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L. Hunter Lovins at the Iowa Environmental Council's annual conference
- 1. Natural Capitalism Solutions F I N D I N G I O WA‘ S WAY A Presentation by L. Hunter Lovins © NCS 2012
- 2. Global Drivers ofChange • Loss of ecosystem services • Carbon constrained world • Economic instability • Volatile energy prices • Vulnerabilities • Chindia • The sustainability imperative • Water • Food
- 3. Global Biodiversity OutlookThree - GBO-3
- 4. New Rule If weinsist on ruining the planet, we have to stop claiming we’re a “superior species”.
- 5. Nov 2011 studyfrom IEA April 2012 study from OECD “Unless world leaders take immediate and coordinated action, modern industry will lock the world into a calamitous temperature rise of up to six degrees C. In such a world, demand for energy, food, and water will overwhelm the planet”
- 6. Last year, anew record: 14 weather related disasters with damages over $1 billion.
- 7. Hot enough foryou? Iowa is experiencing first hand why America’s decade of ignoring climate science is a mistake. Unless Iowa acts to capture the green economy, it faces a grim prospect, both from the weather and from an economy strangled by its fossil fuel past.
- 8. Iowa Ground Central 60%of the state is in extreme drought. 80% of soil is moisture-deficient. Bushel of corn has risen from $5.50 to $8.
- 9. Climate Change Impacts U.S.corn production is down 13%. USDA predicts 3-10 % increase in all food prices. Will cost $600 more for the same food purchased this year, for a family of four.
- 11. Commodity price increases CreditSuisse estimates that commodity prices will increase 5% - 20% in the second half of 2012 Every 1¢ rise in the price of gasoline = $1billion lost in household purchasing power What will this do to your business?
- 12. Food and WaterScarcity 1/3 of the world's cropland is losing its productivity because it is losing its topsoil More than 33 countries face social unrest due to record high food prices.
- 13. A single frackingwell uses up to 5 million gallons of water
- 14. Iowa Ground Central Severeprecipitation events have increased 32% since 1960’s. A 20% increase in precipitation increases soil erosion by 40%, if not properly managed.
- 15. Iowa Ground Central 2008flood, the City of Cedar Rapids had to pump raw sewage into Cedar River. Cedar Rapids was not the only city forced to close wastewater operations.
- 16. Agriculture = WaterIntensive Agriculture uses 70% of world water withdrawals Competition for water resources is increasing
- 17. Agriculture = Polluting • Accordingto the EPA, agricultural practices are responsible for 70% of all pollution in U.S. rivers and streams. • In the US, 40% of rivers, lakes, and coastal waters are so contaminated that they are unfit for humans to fish in, swim in, or drink.
- 18. Agriculture = EnergyIntensive In 1940 we produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil fuel energy we used. Now it takes 10 calories of fossil-fuel energy to produce a single calorie of modern supermarket food
- 19. 2012 had over2,000 record- shattering heat events Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature
- 20. Feb 2012 theUN released Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing The 22-member panel said a new blueprint for growth and low-carbon prosperity must be "mainstreamed" into economic policy as quickly as possible By 2030 the planet will need at least 50% more food, 45% more energy and 30% more water.
- 21.
- 22. It’s NOT aboutpolar bears
- 24. The science isuncertain
- 25. The science doesnot matter Let’s assume that the climate sceptics are right Don’t go to the casino on those odds If all that you care about is maximizing profit, you will do exactly what you would do if you were scared to death about climate
- 27. McKinsey Curve $30 –40 million available below the line savings per company
- 28. The Carbon DisclosureProject Institutional investors - $78 trillion assets Pushing FTSE top 500 companies to disclose “investment-related” GHG emissions 6% of leading companies deselect suppliers who fail to manage carbon, 56% commit to do so in the future
- 29. 6,300 computers andmonitors in sleep or standby mode when not in use (24/7). Leave machines on one evening a week for updates and turn them off at the end of the work day: $700,000. US companies waste $2.8 billion a year on 108 million unused PCs. In 2009, these unused PCs will emit 20 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions – the impact of 4 million cars. PC power costs are the largest single factor of IT energy costs and can account for a quarter of the costs in a modern office building.
