Presentation_1367016487728

Presentation_1367016487728

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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -1-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman The ARENA Genome: Harmonic Strategic Planning Arena Layers: Corporate, Business Function- Define Hierarchy Refinement Stages: Arena, Focus, Action Create Strategy Business ACTION Dynamic Vectors: Change, Vision, Scenario. Leader Navigates Corporate Layer: Portfolio Businesses Maximize Value Function Layer: Process, Project and Product Agile value drive Business Layer: Positioning Products by Market Strategy Prof. Jacob A. Frankel, Chairman of Sovereign Advisory Group and Global Financial Institutions Group, Merrill Lynch: JIT inventory management will help quick recovery.
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -2-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Skimming (Type I disruptive Innovation) PC Processors $ D P IV $819->$352 Athlon P III 486 Cyrix K6 Celeron Power PC Diversification, Cow Cannibalization VCRs $ D Chasm Ampex $50K Sony Beta Matsushita VHS Cell Phone $ D Beeper Pelephone Niche Products Satellite Iridium` Skim Niche Mass Market Distributors Hedged Skimming: Tang, RDC, Velcro Adoption Rate Utility Capacity Time/ Quantity Learning Curve Moor’s Law Cost Hong Kong Effect Time/ Quantity Cost Leader Follower Advantage Orange Cellcom Focus: Returning R&D investment, Constrained production capacity, Limited demand IBM Effect Gillette Costs-4%/Y
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -3-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Storming Storming Pharmaceutical $ D Divide 1. Ethical Viagra Prozak 2. Generic Storming $ D 1.Leader: Apple Closed Architecture Self sufficient 2.Follower: IBM effect Open Architecture Outsourcing 3. Me Too:No Name Hong Kong Effect Compaq Devoted Follower Time 1st 50% Price 2nd 50% Patent Apple Peripherals Apple Computer Education Mac OS SW Apple Distributors Motorola HP IBM Cluster IBM Computer Business MS, Lotus DOS/SW Peripherals IBM++ Dealers Intel Compaq Digital Focus: Maximizing revenues during patent duration; Rigid demand Storming $ D Sensor Excel (+60%) Mach3 +35% Atra
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -4-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Flooding 1. Server Navigator Acrobat Total Cost Users Utility/User Bob Metcalf’s Network Externalities Focus: Market share leadership (Eyeballs, Hits); Lock-in+Oligopoly+Value added Hybrid Car Dumping $ D 1. I B M W hi Flooding $ D Ford Levittown Diners’ Zara IKEA McDonalds 2.Toyota Honda Leveraged Dumping $ D 1. Client Navigator2. Explorer NT Dumping $ D Sony Economies of Scale Sony: $279+ RealNetworks Nintendo: Dolphin IBM+3D by ArtX MS Xbox $299.99 ($125) Launch: 800K games, 1.5M@2001 $500M marketing budget
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -5-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman 1918 Model T Foreign 1/3 Oil Crisis Market consolidation 20 40 60 80 10 0 Competitors 199019881986198419821980 1991 Disk drive Market Web surfing in US, 50% of time: March 1999, 50B Mins: 11 sites (60%=110) March 2001, 73B Mins: 4 sites (60%= 14) 32% America Online Time Warner 7.5% Microsoft 7.2% Yahoo 3.6% Napster
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -6-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Low Cost Positive Loop Quantity Manufactured Cost/unitPrice Quantity Sold Market Demand: Price Elasticity Production Function: Economies of Scale 1:Skimming 23 4 5 Low Cost Differentiation Dumping
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -7-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Piercing / Guerilla (Type II disruptive Innovation) 2.Red Hat Focus: Penetrating through niche, transforming non-entity into recognized brand Linux Guerilla $ D 1.Shareware Copy Left: Gnu, Ada S.E. Asian Guerilla $ D High Retail Margins Dependable-Quality Earth-Moving-Equipment Strong service and Support Worldwide Availability Strong, Loyal Dealer Network High Margins Premium Price Full Line of Quality Products R&D Investment Low Dividends Global Volume Low Cost High Plant Investment Low Debt Local Assembly
