MREA Energy Fair 2015 - Midwest Solar Market Potential
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This document discusses the potential for solar energy adoption in the Midwest, particularly in Michigan, outlining the average electricity rates and consumption patterns. It includes calculations for return on investment for solar systems, the current fuel mix for electricity generation, and factors influencing solar market penetration. Key insights highlight the economic benefits of solar energy and the importance of consumer education in promoting solar adoption.
![OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013
[$/KWH]
MI Average: $0.14/kWh
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-3-320.jpg)
![Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates
by State (2013)
State
Average Price
[$/kWh]
Hawaii $0.37
Houghton $0.21-$0.24
New York $0.19
Alaska $0.19
Connecticut $0.18
Vermont $0.18
New Hampshire $0.17
California $0.16
New England $0.16
Middle Atlantic $0.16
Massachusetts $0.16
New Jersey $0.16
Michigan $0.15 Source: www.eia.gov](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-4-320.jpg)
![Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•6000 [kWh] (source)
Annual
Consumption :
•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]
Daily
Consumption:
•3.8 [h]
Average Daily
Sun Hours](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-19-320.jpg)
![Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate
Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size
• System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500
=$18,900System Cost
• 30% of system costs = $18,900 –
30%*18,900 = $13,448
Federal Tax
Rebate](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-21-320.jpg)
![Factors Influencing Solar Adoption
Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]
If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current
sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]
Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and
actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of
adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]
The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six
months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile
radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-32-320.jpg)
![OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013
[$/KWH]
MI Average: $0.14/kWh
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-40-320.jpg)
![PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption
MI Average: 8MWh/Year
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWESTENERGY
THUMB
CLOVERLAND
XCEL
WPS
AEP
MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC
CONSUMPTION 2013 [MWH/YEAR]Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual
Reports 2013](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/mrea-150622192811-lva1-app6891/85/MREA-Energy-Fair-2015-Midwest-Solar-Market-Potential-42-320.jpg)
MREA Energy Fair 2015 - Midwest Solar Market Potential
- 1. Midwest Solar Market Potential Abhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| MichiganTechnological University
- 2. Houghton Winters Source: Mining Journal Source: Mining Gazette Source: Michigan Tech Alumni Source: Mining Journal Source: boniashburn.com
- 3. OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWEST… THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013 [$/KWH] MI Average: $0.14/kWh Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
- 4. Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates by State (2013) State Average Price [$/kWh] Hawaii $0.37 Houghton $0.21-$0.24 New York $0.19 Alaska $0.19 Connecticut $0.18 Vermont $0.18 New Hampshire $0.17 California $0.16 New England $0.16 Middle Atlantic $0.16 Massachusetts $0.16 New Jersey $0.16 Michigan $0.15 Source: www.eia.gov
- 5. MichiganTech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center
- 6. Location:Tree Cover and SolarWindow Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com Best Summer Angle: 30* Best Winter Angle: 60* Best Average Angle: 47*
- 7. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo Source: nsidc.org 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349 361 W/m^2 Day of the Year Solar Irradiation and Albedo S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2) Source: MTU KRC
- 8. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 107 213 319 425 531 637 743 849 955 1,061 1,167 1,273 1,379 1,485 1,591 1,697 1,803 1,909 2,015 2,121 2,227 2,333 2,439 2,545 2,651 2,757 2,863 2,969 3,075 3,181 3,287 3,393 3,499 3,605 3,711 3,817 EnergyProduced(Wh) Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013 PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions 45* 30* 15* Shedding from 45* Source: MTU KRC
- 9. Source: MTU KRC Data
- 11. Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day* Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh Source: pveducation.org *Source: MTU KRC Data
- 12. Source: pveducation.org California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day* Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh
- 14. Source: MTU KRC Data Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
- 15. Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
- 19. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton •6000 [kWh] (source) Annual Consumption : •6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh] Daily Consumption: •3.8 [h] Average Daily Sun Hours
- 20. Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day* Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh Source: pveducation.org *Source: MTU KRC Data
- 21. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton • Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size • System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500 =$18,900System Cost • 30% of system costs = $18,900 – 30%*18,900 = $13,448 Federal Tax Rebate
- 22. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton •Energy*Rates = 6000*0.21 = $1,260 Annual Savings •System Costs / Annual Savings = 11 years Payback Period
- 25. Utility Fuel Source Summary Fuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43% Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36% Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77% Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55% Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65% Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49% Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45% Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75% Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49% Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44% Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% Source: OCREA Fuel Mix Report Source: MPSC Regional Average Fuel Mix Disclosure Source: EIA Total Power Industry Fuel Sources
- 26. Currently all MI utilities are on track to meet RES Compliance* Phased integration of renewables 50% cheaper than new coal generation facilities. *Source: MPSC Report on RESCompliance *Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source Impact of MI PA 295
- 27. Benefits of Renewables Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth Report on Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private sector employment in state International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.
