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Improving Product Design with Futurism at ORACLE
- 1. UXDX2 4 1 Integrating Strategic Foresight into Product Design JODKAFTAN HEAD OF PRODUCT DESIGN, ORACLE NYC, MAY 17th, 2024
- 2. UXDX2 4 2 CONTENT Part 1:Theory Foresight and Futures Thinking Foundations Part 2: Practice Integrating Foresight into the Enterprise
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- 4. Our species is misnamed.Though sapiens defines us as ‘wise,’ what humans do especially well is prospect the future. We are Homo prospectus. —MARTIN SELIGMAN, HOMO PROSPECTUS
- 5. Futures thinking isa mindset that involves exploring potential future scenarios, trends, and drivers of change. It is a creative and exploratory process that acknowledges uncertainty and considers multiple possible futures: FUTURES THINKING Strategic foresight is a structured and systematic approach used by organizations to anticipate and prepare for potential future opportunities and challenges. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT Defining Strategic Foresight & Futures Thinking
- 6. Drivers are ”tides”or, underlying factors in the present that shape the future with deep roots in historical patterns of change. They can be cultural, economic, technological, or environmental —but most often they are a combination of these forces. Futures Vocabulary Drivers & Signals Signals are “waves,” or a “hit” when we scan our surroundings for evidence of a ‘”specific example the future happening today.” A signal is often a recent small or local innovation (a new product, service, initiative, policy, datapoint, social convention or technology) with the potential to affect how we we might live in the future.. Drivers Signals
- 7. patter n www.yoursite.co m 7 Examples of Some Recent Signals DistributedMobile Solar Grids The next wave of economic justice provides energy access to the unhoused Cell-Cultured Sushi Creates the potential to spare billions of living creatures from overfishing and reduced use of precious land resources used to feed fish Floating Cities United Nations unveiled a design for a new floating city that can withstand category five hurricanes
- 8. The Two ImaginationMindsets for Futures Thinking Positive Imagination Shadow Imagination Both are necessary
- 9. patter n www.yoursite.co m Futures are Prototyped with Scenarios Thereare a few types of futures scenarios—fiction, recollection and history. All have their value. Ultimately they all tell a story so the future becomes more credible. A fiction is a familiar presentation language for readers, and they can more readily grasp the changes to one’s life that emerge from the scenario. A story model lets you describe some of the more nuanced aspects of a scenarist future DESIGN FICTION
- 10. DEVELOPMENTAL (PROTECT) EVOLUTIONARY (EXPERIMENT) The Foresight PracticeModel is Evolutionary-Developmental The central purpose of developmental processes is to protect the system, to predictably advance a complex system and ensure that past successful evolutionary experiments are protected and maintained.. DEVELOPMENTAL The central purpose of evolutionary processes, whether viewed by organisms, in organizations, or in societies, is to experiment in unpredictable ways, to fail often, and ideally, to learn from failures. EVOLUTIONARY
- 11. DEVELOPMENTAL (PROTECT) EVOLUTIONARY (EXPERIMENT) The Foresight PracticeModel is Evolutionary-Developmental D i v e r g e C o n v e r g e D i v e r g e C o n v e r g e Problem Space Solution Space
- 12. The Foresight Hourglass Greenmarketing is a practice whereby companies seek to go above and beyond traditional marketing by promoting. PAST FUTURE FUTURE PRESENT HINDSIGHT INSIGHT FORESIGHT FUTURE PAST PRESENT X Preferred Future (The Good) Possible Futures (The Beautiful) Probable Futures (The True)
- 13. patter n www.yoursite.co m Every society facesnot merely a succession of probable futures, but an array of possible futures, and a conflict over preferable futures. —AlVIN TOFFLER, FUTURE SHOCK UXDX2 4
- 14. The Foresight Pyramid Foresightimpact is achieved through the integration of rational and emotional processes in living systems. PAST Preferred Future Possible Future Probable Future DEVELOPMENTAL EVOLUTIONARY D Opportunity-Focuse d Values-based Political Collaborative Utilitarian More Art Empirical Divergent Exploratory Indeterminate More Science Rational Logical Convergent Deterministic Preventable Future Threat-focused Risk-focused Political Skeptical Preventable Then, Sentiment Contrasting First, Predictive Contrasting 1 2 3 4
