IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC : Key Findings
- 1. Side Event to the 30th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC : Key Findings Thelma Krug IPCC Vice-Chair Inés Camilloni Author in Chapters 3 and 4 Quito, Ecuador, 8th November, 2018
- 2. Overview of the IPCC and of the Special Report of Global Warming of 1.5oC
- 3. 1988 IPCC – jointly established by WMO and UNEP 1990 FAR 1995 SAR 2001 TAR 2007 AR4 AR5 AR6 2013/2014 2016-2022 SR15 UNFCCC Global Stocktake 2018 2023 1970s-1980s Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC Adaptation 2 °C limit Paris Agreement 2019 MR SROCC SRCCL Nobel Peace Prize
- 4. The role of the IPCC is … “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human- induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” “IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
- 5. Science/Policy Interface Plenary Bureaux WorkingGroup(WG)I The Physical Science Basis WGIII Mitigation of Climate Change WGII Impacts, Adaptation& Vulnerability Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Authors Expert Reviewers Review Editors Intergovernmental Panel: 195 member States appointing National Focal Points IPCC – jointly established by WMO and UNEP, action endorsed by the UN General Assembly Hundreds of scientists and experts from around the world are involved in the preparation of IPCC reports
- 6. How the IPCC produces its reports?
- 7. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC
- 8. Introduction to the IPCC SR 1.5oC • Report responds to the invitation from the UNFCCC to the IPCC … “to provide a Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways” (Decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 21). • IPCC accepts the invitation on April 2016, and decides to prepare the Special Report on impacts and pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
- 9. Global Warming of 1.5°C An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
- 11. The report in numbers 91 Authors from 40 Countries 133 Contributing authors 6000 Studies 1 113 Reviewers 42 001 Comments
- 12. Outline of the Special Report Chapter 1 : Framing and scope Chapter 2 : Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5oC in the context of sustainable development Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5oC global warming on natural and human systems Chapter 4 : Strengthening and implementing the global response Chapter 5 : Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities
- 13. Relevance of the SR 1.5oC to the Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment
- 14. Short-lived Climate Forcers - SLCF • SLCF include shorter-lived GHGs: • Methane, some HFCs, particles (aerosols), their precursors and ozone precursors • SLCFs are strongly mitigated in 1.5°C pathways as is the case for 2°C pathways • Reducing non-CO2 emissions is part of most mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5oC • Temperature change from SLCFs disappears within decades after emissions of SLCFs are ceased • Long-term warming is mainly driven by CO2 emissions
- 15. Hidrofluorcarbons - HFCs • HFCs represent a small proportion of the global annual GHG emissions • annual global emissions : 0.35 Gt CO2-eq • Main anthropogenic sources : air conditioning, refrigeration, construction material • HFC mitigation options • alternatives with reduced warming effects • ideally combined with improved energy efficiency • Cost for most HFC mitigation potential • below USD2010 60 tCO2-eq
- 16. Fluorinated Gases in 1.5oC-consistent Pathways • F-gases reduced by 75 – 80% relative to 2010 levels in 2050 • Projected reductions by 2050 of F-gases are deeper than published estimates of what a full implementation of the Montreal Protocol’s Kigali Amendment would achieve. • Roughly ½ of F-gas emissions in 2050 compared to 2010 • Potential F-gas emissions reductions of more than 90% have been estimated • application of commercially available technologies (tested and implemented to a limited extent)
- 17. Understanding Global Warming of 1.5°C
- 18. Since pre-industrial times, human activities have caused 1C (±0.2C) of global warming
- 19. Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade due to past and ongoing emissions (high confidence). Already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods
- 20. At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 Past emissions alone do not commit the world to 1.5°C
- 22. Projected Climate Change, Potential Impacts and Associated Risks
- 23. Robust differences in regional climate characteristics including increases in mean temperature in most land and ocean regions and in hot extremes in most inhabited regions at 2C TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION Limiting global warming to 1.5°C reduces the risk of heavy precipitation in several regions and the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions Impacts of global warming at 1.5°C compared to 2°C
- 24. SEA LEVEL By 2100, global mean sea level rise would be around 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C. This would mean up to 10 million fewer people exposed the risk of rising seas FLOODS The fraction of the global land area affected by flood hazards is projected to be larger at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming Impacts of global warming at 1.5°C compared to 2°C
