How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections

Congressional Budget Office
2019 Social Security Technical Panel
February 15, 2019
Wendy Edelberg, Associate Director for Economic Analysis
Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis
How CBO Develops the Economic Projections
Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections

1
CBO
CBO makes baseline budget projections covering the next 10 years and
also the next 30 years. Underlying those budget projections are
economic projections.
The budget and economic projections incorporate the assumption that
current laws generally do not change.
CBO calls its 30-year budget projections “long-term projections” or
“the extended baseline.”
For years 1 through 10, the economic projections underlying the
extended baseline are identical to the agency’s most recent 10-year
economic projections.

2
CBO
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2018), Table A-1.
Average Annual Values for Demographic and Economic Variables
That Underlie CBO’s Extended Baseline

3
CBO
Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP in CBO’s Extended
Baseline
Growth in potential gross
domestic product (GDP) is
projected to be slower than
it has been in the past,
driven mostly by slower
growth of the labor force.
Percent

4
CBO
The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model, known as CBOLT,
is the main analytical tool that the agency uses to make its long-term
projections.
It consists of four components:
 A demographic model
 A microsimulation model that projects year-to-year changes in demographic
characteristics and economic outcomes for individuals
 A long-term budget model that projects federal outlays, revenues, deficits,
and debt beyond CBO’s standard 10-year budget period
 A policy growth model that produces the economic projections that
underlie the extended baseline

5
CBO
At its core, the policy growth model relies on a standard economic
framework called the Solow growth model. That model focuses on the
inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy:
 The amount of labor (measured in terms of the number of hours worked)
 The productive services provided by capital (including physical capital,
such as plants and equipment, as well as more abstract types of capital,
such as intellectual property)
 Total factor productivity (TFP)—which is often characterized as a
measure of technological progress but is actually a measure of unexplained
growth that reflects all economic developments other than the growth of
labor and capital
In the policy growth model, the Solow model takes the form of a Cobb-
Douglas production function relating output to the growth of the factors
described above as well as to labor’s and capital’s share of total
income.

6
CBO
For years 11 to 30, CBO uses its policy growth model to make
projections of how the economy would behave if current laws
generally did not change.
That model first takes projections of key economic inputs under the
assumption that beginning in year 10:
 Effective average and marginal tax rates are held fixed,
 Debt as a share of GDP does not rise over time, and
 Other scheduled changes in spending and revenues under current
law also have no effect on the economy.

7
CBO
In addition to the key economic inputs, the policy growth model
incorporates two more sources of information:
 Projected demographic variables
 Changes to spending and revenues as scheduled under current law

8
CBO
Because CBO projects the key economic inputs under the assumption
that scheduled changes in spending and revenues have no effect on
the economy, the policy growth model has a starting point before it
takes into account the ways in which scheduled changes in spending
and revenues under current law would affect the economy and in turn
the budget.

9
CBO
The projected key economic inputs include:
 TFP
 Labor force participation
 The unemployment rate
 The consumer price index for urban consumers, or CPI-U
 The GDP price index
 Interest rates on Treasury notes and special-issue Social Security bonds
 Average hours worked
 Earnings inequality
 Earnings as a share of compensation
The projections of those inputs are based on historical trends, empirical
analysis, demographic projections, and expert feedback.

10
CBO
Taking the key economic inputs (under the assumption that spending
and revenues under current law have no effect on the economy), the
demographic projections, and scheduled changes in spending and
revenues under current law, the policy growth model produces the
economic projections that underlie the extended baseline.
Those economic projections underlying the extended baseline
incorporate the effects of federal tax and spending policy and federal
borrowing on saving, interest rates, capital stocks, the labor force, and
inflows of foreign capital.

