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AI, Robotics, and Smart Contracts

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Steve Omohundro

The document discusses the rapid advancements and economic opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, robotics, and smart contracts, projecting significant impacts across various industries by 2025. It highlights multi-billion dollar investments in AI technologies and the potential job disruptions caused by automation, as well as ethical concerns surrounding autonomous systems. The author emphasizes the need for careful management of AI development to mitigate risks and promote human flourishing.

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Smart Contracts Guide
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AI, Robotics, and Smart Contracts Steve Omohundro, Ph.D. PossibilityResearch.com SteveOmohundro.com SelfAwareSystems.com https://postmediacanadadotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/74383151_213293952.jpg
Economic Opportunities Arms Races Dangers Power of Mathematics Smart Contracts Legal Challenges Path to Human Thriving https://www.flickr.com/photos/danielfoster/14758510078/
Multi-Billion Dollar Investments • 2012 Foxconn - 1 million robots • 2012 Amazon – Kiva $775 million • 2013 Facebook – AI lab, DeepFace • 2013 Yahoo - LookFlow • 2013 Ebay – AI lab • 2013 Allen Institute for AI • 2013 Google – DNNresearch, SCHAFT, Industrial Perception, Redwood Robotics, Meka Robotics, Holomni, Bot & Dolly, Boston Dynamics • 2014 IBM - $1 billion in Watson • 2014 Google – DeepMind $500 million • 2014 Vicarious - $40 million • 2014 Microsoft – Project Adam, Cortana
McKinsey: $50 Trillion to 2025 http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to 2025 Work 24 hours/day No breaks, food, medical Don’t quit, get bored, get depressed Work anywhere Hazards OK Don’t leak secrets Work well with others Easy to replicate http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/
Foxconn Technology Group • World’s largest contract manufacturer • Assembles 40% of all consumer electronics • iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox, Playstation 4, etc. • 1.3 million employees, $8K salary • Employee suicides • “Foxbot” robots, cost $25K, 2nd generation now • Building 30K robots/year http://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-robot,19088.html
420 Chinese Robot Companies http://thestack.com/china-robot-market-overstimulated-291014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-robots-idUSL3N0RB2WX20141028
March 2015: China Brain http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/technology/article/1728422/head-chinas-google-wants-country-take-lead-developing Robin Li Yanhong, CEO of Baidu proposed a state-level Chinese initiative to develop AI “comparable to the Apollo space programme”.
Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025 Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis 10 million jobs http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/ http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5756852/googles-self-driving-car-isnt-a-car-its-the-future
Tesla: 90% Self-Driving in 2017 http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/http://www.flickr.com/photos/quikbeam/6896564084/ Google: Fully Self-Driving in 2020 Mercedes, GM, Volvo, Apple, Uber,… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car
https://d185ox70mr1pkc.cloudfront.net/post_image_teaser/1403883171000-uber-force.png World’s largest job creator: 50,000 per month http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-offering-50000-jobs-per-month-to-drivers-2015-3 Uber valuation: $41 billion, 20% of fares http://www.wsj.com/articles/ubers-new-funding-values-it-at-over-41-billion-1417715938 Center for research on self-driving cars http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/uber-to-open-center-for-research-on-self-driving-cars/?_r=0 36 second wait, $.50/mile, 100% of fares http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/