- 15. Foresight Considers 6 Domains Self TeamOrganization Society Global Universal
- 16. The Foresight Four-StepLFAR Loop is Oddly Reminiscent of … Strategic Foresight Design Thinking
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- 18. UXDX2 4 INTRODUCTION Why Design &Foresight? 1 8 Let’s start with two relevant definitions of design: "Everyone designs who devises courses of action aimed at changing existing situations into preferred ones." —Herb Simon "The work of design is to give is to give form to things." —Christopher Alexander
- 19. MANAGING UNCERTAINTY AND THEUNPREDICTABLE ALIGNING WITH EXISTING PROCESSES SHORT TERM REVENUE PRESSURE TENSION BETWEEN INNOVATION & RISK Typical Barriers to Long-Term Thinking
- 20. LEARN FORESEE ACT SignalsGuild Horizon STEEP Scan Retrofuturist Analysis Futures Wheel Scenarios Future Artifacts Futures Workshop Third Horizon Integration Action Roadmap Foresight Interventions You Can Do Now
- 21. patter n www.yoursite.co m SIGNALS GUILD What: Createa cross-functional tribe of Futurists that are regularly collecting signals related to your product/industry. Signals can be shared over Slack/Teams and then discussed prioritized in regular f2f check-ins Good For: Managing uncertainty and the unpredictable HORIZON STEEP SCAN What: Capture signals around a central question (i.e. “how might Americans commute to work in the future?” through STEEP lenses, evaluate the impact and extract opportunities. Good For: Managing uncertainty and the unpredictable RETROFUTURIST ANALYSIS What: This is an activity in which you look back to look forward with the purpose of understanding how historic futurist movements envisioned progress—including what change they foresaw and why, as well as the unintended consequences in their pov. Good For: Short-Term Revenue Pressure
- 22. patter n www.yoursite.co m FUTURES WHEEL What: TheFutures Wheel is a visual representation that resembles a wheel, with the central event or idea at its core and multiple spokes branching out to explore related consequences. Provides a structured approach to exploring a wide range of consequences and their relationships Good For: Managing uncertainty and the unpredictable SCENARIOS What: Scenarios in strategic foresight are alternative, plausible, and equally likely futures developed to anticipate and prepare for potential challenges that may impact a project or organization. Scenario planning is a tool for simplifying complexity and gaining strategic insight into wicked problems, rather than predicting the future or forecasting trend Good For: Managing uncertainty and the unpredictable FUTURES ARTIFACTS What: This is an activity in which you look back to look forward with the purpose of understanding how historic futurist movements envisioned progress—including what change they foresaw and why, as well as the unintended consequences in their pov. Good For: Managing uncertainty and the unpredictable
- 23. patter n www.yoursite.co m FUTURES WORKSHOP What: Bringtogether a x-functional group through the foresight/futures end-to-end process —from signals to action roadmap in a single workshop. Good For: Aligning with existing processes THIRD HORIZON INTEGRATION What: The Third Horizon (H3) specifically focuses on transformative emerging changes, ideas about possible futures, and visions of preferred futures. It represents the long-term successor to the current state of affairs (business-as-usual) and is characterized by completely new opportunities that grow from fringe activities in the present Good For: Short-term revenue pressure ACTION ROADMAP What: AR is a practical instrument within the IFTF's toolkit that guides users to work backwards from their envisioned future to the present, identifying specific steps they can take today, this month, this year, and this decade to make a significant impact on the future3. Good For: Short-Term Revenue Pressure
- 24. patter n www.yoursite.co m 24 How-To/Learning References LEARN HORZON STEEPSCAN - Link RETROFUTURIST ANALYSIS - Link FORESEE ACT FUTURES WHEEL - Link SCENARIOS - Link SIGNALS GUILD- Link FUTURES ARTIFACTS - Link FUTURES WORKSHOP - Link THIRD HORIZON INTEGRATION - Link ACTION ROADMAP - Link
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