- 25. • Lower impact on biodiversity and species • Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat • Global population exposed to increased water shortages is up to 50% less Andre Seale / Aurora Photos Impacts of global warming at 1.5°C compared to 2°C
- 26. • Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them • Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050 Natalie Behring / Aurora Photos Impacts of global warming at 1.5°C compared to 2°C
- 27. 27 Confidence level for transition: L=Low, M=Medium, H=High and VH=Very high Five Reasons For Concern (RFCs) illustrate the impacts and risks of different levels of global warming
- 29. Assessed Emission Pathways • Integrated, quantitative evolutions of all emissions over 21st century • global energy • land use • world economy • 1.5oC-consistent pathways can be identified • economic growth • technological developments • lifestyles • Key impediments to achieving 1.5oC-consistent pathways • lack of global cooperation • lack of governance of transformations • growing resource intensive consumption
- 30. Assessed Pathways • Limiting warming to 1.5oC • Depends on GHG emissions over the next decades • Pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5oC • GHG emissions in 2030 • 25 – 30 Gt CO2-eq • Global emissions of current nationally stated mitigation ambitions (Paris Agreement) • 52 – 58 GtCO2eq yr−1 • Pathways with temporary overshoot before 1.5oC • Large scale deployment of CDR measures • uncertain • clear risks
- 31. Assessed Pathways • Limiting warming to 1.5oC • Net zero CO2 emissions globally around 2050 • Deep reductions in emissions of non-CO2 forcers • Mitigation pathways characterized by : • Energy demand reductions • Decarbonization of electricity and other fuels • Electrification of energy end use • Deep reductions in agricultural emissions • Some forms of CDR with carbon storage on land or sequestration in geological reservoirs • 1.5oC x 2oC • Similar transformations • More pronounced and rapid over the next decades
- 32. Key characteristics of 1.5oC-consistent Pathways • Rapid phase out of CO2 emissions • Deep emission reductions in other GHGs and climate forcers • Broad transformation in energy, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture, forestry and other land uses • Multiple options and choices are available • Emissions can be apportioned differently across sectors • E.g., reducing the overall amount of CO2 produced in the energy end use sectors and using limited contributions of CDR by AFOLU • E.g., being more lenient about the amount of CO2 that continues to be produced in the energy end use sectors and strongly relying on technological CDR options like BECCS
- 34. Strengthening the Global Response in the Context of Sustainable Development
- 35. Strengthening the Global Response • Requires transformative systemic change • Upscaling and acceleration of far-reaching, multi-level and cross sectoral climate mitigation • Greater scale and pace of change to transform energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure, and industrial system transitions globally • All countries would need to significantly raise their level of ambition • Developing countries and poor and vulnerable people • Financial, technological and other forms of support to build capacity
- 36. Energy System Transition • Meet energy service demand with lower energy use • Enhanced energy efficiency • Faster electrification of energy end use compared to 2oC • Higher share of low emission energy sources compared to 2oC pathways, particularly before 2050 • Renewables are projected to supply 70 – 85% of electricity in 2050
- 37. Energy System Transition In electricity generation • Shares of nuclear and fossil fuels with CCS are modelled to increase in most 1.5oC pathways • CCS would allow the electricity generation share of gas to be approximately 8% of global electricity in 2050 • Use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0% of electricity
- 38. CO2 Emissions in Industry • Projected to be about 75 – 90% lower in 2050 relative to 2010 • 50 – 80% for global warming of 2oC • Reductions with new and existing technologies/practices • electrification, hydrogen, sustainable bio-based feedstocks, product substitution, and carbon capture, utilization and storage. • Options technically proven at various scales • large-scale deployment may be limited by economic, financial, human capacity and institutional constraints
- 39. Urban and Infrastructure System Transition • Changes in land and urban planning practices • Deeper emissions reductions in transport and buildings compared to pathways that limit global warming below 2oC • 1.5oC : electricity share of energy demand in buildings would be about 55 – 75% in 2050
- 40. Urban and Infrastructure System Transition Transport Sector • Share of low-emission final energy would rise from less than 5% in 2020 to about 35-64% in 2050 Economic, institutional and socio-cultural barriers, depending on national, regional and local circunstances, capabilities and the availability of capital.