US Building construction: $960 billion/yr 5.8 million employees http://www.aisrenovations.com/gallery/Gallery-Photo-1.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction
April 2014: Chinese WinSun 3D printed 10 houses, 2100 sq ft, $4800 http://m.newsru.co.il/realty/20jan2015/3d_house_i101.html
Jan 2015: 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa http://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
https://osuwmcdigital.osu.edu/sitetool/sites/urologypublic/images/Robotics/robotic_surgery_table.jpg Health Care: $10 Trillion to 2025
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/smart-robots-will-take-third-jobs-2025-gartner-says/
Arms Races Faster Smarter More Confusing https://www.flickr.com/photos/tcmorgan/6376174539/ Military, Cyberwarfare, Business, Investment, …
50% of US Stock Market Trades are Automated http://www.thestreet.com/story/12773306/1/the-decline-of-high-frequency-trading-in-one-chart-stocktwits.html
2010 US Air Force Report http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100727-053.pdf “Greater use of highly adaptable and flexibly autonomous systems and processes can provide significant time-domain operational advantages over adversaries who are limited to human planning and decision speeds…”
http://presstv.com/detail/2012/08/25/258087/us-drone-strike-kills-dozens-in-somalia/ 87 Nations Have Military Drones
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iron_Dome_near_Sderot.jpg Israeli Iron Dome: 90% Interception Rate
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/US-Navy-Tests-Autonomous-Swarm-Boats-2014-10-05
http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=545385 http://www.buenaisla.com/tema/general-he-great-ocean-5945
http://www.thelocal.no/20141023/norways-killer-robot-technology-under-fire
Cyber Warfare http://www.solarnavigator.net/cyber_wars.htm http://defensetech.org/2012/06/20/were- slowly-starting-to-see-u-s-cyber-weapons/ http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/187992-snowden-went-too-far-by-revealing-the- nsas-monstermind-cyber-weapon
Hawking and Musk: Danger Warnings http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence -looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence--but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously -enough-9313474.html “Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.” - Hawking “We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes.” - Musk https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/495759307346952192
Unintended Consequences Chess Robot: Win lots of chess games against good players. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jiuguangw/4982409890/
Approaches to AI • Logic-based systems • Production Systems • Bayesian learning and decision theory • Neural Networks – Deep Learning • Genetic programming • Brain Simulation • Artificial economies • … Autonomous Systems: Take actions to achieve goals in ways not pre- planned by their designers. https://www.flickr.com/photos/pennstatelive/8972110324/
Rational Decision Making • Von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944 • Savage, 1954 • Anscombe and Aumann, 1963 Modern Approach to AI 1. Have utility function 2. Have a model of the world 3. Choose the action with highest expected utility 4. Update the model based on what happens http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_von_Neumann.jpg http://aima.cs.berkeley.edu/
Fully Rational Systems 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑁 Sensations Actions 𝑈(𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁) 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑁)Utility function: Prior Probability: argmax 𝑆𝑡+1,…,𝑆 𝑁 𝑈 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑡−1, 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 , … , 𝐴 𝑁 𝑅 ) 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 𝑆1, 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑡−1, 𝑆𝑡 = Rational Action at time t: 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 But it requires 𝑂 𝑁𝑆 𝑁 𝐴 𝑁 computational steps. It includes Bayesian Inference, Search, and Deliberation. The Formula for Intelligence!
