Predictive analytics

Predictive analytics

• 1.
  PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
• 2.
  WHAT IS PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS??
• 3.
  ‣NEXT BEST OFFERFROM AMAZON ‣PRODUCT RECOMMENDATION SPECIFIC TO CUSTOMERS ‣FORECAST OF NEXT QUARTER’S SALE ‣DIGITAL MARKETING MODELS TO DETERMINE WHAT AD TO PLACE ON WHAT PUBLISHER’S SITE ‣PREDICTION OF STOCK PRICES ‣INVESTMENT BANKING; WHETHER TO BUY OR SELL INTO SOME ASSET IT IS….
• 4.
  HOW TO PREDICT FUTUREFROM DATA
• 5.
  THERE IS NOWAY THAT WE CAN FETCH THE DATA FROM FUTURE
• 6.
  BUT WE CANPREDICT FUTURE USING DATA FROM PAST
• 7.
  SKILLS REQUIRED TO ANALYZEDATA FOR FUTURE
• 8.
  1. GOOD DATA FROMGOOD SOURCE 2. STATISTICAL WIZARDRY 3 MODEL BASED ON RELIABLE ASSUMPTIONS
• 9.
  ‣ CREATE DEMOGRAPHICATTRIBUTES OF CUSTOMER(for e.g. age, gender etc) ‣ ATTRIBUTES OF THE DATA ‣ MACHINE LEARNING TO PREDICT THE DATA ‣ THE SOURCE OF DATA SHOULD BE RELIABLE ‣ CREATE SINGLE CUSTOMER DATABASE WITH UNIQUE CUSTOMER ID’s TO PREDICT MORE ACCURATELY HOW TO USE THE DATA
• 10.
  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS THE MAINMETHOD FOR PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS IS REGRESSION MODEL. IN THIS WE ASSUME A DATA SET AND PERFORM SOME TESTS TO CHECK THE DEPENDABILITY OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ON EACH OTHER. THESE TESTS INVOLVE CHI-SQ TEST AND T-TEST THIS FINDS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EVERY VARIABLE AND PREPARES THE BEST REGRESSION MODEL
• 11.
  ASSUMPTION THE CRUCIAL PARTOF THE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS IS THE CORRECT ASSUMPTION. THE MOST COMMON MISTAKE THAT PEOPLE MAKE IS; THEY ARE USING THE ASSUMPTION BASED MODEL THAT WAS CREATED SEVERAL YEARS AGO.THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THE MODEL DOES NOT ACCURATELY PREDICT CURRENT BEHAVIOURS. ONE MORE MISTAKE THAT PEOPLE TEND TO MAKE IS THAT THE VARIBALE THEY ARE USING IN PREDICTION MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER THE PERIOD OF TIME.
• 12.
  THE CONSEQUENCES OFBAD ASSUMPTIONS ECONOMIC FAILURE!!!!!!
• 13.
  TIPS FOR MANAGERS MANAGERSSHOULD CAREFULLY CHECK THE ATTRIBUTES AND THE REGRESSION MODEL CREATED BY THE ANALYSTS FOR DATA PREDICTION. THEY SHOULD ALSO HAVE A CHECK ON THE ASSUMPTIONS; IF THEY ARE VALID AND HAVE NOT CHANGED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY LIKE INDIA WHOSE ECONOMY IS CONSTANTLY CHANGING. FOR THIS THEY NEED TO HAVE CERTAIN KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE DATA AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.
• 14.
  BIBLIOGRAPHY WEBSITES: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Vl26TosaYe3XZGZVt2ZUM_blQ8RhPFlbzcSzbqjm-Q8/edit# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_Lehman_Brothers http://www.lehman.com
• 15.
  THANKS