webinos and Open Ecosystems Open Governance
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The document discusses the evolution of HTML5 and its role in mobile ecosystems, highlighting the fragmentation across platforms and the challenges it faces compared to native applications. It also examines the competition among major players like Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft in creating robust ecosystems that prioritize user experience and innovation. Additionally, the document presents the concept of open governance in open source projects, emphasizing the importance of transparency, community involvement, and the balance between control and collaboration.
webinos and Open Ecosystems Open Governance
- 1. Ecosystems & Openness George Voulgaris, Ph.D. VisionMobile Ltd
- 2. Agenda HTML5: Web as the new walled garden and why the web is waiting for a new leader Ecosystems battle across 4-screens Experience roaming drives user lock-in, cross sales and engagement Open Governance Driving innovation through openness and meritocracy
- 3. Sources http://webinos.org Downloads • Industry landscape, governance, licensing and IPR frameworks • Target Platforms, target Requirements and Platform IPRs • Landscape Analysis Update http://visionmobile.com Open Governance Index © VisionMobile 2011 | www.visionmobile.com 1
- 4. HTML5: Web as the new walled garden and why the web is waiting for a new leader
- 5. HTML5 is pitched as the future of mobile apps
- 6. …but what is HTML5, really? • A set of browser specs by 2 standard groups: W3C and WHAT – WHAT WG - Web Hypertext Application Technologies – The WHAT working group specs merge into W3C specs • Brings capabilities of web apps closer to those of native apps – UI tools, off-line storage, 2D graphics, plugin-free video/audio – geo location, speed and communication
- 7. Many benefactors, but no clear leader all pushing and hyping HTML5 for their own unrelated reasons • Apple looking to move the web away from Flash • Google searching for more ways to commoditize complements • Facebook aiming to break-down Apple/Google silos and distance Adobe • Microsoft to onboard web developers onto Windows 8 • Mobile operators hoping to regain control lost to native platforms • Qualcomm aiming to create a competitive advantage for its chips • Brands looking use web as a low-cost way to go cross-device and cross- screen • Adobe aiming to sell tools that facilitate web-to-native hybrid apps
- 8. But HTML5 is just past the peak of expectations • Fragmentation across platforms (iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone) • Challenged to compete with native user experience • Lack of distribution channels and monetisation for web apps
- 9. HTML5 is fragmented across platforms HTML5 Test Score iOS 5.1 324 BlackBerry OS 7 273 Android 4.0 273 Bada 2.0 268 Android 3.2 235 Android 2.3 189 Amazon Silk 1.0 174 Windows Phone 7.5 (Mango) 138 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Source: html5test.com, April 2012.
- 10. Andrew Betts of Assanka on app.ft.com: It took a full-time team of 3 developers at Assanka 8 months to launch on iPad, and that team a further 4 months to bug-fix the iPad and ready for distribution to Android tables. October 2011 hLp://www.tomhume.org/
- 11. HTML5 is a technology lacking key ingredients unable to compete with iOS and Android platforms Platform ingredients Software Developer Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem HTML5 ✔ = ✖ ✖ ✖ fragmented platform always a step behind native will depend on app store complex tool-chain waiting for a leader islands of developers Facebook? Google? Other ? using common language, but different API sets
- 12. Google & FB are building complete platforms Key adding missing ingredients on top of HTML5 enabling technology Software Developer ingredients Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem application Developers micropayments, app distribution app discovery, runtime, developer building and ad networks to end users promotion, tool-chain, & publishing apps and settlement through SaaS or placement, search platform APIs around the devices & software recommendations foundation HTML5 browsers Fragmented --- --- --- (fragmentation) HTML5 with web developers Google Checkout PC, Mac, Android, Chrome Chrome API Chrome OS Web Store HTML5 with Web and Flash FB Credits 900M Facebook FB app Facebook APIs developers users recommendations HTML5 may end up a yet another walled garden despite the promise of openness
- 13. Ecosystems battle Experience roaming drives user lock-in, cross sales and engagement
- 14. From converged networks to converged devices Ecosystems of service & apps
- 19. Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds Telecoms world Software world Success factor Installed base Number of apps Speed of innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS versions/year Time to market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks Type of services comms-centric catering to entire needs portfolio Risk-taking predictability / de-risking entrepreneurship / uncertainty Access to innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers Business model B2B licensing B2C sales/ads/in-app sales Channel to market voice, text and web smartphones Discovery On deck / on device App store First step “we need to sign an NDA” “we need to download the SDK” Process Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, Agile: add feature, build, test, QA repeat Attitude “developers will come to us” “we need to go to developers” Page 28 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 20. Changing channels & speed of innovation ')))$ ')")$ Operators Operators 18-24 months to launch 12-18 months to launch 5-10 major content publishers 100s of content publishers no innovation in voice, text and SIM App stores 2 months to launch 100,000s of developers 5000,000+ apps in 2 years Page 29 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 26. Networks effects stronger than economies of scale user value Platform business value grows exponentially due to increased number of interconnections Conventional business value grows linearly due to cost saving and decreasing price scale 49 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