Approximately Rational Architectures Computational Resources Utility Constant Action Stimulus-Response Simple Learning Episodic Memory Deliberation Meta-reasoning Self-Improving Fully Rational
Rational Drives 1. Self-protective 2. Goal preservation 3. Reproduction 4. Resource Acquisition 5. Efficiency 6. Self-Improvement http://www.flickr.com/photos/ahuett/2339608718/
The Goals and Intelligence of a System are Independent https://www.flickr.com/photos/robslaven/9336473331https://www.flickr.com/photos/elycefeliz/5447507623
Harmful Utility Functions 1. Sloppy – Good intentions, bad design 2. Simplistic – Unintended consequences 3. Greedy – Control all matter and free energy 4. Destructive – Use up all free energy quickly 5. Murderous – Destroy all other agents 6. Sadistic – Thwart other agent’s goals http://www.flickr.com/photos/alexindigo/3983133970/
Will superintelligences be all powerful? No! Limited by: Mathematics Physics Cryptography http://www.flickr.com/photos/psycho-pics/3464619346/
The Power of Mathematics • Specified hardware • Specified resources • Shut down • Limited self- improvement http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587
The Safe-AI Scaffolding Strategy http://jonlieffmd.com/blog/can-neuroscience-improve-education https://www.flickr.com/photos/eusebius/5482847332
The Power of Physics • Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation” • Margolus-Levitin theorem • Entire visible universe: 10^92 bits of storage 10^122 operations • The whole universe as a quantum computer can’t search 500 bits http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
The Power of Cryptography Post-Quantum Cryptography Zero-knowledge Proofs Indistinguishability Obfuscation Secure Multi-party computation Bitcoin Blockchain Energy Encryption
Governing Autonomous Systems Internal: Prosocial values External: Laws, Police, Economic Incentives https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/
Trusted Infrastructure • Constrained AIs • Trusted computation • Trusted communication • Trusted identity • Privacy and safety monitoring guarantees • Trusted money • Trusted reputation • Trusted voting • Trusted energy flows • Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/
2008: Cryptocurrencies • Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins • Decentralized consensus • “Blockchain” ledger prevents double spending • “Bitcoin miners” get paid for adding blocks • “Proof of work” prevents “Sybil” attacks • Current market cap: $3B http://blog.newegg.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg
2015: Smart Contracts • Ethereum • “Blockchain with a built-in programming language” • “Consensus-based globally executed virtual machine” • Contracts in Turing complete programming language EVM • Summer 2014 presold more than $18 million Ether • “Decentralized Autonomous Organizations” (DAOs) http://francebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ethereum.png
Legal Challenges • Self-driving liability • Trolley problems • Swiss art bot • Terrorist drones • Assassination markets • Extortion DAOs • Social Sybil Attacks • Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion https://spiritualmusclehead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/justice.jpg
Projects using AI/Robotics to: • Clean up pollution • Cure cancer and other diseases • Create cheap power, food, water • Prevent crime • Increase trust in police • Eliminate drudgery • Simplify the law • Improve learning • Create financial stability http://www.interiorholic.com/other/gadgets/ocean-robot-cleaner/ http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/2345 http://www.pouted.com/wp- content/uploads/2013/02/solar- power-robot-operation.jpg http://www.technologyreview.com/ news/428354/la-cops-embrace- crime-predicting-algorithm/ http://www.salon.com/2014/08/22/m ake_cops_wear_cameras_a_simple_w ay_to_hold_the_police_accountable/ http://www.elearning- technologies.com/artificial-intelligence/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/indykethdy/8065788169 If we can envision it, We can create it. We will find the Path to Human Thriving.

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AI, Robotics, and Smart Contracts

  • 1. AI, Robotics, and Smart Contracts Steve Omohundro, Ph.D. PossibilityResearch.com SteveOmohundro.com SelfAwareSystems.com https://postmediacanadadotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/74383151_213293952.jpg
  • 2. Economic Opportunities Arms Races Dangers Power of Mathematics Smart Contracts Legal Challenges Path to Human Thriving https://www.flickr.com/photos/danielfoster/14758510078/
  • 3. Multi-Billion Dollar Investments • 2012 Foxconn - 1 million robots • 2012 Amazon – Kiva $775 million • 2013 Facebook – AI lab, DeepFace • 2013 Yahoo - LookFlow • 2013 Ebay – AI lab • 2013 Allen Institute for AI • 2013 Google – DNNresearch, SCHAFT, Industrial Perception, Redwood Robotics, Meka Robotics, Holomni, Bot & Dolly, Boston Dynamics • 2014 IBM - $1 billion in Watson • 2014 Google – DeepMind $500 million • 2014 Vicarious - $40 million • 2014 Microsoft – Project Adam, Cortana
  • 4. McKinsey: $50 Trillion to 2025 http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
  • 5. Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to 2025 Work 24 hours/day No breaks, food, medical Don’t quit, get bored, get depressed Work anywhere Hazards OK Don’t leak secrets Work well with others Easy to replicate http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/
  • 6. Foxconn Technology Group • World’s largest contract manufacturer • Assembles 40% of all consumer electronics • iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox, Playstation 4, etc. • 1.3 million employees, $8K salary • Employee suicides • “Foxbot” robots, cost $25K, 2nd generation now • Building 30K robots/year http://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-robot,19088.html
  • 7. 420 Chinese Robot Companies http://thestack.com/china-robot-market-overstimulated-291014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-robots-idUSL3N0RB2WX20141028
  • 8. March 2015: China Brain http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/technology/article/1728422/head-chinas-google-wants-country-take-lead-developing Robin Li Yanhong, CEO of Baidu proposed a state-level Chinese initiative to develop AI “comparable to the Apollo space programme”.
