What would you do?
                              - Learning from charts

                                         Oct 3, 2011




   Mattias Skarin
 Kanban / Lean coach
          www.crisp.se


Say Hi to your neighbour!


                            http://blog.crisp.se/mattiasskarin
                                 mattias.skarin@crisp.se
Group into 5-8p
Choose a team name!
Learning objectives

  Understanding basics of Control charts, continuous flow chart
  Put yourself into real shoes – what should be happening
  Can you beat the monkey?




                                            http://rainbowwallpaper.blogspot.com/2011/04/f
                                             unny-monkey-cartoon-pics-monkey-funny.html
Mattias Skarin                                                                               2
Contributions

    Ismael Héry and Benoit Guillou
    Henrik Kniberg




 2011-10-06

Mattias Skarin                       3
(Some) valid purposes for collecting data
                                         Every learning starts with
 Validating a theory                    a question


 Learning over time

 Distinguish between variance and
trend

 Gain precision

                                     All tools needs a purpose.
                                     Know ”why” helps avoid
                                     expensive tools


Mattias Skarin                                                    4
Validating a theory   Arrived : Arrived tickets this week (green)
                      Resolved : Resolved tickets this week (black)




Mattias Skarin                                                   5
Validating a theory
100%
 90%
 80%
 70%
 60%
 50%                                                                   Value demand
 40%                                                                   Failure Demand
 30%
                                                                         Average 28 %
 20%
 10%
  0%
    Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Sprint 7

                                                            Data devteam 2009


Mattias Skarin                                                                          6
CHARTS BASICS

       2011-10-06

Mattias Skarin      7
Continuous flow chart
                         Started
   Stories                          Delivered




                  Cycle time



                  WIP




                                   Time


Mattias Skarin                                  8
Control charts
         Variable

                         + 3σ

                         Average

                         - 3σ


                    Observation




Mattias Skarin                     9
Goal: separate expected events from
unexpected




                 99.7 % of observations occurs within three std dev. of the mean
                 95 % occurs within two std. dev of the mean
                 68 % occurs within one std. dev of the mean

                                                    (Assuming normal distribution)

Mattias Skarin                                                                10
Can you beat the monkey?

   LEARNING FROM CHARTS

       2011-10-06

Mattias Skarin                11
Learning from real cases

    There can be multiple solutions to any problem
    You are self organizing!
    You need to motivate your choice
    I get to play god..



                                     Thou are allowed
                                     to ask questions!




Mattias Skarin                                           12
Organize

    Groups of 5-8
    Keep score
    Pick a team name




Mattias Skarin         13
The case




                                Sprint 1      Sprint 2     Sprint 3




                 The problem: Why do we always work with 5 projects in
                 parallell although we plan for two?




Mattias Skarin                                                           14
What should be happening?
         25




         20




         15                               To do
                                          In Dev
                                          To test
         10
                                          Done

          5




          0
              1   2   3   4   5   6   7




Mattias Skarin                                      15
25
                                         40% Todo (waiting)
                                         50 % Coding
20
                                         10% Testing

                                         33% Todo (waiting)
                                         17 % Coding
15
                                         50% Testing


10
                                            To do
                                            In Dev
5                                           To test
                                            Done

0
     1           2   3   4   5   6   7




Mattias Skarin                                                16
What should be happening?


 A. Assign a WIP on number of projects
 B. Pair program if you get stuck
 C. Hold back specification, until just before
    development
 D. Deliver, when testing is complete
 E. Other




Mattias Skarin                                   17
More examples exists but for now only demoed live



Mattias Skarin                                      18
What can trigger change?

Gradual
  Questions               – someone asking them
  New ideas               – how to do it better
  Consequence awareness   – ”this will happen if change does not take place”
  Consolidation           – a momentum grows large enough to overcome the
                          threshold



                   Fast
                     Will to experiment       – someone willing to give it a try
                     A failure                – ”uh-uh that didn’t work”




 Mattias Skarin                                                           19
Some final thoughts

    Charts + Situation knowledge = learning
    Useful in times of stress
    Keep it simple. Plot on your whiteboard.
    Not all facts trigger change
    Human action is required




Mattias Skarin                                 20
Thank you!