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -8-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Komatsu’s strategic Roll-out – Skinning the Cat Maru-C: “Encircle Caterpillar” Protect home market against Caterpillar (’81:50% world earth-moving equipment vs.16%) Licensing deals with: Cummins Engine, International Harvester. Acquire technology and establish benchmarks. Project Ace: Advance quality of small and medium-sized bulldozers above Caterpillar’s Quality Circles companywide to provide training for all employees Reduce cost while maintaining quality Cost Down Total Cost Down Make Komatsu an international enterprise and build export markets Develop Eastern bloc countries Komatsu Europe marketing subsidiary established Komatsu America established Project B to improve durability and reliability and reduce cost of large bulldozers Project C to improve payloaders Project D to improve Hydraulic excavators Establish presale and service department to assist construction projects in newly industrializing countries Respond to external shocks that threaten markets V-10 program to reduce costs by 10%; reduce parts by 20%. ¥180 program to budget companywide for ¥180/$ when exchange rate was ¥240/$ Response to Oil Crisis: Project E establish teams to redouble cost and quality efforts. Create new products and markets Accelerate product development to expand line. Future and Frontiers program to identify new businesses based on society’s needs and company know-how. EPOCHS: reconcile greater product variety with improved production efficiencies. (’84:Caterpillar=43% world earth-moving equipment vs.Komatsu=25%)
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -9-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action How Has Compaq Stayed on Top of the Server Industry?, HBR Relative Level High Low Tim e1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Expandability ApplicationCompatibility FileandPrintCompatibility Performance PriceSystemPro Expandability ApplicationCompatibility FileandPrintCompatibility Performance Price ProSignia ProLiant 1000 Reliability Configurability Manageability ProLiant 1000 Rack Mountable Storability Servicability Security
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -10-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Strategic Grid Present Strategic Impact of Technology High Factory ATM, Airline Strategic Bank Low Support Restaurant, Municipality, Hospital Turnover Bookstore, Insurance, Broker Strategic Grid Low High Future Strategic Impact of Technology Support Time Importance Turnover Factory Strategic US Office of Patents commissioner: “Everything that can be invented has been invented”, 1899 recommendation that his office be abolished. Window of Opportunity Time Importance GreatExpectations Disappointment Real Power
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -11-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Qualcomm 1999 annual Report p. 23 Mobile-Station-Modem Phone Chipsets Time/ Release Features 1st Generation MSM R&D begins 90 9291 94 95 96 97 98 9993 2nd Generation MSM Chipset Developed MSM1 3rd Generation MSM Used in QCP800 phone MSM2 4th Generation MSM Highly cost effective MSM2300 5th Generation MSM 200 hours standby Faster data rates<86kbps IS-95A/95B Compliant MSM3000 iMSM Family High Data Rate technology<2.4Mbps Internet; support3rd party OS/Apps MSM5000 2x voice capacity Faster data rates<153.6kbps 6th Generation MSM 50% Smaller; 300Hrs Sand by Mixed signal; USB data interface MSM3100
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -12-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Wave PLM Time/Release Features/ Function Points 88: DOS 4 Mar 93:MS-DOS 6 Disk Backup & Compression Windows CE 93 NT3.1: 32 bit 29K copies NT3.5: Faster, Stable SOHO NT3.51: Web Server No need for special SW NT4.0: Large Data Proc. 1997 update: Cluster 1.6M copies NT: Most Demanding Tasks User/Info Dir, Intelli-mirror 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 0093 Apr 92: Win 3.1: Screensaver, TrueType 95: TCP/IP 98: HTML editor 2000: Premium, Professional, Small Business 4.1 5
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -13-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Float-glass process substitution W.Europe
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  [email protected] Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -14-Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman Business Action: Supply/Demand Chasm Approximate Life Cycle of Products (years) DevelopmentCycle(years) 4 12 200 168 4 12 20 0 16 8 Financial Services- Financial Services- Silicon Foundries Silicon Foundries Retailing&EntertainmentRetailing&Entertainment Fashion& Textiles Fashion& Textiles Transportation Systems Transportation Systems Communications Systems Communications Systems TobaccoTobacco FoodsFoods Lodging Hotels Lodging Hotels MiningMining Forestry, Oil& Gas Reserves Forestry, Oil& Gas Reserves PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals Military Weapons Military Weapons SoftwareSoftware ElectronicsElectronics ComputersComputers PublishingPublishing Medical&DentalMedical&Dental AutomobileAutomobile Metal ProductsMetal Products PhotographicPhotographic Chemicals, Paper Chemicals, Paper BiotechnologyBiotechnology Typical Time Horizons by Industry, Mid-to-Late 1980s