  • 9. Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025 Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis 10 million jobs http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/ http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5756852/googles-self-driving-car-isnt-a-car-its-the-future
  • 10. Tesla: 90% Self-Driving in 2017 http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/http://www.flickr.com/photos/quikbeam/6896564084/ Google: Fully Self-Driving in 2020 Mercedes, GM, Volvo, Apple, Uber,… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car
  • 11. https://d185ox70mr1pkc.cloudfront.net/post_image_teaser/1403883171000-uber-force.png World’s largest job creator: 50,000 per month http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-offering-50000-jobs-per-month-to-drivers-2015-3 Uber valuation: $41 billion, 20% of fares http://www.wsj.com/articles/ubers-new-funding-values-it-at-over-41-billion-1417715938 Center for research on self-driving cars http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/uber-to-open-center-for-research-on-self-driving-cars/?_r=0 36 second wait, $.50/mile, 100% of fares http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/
  • 12. US Building construction: $960 billion/yr 5.8 million employees http://www.aisrenovations.com/gallery/Gallery-Photo-1.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction
  • 13. April 2014: Chinese WinSun 3D printed 10 houses, 2100 sq ft, $4800 http://m.newsru.co.il/realty/20jan2015/3d_house_i101.html
  • 14. Jan 2015: 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa http://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
  • 18. 50% of US Stock Market Trades are Automated http://www.thestreet.com/story/12773306/1/the-decline-of-high-frequency-trading-in-one-chart-stocktwits.html
  • 19. 2010 US Air Force Report http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100727-053.pdf “Greater use of highly adaptable and flexibly autonomous systems and processes can provide significant time-domain operational advantages over adversaries who are limited to human planning and decision speeds…”
  • 26. Hawking and Musk: Danger Warnings http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence -looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence--but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously -enough-9313474.html “Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.” - Hawking “We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes.” - Musk https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/495759307346952192
  • 27. Unintended Consequences Chess Robot: Win lots of chess games against good players. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jiuguangw/4982409890/
  • 28. Approaches to AI • Logic-based systems • Production Systems • Bayesian learning and decision theory • Neural Networks – Deep Learning • Genetic programming • Brain Simulation • Artificial economies • … Autonomous Systems: Take actions to achieve goals in ways not pre- planned by their designers. https://www.flickr.com/photos/pennstatelive/8972110324/
  • 29. Rational Decision Making • Von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944 • Savage, 1954 • Anscombe and Aumann, 1963 Modern Approach to AI 1. Have utility function 2. Have a model of the world 3. Choose the action with highest expected utility 4. Update the model based on what happens http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_von_Neumann.jpg http://aima.cs.berkeley.edu/
  • 30. Fully Rational Systems 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑁 Sensations Actions 𝑈(𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁) 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑁)Utility function: Prior Probability: argmax 𝑆𝑡+1,…,𝑆 𝑁 𝑈 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆 𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑡−1, 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 , … , 𝐴 𝑁 𝑅 ) 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 𝑆1, 𝐴1, … , 𝐴 𝑡−1, 𝑆𝑡 = Rational Action at time t: 𝐴 𝑡 𝑅 But it requires 𝑂 𝑁𝑆 𝑁 𝐴 𝑁 computational steps. It includes Bayesian Inference, Search, and Deliberation. The Formula for Intelligence!
