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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Climate change is causing rising global temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. This is impacting agriculture in India in several ways: 1) Cereal production is projected to decrease by 10-40% by 2100 due to rising temperatures, with wheat production decreasing by 4-5 million tons for every 1C rise in temperature. 2) Increased droughts and floods will make agricultural production more variable from year to year. 3) Rising sea levels could cause loss of land for agriculture and flooding in coastal areas.
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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
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- 2. Impact of ClimateChange on Agriculture
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- 4. There was acountry. People were happily living by fishing & other activities depending upon the surrounding sea. Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..& Heritage… Some how, some ambitious people had seen the future in advance. They had shelters in other country…They survived..(tsunami - Maldives)
- 5. According toIPCC..There are 20 countries around world in the verge of extinction..Due to rise in sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING
- 6. INDIA AND AGRICULTURE Population : 1 billion + % Share of Agri. in GDP : 42 % (1980), 34 % (1994),16.3%(2008) Area under Agriculture : 160 mha Population dependent on Agriculture : 65-70% Per capita land availability : 0.3 to 0.4 ha
- 7. INDIAN AGRICULTURE –STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES Strong strides made in increasing the production in the past 50 years, mainly due to adoption of HYV’s and other technological developments Subsistence agriculture with small land holdings and skewed distribution of land Wide variation in regional productivities Majority still depend on rainfed agriculture Frequently affected by extreme weather events such as droughts and cyclones Significant proportion of population still under poverty, mal-nutrition and chronic hunger.
- 8. CURRENT ISSUES INAGRICULTURE Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity for a large population Stagnation/decline in yields Diversification Quality and quantity of water resources Profitability: Increasing production cost and decrease in the price of commodity. Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 9. EMERGING SCENARIO: DRIVERSOF AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food Increasing urbanization Increasing rural migration, contract and cooperative farming Increasing competition for resources: land, water, energy, credit Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers, information and communication New technologies: Biotechnology, space and information technology Increasing privatization of agricultural extension
- 10. OBJECTIVES To knowabout the global warming and climate change scenario To know the impact of climate change on Agriculture To review the studies related to climate change
- 11. Global warming andclimate change
- 12. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM OCEAN Precipitation Sea-ice LAND Ice-sheets snow Biomass Clouds Solar radiation Terrestrial radiation Greenhouse gases and aerosol ATMOSPHERE The Met.Office Hadley Centre IPCC 2001
- 13. What’s causing thechanges? Burning of fossil fuels - creates CO2 Tropical deforestation - eliminates crucial carbon sinks Refrigeration and air conditioning machinery - creates CFC’s. Decomposition of waste, cattle Farming - creates methane
- 14. Increasing greenhouse gasestrap more heat
- 15. GJJ99 3 Hadley Centrefor Climate Prediction and Research The greenhouse effect SUN Some solar radiation is reflected by the earth’s surface and the atmosphere ATMOSPHERE Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere EARTH Most solar radiation is absorbed by the surface, which warms Some of the infrared radiation is absorbed and re-emitted by the greenhouse gases. The effect of this is to warm the surface and the lower atmosphere Infrared radiation is emitted from the Earth’s surface IPCC 2001
- 16. Climate change andits impact on food security, Rajegowda 2009
- 17. WHAT IS THECONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT SECTORS IN INDIA TO CLIMATE CHANGE? (SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN INDIA) Industrial processes 8% Wastes 2% Land use changes 1% Agriculture 28% Energy 61% Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 18. WHAT SECTORS OFAGRICULTURE IN INDIA CONTRIBUTE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? Rice cultivation 23% Manure management 5% Emission from soils 12% Enteric fermentation 59% Crop residues 1% Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 19. HUMAN ACTIVITIES HAVECHANGED THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE THE PRE- INDUSTRIAL ERA IPCC 2001
- 20. ESTIMATES OF FUTURELEVELS OF CO2 Year CO2, ppm 2000 369 2010-2015 388-398 2050/2060 463-623 2100 478-1099 Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Agarwal,2007
- 21. PROJECTED CONCENTRATIONS OFCO2 DURING THE 21ST CENTURY ARE TWO TO FOUR TIMES THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL IPCC 2001
- 22. WHO ARE THECONTRIBUTOR OF GREEN HOUSE GASES
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- 24. MOST OF THEGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ARE FROM THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES Europe Africa Japan, Australia and New zealand South Asia East Asia USA and Canada Latin America Middle East 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Region tons of CO2 eq/capita IPCC 2001
- 25. Climate change andits impact on food security , Rajegowda2009
- 26. To whomit isaffecting
- 27. Health effects Temperature -related illness anddeath Extreme weather - related health effects Air pollution-related health effects Water and food -borne diseases Vector borne and rodent borne diseases Health Effects Temperature-related illness and death Extreme weather- related (floods, storms, etc.) health effects Air pollution-related health effects Human exposures Regional weather changes •Heat waves •Extreme weather •Temperature •Precipitation •Heat waves •Extreme weather •Temperature • •Sea-level rise Contamination pathways Transmission dynamics - - - - rodent Microbial changes: Contamination paths Transmission dynamics Water and food-borne diseases Vector borne and borne diseases Climate Change Climate Change Changes in agro- ecosystems, hydrology Socioeconomic and demographic disruption Effects of food and water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious-disease and other effects
- 28. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARETHE MOST VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. IPCC 2001
- 29. IMPACT OF CHANGESIN CONCENTRATION OF GHG’S
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- 31. VARIATION OF THEEARTH’S SURFACE FOR THE PAST 140 YEARS... IPCC 2001
- 32. THE RAISE INAVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE BY 1.3°C IN THE STATE OF KARNATAKA DURING 1950 TO 1990 HAS BEEN OBSERVED Fig: Increase in the mean temperature of Karnataka state Climate change and its impact on food security 2009
- 33. LAND AREAS AREPROJECTED TO WARM MORE THAN THE OCEANS WITH THE GREATEST WARMING AT HIGH LATITUDES Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC IPCC 2001
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- 35. FIG: NORMAL MONTHLYRAINFALL IN KARNATAKA STATE Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009
- 36. 500 900 1300 50 60 7080 90 2000 2010 2020 Years Rainfall (mm) Fig. 9: Declining trend of mean annual rainfall for the period from 1950 to 2006 in Karnataka State Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al .2009
- 37. Fig. 14: Shiftsin monthly rainfall pattern observed at different places in Karnataka Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009
- 38. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS HAVECHANGED IPCC 2001
- 39. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSFOR INDIA Year Season Increase in Temperature, o C Change in Rainfall, % Lowest Highest Lowest Highest Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36 2020s Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10 Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82 2050s Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52 Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50 2080s Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18 Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 40. IMPACT OF DROUGHTON INDIAN FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION FROM 1950-2007 Climate change and its impact on food security , Rajegowda et al.2009
- 41. IMPACTS OF CLIMATECHANGE
- 42. RISE IN THESEA LEVEL IPCC 2001
- 43. One third ofthe world’s population is now subject to water scarcity Population facing water scarcity will more than double over the next 30 years Climate change is projected to decrease water availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions
- 44. Climate change willintensify the loss of biodiversity Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years
- 45. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) has increased, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes are main reasons. Temperature will increase by 1.8-6.40 C by 2100 .Greater increase in rabi Precipitation likely to increase in kharif Snow cover is projected to contract More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.
- 46. OTHER OBSERVATIONS OFCHANGE IN GLOBAL CLIMATE Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.
- 47. OTHER CHANGES INGLOBAL CLIMATE IN FUTURE Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation. Snow cover is projected to contract. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 meters by 2020.