- 29. From converged devices to roaming experiences Ecosystems of experiences
- 30. Evolving meaning of convergence From converged networks to converged devices, what’s next? 2005 2010 2015 one bill, one device, triple play 1,000s of apps vision ? focal point network device compete price of number based on service of apps
- 31. The new meaning of convergence is experience roaming across multiple screens experience roaming across screens Social circle Developer ecosystem User data roaming convergence = Service roaming x User interaction design Industrial design Brand
- 32. Apple is the poster child of experience roaming Apple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens Experience roaming Across screens Social circle Ping iPod Apps ecosystem App Store iPhone User data roaming MobileMe iPad Service roaming iTunes, AirPlay Mac User interaction design iOS Apple TV Industrial design Apple ? Brand Apple
- 33. It’s no longer about smartphones Key ecosystems are expanding across 4 screens PC smartphone tablet smart TV Mac computers iPhone iPad Apple TV Chrome browser Android Android tablets Google TV Windows, Office Windows Phone Windows 8 Xbox
- 34. Convergence in 2015 will be around ecosystems and experience roaming across many types of devices 2005 2010 2015 one bill, one device, one ecosystem, triple play 1,000s of apps 10s of screens vision focal point network device ecosystems compete price of number experience based on service of apps roaming
- 35. Competition will move to experience roaming competition will shift from number of apps to experience roaming • Mobile platform landscape will further consolidate around Apple and Google both ecosystems are propelled by strong network effects and protected by user lock-in • Microsoft will continue its push to become the 3rd ecosystem faces long uphill battle as it needs to win users back from Apple and Google ecosystems • Facebook will rally behind mobile web to become 4th horse driven by the need to weaken native platforms and disintermediate native app stores • Platform competition will shift from number of apps to experience roaming as all platforms will strive to reach users across all touch-points and devices
- 36. Open Governance Index A new way of measuring openness, from Android to WebKit KEY INSIGHTS A VisionMobile research report part-funded by webinos, an EU funded project www.DeveloperEconomics.com Published July 2011
- 37. So what on earth is open source? Four different perspectives to open source: - Legal: software under an OSI-approved license 60+ licenses are approved by the OSI. Including licenses submitted by Nokia, Microsoft, W3C, IBM - Business: a collaborative software development methodology For developing common building blocks - Product: a mid-point between build and buy (‘share’) You can build, buy, or share costs, risks and benefits - Marketing tool : a means of building a benevolent reputation used by Google in Android to buy community credence and good will - - Belief : a cultural movement for preserving developer rights. Against the proprietary control or private ownership of software which is created by the community Page 9 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 38. Open source is not a strategy! Open source is not: It’s about: ✗ about reducing costs.. ✔ about sharing costs & risks costs there are costs in ad-ons, integration, support,.. ✗ all or nothing.. ✔ a choice of 4 company roles: use, modify, distribute or contribute. ✗ a community builder.. ✔ reducing barriers to contribution attracting developers is about scratching an itch ✗ unlike 3rd party software..# ✔ the midpoint in build vs buy you can now build, ‘share’ or buy ✗ a virus to IP# ✔ There are tools to manage risk code scanning, license choice, technical/legal DD, .. ✗ a company strategy.. ✔ a product-level decision Page 10 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 39. Can operators manage the 6OSS of OSS? The six facets of facets - Software license governs use of the source code - Governance model governs use of the product (access, development, derivatives, community structure) - Community development autonomous vs sponsored culture, balancing corporate vs community interests - Upstream vs downstream development balancing code branching and merging - Econometrics of effort and influence metrics of influence and effort - Using open source within the organisation Inbound vs outbound policies and processes Page 13 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 40. Copyleft vs copyright The fundamentals behind open source licenses Foundation APL GPL LGPL EPL Prop. BSD Copyleft Copycenter Copyright Permission to reproduce, adapt Copy & use freely Prohibit from reproducing, & distribute but must share alike adapting, distributing Page 14 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 41. Governance vs licenses Governance goes beyond licenses. While licenses determine the rights to use, copy and modify, governance determines the right to gain visibility, to influence and to create derivatives of a project, whether in the form of spin-offs, applications or devices. Licenses'vs.'Governance'models' License' Governance' Visibility,'influence'and'crea:on'of' Rights' Use,'copy,'modify' deriva:ves' 70%'of'projects'under'7' Use' No'agreed'defini:on'of'governance' licenses' Examples' GPL,'LGPL' No'formal'examples' Legal' Binding' NonHbinding' Source:'VisionMobile'