  • 31. Approximately Rational Architectures Computational Resources Utility Constant Action Stimulus-Response Simple Learning Episodic Memory Deliberation Meta-reasoning Self-Improving Fully Rational
  • 32. Rational Drives 1. Self-protective 2. Goal preservation 3. Reproduction 4. Resource Acquisition 5. Efficiency 6. Self-Improvement http://www.flickr.com/photos/ahuett/2339608718/
  • 33. The Goals and Intelligence of a System are Independent https://www.flickr.com/photos/robslaven/9336473331https://www.flickr.com/photos/elycefeliz/5447507623
  • 34. Harmful Utility Functions 1. Sloppy – Good intentions, bad design 2. Simplistic – Unintended consequences 3. Greedy – Control all matter and free energy 4. Destructive – Use up all free energy quickly 5. Murderous – Destroy all other agents 6. Sadistic – Thwart other agent’s goals http://www.flickr.com/photos/alexindigo/3983133970/
  • 35. Will superintelligences be all powerful? No! Limited by: Mathematics Physics Cryptography http://www.flickr.com/photos/psycho-pics/3464619346/
  • 36. The Power of Mathematics • Specified hardware • Specified resources • Shut down • Limited self- improvement http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587
  • 37. The Safe-AI Scaffolding Strategy http://jonlieffmd.com/blog/can-neuroscience-improve-education https://www.flickr.com/photos/eusebius/5482847332
  • 38. The Power of Physics • Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation” • Margolus-Levitin theorem • Entire visible universe: 10^92 bits of storage 10^122 operations • The whole universe as a quantum computer can’t search 500 bits http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
  • 39. The Power of Cryptography Post-Quantum Cryptography Zero-knowledge Proofs Indistinguishability Obfuscation Secure Multi-party computation Bitcoin Blockchain Energy Encryption
  • 40. Governing Autonomous Systems Internal: Prosocial values External: Laws, Police, Economic Incentives https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/
  • 41. Trusted Infrastructure • Constrained AIs • Trusted computation • Trusted communication • Trusted identity • Privacy and safety monitoring guarantees • Trusted money • Trusted reputation • Trusted voting • Trusted energy flows • Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/
  • 42. 2008: Cryptocurrencies • Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins • Decentralized consensus • “Blockchain” ledger prevents double spending • “Bitcoin miners” get paid for adding blocks • “Proof of work” prevents “Sybil” attacks • Current market cap: $3B http://blog.newegg.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg
  • 43. 2015: Smart Contracts • Ethereum • “Blockchain with a built-in programming language” • “Consensus-based globally executed virtual machine” • Contracts in Turing complete programming language EVM • Summer 2014 presold more than $18 million Ether • “Decentralized Autonomous Organizations” (DAOs) http://francebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ethereum.png
  • 44. Legal Challenges • Self-driving liability • Trolley problems • Swiss art bot • Terrorist drones • Assassination markets • Extortion DAOs • Social Sybil Attacks • Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion https://spiritualmusclehead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/justice.jpg
  • 45. Projects using AI/Robotics to: • Clean up pollution • Cure cancer and other diseases • Create cheap power, food, water • Prevent crime • Increase trust in police • Eliminate drudgery • Simplify the law • Improve learning • Create financial stability http://www.interiorholic.com/other/gadgets/ocean-robot-cleaner/ http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/2345 http://www.pouted.com/wp- content/uploads/2013/02/solar- power-robot-operation.jpg http://www.technologyreview.com/ news/428354/la-cops-embrace- crime-predicting-algorithm/ http://www.salon.com/2014/08/22/m ake_cops_wear_cameras_a_simple_w ay_to_hold_the_police_accountable/ http://www.elearning- technologies.com/artificial-intelligence/