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Green it overview jan 6 2011
This document discusses the challenges of global warming and climate change. It provides evidence that global temperatures are rising faster than expected, with 2010 being the warmest year on record. It notes that CO2 levels are rising rapidly due to human activity since the Industrial Revolution. Climate models predict further warming of 5-11°C by 2100, which would melt ice sheets and raise sea levels significantly. Urgent action is needed to transition to renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change impacts.
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Green it overview jan 6 2011
- 1. Information Change Managementand Global Warming Bill St. [email protected] otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
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- 5. Global warming since1970See the world heating up 1884-2010 in this new NASA animation. http://bit.ly/NasAni1970-19792000-2009
- 6. CO2 vs TemperatureRuleof Thumb: 1°C for 10 ppm CO2
- 7. Rapid Increase inthe Greenhouse Gas CO2Since Industrial Era BeganBlack Death Allowed Reforestation in Europe and North America reducing CO2Medieval Warm PeriodLittle Ice Age200018001400160012001000You are Here
- 8. Climate ForecastsMIT reportpredicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C
- 9. 11°C increase inNorthern Canada & Europe
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- 11. Last Ice ageaverage global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today
- 12. Most of Canada& Europe was under 2-3 km ice
- 13. Nearly 90 percent of new scientific findings reveal global climate disruption to be worse, and progressing more rapidly, than expected.
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- 15. Climate Change isnot reversibleClimate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removedGHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulatePlanet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissionsWeaver et al., GRL (2007)All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change
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- 17. Climate tipping pointsUSGSreport finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science“Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “
- 18. Future Droughts PalmerDrought Severity Index, or PDSI.
- 19. The mostsevere drought in recent history, in the Sahel region of western Africa in the 1970s, had a PDSI of -3 or -4.
- 20. By 2030Western USA could see -4 to -6
- 21. By 2100some parts of the U.S. could see -8 to -10 PDSI, while Mediterranean areas could see drought in the -15 or -20 range.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39741525/ns/us_news-environment/
- 22. Western Antarctic IceSheet (WAIS) Sits on land below sea level
- 23. Can easilybreak up once sea water gets under ice
- 24. Originally thoughtthat breakup would take hundreds of years
- 25. New evidenceindicates that breakup will happen within 40 years when planet warms up 1C (we are already up .8C)
- 26. S ea levelswould be 3.3m – 4.8m
- 27. Ice collapsed asrecent as 125,000 years ago
- 28. IPCC says iceis one of the poorest understood areashttp://news.discovery.com/earth/how-stable-is-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet.html
- 29. Ice sheets disappearing100 years ahead of scheduleProjected Sea RiseIce sheets disappearing 100 years ahead of schedule http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/15/deep-ocean-heat-is-rapidly-melting-antarctic-ice-global-warmin/Sea levels may rise 3x faster than predicted by IPCChttp://climateprogress.org/2009/12/09/sea-level-rise-six-feet-three-times-faster-than-the-ipcc-estimat/
- 30. Dramatic changes inprecipitationEvery continent has suffered record rainfalls
- 31. Rains submerged one-fifthof Pakistan, a thousand-year deluge swamped Nashville and storms just north of Rio caused the deadliest landslides Brazil has ever seen.
- 32. Observed increase inprecipitation in the last few decades has been due in large part to a disproportionate increase in heavy and extreme precipitation rates which are exceeding predictions made in modelsIncreased flooding and major storms Severe consequences from global warming are starting nowThe worst is yet to comeFlooding and major storms are the bigger threat in the near term than sea levelsNetherlands, Bangladesh, etc are long overdue for major floods comparable to Pakistan or AustraliaAre you ready?
