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Libraries in the teeth of change
The document discusses potential future trends in education, technology, and their intersection. It covers 4 parts: 1) changing education contexts, 2) emerging technology trends, 3) how teaching and learning may adapt to new technologies, and 4) possible futures if certain trajectories continue. Some key trends discussed include rising costs and alternatives to traditional higher education, growing roles of health care and AI/tutoring software, and gaming's increasing cultural influence. The document aims to identify significant trends to help navigate future changes while avoiding unpredictable events.
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Libraries in the teeth of change
- 1. LibrariesLibraries in thein the TeethofTeeth of ChangeChange NYLA - October 2015
- 2. Four parts 1. Education contexts 2.Technolog y 3. Education meets technolog y
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- 5. ETH Zurich: “newways to write [to] and read DNA” http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/physics/reed-solomon-codes/
- 6. How to getat the future whileHow to get at the future while avoiding Black Swans?avoiding Black Swans?
- 7. Monthly environmental scan report Trends identified, tested, projected Part 1: present future trendsPart 1: present future trends
- 9. Education contexts: trendsEducationcontexts: trends Education systems Reform movements (K-12, higher ed) continue Rising student debt ($1.3 trillion) Alternative certification pilots (competency, badges)
- 10. Global higher educationGlobalhigher education More international students heading to the US International higher ed systems building up US campuses expanding overseas presence
- 11. Contextual trendsContextual trends Demographics: Youth population shrinkage, esp. NE + midwest Ballooning senior population…
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- 14. Education contextsEducation contexts Economics:US labor changes › manufacturing->service › 1 job/career->many gigs › declining participation › Automation rising
- 15. Top and bottomvs middleTop and bottom vs middle
- 17. Enrollment changesEnrollment changes Spending less Swirling
- 18. Student populationStudent population changeschanges Majority adult Increasing first- generation students Veterans Learning disabilities 18https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/6708914025/
- 20. Enrollment decline?Enrollment decline? Spending less per family
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- 22. Bad forecastingBad forecasting Inter-institutional collaboration (except SUNY) Senior admin compensation Intergenerational strife
- 23. Athletics are doingjust fineAthletics are doing just fine
- 25. Technology trendsTechnology trends Rise of the stacks Post- Snowden Hardware + networks: multiple ecosystems Digitizatio
- 26. Technology trendsTechnology trends digital video cloud migration continues automation and artificial intelligence AR approach
- 27. New device ecosystemNewdevice ecosystem Android battles iOS Wearable computing Very small cameras and computers Internet of Things
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- 29. Design for mobile*first *
- 30. PCs getting crowdedout Mouse and keyboard declining 3d printing mainstreaming 3d tv dying
- 31. Technology trendsTechnology trends socialmedia triumphing
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- 33. Away from physicalmediaAway from physical media
- 34. Technology trendsTechnology trends crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue open struggle ongoing durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office
- 35. Did ebooks plateau?Didebooks plateau? Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
- 36. Reading and/versus digitalReadingand/versus digital How much reading is being done? How is digital reading different? Literacies changing?
- 37. Weaker tech trendlinesWeakertech trendlines the limits of the Web onshoring hardware production
- 38. 3. Teaching andlearning and tech3. Teaching and learning and tech
- 39. Teaching and learningand techTeaching and learning and tech blended/flipped classroom rise of the net.generation distance learning grows gaming in education
- 40. Teaching and learningand techTeaching and learning and tech educational entrepreneurship big data and data analytics develop campus digital security threats growing
- 41. Uses ofsocial media Uses of Web video Changes in the LMS world Blended learning Learning analytics Changes in library role Digital humanities (in classroom) The rise of the Maker movement
- 43. Credit forMOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses entering
- 44. Changes in scholarshipChangesin scholarship
- 45. Open content Possible divide growing between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work) The library role
- 46. Extrapolations: Transnational campuses Averagestudent age: 40 Hourly faculty Privatizing public universities Hogwarts vs CCs What comes next?What comes next?
- 47. What comes next?Whatcomes next? Rich multimedia environment Some gamification Student as producer Disintegrated computing as a service Extensive data analysis, surveillance, creativity
- 48. Which of these trendsare the most powerful?
- 49. Which of these trendsare the most unpredicatble?
- 50. How does yourlife change?How does your life change? 1. Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance
- 51. Peak higher educationPeakhigher education Academia experiences a serious correction
- 52. The bubble burstThebubble burst http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
- 53. Grad programs checkedGradprograms checked
- 54. Perfect stormPerfect storm Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
- 55. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? Fewer, less crowded campuses Very international student body Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
- 56. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? Increased remedial programs College generally seen as job training
- 57. How does thisimpact learning?How does this impact learning? More alternatives: Maker movement expands More DIY learning, unschooling
- 58. Vocational techclasses are widespread in K-12 Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths Colleges have always been transnational
- 59. II:II: Health carenationHealth care nation Medical sector grows into leading US industry 45% of GDP
- 60. A new economyAnew economy Ageing population
- 61. A new economyAnew economy Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
- 62. How does thisimpact campuses?How does this impact campuses? More programs, more people, more tech Increased feminization of student body Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
- 63. Some tookpremed-themed classes in high school Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures Many already familiar with eldercare practices
- 64. III. Tutor me,SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri Tutoring software Commodit y and enterprise versions
- 65. How it happenedHowit happened Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science Commercial, governmental, academic projects Open education to draw upon
- 66. Higher education landscape: Two Cultures implementation divide Boom in CS, robotics departments Scholarship battles
- 67. Higher education landscape: Further adjunctification F2f undergrad, grad enrollments drop Math Emporium model
- 68. Expanded studyhalls in high school Beloved tutors carried to college, life Value humans for eccentricity, style
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- 76. Gaming as partof mainstreamGaming as part of mainstream cultureculture Median age of gamers shoots past 30 Industry size comparable to music Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players
- 77. Games serious, public, and political • Oiligarchy,Molle Industries • Jetset, Persuasive Games • The Great Shakeout, California • DimensionM, Tabula Digita
- 78. Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
- 79. •Joost Raessens andJeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005) •Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008) •Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009) Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field
- 80. How is gamingused now?How is gaming used now?
- 81. Use games toimpact society
- 82. Some impacts oncampusesSome impacts on campuses Changes in hardware, software Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both informal and formal Career paths
- 83. Interface changesInterface changes Gartner: end of the mouse Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)
- 84. Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: rare and/or smaller Professional development: distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is the norm › Both sides of the API
- 85. War onIP rages Nostalgia waves for old media Competing storytelling schools
- 86. Most studentsidentified with one+ game characters in K-12 Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors Most of their work and school is gamified
- 87. How does yourlife change?How does your life change? 1. Peak Higher Education 2. Health Care Nation 3. Tutor me, Siri 4. Renaissance
- 88.