Findings of the IPCC
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The document summarizes key findings from reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It notes that CO2 emissions have increased 60% since 1990 and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has risen 45%, with temperature increasing 0.9°C. Sea levels have risen 19 cm. It discusses Sri Lanka's renewable energy potential from sources like wind and solar power, and dependence on fossil fuel imports that stress foreign currency reserves. Transitioning to renewable energy could help mitigate climate change impacts and address energy security issues.
Findings of the IPCC
- 1. Asoka Abeygunawardana Executive Director , Energy Forum Board Member – Climate Action Network South Asia Findings of the IPCC-AR5
- 2. • IPCC – 1988 • IPCC: AR 1 - 1990 – UNFCCC • IPCC: AR 2 - 1995 – Mitigation - Kyoto Protocol • IPCC: AR 3 - 2001 – Adaptation • IPCC: AR 4 - 2007 - Ultimate Objective (2°C) Bali/ Copenhagen/ Durban • IPCC: AR 5 - 2014 - ??? – DRR/ Loss & Damage; • Migration/ Riots IPCC
- 3. WG I (Physical science basis): 209 lead authors, 2014 pages, 54,677 review comments – Sept, 2013 WG II (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability): 243 lead authors, 2500 pages, 50,492 review comments - March, 2014 WG III (Mitigation of Climate Change): 235 coordinating and lead authors, 2000 pages, 38,315 review comments –April, 2014
- 4. CO2 emission – 60% since 1990 CO2 Concentration – 45% Temperature – 0.9oC Sea level rise – 19 cm GHG Emissions – Past, Present and Future
- 5. WG1 12-129
- 9. What has happened since 1990?
- 10. 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 Coal (x500x million t/y) Gas ('00 million cubic m/y) Oil (billion bbl/y) Carbon Budget CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (50%) 1,120 Gt CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (66%) 1,010 Gt
- 11. Pathways
- 12. ldnka msglsÍu ms<sn| fn,a jl%h Understanding the Bell curve Right to pollute …… ? Bell Curve- Compensation …? BAU – Growth Curve Agenda for Developing World ;=kajk f,dalhg kHdh m;%hla @2015 2020 S - curve 50% chance peaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm
- 14. REEE
- 15. High wind potential: over 6% of land Potential capacity- 20,000 MW. Lagoon areas: Potential capacity - 24,000 MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of America Brown - 5.6< <8.8 Blue - 8.8< Wind Power Dendro Power Solar Power Range • 4.2 to 5.6 kWh/m2/day on a horizontal surface • 4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day for a flat plate collector tilted to latitude • 7.32 kWh/m2/day With two axis tracking one axis done manually for seasons
- 16. - 50.00 100.00 Unitprice(Rs/kWh) Year Cost of Electricity Mini hydro Wind Biomass - dendro Coal considering scarcity Coal with import tax & scarcity
- 17. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 reñ,shk jir bkaOk wdkhkyd idïm%odhsl wmkhk f;a" rn¾" fmd,a wmkhk bkaOk wdkhk Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber and Coconut exports Issue 3- Stress on Foreign Currency Reserves m%Yakh2- úfoaYúksuhixÑ; u;we;s jk mSvkh
- 18. Total potential - 2000 MW Potential HEZ - 200 MW Wave Power OTEC Energy Hub? Exclusive Economic Zone - 200 nautical miles- 517,000 km2 7.8 times SL
- 19. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Energy(GWh) CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032 Oil Coal NCRE New Major Hydro Existing Major Hydro ,xúuckkie,eiau jd¾Isl ^2013-32&jd¾Isl úÿ,sckkh Source: CEB Power
- 20. International Negotiations……! Think Locally – Act Globally Think Globally – Act Locally