- 30. “Ford Saves OneMillion Dollars... By Shutting Off Computers” Fast Company, 23 March 2010 Turning off one computer every night for a year saves $34 If 20 computers are left on in the evening and over the weekend, the savings grow to $526 a year
- 31. 7M square feetDC with 500 Watt roof lights evenly spaced every 10 feet. Half the floor space was racks with boxes. Most of this lighting was either unnecessary or redundant. Work areas had task lighting at the employee level. Annual savings for shutting off the lights... $650,000.
- 32. Economic Realities: Saving energystrengthens the entire economy
- 33. Green buildings improvelabor productivity and worker health Improving indoor air quality could save U.S. businesses: • $58 billion in avoided sick time each year, • Another $200 billion earned in increased worker performance.
- 34. Comparative Costs in LargeOffice Buildings Data from Building Owners and Managers Association: Electric Power research Institute, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1991
- 35. Carbon War Room Partnershipbetween Lockheed Martin, Energi, Barclays, and Ygrene to retrofit commercial real estate. Will return $4 million in tax revenues for every $1 million $10 million in economic activity generated and 60 jobs created. The $650 million program will bring its first two cities: Sacramento and Miami 40,000 jobs created, $1 billion in tax benefits, and at least $10 billion in increased economic output Will scale across US, as well as China.
- 36. Renewable Generation Environment Iowahas shown how the state, now 85% dependent on coal energy imported from out of town could provide 100% of its needs from renewable Iowa power, keeping jobs and money here.
- 37. Solar deployment –policy matters California receives 70% more sunlight for producing solar energy than Germany. But Germany installs 28 times more solar electric capacity every year Will be 100% renewable by 2050
- 38. The Economics ofFeed-in Tariffs Deutsche Bank Study: FiTs gave Germany the lead in renewable energy production. In first 4 years FiTs created 300,000 new jobs FITs cut the unit cost of solar panels 30 percent in 2009 enough that they could pay for themselves within five to seven years, and reach grid parity (costing the same as grid electricity) by 2013.
- 39. FiTs drove Germaneconomic regeneration, enabling Germany to pay its own citizens to produce, install and maintain their own renewable energy systems, instead of buying imported fossil fuels. The program cost of €2 - 3 per month ($50 to customers’ electricity bills each year) to electricity bills in Germany (a total of €8.6 billion.) Deutsche Bank: The savings created by FiTs exceeded total cost of payments made by households. Had customers bought electricity from conventional generation and paid the costs of fossil fuel generation Germans would have paid over €9.4 billion.
- 40. Iowa Leading theWay Iowa is a National Leader in Renewable Energy • 20% of energy from sun, wind, and biofuels • 200 wind companies with 7,000 full-time jobs The Green Economy Unleashed • By 2020: • Create 20,000 new jobs • Save consumers $1 billion annually
- 41. Renewable Benefits + Jobs + +$ Iowa’s renewable resources could provide 17 times more energy than the state needs It would help the average Iowa family save $400 It would create at least 3,000 new jobs each year!
- 42. Jobs Growth Since 2006jobs in renewables and environment have grown 56.8% vs Internet: 29.8% California's “green economy" grew 3X as fast as traditional economy between 2008 and 2009 – 174,000 employed in green economy – 26% are manufacturing jobs vs 9% in total economy. In US green jobs grew 9.1% 1998 – 2007, 2 ½ X faster than all job growth.