- 41. Climate Change and People • Close links to United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) • Mix of measures to adapt to climate change and options to reduce emissions can have benefits for SDGs • National and sub-national authorities, civil society, the private sector, indigenous peoples and local communities can support ambitious action • International cooperation is a critical part of limiting warming to 1.5°C
- 42. IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle
- 43. Sixth Cycle of the IPCC – AR6
- 44. Sixth Cycle of the IPCC – AR6
- 45. The Physical Science Basis The IPCC Synthesis Report Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of Climate Change April 2021 April 2022October 2021 July 2021 Global Stocktake 2023 UNFCCC Global warming of 1.5o C October 2018 September 2019 August 2019 Facilitative dialogue UNFCCC Land Use Oceans and cryosphere Timeline for the forthcoming AR6 reports
- 46. Special Report on Climate Change and Land Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Chapter 1: Framing and Context Chapter 2: Land–Climate interactions Chapter 3: Desertification Chapter 4: Land Degradation Chapter 5: Food Security Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development
- 47. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Chapter 1: Framing and Context of the Report Chapter 2: High Mountain Areas Chapter 3: Polar Regions Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks
- 48. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories Overview Chapter Volume 1: General Guidance and Reporting Volume 2: Energy Volume 3: Industrial Processes and Product Use Volume 4: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Volume 5: Waste
- 49. Working Group I : the Physical Basis of CC Chapter 1: Framing, context, methods Chapter 2 : Changing state of the climate system Chapter 3 : Human influence on the climate system Chapter 4 : Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information Chapter 5 : Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks Chapter 6 : Short-lived climate forcers Chapter 7 : The Earth’s energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity Chapter 8 : Water cycle changes Chapter 9 : Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change Chapter 10 : Linking global to regional climate change Chapter 11 : Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate Chapter 12 : Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment
- 50. Working Group II : Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability SECTION 2: Regions Chapter 9 : Africa Chapter 10 : Asia Chapter 11 : Australasia Chapter 12 : Central and South America Chapter 13 : Europe Chapter 14 : North America Chapter 15 : Small Islands SECTION 3: Sustainable development pathways: integrating adaptation and mitigation Chapter 16 : Key risks across sectors and regions Chapter 17 : Decision-making options for managing risk Chapter 18 : Climate resilient development pathways
- 51. Working Group II : Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability Chapter 1 : Point of departure and key concepts SECTION 1: Risks, adaptation and sustainability for systems impacted by climate change Chapter 2 : Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services Chapter 3 : Ocean and coastal ecosystems and their services Chapter 4 : Water Chapter 5 : Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products Chapter 6 : Cities, settlements and key infrastructure Chapter 7 : Health, wellbeing and the changing structure of communities Chapter 8 : Poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development
- 52. Working Group III : Mitigation of CC Chapter 1 : Introduction and Framing Chapter 2 : Emissions trends and drivers Chapter 3 : Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals Chapter 4 : Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid- term Chapter 5 : Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation Chapter 6 : Energy systems Chapter 7 : Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Chapter 8 : Urban systems and other settlements
- 53. Working Group III : Mitigation of CC Chapter 9 : Buildings Chapter 10 : Transport Chapter 11 : Industry Chapter 12 : Cross sectoral perspectives Chapter 13 : National and sub-national policies and institutions Chapter 14 : International cooperation Chapter 15 : Investment and finance Chapter 16 : Innovation, technology development and transfer Chapter 17 : Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable development
- 54. Thank you! The Special Report can be accessed at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/s r15/ Questions? [email protected]
Editor's Notes
- #18: The preindustrial period considered in this report as the reference and it is defined as the 51-years period between 1850 and 1900
- #19: We know that since preindustrial times, human activities have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C.
- #20: Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade due to past and ongoing emissions We are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing arctic sea ice, among other changes.
- #21: If the world continues to warm at its current rate, global temperature is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 Although past emissions from pre-industrial times to the present will continue to cause changes in the climate system, these emissions alone are unlikely to cause global warming of 1.5°C.
- #22: Warming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons, including two to three times higher in the Arctic. Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean.
- #23: Models project robust differences in climate between present-day and global warming of 1.5°c, and between 1.5°c and 2°C. every bit of extra warming makes a difference
- #24: TEMPERATURE : Robust differences in regional climate characteristics including increases in mean temperature in most land and ocean regions and in hot extremes in most inhabited regions at 2C PRECIPITATION: Limiting global warming to 1.5°C reduces the risk of heavy precipitation in several regions and the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions
- #25: FLOODS The fraction of the global land area affected by flood hazards is projected to be larger at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming SEA LEVEL By 2100, global mean sea level rise would be around 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C. This would mean up to 10 million fewer people exposed the risk of rising seas
- #26: Loss of biodiversity and species extinction are projected to be lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C. Limiting warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would mean smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops, particularly in sub Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America The increase in the proportion of the world population exposed to climate-change induced water shortages would be up to 50% less with global warming of 1.5C compared to 2C.
- #27: The impacts of climate change in the ocean are increasing risks to fisheries and livelihoods that depend on them. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could reduce the number of people exposed to climate-related risks and susceptible to poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050.
- #28: Five Reasons For Concern (RFCs) illustrate the impacts and risks of different levels of global warming RFCs illustrate the implications of global warming for people, economies, and ecosystems. The levels of impact and/or risk are defined as undetectable, moderate, high or very high In all cases the risk transitions by degrees of global warming increase between 1.5C and 2 and in particular the transition is from high to very high for RFC1 (Unique and threatened systems). Examples of RFC1 include coral reefs, the Arctic and its indigenous people, mountain glaciers, and biodiversity hotspots.
- #46: .