How can we increase our capacity to predict ecosystem responses to environmental change?
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The document explores how to enhance predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes by analyzing habitat filtering and its impact on biodiversity and ecological function. It compares the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on beta diversity, revealing distinct patterns and the necessity of understanding historical contexts for managing stress tolerance in ecosystems. Insights from the study underscore the importance of functional diversity in predicting ecological responses and inform conservation strategies.
How can we increase our capacity to predict ecosystem responses to environmental change?
- 1. How can we increase our capacity to predict ecosystem responses to environmental change? Cayetano Gutiérrez-Cánovas; David SánchezFernández; Núria Bonada; Ian P. Vaughan; Steve J. Ormerod; Andrés Millán & Josefa Velasco
- 2. Odum (1985) Environmental Habitat filtering: change Response traits Community structure Community compositio n Diversity Ecosystem functioning Effect traits Ecosystem goods and services Beta-diversity gradients Regional diversity Population dynamics Community and ecosystem ecology: biodiversity-function relationship
- 3. Big challenge: Predicting the consequences of environmental change • Are there predictable patterns in response to chronic stress at ecosystem scale? • How habitat filtering modifies beta-diversity? • How habitat filtering shapes functional ecosystem features? • Can we get any insights from naturally stressed ecosystems?
- 7. How habitat filtering modifies betadiversity? GUTIÉRREZ-CÁNOVAS, C.; MILLÁN, A; VELASCO, J.; VAUGHAN, I.P. & ORMEROD, S.J. 2013. Contrasting effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on beta-diversity in river organisms. Global Ecology and Biogeography 22(7): 796-805.
- 8. Expected responses to increased stress (a) (b) NATURAL STRESS ANTHROPOGENIC STRESS Richness response species richness species richness Richness response stress intensity Assemblage response Assemblage response Site 1 1 2 3 4 Site 3 Site 4 Site 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Site 2 1 2 3 Site 3 1 2 8 9 10 Site 4 1 stresss Site 2 stress intensity
- 9. 100 65 55 50 45 35 Richness Salinity 150 Altitude P<0.001; R2=0.92 1000 2000 3000 P<0.001; R2=0.93 4000 4 6 8 10 12 m a.s.l. ln-Conductivity (mS cm-1) Acidity Metals 150 25 100 30 50 -7.0 -6.5 -6.0 pH -5.5 50 P<0.001; R2=0.91 15 20 40 30 Richness 35 60 40 200 Land use P<0.001; R2=0.64 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 ln-Copper concentration (mg L ) P<0.001; R2=0.83 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 arcsin-sqrt-Land use intensity (%)
- 10. Nestedness 0.25 0.30 2.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.5 2.0 3.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Land use Environmental distance 2.5 0.5 2.0 3.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.55 3.0 0.25 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.30 Acidity Metals 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.5 0.4 2.0 1.5 0.00 0.5 0.05 0.4 0.5 1.5 0.4 2.5 0.30 1.5 0.5 Salinity 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.00 0.5 1.0 2.5 0.1 Dissimilarity 0.5 Dissimilarity 1.5 0.4 Dissimilarity 0.5 Dissimilarity Turnover Altitude 0.05 0.4 0.1 Dissimilarity b-diversity 0.0 1.5 3.0 Environmental distance 0.0 1.5 3.0 Environmental distance
- 11. How habitat filtering shapes functional ecosystem features? GUTIÉRREZ-CÁNOVAS, C.; SÁNCHEZ-FERNÁNDEZ, D.; VELASCO, J.; MILLÁN, A. & BONADA, N. Similar functional diversity trends in response to natural and anthropogenic stressors.
- 12. • Predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change is one of the most challenging tasks for scientists • Historical stress set predictable conditions: adaptation • Novel stressors may be entirely new: exaptation? • Some traits arose in response to historical stress may provide tolerance to modern stressors • Some traits allow tolerating stress other are sensitive. • Common patterns of functional response may be expectable for a subset of traits
- 13. Why using a trait-based niche? • Advantages: –Mechanistic relationship with environment: ecosystem response and functioning –Lower biogeographical influence –Better across-taxon comparability –Development of adequate databases and statistical techniques
- 14. Objective We compared trends of functional diversity change of stream insects along stress gradients with contrasting historical persistence (i.e. natural and anthropogenic stresses) to look for general patterns in response to stress. Niche features: a. Mean taxon functional richness (tFRic) b. Functional similarity (FSim) c. Functional richness (FRic) d. Functional dispersion (FDis) e. Functional redundancy (FR)
- 15. Expected responses to increased stress (b) Functional similarity stress intensity (d) Functional richness Functional dispersion (c) stress intensity stress intensity (e) stress intensity Functional redundancy Mean taxon functional richness (a) stress intensity
- 16. Mean Taxon functional richness (tRic) Taxon 1 Taxon 2 Taxon 3 Taxon 4 Taxon 5 Taxon 6 a b c d f n å area i tRic = i=a n e
- 17. Functional similarity (FSim) Taxon 1 Taxon 2 Taxon 3 Taxon 4 Taxon 5 Taxon 6 a ab bc b c cd n FSim = 2 å areai i=ab n å area i i=a d
- 18. Functional richness (FRic) Taxon 1 Taxon 2 Taxon 3 Taxon 4 Taxon 5 Taxon 6 Area filled by the convex hull
- 19. Taxon 1 Taxon 2 Taxon 3 Taxon 4 Taxon 5 Taxon 6 Functional dispersion (FDis) 2 2 dist = ( x - xc ) + ( y - yc ) n FDis = å dist i=a n i
- 20. Functional redundancy (FR) Taxon 1 Taxon 2 Taxon 3 Taxon 4 Taxon 5 Taxon 6 a b c n FR = å areai i=a
- 21. 6 8 10 12 0.0 88 4 3.5 6 10 10 12 12 P<0.001; R2=0.13 P<0.001; R2=0.65 66 88 0.0 0.0 1 4 -0.5 7 -2.0 1 4 7 -2.0 -0.5 log(FR) log(FSim) 1.5 2.0 2 4 3.5 6 P<0.001; R2=0.35 66 10 10 12 12 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 P<0.001; R2=0.19 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 5 5 15 arcsin-sqrt(Land-use intensity) 15 log(Conductivity) FRic 1.0 Land use 2.0 2 FDis tFRic Salinity 0.5 6 8 10 12 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
- 22. 6 8 10 12 0.0 15 12 P<0.001; R2=0.36 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 12 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 P<0.001; R2=0.41 0.0 0.5 4 4 7 10 7 8 2.0 P<0.001; R2=0.69 6 P<0.001; R2=0.16 6 8 1 1 1.5 3.5 10 3.5 2.0 FDis 8 5 P<0.001; R2=0.72 6 log(FR) 1.0 Land use 15 5 FRic Salinity 0.5 10 log(Conductivity) 12 P<0.001; R2=0.23 0.0 0.5 arcsin-sqrt(Land-use intensity)
- 23. Null models
- 24. Conclusions 1. Natural and anthropogenic stressors generate contrasting patterns in beta diversity that arise through different mechanisms. 2. However, functional diversity components responded similarly to both types of stress 3. Four out the five niche features and nestedness showed non-random responses when compare with null models, for both datasets 4. These insights may help to predict the consequences of global change 5. Useful to elucidate the historical colonization of stressful habitats 6. Important conservation implications may emerge from these results
- 25. Thanks for your attention! Thanks to the members of the Ecología Acuática research group that contributed to collect and identify the samples and the authors who provided raw data in their publications, making possible to gather the databases employed in these studies. More info: @tano_gc and www.um.es/ecoaqua