- 28. Actual Quote: “The only green that matters, is the color of my $$$$$” (Obviously, not a philosopher)
- 30. Population Aggregate MW Solar People Per Panel Houghton 30,000 0.003 2,500 California 38,041,430 1892.05 5 Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35 Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51 New Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3 Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2
- 31. Large majority of installed net metered customer generation is Solar. Source: MPSCAnnual Net Metering Report 2014 Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations Growth of Solar in Michigan
- 32. Factors Influencing Solar Adoption Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al] If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al] Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of adoption. [Arkesteijn et al] The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]
- 33. Steps to Solar How much am I consuming? Reading your electricity bill Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location? How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments? How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase? Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time? Environmental Impact? Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
- 35. Steps to Solar How much am I consuming? Reading your electricity bill Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location? How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments? How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase? Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time? Environmental Impact? Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
- 38. 2013 2014 2015
- 39. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton 2013:- ~30kW Summer 2014: 60kW added Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
- 40. OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWEST… THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013 [$/KWH] MI Average: $0.14/kWh Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013 PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates
- 41. PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWESTENERGY THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATE INCREASE 2001-2013 MI Average: 74% Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary
- 42. PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption MI Average: 8MWh/Year OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWESTENERGY THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION 2013 [MWH/YEAR]Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
- 43. Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank OCREA 1 1 1 1 ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 UPPCO 3 2 4 3 WEPCO 5 4 6 4 PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 XCEL 15 13 8 11 CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 WPS 16 10 12 12 AEP 17 7 15 14 TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 THUMB 13 17 17 17 PV Residential Solar Market Potential
- 44. Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank Rank by % Net- Generation OCREA 1 1 1 1 1 ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2 UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4 WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11 PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5 ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6 DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7 GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8 CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12 MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9 XCEL 15 13 8 11 14 CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/A WPS 16 10 12 12 12 AEP 17 7 15 14 13 TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/A CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10 THUMB 13 17 17 17 3 PV Residential Solar Market Potential
- 46. City of Lake Crystal - (MN) $0.15 Princeton Public Utils Comm $0.15 North Itasca Electric Coop Inc $0.15 Arrowhead Electric Coop, Inc $0.15 People's Cooperative Services $0.14 East Central Energy $0.14 Northwestern Wisconsin Elec Co $0.14 Tri-County Electric Coop $0.14 Steele-Waseca Cooperative Electric $0.14 Mille Lacs Energy Cooperative $0.13 New Ulm Public Utilities Comm $0.13 City of Saint Peter $0.13 North Star Electric Coop, Inc $0.13 Lake Country Power $0.13 South Central Electric Assn $0.13 City of Elk River $0.13 BENCO Electric Cooperative $0.13 Cooperative L&P Assn Lake County $0.13 City of Chaska $0.13 Freeborn-Mower Coop Services $0.13
- 47. Contact Information Abhilash Kantamneni 221 Rekhi Hall Michigan Tech 1400 Townsend Drive Houghton MI [email protected] www.Abhilash.me www.SolarizeHoughton.org
- 49. Bonus Slides!
- 51. Cabbages and Solar? Sell Price: $0.21 each Buying Price: $0.03 each
- 53. Electric Utility Markets are a “Zero-Sum Game” Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission + $$Distribution + $$Administration + $$Return on Equity
- 54. Working Group Recommendations Expand Net Metering to state wide 50MW Credit on net generation Credit on generation Source: MPSC SolarWorking Group Report, June 2014
- 55. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE
- 57. Organic cabbages? Healthier Locally grown No new roads No large farms
- 58. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS used in Minnesota
- 59. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS used in Austin,Texas
- 62. Storage: Generation Shifting Credit: climatetechwiki.org
- 63. Storage: Load Shifting Credit: Scientific American
- 64. Reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for all Goals:
- 65. Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE
- 66. Public Awareness Technological Maturity Regulatory Action Legislative Support Market Drivers
- 67. How to Bring Change: Homeboy Solar Industries • Increases Sustainability • Reduced Prison Recidivism • Saves taxpayer money
- 68. Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton
- 69. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton 2013:- ~30kW Summer 2014: 60kW added Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
- 70. Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015) Buying Club Workshop Public Seminars DIY Kits
- 71. Source: MTU KRC Data Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
- 72. Summer Production: 77 Sq. miles Winter Production: 1,732 Sq. miles