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Mark1 designing peace tech 101, april 21, 2015, pil bogota sponsor talk
- 2. Designing Peace & Peace Technology Mark Nelson & Margarita Quihuis April 21, 2015 Stanford Peace Innovation Lab Bogotá launch talk AN OVERVIEW
- 3. 3 Margarita Quihuis CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB RESEARCHER, STANFORD BEHAVIOR DESIGN LAB A social entrepreneur and mentor capitalist, Margarita Quihuis’s career has focused on innovation, technology incubation, access to capital and entrepreneurship. Her accomplishments include being the first director of Astia (formerly known as the Women’s Technology Cluster), a business incubator where her portfolio companies raised $67 million in venture funding, venture capitalist, Reuters Fellow at Stanford, and Director of RI Labs for Ricoh Innovations. She is currently a member of the research team at Stanford Design Lab, and directs the Stanford Peace Innovation Lab where she conducts research on innovation, mass collaboration, persuasive technology & the potential of social networks to change society for the better. Her projects have included the study of collaboration and citizen engagement to foster government innovation – Manor Labs, the application of mass interpersonal persuasion to foster social movements – Social-M, bottoms-up post-disaster response and recovery – Relief 2.0 and citizen psy-op efforts such as the the Israel Loves Iran and Romancing the Border social media campaigns. She is a recognized thought leader in the areas of innovation, emergent social behavior and technology and has been part of Deloitte’s On Social Roundtable and Aspen Institute’s Dialogue on Open Innovation and Dialogue on Diplomacy and Technology. As Director of R I Labs for Ricoh Innovations she created a consumer focused innovation lab that focused on new market opportunities from generational behavior (Millennials), cloud and mobile computing, emerging social technologies, crowdsourcing and open innovation.
- 4. 4 Mark Nelson FOUNDER, CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB Former relief-worker, investment banker, and social entrepreneur, Mark Nelson founded and co-directs Stanford Peace Innovation Lab, where he researches mass collaboration and mass interpersonal persuasion. Mark focuses on designing, catalyzing, incentivizing, and generating resources to scale up collective positive human behavior change. He has described a functional, quantitative definition of peace, in terms of engagement quantity and quality across social difference lines; he has identified innovative, automated ways to measure peace, both at the neighborhood and global level; and he has developed a formal structural description for Peace Data. He leads the Social Energy Map project, and designs technology interventions to measurably increase positive, mutually beneficial engagement across conflict boundaries. Mark’s mission is to create an entire new, profitable industry, where positive peace is delivered as a service. Other projects include EPIC Global Challenge and Peace Markets. Mark is also a researcher and practitioner at Stanford Persuasive Technology Lab, and a member of Stanford’s Kozmetsky Global Collaboratory.
- 5. Overview 1. What is Peace Innovation? 2. Peace Tech Overview 3. Peace for Profit 4. Designing Peace Technology 5. Examples from the Wild
- 6. Part 1. What is Peace Innovation? The Academic view “At Stanford Peace Innovation Lab, we develop quantitative, predictive, computational methods and systems to sense engagement levels and interaction quality across group boundaries. We then provide design frameworks, principles, and methodologies for Behavior Design and Persuasive Technology interventions, to measurably increase positive engagement, at scale. This approach to global risk management is primarily preventive, positive, and generative, rather than remedial or punitive. In addition it can be rapidly scaled and optimized. Most important, it is fundamentally profitable to both sides of potential conflicts, enabling global capital markets to reallocate assets towards the solutions we develop.”
- 7. Put more simply? Peace Innovation is… “Designing technology that increases people’s ability to be good to each other.”
- 8. So what is peace technology? “Mediating technology that measurably augments people’s ability to positively engage with each other.”
- 9. Is there a relationship between Peace and Innovation? Yes. PEACE enables better collaboration, improving… INNOVATION creates new value and mutual benefit, generating more… Because specialization (and therefore diversity) are vital inputs into innovation…
- 10. So…why Peace Technology? The big problem: FIVE DEEP HUMAN TRENDS. THE FUTURE WILL BE: 1. Urban… 2. Dense… 3. Coastal… 4. Networked. Result? 5. Most human conflict will be with irregular, non-state actors, in these urban environments (Kilcullen, 2012) 10
- 11. Implications: Urgent Learning Needs In the next three decades Between 3 and 5 billion more of us must learn to get along with each other much better in these dense environments. 11
- 12. Why Peace Technology? Solutions that weren’t previously possible For the first time in human history we are measuring and recording inter-personal (and inter-group) engagement, at very high resolution, in real-time. Social software and mobile devices passively record more social behavior every day. Now that we can measure social behavior, we can begin to design technology to increase and augment the behaviors we want. 12
- 13. Our Research Question: 13 HOW GOOD CAN HUMANS BE TO EACH OTHER?
- 14. The Quanta of Peace Individual episodes of human engagement 1. Episodes we can observe and record (for the first time in history!) 2. Episodes we can’t see--the known unknown 3. Episodes we don’t even know we don’t know—Bastiat and the paradox of unseen value vs. visible cost.
- 15. Engagement Episode Model of Peace (see whiteboard diagrams) 1. OLD ENGAGEMENT CHARACTERISTICS • PHYSICALLY PRESENT • FULLY EMBODIED • ALL FIVE SENSES (ONLY) • LIMITED IN TIME • LIMITED IN SPACE • LIMITED RECORD & MEMORY • LIMITED COMPUTATION • BASIC GROUP ID VISIBILITY 2. NEW ENGAGEMENT CHARACTERISTICS • TECHNOLOGY MEDIATED • MAY BE FAR APART • AUGMENTED—EITHER: • Improved ability, or • Previously impossible • DETAILED RECORD • INCREASING SENSOR ACUITY • COMPUTABLE • REACH ACROSS TIME AND SPACE • DEEP GROUP ID KNOWLEDGE
- 16. Collective Intelligence Collaboration Cooperation Coordination Communication Attention Awareness 0 HIGH QualityofEngagement Positive but Unstable Peace Sustainable Peace Corresponding Augmenting Technology Layers - Engagement Framework Negative Peace ?+ X Quantity of Engagement Positive but Unstable Peace
- 17. Peace Data in the context of Big Data Peace Data Social Behavior Data Behavior Data Human Data Machine-to-machine
- 18. 3. Peace for Profit? Why? M E A S U R A B L Y I N C R E A S I N G P O S I T I V E E N G A G E M E N T A C R O S S D I F F E R E N C E B O U N D A R I E S
- 19. The Deep Structural Problem of Resourcing Peace Our two traditional approaches: Policy & Diplomacy, or Philanthropy & Charity 1. First Problem: scale of resources to problem 2. Second Problem: where are the resources? Global capital markets 3. Third Problem: no effective resource bridge to either traditional path › Why? No price signal 4. Result? Fourth Problem: perverse investments 5. Solution? A for-profit peace service industry that creates a price/value signal for positive pro-social behavior
- 20. 4. Designing Peace Tech M E A S U R A B L Y I N C R E A S I N G P O S I T I V E E N G A G E M E N T
- 21. Peace Innovation Design: the Rapid Prototyping Loop Choose target communities Observe/choose tech they use Pick a Positive Engagement Behavior Create Fast Prototype Interventions Measure Impact Optimize (or Pivot) & Repeat
- 22. Peace Innovation Design: the Rapid Prototyping Loop What target communities? What tech (do they use)? What Behavior? What will we build to test? How many behaviors? Optimize (or Pivot) & Repeat
- 23. Peace Innovation Design: Rapid Prototyping Example Communities: Copts & Salafis in Cairo Tech they use: Facebook Positive Behavior: Take photos together to show they can get along Fast Prototype Intervention: FB Page and campaign Measure Impact: How many photos posted in half an hour? Optimize (or pivot) & Repeat