                 ”Change is not necessary. Survival is optional”
                      - W. E Deming




Mattias Skarin                                                     21

Mattias skarin what would you do - analysing charts

  • 1.
    What would youdo? - Learning from charts Oct 3, 2011 Mattias Skarin Kanban / Lean coach www.crisp.se Say Hi to your neighbour! http://blog.crisp.se/mattiasskarin [email protected] Group into 5-8p Choose a team name!
  • 2.
    Learning objectives Understanding basics of Control charts, continuous flow chart  Put yourself into real shoes – what should be happening  Can you beat the monkey? http://rainbowwallpaper.blogspot.com/2011/04/f unny-monkey-cartoon-pics-monkey-funny.html Mattias Skarin 2
  • 3.
    Contributions Ismael Héry and Benoit Guillou Henrik Kniberg 2011-10-06 Mattias Skarin 3
  • 4.
    (Some) valid purposesfor collecting data Every learning starts with  Validating a theory a question  Learning over time  Distinguish between variance and trend  Gain precision All tools needs a purpose. Know ”why” helps avoid expensive tools Mattias Skarin 4
  • 5.
    Validating a theory Arrived : Arrived tickets this week (green) Resolved : Resolved tickets this week (black) Mattias Skarin 5
  • 6.
    Validating a theory 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Value demand 40% Failure Demand 30% Average 28 % 20% 10% 0% Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Sprint 7 Data devteam 2009 Mattias Skarin 6
  • 7.
    CHARTS BASICS 2011-10-06 Mattias Skarin 7
  • 8.
    Continuous flow chart Started Stories Delivered Cycle time WIP Time Mattias Skarin 8
  • 9.
    Control charts Variable + 3σ Average - 3σ Observation Mattias Skarin 9
  • 10.
    Goal: separate expectedevents from unexpected 99.7 % of observations occurs within three std dev. of the mean 95 % occurs within two std. dev of the mean 68 % occurs within one std. dev of the mean (Assuming normal distribution) Mattias Skarin 10
  • 11.
    Can you beatthe monkey? LEARNING FROM CHARTS 2011-10-06 Mattias Skarin 11
  • 12.
    Learning from realcases There can be multiple solutions to any problem You are self organizing! You need to motivate your choice I get to play god.. Thou are allowed to ask questions! Mattias Skarin 12
  • 13.
    Organize Groups of 5-8 Keep score Pick a team name Mattias Skarin 13
  • 14.
    The case Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 The problem: Why do we always work with 5 projects in parallell although we plan for two? Mattias Skarin 14
  • 15.
    What should behappening? 25 20 15 To do In Dev To test 10 Done 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mattias Skarin 15
  • 16.
    25 40% Todo (waiting) 50 % Coding 20 10% Testing 33% Todo (waiting) 17 % Coding 15 50% Testing 10 To do In Dev 5 To test Done 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mattias Skarin 16
  • 17.
    What should behappening? A. Assign a WIP on number of projects B. Pair program if you get stuck C. Hold back specification, until just before development D. Deliver, when testing is complete E. Other Mattias Skarin 17
  • 18.
    More examples existsbut for now only demoed live Mattias Skarin 18
  • 19.
    What can triggerchange? Gradual Questions – someone asking them New ideas – how to do it better Consequence awareness – ”this will happen if change does not take place” Consolidation – a momentum grows large enough to overcome the threshold Fast Will to experiment – someone willing to give it a try A failure – ”uh-uh that didn’t work” Mattias Skarin 19
  • 20.
    Some final thoughts Charts + Situation knowledge = learning Useful in times of stress Keep it simple. Plot on your whiteboard. Not all facts trigger change Human action is required Mattias Skarin 20
  • 21.
    Thank you! ”Change is not necessary. Survival is optional” - W. E Deming Mattias Skarin 21