Download to read offline
Uploaded byCIM East of England
Paul Flatters CIM Spring Marketing Conference 2015
The document discusses the fragmented economic landscape in the UK, marked by varying GDP growth rates across regions and the ongoing impact of austerity measures on public sector employment. It highlights demographic shifts, notably the aging population, and cultural changes reflecting political fragmentation and evolving consumer behaviors. Marketers are urged to adapt their strategies to address the complexities of diverse consumer needs and lifestyles in this challenging environment.
More Related Content
Similar to Paul Flatters CIM Spring Marketing Conference 2015
Paul Flatters CIM Spring Marketing Conference 2015
- 1. From Segments toFragments Conflicting economic signals and their implications for marketers Presentation to CIM Spring Conference Paul Flatters
- 2. The forces offragmentation ME
- 3. Presentation content • Economiccontext: Multi-speed and polarised • Demographic context: The peril of stereotypes • Cultural context: The New Morality, mobile connectivity and local activism
- 4. ECONOMIC CONTEXT: MULTI- SPEEDAND POLARISED
- 5. Living through economichistory -9.0% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak 80s recession 90s recession Great Depression Current downturn Source: ONS/Trajectory
- 6. Three narratives forthe UK economy “Boom time Britain” Automotive industry raises 2013 new car forecast as July posts 17th consecutive monthly rise UK jobless claimant count plunges, unemployment steady “Cost of living crisis” “Austerity Britain” Budget cuts could make councils 'go bust' says senior councillor
- 7. 2.8 3.0 2.6 -0.3 -4.3 1.9 1.6 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.82.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 UK GDP growth, % year on year Real Forecast Source: Oxford Economics 2014 Recovery underway and set to continue
- 8. But economic prospectsvary by region Greater London 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.5% UK Regional Growth 2014-19 (average annual GDP growth forecast) Source: ONS/Experian (2013 forecasts) London is expected to see the greatest increase in GDP growth at 2.7%, whilst Wales and N. Ireland are to expect the lowest at 1.6%
- 9. ...and there areeven bigger local disparities Local Authority Average growth rate Region Harrogate 2.5% Yorks & The Humber East Yorkshire 1.4% Yorks & The Humber Richmondshire 0.3% Yorks & The Humber Manchester 2.5% North West Blackpool 1.4% North West Copeland 0.6% North West Kens & Chelsea 3.0% Greater London Merton 3.0% Greater London Greenwich 2.3% Greater London Lewisham 2.1% Greater London Average annual GDP growth forecast 2014-19 Source: ONS/Experian
- 10. -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2005 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Wage and price inflation growth, % year on year Consumer Price Index Consumer Price index - forecast Wages and salaries - real Wages and salaries - forecast Inflation is falling, while wages are (slowly) growing (for some) Source: Oxford Economics 2014
- 11. Wages will notrecover fully until 2017 (at the earliest) 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average wages (2007=100) Source: Oxford Economics 2014
- 12. Public sector austerityto continue until 2020 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Employment in public/private sector, y/y % change Public sector Private sector Spending cuts are forecast to continue into the next parliament (after 2015 general election) and will have a major impact on public sector employment – even as the private sector continues to grow Source: Oxford Economics
- 13. Changes in EmploymentUK: 2008-2014 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Total Employment Employees Self-employed Source: ONS
- 14. The labour marketin 2015: Fragility
- 15. Skills deficit &the ‘hour glass’ economy 58% 57% 54% 50% 49% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% Skills gaps caused by lack of each skill Skills Commission 2013
- 16.
- 17. Changing populations Over thenext decade there will be massive growth in the numbers of older people worldwide, but also pockets of growth (and decline) elsewhere 65-79s +41% 80+ +29% Under 20s +5% 20-34s 0% 35-49s +13% 50-64s +21% +15% +22% +6% -6% 0% +10% +40% +27% +5% +3% +6% -3% +10% +17% -2% -5% -19% +15% +8% +30% +14% -2% 0% +8% World UK USA Italy Sweden Population growth, 2015-2025 Source: UN WPP 2012
- 18. Changing meaning ofage Source: Willmott, Nelson, Complicated Lives, 2005 / Trajectory More time before family = more time spent in education/training Fewer children = less time as ‘parent’ and less financial constraint Longer retirement and shorter ‘old age’ = longer independence
- 19. UK population by generationalgroup 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Gen Extra Gen Y Gen X Baby Boomer Pre War Pre War Baby Boomer Gen X Gen Y % of UK adult (18+) population in each generational grouping, 1971–2020 Source: ONS/Trajectory
- 20. Two Hyperbolic Narratives Pre-recession GenerationNext The iGeneration Digital Natives Post-recession The Jilted Generation The Lost Generation Generation Screwed
- 21. The many facesof Ageing
- 22. Diversity DIVERSE PEOPLE-DIVERSE CULTURE-DIVERSEEXPECTATIONS
- 23. Complex Families Separation. Divorce.Marriage. Remarriage. Step-Children. No children. My Children. Grand Children. Mixed Ethnicity. Same Sex. Education. Housing. Child-Care. Income. Leisure. Privacy. Freedom. Great-Grand Children. Vertical Families. Emigrants. Immigrants. Mixed-Faith. Single Parents.
- 24.
- 25. Political Fragmentation: No LongerTwo Tribes 97 90 87 75 81 77 74 68 65 83 61 65 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1951 1966 1970 1974 1979 1997 2001 2005 2010 Labour & Conservative combined share of national vote at selected General Elections Two Party Share of UK GE Vote (%) Turn Out
- 26. Current UK PollingReport Polling Average - UK 34 33 15 9 6 4 Labour Conservative UKIP Lib Dem Green Other
- 27. Is it reallyhappening? Does it really matter?
- 28. The New Morality Self-PreservationSociety C-Suite Scrutiny Brands: Citizen to Personal The Compromised Consumer Value Hunting Discretionary Thrift Mercurial Consumption Decline of Deference Anxiety Society Hyper-Connectivity financial crisis, recession, austerity, stagnation, debt, youth, income, employment
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
- 32. Hybrid Portfolios “To bea successful youth brand, you must be able to do at least one of three things: make young people’s life easier, more fun or save them money” Simon Eder, Voxburner
- 33. F&B responses tofragmentation
- 34. Fragmentation of marketingitself Customer journey of the future…
- 35. Thank you Trajectory Ltd EnterpriseHouse 1-2 Hatfields London SE1 9PG T 020 3567 5801 #TrajectoryTweet www.trajectorypartnership.com Paul Flatters: Founder & CEO [email protected]