- 24. 24 Behavior Design vs Persuasive Technology • Observable measurable action • Move people to do something (not about changing attitudes or beliefs) • One time or repeated behaviors • Ability through simplicity • Triggers • Habits Web, mobile, social technologies & devices: • Give/increase ability • Act as Triggers • Are Sensors • Measure if behavior occurred • Deliver instant rewards to reinforce positive behavior BEHAVIOR DESIGN PROCESS PERSUASIVE TECHNOLOGY DELIVERY MECHANISM
- 25. Technology-mediated Behavior Change can be measured
- 26. Powerful analytics engines have been democratized
- 27. 5. Examples from the wild ( A N D E C O N O M I C I M P A C T )
- 28. 28 Four quick examples of peace technologies, and their economic impact Increasing positive engagement across difference boundaries: City Level: Citizen Engagement City Level: Citizen Engagement Neighborhood level: Civility Engagement National Level: Citizen Diplomacy
- 29. Design for Civil Engagement
- 30. Manor Labs – Experiment in Citizen Engagement Can a town use persuasive technology frameworks and applications to increase positive behaviors in communities? Can we increase positive engagement between citizens and government? Can we create new behaviors for citizen participation? 30
- 31. Manor Labs - Impact The City of Manor received input from over 800 citizens, out of a population of 5,325, on their ideation platform, evaluated 80 ideas and implemented 5. Recognized by the White House, Manor Labs was one of the first municipal innovation labs in the Gov 2.0 Movement. Manor Lab’s QR Codes design has been adapted to 5 other projects across the US. Ideation Platform has been used in 8 other projects, including those done by New York City, Bogota, Columbia, and the Cabinet Office in the UK.
- 32. 32 Behavior Design for Civility: Uber Meta behavior: Collaborative Consumption Targeted Behavior: Get People to Share Rides Secondary Behavior: Driver & Passenger are Considerate Behavior Goal: How do we get people to make Ride Sharing a Pleasant Experience? Possible Motivations: Save /Make Money Behavior Trigger: Rating Screen Persuasive Technologies: • Mobile App
- 33. 33 Social & Economic Impact of Uber As of May 2014 the Uber platform generates: 20,000 new driver jobs every month $90,766 median small business annual income in New York City and $74,191 in San Francisco $2.8 billion per year for the US economy (and growing) Average pickup time of less than 10 minutes for 137,451,768 Americans (43% of the US covered in less than 4 years) Reducing drunk driving i.e. more than 10% reduction in DUI arrests since launching in Seattle Current Valuation in June 2014: $17.4 billion dollars. The world’s most valuable startup
- 34. Design for Citizen Diplomacy 34
- 35. 35 Social & Economic Impact of AirBnB 87 percent of Airbnb hosts rent out the home they live in and the typical host earns $7,530 per year. 62 percent of Airbnb hosts say Airbnb helped them stay in their homes and more than 50 percent of hosts are non-traditional workers (freelancers, part-time workers, students, etc.). Airbnb visitors stay on average 6.4 nights (compared to 3.9 for hotel guests) and spend $880 at NYC businesses (compared to $690 for average New York visitors). 82 percent of Airbnb listings in New York are outside of the main tourist hotel area of midtown Manhattan and the average Airbnb guest spends $740 in the neighborhood where she stays. In one year, Airbnb generated $104 million in economic activity outside of Manhattan.
- 36. Contact & Resources MARK NELSON CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB [email protected] RESOURCES Peace Innovation Lab: peaceinnovation.stanford.edu Background & Overview: bit.ly/PeaceInnovationReading Stanford Economic Impact: bit.ly/stanfordinnoimpact Persuasive Technology: captology.stanford.edu Fogg Behavior Model: behaviormodel.org Behavior Grid: behaviorgrid.org
Editor's Notes
- #29: Lyft, AirBnB, Uber are all part of an emerging category of collaborative consumption applications. Of particular note is that they codify trust mechanisms and also act as a social organizing tool.
- #33: Lyft, AirBnB, Uber are all part of an emerging category of collaborative consumption applications. Of particular note is that they codify trust mechanisms and also act as a social organizing tool.