- 33. …. this couldhappenEuropean DesertVeluweAmsterdamUtrechtRotterdamDen Haag
- 34. Urgency of Action“We’reuncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.”Nobel Laureate Paul Krugmanhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1
- 35. The Global ICTCarbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry TodayBut ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!According to IEA ICT will represent 40% of all energy consumption by 2030www.smart2020.orgICT represent 8% of global electricity consumptionProjected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
- 36. The Global ICTCarbon Footprint by SubsectorThe Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 www.smart2020.orgData Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging FruitPCs Are Biggest ProblemTelecom & Internet fastest growing
- 37. Education biggest contributorPeremployeePer sectorAustralian Computer Society Studyhttp://www.acs.org.au/attachments/ICFACSV4100412.pdf
- 38. Digital vs Traditionalappliances
- 39. Growth Projections DataCentersHalf of ICT consumption is data centersIn ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEYCoal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSecData centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
- 40. The Challenge ofEnergy EfficiencyMost current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processesNo question it save money, but does little for the environmentBut greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demandKhazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect)In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliancesNet effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliancesConsumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliancesThe issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy
- 41. Zero Carbon strategyessentialZero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastropheWith a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissionsAnything times zero is always zeroWind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deployNuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deployhttp://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry loadhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdfLocal wind/solar will be an important component
- 42. Case study ofhow to think Carbon instead of Energy EfficiencyElectric vehicles are more efficient and cleaner than gas powered automobilesIf there was a one to one replacement of gas guzzlers with electric vehicles then the world will be a better placeBut as demand from developing world for cars increases mostly likely will use electric vehiclesPrice of gasoline will drive demand for electric vehiclesMost electricity will come coal fired plantsElectric bicycles in China are now a major source of CO2 emissionsAs well, early indicators that electric vehicles in North America are being purchase as a second car, and are not displacing gasoline guzzlersNet effect is that electric vehicles globally will increase energy demand and increase GHG emissionsNeed to think differently and address the real problem of GHG emissions….
- 43. Electric vehicles versuselectric roadwaysBigger challenge is to find solutions to insure that all electric vehicles are only charged with clean energyUtilities are not motivate to do thisHuge capital costs in upgrading electrical transmission system to support demand from electrical vehiclesUtilities will continue to use cheapest energy where ever possible i.e. coalRather than charging vehicle at home or destination why not charge while travelling – “pathway charging”Roadside solar panels or windmills can charge electric vehicle as it is moving along roadwayAutomobile can be brought home fully charged to provide supplemental power to the houseBanks, drive through restaurants, shopping centers can also provide power to recharge the car batteries“Will that be an electrical charge with your burger?”http://www.solarroadways.com
- 44. Grand Challenge –Building networks using renewable energy onlyMost government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable?Ebbing wind or setting sunBack up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeksNeed new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service deliveryR&E networks and clouds can play a critical role Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power
- 45. MIT to buildzero carbon data center in Holyoke MAThe data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyokehttp://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center
- 46. GreenStar NetworkWorld’s FirstZero Carbon Cloud/InternetWorld’s first zero carbon networkNodes in Ireland, USA, China, Spain and Belgium to be added shortlyhttp://www.greenstarnetwork.com/
- 47. Source: European CommissionJoint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004Virtualization and De-materializationDirect replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact
- 48. CO2 Footprint ofApple products Most edge gear environmental impact is in manufacturing/shipping.
- 49. Configurationdetails and use cases can cause energy/CO2e to vary widely
- 50. . Servers arethe opposite of laptops. usage CO2e is a whopping 77% -91%of lifecycle CO2e.
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- 52. How clouds helpreduce CO2Accenture and WSP Study for Microsofthttp://www.microsoft.com/environment/cloud.aspx
- 53. Case Western pilotwith Kindle DXOne Kg of printer paper generates 4 Kg of CO2One Kg of newspaper produces 3 Kg of CO2Average textbook weighs 2 Kg CO2 cost is 10 Kg Not including shipping and transportationBabcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45,000 Kg CO2http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html
- 54. Information Management andGlobal Warming Disaster PlanningThe United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction has joined with the International Council for Science and the International Social Sciences Council to create a new international research program, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR). The program will address the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards. Methods to reduce risk and curb losses through knowledge-based actions need to be built on disaster risk reduction research integrated across the hazards, disciplines (including natural, socio-economic, engineering and health sciences), and geographical regions.Research will focus on the characterization of hazards, including how they will change with climate, vulnerability and risk and effective decision making in complex and changing risk contexts. The desired legacy is that when similar events happen in the future there are major reductions in the impacts and loss of lives.http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000385582
- 55. Final remarksThe problemwe face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissionsThink carbon, not energyWe must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 202080% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networksHuge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources
- 56. Let’s Keep TheConversation GoingE-mail [email protected] St. Arnaudhttp://green-broadband.blogspot.comTwitterhttp://twitter.com/BillStArnaud
Editor's Notes
- #30 Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructurePurchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line lossesDemand for green power within cities expected to grow dramaticallyICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES-Cooling also a major problem in citiesBut most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy siteICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe