Impact of the PSNP (2006-2021)

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety
Net Program (PSNP)
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI)
Sudan Strategy Support Program
2022 Annual Research and Policy Conference
Khartoum, Sudan
October 10, 2022

The PSNP – Features
 Focus – Rural PSNP, recent urban one introduced
 The PSNP – Objectives and Components
 Aims to smooth consumption (protect assets) through transfers in
chronically food insecure communities (targeting)
 Has two components: Public Works (PWs) and Direct Support
(DS);
 Builds community assets – soil and water conservation (SWC),
irrigation, roads, schools, clinics… – through PWs projects
 The PSNP – Duration, Size
 Multi-year, multi-donor – coordination between GoE and donors;
 Large – up to 8 million beneficiaries; Budget ~US$0.5 billion/year
 The PSNP – M&E
 Independent and collaborative monitoring and evaluation in the
design;

PSNP Impact Evaluation – Coverage
 Rigorous and regular evaluation of the PSNP by IFPRI
and collaborators (2006-2021)
 Regular evaluation dimensions:
 Process – targeting, payments, implementation
capacity, …
 Outcomes – food insecurity (food gap, food
expenditure), asset accumulation (TLU, house quality),
 Other evaluation dimensions:
 Nutrition (child anthropometry, household diet
diversity);
 Vulnerability and resilience – key targets;
 Local economy (general equilibrium) effects –
productivity, growth;
3

PSNP Impact Evaluation – Approaches and Data
 Approaches
 matching and difference-in-difference, no RCT (except the LTP);
 instrumental-variables household fixed effects estimator;
 LEWIE model with econometric estimation of the yield impact of
SWC structures
 Data
 Core: Household surveys – large, representative, comparable,
comprehensive (production, consumption, marketing, PSNP
participation, …);
 Additions to core:
o Woreda and Kebele level data - Local economy features and
PSNP implementation processes
o qualitative data and analysis – FGDs, KII, Case histories … at
the regional, and selected woreda and kebele levels
4

5
The PSNP – Impact Summary
 Food security – improved food security, as measured by the food
gap, particularly in the highlands;
 Disincentive effects:
 does not reduce labour supply,
 does not appear to crowd out private transfers.
 Livelihoods and asset creation - mixed evidence;
 Resilience – some evidence that the beneficiaries rebound after a
shock sooner;
 Economy-wide effects - the benefits of PSNP significantly exceed the
cost of PSNP transfers due to multipliers via local and national
markets;

The PSNP Impact – Child Nutrition
 PSNP improved household level (calorie) availability and food
security as well as dietary diversity at the household level.
 Improvements were not seen at the child level.
 Little change in child nutritional outcomes due to PSNP;
 Child diet quality remains poor.
 Missing link – nutrition knowledge of mothers and the
household at large:
 little improvements in nutrition and hygiene related
outcomes recorded;
 limited implementation of the nutrition sensitive provisions
appears responsible;

7
The PSNP – Challenges
 PSNP improved household level (calorie) availability, food security,
and dietary diversity at the household level. Improvements at the
child level proved difficult.
 Graduation – cannot happen with PSNP alone;
 Innovations – the Livelihoods component, the livelihoods transfer
programme (LTP) – a variant of the graduation model;
 Geographic and community targeting works, but proved problematic
in the lowlands;
 Timeliness of payments – a major problem initially, much improved
over time, evidence of some relapse in more recent years;
 Sustainability – resources, coverage; increasing role of GoE in
financing;

8
The PSNP – Messages
 Large social protection programme can be operated in a poor
country, even without means-tested targeting;
 Commitment and coordination indispensable – GoE (at different
levels), development partners;
 Independent, rigorous, and regular evaluation vital;
 Genuine dialogue, learning and redesign essential;
 Complementarity – addressing emergency, enhancing resilience,
and promoting development
 Considerable food insecurity and vulnerability remains even with
PSNP – ultimately only economic transformation can permanently
reduce vulnerabilities (“Emergency is a failure of development”);

References
Evaluation Reports – 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021 (years evaluation
conducted)
Journal Articles
 Lind et. al (2021). Development and Change, forthcoming.
 Berhane et. al (2014). Economic Development and Cultural Change, volume 63:1,
2014, pages 1-26.
 Hoddinott, et. al (2012). Journal of African Economies, Volume 21, Issue 5, pp.761-
786.
 Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse (2009). Journal of Development Studies, Volume 45,
Issue 10, 2009, pp. 1684–1706.
Book chapters
 Hoddinott and Taffesse (2019).” chapter 24 in Cheru, Fantu, Christopher Cramer,
and Arkebe Oqubay (eds.) (2019). The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy,
Oxford University Press.
 Hoddinott et. al (2013) in Rahmato, Dessalegn, Alula Pankrust, and Jan-Gerrit van
Uffelen, Food Security, Safety Nets and Social Protection in Ethiopia, Forum for
Social Studies.
 Coll-Black et. al (2012) in Dorosh, Paul, and Shahidur Rashid (eds.), Food and
Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges, University of Pennsylvania
Press (in collaboration with IFPRI).
 Hoddinott, Gilligan, and Taffesse (2010) in Sudhanshu Handa, Stephen Devereux,
and Doug Webb, eds. Social Protection for Africa’s Children, (Routledge).

Impact of the PSNP (2006-2021)

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