illnesses according to a
study by several researchers who emphasize that they only now recognize the
repercussions of global warming on human health. This study considers that the increase
in the frequency of hot flashes will lead to a doubling or even a tripling by 2050 of the
cases of infarction and respiratory diseases.
There will also be an increase in the number of people affected by asthma, infections
transmitted by mosquitoes, cases of food poisoning and viral infections such as avian flu
and atypical pneumonia (SARS). According to researchers, Australia will be one of the
nations most affected by climate change and its impacts on health, with a growing number
of victims of heart attacks and the multiplication of cases of asthma, food poisoning,
infectious diseases, obesity, diabetes and mental disorders. Climate change directly
affects human health through extreme weather events, the spread of vector-borne and
other infectious diseases, and aggravated air pollution. Indirectly, climate change affects
human health, causing malnutrition, worsening working conditions and creating mental
stress.
Extreme heat is one of the leading causes of climate-related death. The combination of
climate change and urbanization continues to intensify heat extremes around the world.
Thermal stress affects productivity and can increase the risk of cardiovascular, respiratory
and kidney diseases. Even heating with a 1°C temperature rise potentially reduces
productivity by between 1% and 3% of those working outdoors. Poor populations without
access to air conditioning will be the most affected, as they will find it more difficult to
escape the extreme heat. Heat stress combined with physical exertion and lack of
hydration can cause chronic kidney disease (CKD), which decreases kidney function over
time. CKD disproportionately affects poor populations and manual workers who work in
hot thermal conditions.
Food security is determined by environmental, social, political and economic factors.
Food availability problems will become more pronounced as global temperature rises.
There may be a reduction in the availability of food. For every degree of temperature
increase, world wheat production falls by 6% and world rice production falls by 10%.
Changes in rainfall, increase in the planet's average temperature and changes in soil
composition are determining factors for crop growth and quality. Climate change could
reduce the nutritional value of crops, causing under nutrition to be considered by some
researchers as the greatest potential health impact of climate change this century. New

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research suggests that in a warmer world insect metabolism increases, causing them to
eat more and increasing crop losses.
There may be water shortages. Climate change is putting further pressure on water
security, altering the hydrological cycle, just as warming glacier layers are impacting
freshwater supplies. The Middle East, India, Antarctica and Greenland are facing
significant freshwater loss. 80% of the world's population is already facing threats to its
water security, including water availability, demand for water and its pollution.
Populations living in low-lying areas are at greater risk of flooding and contamination of
their freshwater sources by rising sea levels and soil salinization. Higher water
temperatures, increased rainfall and droughts can increase water pollution and harm
human health.
Vector-borne diseases may occur. Climate change causes changes in temperature,
precipitation and humidity, and as a result, increases the risk of disease transmission.
Climate change is expected to change disease patterns with some regions facing increases
while others may see reductions. Malaria, dengue, Japanese encephalitis and tick-borne
encephalitis are infectious diseases transmitted by insects that will be caused by climate
change. Air pollution is currently one of the main health risk factors, leading to significant
increases in mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. Air
pollution around the world often caused by the use of the same fossil fuels that cause
climate change can make climate change worse. Air pollution is a big problem especially
in urban areas.
4. Conclusions
Science shows that the impacts of climate change on human health in a global warming
scenario with an increase in temperature of 1.5°C are lower than those expected in a
scenario of a 2°C increase which, in turn, are significantly smaller compared to the
situation created in a 3°C rise scenario. Therefore, limiting global warming to 1.5°C has
substantial health benefits for people. But even in this scenario climate change will still
create health problems for many.
Global warming and climate change tend to produce a real crisis of humanity by
threatening its survival, making it essential to build a new model of society or a new world
order based on the model of sustainable development that makes each country act at a
level planetary in an interdependent and rational way with common goals, without which
the survival of human beings and life on the planet could be put in check.
To change this situation that threatens the future of humanity, it is necessary to promote
a profound transformation of current society. The unsustainability of the current model
of capitalist development is evident as it has been extremely destructive of living
conditions on the planet. Therefore, it is essential that a sustainable society is built,
replacing the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes
into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the sustainable
development model, this goal not considered at COP 21.
To build a sustainable society, the following objectives should be pursued:

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• Reduce global carbon emissions, promoting changes in the current global energy matrix
based on fossil fuels (coal and oil) by one based on renewable energy resources,
hydroelectricity, biomass, solar and wind energy, to prevent or minimize global warming
and, consequently, the occurrence of catastrophic changes in the Earth's climate as well
as in the current global transport matrix aiming at its rationalization and the use of
electricity and renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels.
• Reduce nitrous oxide emissions to meet the UN target of limiting Earth's warming to
2°C.
• Improve energy efficiency by developing actions to achieve energy savings in the city
and countryside, in buildings, agriculture, industries and transport in general, thus
contributing to the reduction of global carbon emissions and, consequently, avoid the
greenhouse effect.
• Make motor vehicles and equipment for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses more
efficient, buildings are designed for maximum natural lighting, natural cooling and
heating savings, agriculture and industry are modeled to require the least amount of
energy resources and raw materials, also contemplating the self-production of energy with
the use of residues from its production processes based on reverse logistics and, finally,
new transport alternatives from the bicycle to the high-capacity ones based on railroads
are used, among other initiatives.
• Combat soil, air and water pollution, reducing waste by recycling used and discarded
materials.
• Restore and stabilize the biological basis by making land use follow the basic principles
of biological stability (nutrient retention, carbon balance, soil protection, water
conservation and preservation of species diversity) and make the rural areas have greater
diversity than today with balanced land management where there is crop rotation and
species cultivation, there are no wasted crops, tropical forests are conserved, there is no
deforestation to obtain wood and other products, new trees are planted, there is efforts to
contain desertification by turning degraded areas into productive lands, the extensive use
of pastures is eliminated, and the food chain of affluent societies includes less meat and
more grains and vegetables.
• Adjust population growth to the resources available on the planet, reducing their birth
rates, especially in countries and regions with high population growth rates to limit the
world population to 10 billion people.
• Reduce social inequalities, including the adoption of measures that contribute to meeting
the basic needs of the world population, such as food, clothing, housing, health services,
employment and a better quality of life.
• Ensuring that economic growth and resulting wealth are shared by the entire population,
education services allow the population to increase levels of qualification for work and
culture, health services are effective in combating child mortality and contribute to
increased life expectancy of the population, all men and women have decent housing and
there are public and private investments at the necessary level that contribute to the

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reduction of mass unemployment as a result of the general crisis of the world capitalist
system that tends to worsen in the future.
REFERENCES
ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Catastrophic climate change requires new society model.
Article published in the Journal of Environmental Science Current Research on May 5,
2020.
ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária. Santa Cruz do
Rio Pardo, São Paulo: Viena- Editora e Gráfica, 2010.
CLIMA INFO. Os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a saúde em cenários de
aquecimento de 1,5°C – 2°C – e 3°C. Disponível no website
<https://climainfo.org.br/2018/10/21/impactos-a-saude-do-aquecimento-global/>.
REINACH, Fernando. Aquecimento pode reduzir produção de alimentos. Estado de São
Paulo, 09/08/2006.
SUSTENTÁVEL BLOG. Mudança climática impacta a saúde, aponta OMS. Disponível
no website <https://cebds.org/mudanca-climatica-impacta-a-saude-aponta-
oms/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwraqHBhDsARIsAKuGZeEcBObg5q3Dq9Y8Niil_qcyATXJoZB
NuYtiKeYCwa-cg3ZLy8bKuTIaAj0nEALw_wcB#.YOsJCOhKjcc>.
UOL Ciência e Saúde. Aquecimento global provocará aumento de infartos e doenças
respiratórias. 31/10/2007.
Author
Fernando Alcoforado is a PhD in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from
the Barcelona University, Spain. He graduated in Electrical Engineering from UFBA -
Federal University of Bahia, Brazil, and Specialist in Engineering Economy and
Industrial Administration from UFRJ - Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Currently he is a member of the Polytechnic Institute of Bahia (IPB), holds the position
of professor of postgraduate courses in Administration, Economics and Engineering from
several Brazilian educational institutions and as a Consultant in the areas of strategic
planning, regional planning, planning of systems of science, technology and innovation
and planning of systems of energy. He held the positions of Coordinator of Strategic
Planning of Ceped- Research and Development Center, Secretary of Planning of City of
Salvador, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, President of IRAE - Instituto
Rômulo Almeida of Higher Studies, Director of the Faculty of Administration of the
Faculties Integrated Olga Mettig of Salvador, Bahia and Consultant of Winrock
International in the area of renewable energy and UNESCO- United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization and Culture. He received the Brazilian Medal of
Merit of Engineering from the CONFEA (Federal Council of Engineering and Agronomy
of Brazil) and he is a member of the Bahia Academy of Education. He is the author of 15
books which deal with issues relating to Brazilian Economy, Energy, Economic and
Social Development, Environment, Global Warming, Climate Change, Globalization,
Science and Technology, Astronomy and Cosmology.

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