- 43. Early stage companiesare the economic future of the US. Kauffman research shows that startups are responsible for: • Almost all net job growth in the U.S. economy for all but 7 years – from 1977 to now • The top 1% of highest growth startups generate almost 10% of all new jobs
- 44. Sonoma County Energy Independence Program 8.4% increase in construction-related jobs in Sonoma County between January, 2009 and September, 2009 3.0% job decline in Napa County July-August 2009: $5.6 million in SCEIP projects 500 new construction jobs reported
- 45. Dardesheim, Germany -100% renewable Wildpoldsried produces 321% more energy than it uses; makes $5.7 million each year
- 46. 1 MW/ week= 15.6 GW In 2010 – 21 GW 2011 SCE: 250 MW plant on roofs around So California $875 million to complete (comparable coal plant ~$800 million)
- 47. Walmart Committed to be100% renewably powered
- 48.
- 49. Wind is the2nd fastest growing energy supply technology in the world: 37 GW in 2009, 32 GW 2010 Now 237 GW, 40 GW new 2011 Costs less than coal in good sites And check out China
- 50. China has replaced • If China’s economy the United States as grows at its prior rate the world's leading • If it uses resources as consumer of most inefficiently as the U.S. basic commodities, • By 2030 China will need like oil, grain, coal, 99 million barrels of oil a and steel. day. The world currently produces 80+ million barrels per day and may never produce more.
- 51. China Renewable Investments • China’s State Administration of Energy (SAE), is creating a new energy blueprint • Total investments for renewable energy by 2020 – $911 billion for efficiency and renewables – 10.6b million new jobs – Generate several trillion dollars in new GDP
- 52. Rise of Solarin China China accounted for China’s efforts to half of the worlds dominate renewable production in solar energy technologies raise the prospect that energy. the West may someday trade its dependence Producing panels as on oil from the Mideast low as $1.04 a watt. for a reliance on solar panels, wind turbines and other gear manufactured in China.
- 53. China - 1MW grid interconnected
- 54. Rizhao, China City of 3 million – 99% use solar hot water 5,000 manufacturers of simple solar water heaters Now looking at export
- 55. Baoding, China Mayor Yu Quin: “Polluting first and cleaning up later is very expensive. So we chose renewable energy to replace traditional industry.” 200 renewable energy companies replace cars and textiles
- 56. R. James Woolsey’ssolar powered plug-in-hybrid has a bumper sticker reading: “Osama bin Ladin hates my car.”
- 57. Fragile supply lines– for every 24 convoys a marine comes home in a body bag Military uses 10.6 million gallons/day Largest fuel user in the world
- 58. Military driving renewabledeployment
- 59. Great Green Fleet NavySecretary Ray Mabus: "We simply have to figure out a way to get American-made, home-grown fuel that is stably priced, that is competitive with oil," Deploy a biofuel-burning carrier MH-60 chopper flying group by 2016 and require the on 50-50 algae/ grease Department of the Navy to get half biofuel and petroleum of its energy from alternative fuel sources by 2020.
- 60. USS Ford frigateused 25,000 gallons to sail 12,000 miles from Everett Wash to San Diego – no difference in performance Solyazyme and Dynamic Fuels
- 61. F-18 Green Hornetflying on Sustainable Fuels’ oil seed fuel/ jet fuel mix – 60 – 75 million barrels of jet fuel/ year
- 63. European/Middle East Smartgrid Power equal to the total present usage of the EUMENA region power could be generated covering less than 0.3% of the Sahara Desert with CSP plants. DESERTEC Foundation proposes a supergrid from Iceland to Arabian peninsula, from Baltic to west coast of Africa, in which offshore wind and wave farms, photovoltaic sites, tidal stream generators, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric stations would unite with desert CSP arrays to meet the region's actual daily and hourly demands over an HVDC network
- 64.
- 65. “By the way,in 2011, GE's wind turbines achieved RE less than C for the first time. It really happened. Now we're designing super efficient and flexible combined cycle gas turbines that will compliment renewable intermittency, while we work on energy storage technologies. Solar is next...”
- 66.