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- 49. IMPACT ON……. Agriculture:In Rajasthan 2oc rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10- 15%. Land and soil health: Soil organic matter will decline as temperatures are elevated. • Infestation of pests and weeds. • As a result of decline in OM, soils will become more acidic, nutrients will become depleted, microbiological diversity will diminish and a decline in soil structure will result in less WHC.
- 50. CONT… Biodiversity: Climatechange, in the medium to long term, will affect biodiversity. The distribution and population of many species will change, for example, western Indian coastline, tropical ecosystems and species such as mangroves and coral reefs are threatened by changes in temperature, rising sea levels and increased concentration of CO2 Pests and diseases: Plant and animal(human) diseases and insect distributions are likely to change. For example, 1994 Surat in Gujarat was hit by plague results in 59 deaths. Increase in the population of locusts
- 51. Cont….. Animal healthand production: Within the livestock sector, changes in rainfall and temperature will impact animal health due to the: Influence on distribution, competence and abundance of vectors and ectoparasites. As increased rainfall and heavy flooding form part of the climate change scenario, high chance that RVF could increase in frequency. RVF can cause acute abortions in livestock and is danger to animals.
- 52. PROJECTED IMPACTS OFCLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 53. Cont….. Increased water,shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration and harvests. Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 54. PREDICTED EFFECT OFCLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS Climate element Expected change by 2050 Confidence in prediction Effect on agriculture CO2 Increase from 360 PPM to 450 – 600 PPM Very high Good for crops Increased photosynthesis Reduced water use Sea level rise Rise by 10-15cm Very high Loss of land Coastal erosion Flooding Stalinization of ground water Temperature Rise by 1-2 OC Increased frequency of heat waves High Faster or shorter growing seasons Heat stress risk Increased Evapotranspiration Precipitation Seasonal changes by + or – 10% Low •Drought •Soil problem •Water logging storminess Increased wind speeds, more intense rainfall events Very high Lodging Soil erosion Reduced infiltration of rainfall IPCC 2001
- 55. IMPACTS ON INDIANAGRICULTURE –LITERATURE Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS model and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops and showed decline in yield.
- 56. FIG: OPTIMUM CROPGROWTH PERIOD WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE Climate change and its impact on food security, Rajegowda, 2009
- 57. Fig. 13: Annual/monsoonRainfall variability and total food production in Karnataka Climate change and its impact on food security Rajegowda, 2009
- 58. POTENTIAL IMPACT OFCLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN INDIA 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Production , Mtons Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)
- 59. IMPACT OF CLIMATECHANGE ON RAINFALL AND AGRICULTURAL YIELD IN TAMIL NADU Year Overall rainfall(mm) Yield rate (kgs /ha) Normal Actual paddy millets pulses Food grains oilseeds Cotton (bales of 170kgs) Sugarc ane(ton /ha) 2001-02 974.7 795.2 (-18.4) - - - - - - - 2002-03 964.1 731.0 (-24.2) 2359 958 356 1598 1284 188 9244 2003-04 961.8 1034.6 (7.6) 2308 983 375 1520 1387 213 9198 2004-05 961.9 1078.8 (12.2) 2703 1053 367 1870 1484 244 110 2005-06 958.5 1304.1 (34.1) 2541 850 337 1844 1527 260 105 Southern Economist 2009
- 60. SIMULATED IMPACT OFGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATED RICE YIELDS IN NORTH INDIA -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Change in grain yield, % Minimum Maximum Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal.2009
- 61. SIMULATED IMPACT OFGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATED WHEAT YIELDS IN NORTH INDIA -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Change in grain yield, % Minimum Maximum Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal,2009
- 62. SIMULATED IMPACT OFGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFED WHEAT YIELDS IN CENTRAL INDIA -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Change in grain yield, % Minimum Maximum Climate change: impacts on Indian Agriculture-Biswalit Biswal
- 63. Is it possibleto cope up with…………..
- 64. Sustainable consumption isbetter than sustainable development
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