Google Book Settlement: Symposium at New York Law School

Michael Cairns
Managing Partner
Information Media Partners
Google Book Settlement
New York Law School Symposium 2009

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Introduction
Michael Cairns is a publishing and media executive with over 25 years experience in
business strategy, operations and technology implementation. As a business
executive, Mr. Cairns has successfully managed several troubled and under-
performing businesses, creating new business opportunities, developing new funding
sources and enhancing shareholder value for investors. His years spent as an
operating executive have largely been with brand-name publishing companies such
as Macmillan, Inc., Berlitz International, Wolters Kluwer Health, Reed Elsevier and
R.R. Bowker. As a consultant, Mr. Cairns has worked with clients as diverse as
AARP, Hewlett Packard, InterPublic Companies and Reed Elsevier with an emphasis
on business strategy, market development and corporate development.
His skills and experience include:
 Business and corporate strategy development and implementation
 Operations management and business transformation
 Traditional and digital publishing and operations
 Print-to-digital transformation and adoption of new business models
 Software development and software services
Mr. Cairns holds an MBA (Finance) from Georgetown University and a BA from
Boston University. He has served on several boards and advisory groups including
the Association of American Publishers, Book Industry Study Group and the
International ISBN organization. Additionally, he has public and private company
board experience.
2
Michael Cairns
Strategy Consulting
New York, London, Melbourne
Tel: 908 938 4889
Michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com
Find me:
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram

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Michael Cairns established Information Media Partners in 2006 as a boutique strategy
consulting firm focused on the information and education publishing segment. The work
conducted by the firm includes product development, corporate development, sales
management and corporate reorganizations. We work with established businesses, private
equity owners and potential acquirers.
Examples of our work include:
 Reorganized and re-focused a $25 million software publishing company by aligning
business operations with client priorities; implementing internal collaboration tools and
project management standards; re-building executive team to focus on effective and
efficient management
 Defined a new business strategy for a large non-profit association and advocacy group,
expanding their business model into global markets to exploit their core knowledge and
expertise across a broader market
 Led an information technology capabilities review at a large international advertising
holding company. Completed over 200 interviews in 15 international offices and multiple
group focus sessions to define the operational ‘gaps’ between existing agency capabilities
and those necessary and important for client delivery by region
 Completed a sales management effectiveness review for a global software company and
defined six key project initiatives to improve sales effectiveness, market development and
account management
We approach our client engagements in a standardized, logical manner which creates the best
environment to identify key business drivers, administrative and logistical road blocks and/or
product or market definition issues. Our investigative approach leads to better insights into
your businesses and supports the development of workable solutions and recommendations
for success.
Visit the Information Media Partners website for more information.
Sample Client List

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Google book settlement
Summary findings from my report on the Google Book
project:
 Libraries will see tremendous advantages – both
immediate and over time - from the GBS, although
concerns have been voiced (notably from Robert
Darnton of Harvard)(4)
 Google’s annual subscription revenue for licensing to
libraries could approach $260mm by year three of
launch
 Over time, publishers (and content owners) will
recognize the GBS service as an effective way to
reach the library community and are likely to add
titles to the service(5)
 Google will add services and may open the platform
for other application providers to enhance and
broaden the user experience
 The manner in which the GBS deals with orphan
works will provide a roadmap for other communities
of ‘orphans’ in photography, arts, and similar content
and intellectual property
 Summary presentation
at NY law school
symposium on the
copyright implications of
Google’s library project
 Contributed to a
discussion about the
potential size of the
‘orphan’ issue based on
an analysis conducted
in 2008
 A link to this report is
located on the last page
of this deck

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Components of the Database
Assumptions on Content:
 Copyright books in the database
 Orphan books in the database
 Books ‘come out of the database’ based on:
 Not books
 Copyright claimed (left in or pulled out)
 Unclaimed/Orphans

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Data points on Title Count
From OCLC report & Grabois Analysis:
 18 million titles in Google Five (G5) Library Partners
 A 40% overlap translates to approximately 11million “unique” titles
 Over 3 million titles counted in German and French (400 languages counted)
 49% of G5 titles published in English: 9.2MM (includes UK and US)
 9.2MM/7.0mm = 76% US titles – Reasonable?
 Approximately 10,000 new titles produced per year between 1910-58
 80,000 title count reached in mid-1980s
 150,000 title count reached in late 1990s
 300,000+ titles count reached in 2007
 Estimate: 7 Million unique titles produced in the US
 3 million titles in Books In Print (40% of total 7million)
 OCLC: 75% of all titles published after 1945 and 50% after 1974
From Google:
 7 million titles
 4-5 million titles are under copyright scanned without authority
 Multiple editions of same work
 Works published between 1923 and 63 in public domain

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Conclusions (Best Guess) on title counts
 7 million unique titles
 3 million with clear provenance
 4 million – questioned:
 15% foreign: 600,000
 25% UK: 1,000,000
 Multiple editions 20%: 800,000
 Other (non-books, photo books, etc) 10%: 400,000
 1.2 million balance remaining:
 Estimate 50% will be claimed: 600,000
 Balance of 600,000 “true” orphans
• Less than 10% of 7 million title total

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Components of the market
 Components of Pricing
 Size of database
 Competitive pricing
 Unique characteristics
 Breadth of content
 Pricing for Libraries
 Assumes campus wide
access
 Based on expenditures not
FTE’s
 Note sales penetration
levels
 Library numbers from ALA
 Corporate
 Best guess
 Flexibility in model for pricing and
penetration
 Estimates are reasonable

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Summary database licensing revenue

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Next steps
 Further qualify estimates
 Estimate/Build business model for BRR and/or
Google
 Financial model
 Transactions/volumes
 Definition of potential additional revenue streams
 Pricing profile for ‘competing’ databases in
library community
 Aid in defining pricing
 Further estimation on size of Orphan market
 Discussion

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Please review my blog post associated
with this presentation:
http://personanondata.blogspot.com/2010
/04/database-of-riches-business-
model.html
Michael Cairns
Managing Partner
Michael.Cairns@InfoMediaPartners.com
908 938 4889
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram

Google Book Settlement: Symposium at New York Law School

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