Investment decision
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This document discusses capital budgeting and methods for evaluating long-term investment projects. It defines capital budgeting as evaluating investments that maximize owner wealth over multiple years. Several evaluation methods are described, including payback period, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and profitability index (PI). The document recommends using NPV, as it considers all cash flows and their timing, incorporating the time value of money to determine the true profitability of investments.
Investment decision
- 1. Long Term Investment Decisions -Capital Budgeting By : Anmol Saini
- 2. Outline What is Capital Budgeting? Classification of investment Stages in Capital Budgeting Process Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting Methods of Evaluating Investment Proposals Payback Period Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Summary and Conclusions
- 3. What is Capital Budgeting? Capital Budgeting is the process of evaluating and selecting long-term investment projects that achieve the goal of owner wealth maximization. Features of investment decision: 1. exchange of current funds for future benefits 2. funds are invested in long term assets 3. future benefits will occur to firm over a series of year The purposes of Capital Budgeting Projects include: to expand, replace, or renew fixed assets over a long period. requires intensive planning As It involve commitment of financial resources to a project on a long-term basis, it is important that a firm makes the right decision. A wrong decision can lead to huge financial distress and even bankruptcy for a firm. The longer the time horizon associated with a capital expenditure, the greater the uncertainty ( outflow and inflow, product life, economic conditions, cost of capital, technological change)
- 4. Classification of Investment Decisions Type I: a: expansion and diversification - adding capacity to expand existing operations - expand by adding a new business or new product b: replacement and modernization - to improve operational efficiency and reducing the cost Type II: a: mutually exclusive( serve same purpose, compete with each other) b: independent(different purposes, do not compete) c: contingent (dependent projects)
- 5. Stages in Investment Process 1. Generating alternative investment proposals 2. Estimating the incremental cash flows associated with projects 3. Estimation of required rate of return (opportunity cost of capital) 4. Evaluating and selecting project
- 6. Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting The Ideal Evaluation Method: considers the time value of money, focuses on resultant cash flows, uses a firm’s cost of capital as the discount rate to evaluate a project. Consider all cash flows to determine profitability Should help ranking the projects according to their true profitability Should recognize the fact that bigger cash flows are preferable to smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable to later ones Should help in choosing among mutually exclusive projects
- 7. Converting Accounting Flow to Cash Flow Earnings before depreciation and taxes . . . . . . 20,000 Depreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -5,000 Earnings before taxes . . . . . . . . . . . 15,000 Taxes (50%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 7,500 Earnings after taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,500 Depreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . + 5,000 Cash flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,500
- 8. Methods of Evaluating Investment Proposals Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Profitability Index (PI) Accounting rate of return (ARR) Payback Period (PP)
- 9. Net Present Value Net Present Value (NPV): the present value of the cash inflows minus the present value of the cash outflows the future cash flows are discounted back over the life of the investment the basic discount rate is usually the firm’s cost of capital Accept/Reject Decision: if NPV > 0, accept the project if NPV < 0, reject the project
- 10. Internal Rate of Return Is the Rate of Return that equates the initial cash outflow (cost) with the future cash inflows (benefits) is the discount rate where the cash outflows equal the cash inflows (or NPV = 0), that is, IRR is simply the discount rate at which the NPV of the project equals zero. Accept/Reject Decision: if IRR > cost of capital, accept the project if IRR < cost of capital, reject the project
- 11. Profitability Index (PI) Profitability Index (PI): is computed by dividing the present value of inflows by the present value of outflows. Accept/Reject Decision: if PI > 1, accept the project if PI < 1, reject the project
- 12. Payback Period computes the amount of time required to recover the initial investment Advantages: Easy to understand and use Emphasizes the shorter time-horizon Disadvantages: ignores inflows after the cutoff period fails to consider the time value of money fails to consider any required rate of return
- 13. Project Data Net Cash Inflows (of a 10,000 investment) Year Investment A Investment B 1 3000 1,500 2 5,000 2,000 3 2,000 2,500 4 2000 5,000 5 3000 5,000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . cost of capital = 10%
- 14. Capital budgeting results Investment A Investment B Selection Payback period . . . . 3 years 3.8 years Quickest payback: Investment A Net present value . . . 1588 1,413 Highest net present value: Investment A Internal rate of return 16.54% 14.33% Highest yield: Investment A Profitability Index . . 1.16 1.141 Highest relative profitability: Investment A
- 15. NPV – most reliable measure Payback period is the least reliable measure of project acceptability. NPV, PI and IRR are more reliable measure. In case of conflict among NPV, PI and IRR, NPV should prevail. NPV has proven to be the only reliable measure of a project’s acceptability. Consider all cash flow True measure of profigtability Recognizes time values of money Consistent with SWM principle NPV is the only measure which always gives the correct decision when evaluating projects. Only NPV measures the amount by which a project would increase the value of the firm.
- 16. Summary and Conclusions A capital budgeting decision involves planning cash flows for a long-term investment Several methods are used to analyse investment proposals: payback, net present value, internal rate of return, and profitability index The net present value method, in particular, considers the amount and timing of cash flows The analysis is based upon estimates of incremental cash flows after tax that will result from the investment