How is Transit doing in Canada - September 2021

How is Transit doing in Canada - September 2021

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  PRESENTER PAUL YOUNG CPACGA NOVEMBER 30, 2021 How is Canada Transit doing in Canada and the World
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  Paul Young -Bio • CPA, CGA (1996) • Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2) • SME – Customer Success Management • SME – Risk Management • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Emerging Technology • SME – Business Process Change • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Macro/Micro Indicators • SME – Supply Chain Management • SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform • SME – Internal Controls and Auditing Contact information email: [email protected] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/ SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
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   Large UrbanTransit / Monthly Trends  Large Urban Transit / Annual Trends  VIA Rail  Capital Investment  Mississauga Transit  Transit and Audits  Fleets  Data, analytics, and Platform  Summary Agenda
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   Transits areimportant to assist with moving people around from one location to another location  There are issues facing transit including the subsidies that government provide to support transit  Building more transit needs to include a proper risk management. There are routes being added that lose moneys which means more government moneys is required to support those routes  Transit needs to look at synergies including consolidation of transit systems within a geographic area  Govt need to bring back the non-refundable tax credit for Transit. This tax credit help the middle class  Liberal government killed the transit tax credit and then created a carbon tax rebate. The problem is the next impact of the carbon tax will mean on average families will pay $1,000 more in carbon taxes (ex of the rebate) Summary
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   Stats Canada- https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211130/dq211130c- eng.htm Large Urban Transit Stats
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  Source – StatsCanada Transportation Equipment • If transit purchased 400 new business a year then it would take 30 years to removed diesel buses from their fleet
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  Source - https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications VIARail The rail company wants to build a multibillion-dollar new network of dedicated passenger-rail lines in Ontario and Quebec, so its trains would no longer have to yield to freight trains on borrowed tracks https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/25/business-report-via-expected-to- overhaul-corridor-between-windsor-quebec/ Facts: 1. VIA rail already gets a sizable grant from the government - https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications (2017 In 2017 the total grants (operational and capital funding) were approximately $354M 2. High speed rail has to be viable - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/high- speed-rail-1.4915058 - There are other options to fund rail 3. High speed works in Asia to how the population is distributed – http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149608.shtml 4. High speed rail has been a failure in EU - https://www.ft.com/content/e77dc48e- 7894-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475 or https://www.euractiv.com/section/railways/news/eus-high-speed-rail-plan-is- ineffective-unrealistic-say-auditors/ 5. There are financing issues - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business- trends/Catalyst-or-catastrophe-Lessons-from-Asia-s-high-speed-rail-failures Summary The liberals never seem to do proper business cases as such throw money at winning votes and not whether a project is either profitable or viable without direct government subsidies.
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   TTC “TheCOVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an 80 per cent drop in ridership and a loss of $90 million in monthly revenue – money that is essential to sustain operations. In addition to the layoffs, the TTC has also implemented the following cost-saving measures:” Source - https://www.ttc.ca/News/2020/May/24_05_20NR_costsavings.jsp  Go Transit “A massive drop in ridership has forced the temporary layoff of 196 Bombardier workers assigned to GO Transit and UP Express, company spokesperson Annick Robinson says.“Regarding our work in Ontario with Metrolink, we have, since the beginning of the health crisis, been able to keep our team fully employed,” Robinson said in an email Thursday.” - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/covid-19-has-transit-services-pleading-for-money-from-federal- government-as-fare-boxes-run-empty or https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/huge-ridership-drop- prompts-layoffs-at-go-transit-up-express  Transit buses expansion - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-and-ontario-invest-in-public- transit-and-active-transportation-infrastructure-for-southwestern-ontario-residents-822839237.html  Brampton Transit - https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/government/2020/08/brampton- receives-funding-to-upgrade-transit-system COVID 19 Transit
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   Money forTransit - https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/7/historic-agreement- delivers-up-to-4-billion-to-support-municipalities-and-transit.html  Emergency funding - https://www.atu.org/media/releases/atu-applauds-emergency- funding-for-ontarios-transit-systems-encourages-other-provinces-to-make-the-same- commitment  https://fcm.ca/en/news-media/news-release/fcm-statement-the-2021-federal-budget “"Growing the Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund” Funding / Transit
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   Green Buses- https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/10/01/federal-investment-zev-bus-charging/ - It should be noted that over 82% of the power generation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/report-electricity-analysis-canada-and-the-world- 238885441 . Many municipalities want to eliminate natural gas. Natural gas makes up 9% of the power - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-next-for-natural-gas - https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-news/kitchener-council-calls-on-province-to-phase-out-gas- fired-power-production-2828118 - Kitchener has buses that run on natural gas or other fuels - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/grand-river-transit-expands-brt-fleet-with-an-order-from- new-flyer-665531563.html  Transit budget shortfalls - https://www.cp24.com/news/city-to-face-1-5-billion-shortfall-in-2021- budget-amid-unimaginable-financial-pressures-from-covid-19-report-1.5144626 or https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-finances-transit-revenues-deficit-1.5755267 Transit
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  Source – 2018- https://www.industryweek.com/technology- and-iiot/article/22025063/electric-buses-will- take-over-half-the-worlds-fleet-by-2025 Fleet / Clean Nearly half of the municipal buses on the road worldwide will be electric within seven years, with China expected to dominate the global market as it aims to cut urban pollution and support domestic manufacturers. The total number of electric buses in service is forecast to more than triple, from 386,000 last year to about 1.2 million in 2025, equal to about 47% of the worldwide city bus fleet, according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). “China will lead this market, due to strong domestic support and aggressive city-level targets,” wrote Aleksandra O’Donovan, an analyst for BNEF and author of the study. Source - https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric- bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects- around-world/ or https://autosphere.ca/fleet/2020/09/21/electric-buses- growing-towards-a-50-percent-global-market-share/
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   Financial Planningand Analysis - https://ibm.box.com/s/0fg1f62zrtjmvcwicu1bm6u6emwkle88  Close, consolidate, and reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/i7efp948qvb5l8bt96y8sigsup8yes2u  Analytics and Reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/fh9cns7sk3ffwhsqhazqpndz1kj3mqbk  Risk and Fraud - https://ibm.box.com/s/noi1j6ixzl6ralxkm4g0zzs911wf6s76  CloudPak for Data - https://www.zdnet.com/article/ibm-takes-the-next-step-with-cloud-pak-for-data/  Asset management - https://www.ibm.com/business-operations/enterprise-asset-management Data, AI and Platform for Transit
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   Transit systemsare heavily subsidized as such declining in ridership will force changes like reduction in routes or property tax increases or other policy changes  More and more investment by local governments into smarter cities - https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/smarter_cities/solutions/human_solutions/  More and more people are working remotely - https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-asking-employees-to-work- from-home-due-to-coronavirus-2020  Transit will need to adjust to new normal which could see a reduction in ridership as more people will work remotely - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-and-the-world  Uber and rural transit - https://www.straight.com/tech/could-uber-be-future-of-public-transit-in-rural-communities  COVID19 - https://www.macleans.ca/society/all-the-ways-the-pandemic-could-change-cities-forever/  Municipal shortfalls - https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/article/21209852/canada-to-invest-nearly-c15- billion-in-transit-over-eight-years or https://www.hamilton.ca/government-information/news-centre/news- releases/gtha-mayors-and-chairs-concerned-about-covid-19 What’s next