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K.dubey
- 1. Course seminar Khushboo Dubey Idno.- A-9015/15 Ph.D Plant Pathology
- 2. Introduction Signification Modules Mechanism with example Conclusion
- 3. Forecasting ofplant diseases means predicting for the occurrence of plant disease in a specified area ahead of time, so that suitable control measures can be undertaken in advance to avoid losses. Disease forecasts are predictions of probable outbreaks or increase in intensity of disease. It involves well organized team work and expenditure of time, energy and money. It is used as an aid to the timely application of chemicals.
- 14. Fore castsbased on amount of initial inoculum Heald (1921) Number of spores on infected grains of wheat Wilhelm (1950) spores of V. alboatrum in soil No. of sclerotia an nematodes cysts in soil Fore casts based on weather conditions between the cropping seasons Stewart wilt of corn (E. stewartii) survive in flea beetle vector, so conditions during Dec to Feb (temp less than -1oC) affect survival Downy mildew of tobacco
- 16. Models typicallyare developed in specific climates for specific diseases Early blight model for Midwest tomatoes Models may contain assumptions about site specific conditions that might not apply for all areas Early blight in Midwest, but what about the west coast, the desert? Variables such as timing of model initiation, host phenology, and host range may effect predictions Host plant resistance, variety & fungicide selection
- 18. Name of theprogramme Disease Pathogen EPIDEM Early blight of potato Alternaria solani EPIMAY Southern leaf blight of maize Helminthosporium maydis EPICORN Southern corn blight Helminthosporium maydis CERCOS Blight of cerely Cercospora spp. MYCOS Blight of chrysanthemum Mycosphaerella spp. TOM-CAST(Pitbaldo,1992) Early blight of tomato Alternaria solani PLASMO(Rosa et al.,.,1993) Downy mildew of grapes Plasmopara viticola EPIVET Viral disease of potato Contact with aphid transmitted viruses EPIPIRE Cereal rusts and aphids Puccinia graminis tritici
- 19. BLIGHT CAST(Karuse etal.1975) Late blight of potato Phytophthora infestans SIMCAST(Grunwald,2002) Late blight of potato Phytophthora infestans NEGFRY(Runno and Kopple,2002) Late blight of potato Phytophthora infestans EPIVEN Apple scab Venturia inequalis EPIDEMIC Strip rust Puccinia striiformis BLIGHT CAST(Karuse et al.1975) Late blight of potato Phytophthora infestans
- 20. Purpose ofDisease Model Specific disease, crop, climate, & region Model Development Assumptions & monitoring variables Model Validation Testing the assumptions Model Implementation Going public or private
- 24. In thesediseases, the rate of increase is mathematically analogous to the simple interest in money. There is only one generation of the pathogen in the life of the infected crop. The primary inoculum is seed or soil borne and secondary infection is rare. Formula Y= EK
- 27. In thesediseases, the rate of increase is mathematically analogous to compound interest in money. The pathogen produces spores at a very rapid rate which are disseminated by external agencies like air, there by infecting other plants R=2-3/t2-t1(log10 x2/1-x2-log x1/1-x1) Where,x1=initial inoculum at time T1 X2=inocume present at time T2 R=infection rate
- 39. In future,disease forecasting systems may become more useful as computing power increases and the amount of data that is available to plant pathologists to construct models. Good forecasting systems also may become increasingly important with climate change. Over all, disease forecasting modules facilitated the development of strategic to cam bat at the appropriate stage time, amount at economic cost.