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LDT Future of Learning 2010
- 1. The Future of Learning (Yours) Eric Grant, LDT 05 Futurist, Edupreneur email: [email_address] twitter: senatorgrant
- 2. Overview Lecture: A Bit of Context for Today
- 3. Discussion: Education in the Flat World
- 4. Lecture: Tools Used by the Pros
- 6. Lecture: Products of the Pros
- 8. Suggested Reading The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman Optional: Education in the Flat World Shift Happens 2.0
- 9. Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky
- 10. Wikinomics by Dan Tapscott
- 11. Disrupting Class by Clayton Christensen
- 12. A Whole New Mind by Daniel Pink
- 13. Generations by Strauss and Howe
- 14. Context for Today or: Explicit Learning Goals Most likely, the Future is not that different from now Demographics change, capacities increase, but humans still learn, work, play, love, and die The Future is impossible to predict , and if you try, you will be wrong, and probably be ridiculed But the future can be forecasted through a variety of fuzzy arts and rigorous methods An unchanged Future is boring and useless But talking about the extreme possibilities is much more interesting and generates better strategies
- 15. Futurists, aka Futurismologists Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them.
- 16. Futures Studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel.
- 17. The discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
- 18. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can often be depicted in terms of pendulum shifts The future sometimes looks like a long tail Source: Longtail.com Source: Wikipedia
- 19. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The S-Curve is popular for forecasting adoption of new technologies and products But the Hype Cycle is usually more accurate Source: Gartner via Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia
- 20. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can be depicted as a “cone of uncertainty” It becomes more uncertain the further out you try to look Trends that seem obvious now become wilder and more unpredictable
- 21. Tools of the Pros: Trend Analysis collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information
- 22. often coupled with data visualizations, such as maps
- 23. Tools of the Pros: the Delphi Method systematic, interactive method which relies on a panel of independent experts
- 24. experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds
- 25. after each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments
- 26. participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group
- 27. it is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer
- 28. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning and our learning activity for today (orginally) simulation games created by analysts for policy or military uses
- 29. (now) plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day, combined with narratives about where those situations may lead
- 30. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 1: Choose a Focal Issue (and Timeframe) example: How can we design learning environments for 2020 to ensure that all students succeed?
- 31. example: How can we support continuing / lifelong learning in 2020?
- 32. example: How can we ensure equity and access for all students in 2020?
- 33. example: How can organizations maximize the potential of workers in 2020?
- 34. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 2: Choose Your Critical Uncertainties Make some basic assumptions ex: the Earth will still support life in 2020
- 35. ex: bandwidth, storage, and data will continue to increase over the next 10 years Create a list of critical uncertainties that have identifiable possibile outcomes, and choose 2 that will work well together ex: What will learning outcomes be? Fluid? Static?
- 36. ex. What will the purpose of education be? Citizens? Workers?
- 37. ex: How will teachers be trained in 10 years?
- 38. ex: Will the world become flatter or isolated?
- 39. ex: Where will learning happen? Tip: Do not assign value judgements to critical uncertainties
- 40. Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2) Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid
- 41. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid Scenario B: Supply and Demand for Democracy Scenario A: America Competes Scenario C: Hot, Flat, and Crowded Scenario D: Teacher-At-Large
- 42. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Other Steps Step 4: Create scenarios (stories) explaining how each quadrant might happen
- 43. Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family, project, etc) could act most effectively in each situation
- 44. Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of these scenarios might be playing out
- 45. Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years
- 46. Learning Activity As a large group, brainstorm 4 - 5 focal issues (5 minutes)
- 47. Self-select into small groups to address one of the focal issues (20 minutes) Identify several critical uncertainties; narrow down to 2
- 48. Map to 2x2 and identify characteristics of each quadrant Regroup to report out
- 49. Products of the Pros: The Map of Future Forces Trend Analysis and Visualization
- 50. First Version 2006 to 2016 (2006)
- 51. Second Version 2020 (March 2009)
- 52. Created by KnowledgeWorks Foundation and Institute for the Future
- 54. Products of the Pros: Map of Future Forces 2020 Six Drivers of Change Altered Bodies
- 58. A New Civic Discourse
- 60. Products of the Pros: Horizon Report Trend Analaysis and Delphi Method, produced via Wiki
- 61. Annual; latest version January 2010
- 62. Produced by New Media Consortium and Educause Learning Intiative
- 64. Products of the Pros: The 2009 Horizon Report Increasing globalization continues to affect the way we work, collaborate, and communicate
- 65. The notion of collective intelligence is redefining how we think about ambiguity and imprecision
- 66. Experience with and affinity for games as learning tools is an increasingly universal characteristic among those entering higher education and the workforce
- 67. Visualization tools are making information more meaningful and insights more intuitive
- 68. As more than one billion phones are produced each year, mobile phones are benefiting from unprecedented innovation, driven by global competition
- 69. What's Next? Do your scenarios fit with the forecasts of the pros?
- 70. How can all of this help us?