Cities in 2065: Science and Foresight, Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scientific Adviser

Cities in 2065: Science and Foresight, Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scientific Adviser

• 1.
  Future of Cities: Thinkingfor the long-term Sir Mark Walport Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government RCUK Water Showcase // June 30th 2015
• 2.
  Foresight Future ofCities Cities matter Cities are dense concentrations of people, jobs, culture, productivity Cities are the places where policy objectives succeed or fail E.g. 2 Employment Health Growth Water efficiency Housing
• 3.
  Foresight Future ofCities The UK is in the process of devolving powers to cities The UK has been devolving powers to cities for 15 years… …the pace is now accelerating Greater London Authority created English Mayoral Referendums Manchester Devolution Deal Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill 2000 2012 2014 20152013 City deals (Waves 1 & 2) 2007 Further powers transferred to GLA 3
• 4.
  Foresight Future ofCities Many recent reports on cities What are the prominent themes and signals about the future of our cities? 4
• 5.
  Foresight Future ofCities What we are currently thinking: Future cities should be liveable cities 5
• 6.
  Foresight Future ofCities6 To realise attractive future cities, there must be greater engagement with water as a critical development issue Gas Street Basin, Birmingham
• 7.
  Foresight Future ofCities Cities affect water, water affects cities 7 recreation biodiversity resilience community health Cities affect the natural water cycle Water affects city well-being & development flash-flooding run-off evaporation infiltration
• 8.
  Foresight Future ofCities8 Foresight Land Use Futures recommended water issues feature systematically into decision-making on national and local development Source: RTPI (2014) Significant overlap between projected future city growth and areas of serious water stress
• 9.
  Foresight Future ofCities But the nature of city systems reveals some fundamental challenges 9
• 10.
  Foresight Future ofCities Challenge 1: City systems have long cycles of impact New towns Green belts City deals GLA Service economy Railway investment Devolution Municipal bonds Car-oriented development Digital technologies Cotton trade Canals National Grid Growth of UK Ports Brownfield development Welfare state Shipbuilding Importanceofcitiesasautonomousunits 2000s1900s1800s Increasing obesity levels City networks 10
• 11.
  Foresight Future ofCities Heritage Attractiveness of place Creative Economy Teacher attraction & retention Housing Student performance School capacity Land availability Quality urban form Employment Well-being Minimising isolation & loneliness Neighbourliness Cultural events & activitiesUniversities Innovation Economic productivity Connectivity New technology Agglomeration opportunities Short commute Strong labour marketActive travel Travel to work Challenge 2: City systems are highly interdependent ICT infrastructure 11
• 12.
  Foresight Future ofCities Thinking with a system-wide view What do we have to do? Respond with appropriate ways of thinking NOW FUTURE Thinking with a long-term view 12
• 13.
  Foresight Future ofCities How can we better support this? Greater availability of data is driving new analytical approaches Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for future cities development 13
• 14.
  Foresight Future ofCities14 Research has key role Research required to: • Address knowledge gaps • Drive innovation • Develop UK skills, expertise Significant contribution by UK Water Partnership to Foresight Future of Cities project that maps the current state of research and critical knowledge gaps
• 15.
  Foresight Future ofCities15 Many knowledge gaps to be addressed Water quantity & quality  Impact of disease vectors changes  Urban pollution  Invasive species  Food production changes User behaviour  Lifestyle impacts  Regulation for water efficiency  Community engagement  Policy effectiveness Infrastructure  Impact of scaling  Refurbishment options  Cross-sectoral links  Investment approaches  Smart monitoring Groundwater  Flooding risk  Sustainable urban drainage systems  Urban landscape design Extreme events  Water cycle patterns  Risk and resilience  Mitigation strategies Ecosystem services  Biodiversity impacts  Social impacts  Urban farming growth  Health benefits
• 16.
  Foresight Future ofCities Diversity in evidence types required Local consultation and visioning Academic reviews Workshop feedback Future trends analysis Comparative data Disruptive ideas Aspirational visions 16
• 17.
  Foresight Future ofCities Diversity in methods required Speculative design Future projections Data analytics & modelling Major city empowerment London-centric Smaller cities focus Baseline 2037 UK national system “What-if” scenarios 17
• 18.
  Foresight Future ofCities Include local people 18
• 19.
  Foresight Future ofCities “My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future… The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.” Eugene Hénard (1910) 19
• 20.
  Every effort hasbeen made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] . @foresightgovuk www.gov.uk/go-science