- 67. Ray Anderson What is the business case for ending life on earth?
- 68. Interface "Mission Zero"Metrics -NetGHG emissions down 82% in absolute tonage- Fossil fuel usage is down 60%- Water usage is down 75%- Renewables and recycled materials up 25%- Renewable energy is up 27%- Diverted 74,000 tons of used carpet from landfills- Goal: 0 impact, 0 footprint - ½ way to goal today. Anticipate will make goal in 2020. Best thing for business: Costs down $4.5M Sales increased by 2/3 Profits up 2X- Paid for all costs for transformation of Interface.
- 70. Harvard Business Review “Sustainabilityisn’t the burden on bottom lines that many executives believe it to be. It can lower your costs and increase your revenues. That’s why sustainability should be a touchstone for all innovation. In the future, only companies that make sustainability a goal will achieve competitive advantage. That means rethinking business models as well as products, technologies and processes.” Why Sustainability is Now the Key Driver of Innovation
- 71. Sustainability pays Companies inthe Dow Jones sustainability Index outperform the general market Goldman Sachs report July 2007: Companies that are leaders in environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies outperform competitors in stock performance—by an average of 25%. 72% of the companies on the DJSI outperformed industry peers
- 72. Refusal to reportquarterly The ultimate cost of short-termism was the financial crisis of 2008-9. 'Too many investors have become short-term gamblers: the more fluctuations in share price they can engineer, the better it is for them. It is not good for the companies or for society, but it is influencing the way firms are being run, all the same.... To drag the world back to sanity, we need to know why we are here. The answer is: for consumers, not shareholders. If we are in synch with consumer needs and the environment in which we operate, and take responsibility for society as well as for our employees, then the shareholder will Paul Polman also be rewarded'
- 73. Unilever’s Sustainable Living Plan: Cut environmental impacts in half by 2020, Source 100% of agricultural materials sustainably, and Help more than 1billion people improve their health and well- being.
- 74. Sustainable Agriculture • Build healthy topsoil • Minimize use of fossil fuels • Plant crops suitable to local climate • Use a whole systems approach to farm management
- 75. Top Menu Trendsof 2012 Survey by The National Restaurant Association #1 Locally sourced meats and seafood #2 Locally grown produce #4 Hyper-local sourcing #5 Sustainability #8 Locally produced wine and beer #12 Farm/estate-branded ingredients
- 76. Carbon Innovators Lead Companiesthat lead in climate-related innovation give higher financial performance (five-year return on equity) Three indexes identified the most resilient, most innovative and best positioned companies to gain competitive advantage in the new low-carbon economy Ranking the top 350 US companies, with a combined market cap of $350 trillion, on their climate innovation and carbon management programmes, shows a positive correlation between the financial performance of companies and their ability to successfully implement disruptive market innovations related to climate change.
- 77. In nature carbonis not the world’s greatest poison
- 78. Calera Calera is piloting making cement in the same way that coral reefs make limestone: CO2 and seawater. Carbon negative process. Vinod Khosla is a lead investor
- 79. Americans buy morethan 9 billion bottles of water a year
- 80. Method is makingits bottles out of recycled plastic – 25% of it harvested from the oceans
- 81. Synthetic biology couldcreate buildings that inhale carbon dioxide, and control temperature without air conditioning – Dr Rachel Armstrong, senior TED Fellow, Director of Avatar
- 82. I am aprofessor of a discipline that did not exist when I went to college
- 83. Change is hard MargaretMead said the only person who likes change is a wet baby
- 84. The best wayto predict the future is to invent it
- 85. His goal: To makethe world work for 100% of humanity, in the shortest possible time, through spontaneous cooperation without ecological offense or disadvantage of anyone.”
- 86. The second mousegets the cheese
- 87. The rule ofno realm is mine but all worthy things that are in peril as the world now stands, those are my care. And for my part I shall not wholly fail if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair and bear fruit and flower again in the days to come. For I too am a steward, did you not know?
- 88. In the end,it was two rather ordinary, playful, unassuming hobbits who undertook to save the world. Despite their fears, they took the future of the world on their shoulders, and all the wizards and kings and warriors could only play a supportive role.
- 89. Real leadership isextraordinary courage by ordinary people
- 90. Natural Capitalism Solutions L O N G M O N T, COLORADO www.natcapsolutions.org
- 91. 500,000 refugees 18 millionat risk of starvation 91
- 92. Shai Agassi Better Place– renewable electric cars
- 93. DONG energy andBetter Place $12,000 for a family-sized all- electric sedan: Renault Fluence EV. Drive as much as you want. Pay $300/ month (less if you drive fewer miles). Emit no CO2 or other pollutants. And help the world break its addiction to oil Better Place has ordered 100,000 cars from Renault. Agassi plans to order another 100,000 cars in the first half of 2012. Agassi has agreements with governments to roll out Better Place in northern California, in the urban regions of Australia and in Hawaii. France, too, has made a major commitment to electric vehicles, one reason why Renault says it will launch four electric car models in the next several years.
- 94. Creating the Madrone Project Digital sustainabilityeducation, curated for digital media and the modern attention span A rigorous, modular curriculum designed by your passion
- 95. Math is thelow hanging fruit of online education Advanced Linear chains of Food Chain of Topics knowledge Constant over time Basic
- 97. Hundreds of Topicsfor ‘Micro-Lesson’ Nodes – 12-15 min advanced / research / just plain core principles / foundations interesting case studies
- 98. Online Sustainability Educationis a Different Beast (interdisciplinary, dynamic, ecology of knowledge) Sustainable Ci8es Advanced Sustainable Well Being Human microbiome and virome Buildiing Design and Human Health Carbon Nega8ve Blgs and Houses Made of Food Web of Topics Meat RooBop Farming RooBop Biodiversity Systems Theory Principles Scaling Theory of Sustainable Ci8es Climate Capitalism Principles Natural Capitalism Principles Efficiency Principles Redesigning Manufacturing Principles Complexity Theory Principles Network Theory Principles Art and Innova8on Emergence in Complex Systems Economic Complexity and Sustainable Growth Biomimicry Principles Math Lessons for Locavores What is Sustainability Sustainable Building Design Principles Global Homogeniza8on Jevons Efficiency Paradox Art and Urban Renewal the Crea8ve Class New Metrics for Sustainable Economies Basic Mul8Family Housing Crea8ve Green Mobility Crowd Sharing
- 99. Oceans 2 degrees from coral reefs Other Tracks Calera – cement from CO2 Coral reefs Climate Change bleaching Network Structure of Classes Stimulates Large Node = Many Links Cross-disciplinary Thinking
- 100. Join the conversationonline: facebook.com/madroneproject Twitter.com/madroneproject What do you want to know? What do you want to study?
- 101. Sustainable Agriculture In 1940we produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil fuel energy we used. Now it takes 10 calories of fossil-fuel energy to produce a single calorie of modern supermarket food
- 102. UnSustainable Agriculture The production, manufacture,and transport of synthetic fertilizers is the largest agricultural energy use Representing on average 38%, but up to as high as 50% of energy use
- 103. Sustainable Agriculture The overallresource efficiency of our farming operations has decreased even while we have produced more food. What would a sustainable agriculture system look like?
- 104. Sustainable Agriculture • Build healthy topsoil • Minimize use of fossil fuels • Plant crops suitable to local climate • Use a whole systems approach to farm management
- 105. Economic Recovery "Agriculture isthe foundation on which recovery from the global recession and financial and food price crisis will be built, especially for developing countries, which derive much of their income from agricultural production,” – Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture
- 106. In Pursuit ofWealth "Agriculture ... is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth … and happiness.” -Thomas Jefferson to George Washington
- 107. “To plant agarden is to believe in Tomorrow”