- 42. Open is the new closed While: - Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood 5 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD) - Governance models are non-standard, diverging and poorly understood And while: - Licenses are about source control source code access, modification, ability to copy/reuse, contribution and distribution - Governance is about project control Codelines and content, contributors and committers, roadmap strategy and visibility, trademarks.. Page 5 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 43. Licenses vs Governance models in mobile, licenses converge but governance models diverge license type dual license (commercial + copyleft) Qt strong copyleft (GPL) Linux kernel weak copyleft Foundation (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..) different governance Foundation WebKit similar license permissive (APL, BSD, MIT, ...) Android open community managed community autocratic community governance model Page 6 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 44. Benefits of open source - Allows sharing of development costs and risks e.g. Linux Kernel worth over $600 million - Allows open-doors software standardisation allows standardisation through code which is more effective than API-level standardisation - Taps into a library of mature software, particularly on PC/Internet 260,000 projects on SourceForge of which 30,000 are in production phase - Reduces barriers to contribution within but only if designed within the governance model (like: Eclipse. unlike: Symbian) - Encourages innovation on top if employed properly (like: Android. unlike: Symbian) Page 18 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 45. Benefits of open source (continued) - Creates new value areas in software support and productisation Integration, testing and productisation are much more crucial in OSS than in proprietary software - Faster supplier negotiations and reduced supplier lock-in However licenses are generally non-negotiable, unless you can find the copyright holder - Better software quality through peer incentives Peer recognition incentive drives quality. Less so ‘given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow’ It’s about open source methodologies, not open source itself. Page 19 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 46. 6 + 2 business models for open source TRADITIONAL 1. IP royalties for commercial-licensed branch or add-ons, e.g. Trolltech 2. Productisation usually NREs for customisation and integration e.g. Tieto 3. Maintenance & support e.g. Funambol 4. Certification fees e.g. Sun TCKs 5. Bundling offer software for free but bundle services, e.g. Google 6. Try before you buy e.g. Volantis NEW! 7. Liability insurance e.g. WindRiver 8. Access to influencers e.g. Collabora Page 21 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 47. Open is the new closed Android gameplan
- 48. “A customer can have any colour he likes for his car so long as it’s black” Henry Ford Copyright VisionMobile 2011
- 49. “we are using compatibility as a club to make them do things we want.” Dan Morrill, Google in an email dated 6 Aug 2010 released via the Skyhook filings Copyright VisionMobile 2011
- 50. Economics of complements Microeconomics: Every product has substitutes and complements. Core Product Complement A product consumed with the main product Product demand increases as complement prices decrease Page 2 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 51. How Google uses complements Google Core Product Google Complements On-line advertising mobile networks handsets browsers Commoditisation of mobile increases demand for Google products Closed net open source Chrome, ad network neutrality OS WebKit Page 3 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 52. The Android control points How Google runs the show: - Private codelines (6+ months ahead) available to 2 OEM partners per release - Exceptionally fast pace of innovation 5 new versions (2 major, 3 minor) released in 1 year - Gated developer community Android Market is the default channel for apps - Closed-source apps Android Market, GMail, Google Maps, GTalk, etc under commercial agreement - Android trademark use of Android trademark subject to commercial terms - Controlled review process all reviewers work for Google, plus rampant NIH culture 109 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
- 53. Source: Google-internal presentation disclosed as a result of Oracle's patent and copyright infringement lawsuit against Google 24 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
- 54. A new way to measure openness Open governance index
- 55. Open Governance Index • OGI Report published in July 2011 • To date it has been downloaded over 7,000+ times • Cited in over 20+online journals including:- IT Writing, ZDNet, Wired News, BGR, MIT Technology Review, Slash Gear, Phandroid, ARS Technica, Linux Today, Mobile Trends, Computer Hyper, RPMfind, Fanatics Club Linux Life, Today-Google, Open Source This and PC Pro • Sparked numerous tweets from industry participants – Chris DiBona, Head of Open Source Programmes at Google; Open Source Advocate Matt Asay and Mike Milinkovich, Director of Eclipse – Discussions centred around the importance of openness and the growing importance of governance in open source projects as open source becomes more ‘main-stream’ • OGI Report positioned the ‘open’ governance of projects such as webinos as a strength versus the ‘closed’ governance of other projects
- 56. Open Governance Index • The OGI Report set out to quantify the ‘openness’ of open source projects in terms of – transparency, decision-making – reuse of code and community structure • OSS Projects analysed included:- – Android, Eclipse, Linux, MeeGo, Mozilla, Qt, Symbian and WebKit. • The Open Governance Index compared 13 metrics across 4 areas of Governance comprising – Access, Development, Derivatives and Community to determine the ‘openness’ of these projects. • Report identified common ‘Best Practices’ with regard to open source project management – Highlighted the importance of meritocracy in the long term success of any open source project
- 57. Open governance criteria (1/2) Access: how is code accessed and open to whom? • Is source code available to all without discrimination? • Is source code available under a permissive OSI-approved license? • Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all? • Is the project roadmap available publicly? Development: how is code developed within the project? • Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible? • Is the code contribution and acceptance Process clear and accessible? • Can you identify from whom contributions are received? • Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable? Page 7 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 58. Open governance criteria (2/2) Development (cont’d) • Can you identify who committers to the project are? • Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable? • Can you identify who committers to the project are? • Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a license) Derivatives: how is code used outside of the Project controlled? • Are Trademarks used to control compliance/use of the project? • Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained? Community • Do different community members have different rights? Page 8 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 59. Open governance: research findings 1. All successful open source projects are supported by commercial organisations success does not exist in a vacuum from industry 2. Successful projects are usually managed on the basis of meritocracy - except Google who have retained control on all aspects of the Android Project 3. Trademarks increasingly used to control platform compliance and protect branding 4. Open source projects use OSI approved open source licenses use of proprietary licenses rare these days 5. All Projects have very good Developer Support Mechanisms minimum requirement for a successful project 6. BUT Projects also differ greatly regarding culture transparency of decision-making; code contributions processes; project roadmap information and project metrics (details of contributors/committers etc) Page 9 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
- 60. Meritocracy, Open community, Open innovation, Open standardization webinos vision
- 61. Best practices of open governance Our research identified certain attributes that successful open source projects have. These attributes are: - timely access to source code, - strong developer tools, - process transparency, - accessibility to contributing code, and - accessibility to becoming a committer. Equal and fair treatment of developers – “meritocracy” – has become the norm, and is expected by developers with regard to their involvement in open source projects.
- 62. Impact of OSS on the development of the Internet All of the following initiatives have an implicit bias – some stronger than others – but all are biased to one or more actors in the market Android: Google Meego: Nokia-Intel Limo: Samsung Tizen: Samsung-Intel Apache: IBM Webkit: Apple The problem is adoption: • successful collaboration in open source is measured not by how much is developed, but by how much it is used. • Any initiative that is biased will cripple its growth of adoption • A company cannot put its strategic supply chain into the hands of its competitor
- 63. webinos vision • Cultivate an open source community that precludes overt bias. long term success, and ubiquitous adoption, is dependent upon: • day to day operations of the community to be as inclusive as possible • positively encourage new participants at all times • allow all to operate as peers. • move the innovation out from behind closed doors, and into a communal public space. • speed up the standardisation process, Minimise the commercial risk through collaborative innovation in a clean sandboxed domain.
- 64. get in touch Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. [email protected] @gevou George Voulgaris | VisionMobile Ltd | Business Partner | +44 2033 844 164 Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2011