11
CBO
Economic variables projected by the policy growth model include:
 GDP
 Productivity
 The labor force
 Average hours worked
 Earnings as a share of compensation
 Real earnings per worker
 Labor’s and capital’s share of total income
 Real and nominal interest rates on Treasury notes and special-issue
Social Security bonds

12
CBO
Most economic variables that underlie the extended baseline are
projected to be relatively stable in the long term.
CBO begins to formulate the 30-year economic projections that will
underlie the extended baseline as it creates the 10-year economic
projections.
For most economic variables, the 10-year projection phases smoothly
into the long-term projection.

13
CBO
An example of a projected key economic input is the growth of TFP.
In the past, TFP has been marked by long periods of relatively
steady growth followed by abrupt transitions to substantially
different rates of growth.
In CBO’s current projections for the next 10 years, the growth of TFP
gradually increases from its recent low rate to a higher rate that is more
consistent with such long-term trends.
The growth of TFP is projected to reach the rate that equals its
weighted average from the preceding 25 years. (Twice as much weight
is placed on recent rates as on rates 25 years in the past.)

14
CBO
Weighted 25-Year Moving Average of TFP
The weighted 25-year
moving average of the
growth of potential TFP
equaled 1.2 percent in
2018.
Percent

15
CBO
To project the growth of TFP beyond the next decade, CBO uses a
different approach. That approach suggests that TFP will continue to
grow at a rate of 1.2 percent.
For that longer-term projection, CBO looks farther into the past than the
preceding 25 years. Since 1950, TFP growth has averaged 1.5 percent.
But with the exception of brief periods, TFP has grown more slowly in
recent decades than it did during the 1950s and 1960s; since 1990,
TFP growth has averaged a little more than 1.2 percent.
CBO projects that after the next decade, TFP growth will be slightly less
than its average rate since 1990 and considerably less than its longer-
term average. That projection reflects several considerations:
 A slowing of growth in labor quality, a measure of workers’ skills that
accounts for educational attainment and work experience
 A projected reduction in spending for federal investment under current law

16
CBO
Projected TFP
The growth of TFP is
expected to rise to
1.2 percent over the next
few years and then remain
at that level through 2048.
Percent

17
CBO
Growth of Labor Productivity
Taken together, CBO’s
projections of labor supply,
capital services, and TFP
result in annual labor
productivity growth that
is expected to average
1.5 percent over the 2018–
2048 period.
Percent

18
CBO
Another example of a projected key economic input is growth in
earnings inequality.
Growing wage inequality has increased the share of earnings that is
above the maximum taxable level for the Social Security payroll tax and
thus reduced the share of earnings that is taxable for Social
Security. (Because of the progressive rate structure of the income tax,
however, that increase in high earnings has produced an increase in
individual income tax receipts that has more than offset the decrease in
payroll tax receipts.)
CBO apportions shares of total wage growth to earners across the
distribution of wages. It uses CBOLT to project the share of total
earnings below that maximum that is taxable for Social Security.

19
CBO
Wage Income by Decile as a Share of All Wages
The share of wages going
to each decile has been
largely flat, except for the
highest decile. And within
the highest decile, the top
1 percent saw the largest
increase.
Percent

20
CBO
Share of Wages Earned by the Top 1 Percent of Wage Earners
To make its longer-term
projection of the share of
wages earned by the top
1 percent of wage
earners, CBO uses the
values produced by a
statistical model that
employs a time trend and
an estimate of slack in the
economy.
Percent

21
CBO
Share of Earnings That Is Taxable for Social Security
The projected share of
earnings that is taxable
for Social Security
declines through 2048 as
the share of wages earned
by the top earners
increases. In the final
45 years of CBO’s 75-year
projection, that share
remains constant.
Percent

22
CBO
CBO’s Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2017 and
Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees’ Projections
(December 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54711
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2018),
www.cbo.gov/publication/53919; see especially Appendix A
An Overview of CBOLT: The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term
Model (April 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53667
Joshua Montes, CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates,
Working Paper 2018-04 (March 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53616
Robert Shackleton, Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using
CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model, Working Paper 2018-03
(February 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53558
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