Priori Data - App Market Trends & 2016 Outlook
Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes440 views
The document presents insights from Patrick Kane, founder and CEO of Priori Data, on app market trends and outlooks for 2016. It highlights key issues such as the supply-demand imbalance, broken discovery mechanisms, and market concentration that favor top publishers, making it challenging for newcomers. Although the app gold rush isn't over, the year 2016 is expected to bring significant changes in user acquisition strategies and platform dynamics.
Priori Data - App Market Trends & 2016 Outlook
- 1. APP MARKET TRENDS & 2016 OUTLOOK App Promotion Summit, Berlin Patrick Kane PRIORI DATA Founder & CEO @pdkane www.prioridata.com
- 2. Agenda 1. Priori Data Background 2. State of the (App) Union 3. 2016 Outlook
- 4. Me: Trying to Change the Status Quo in Mobile App Market Data Nationality: US, now camped in an Eastern American outpost (Berlin) Twittering: @pdkane & @prioridata Gamer?: Lots of hours. Lots of parent frustration. I now sneak in 30mins a day on mobile or build cities (Skylines) during sleepless nights Before going “Start-up”: I analyzed and invested in information companies, mostly in the healthcare space Talked to: hundreds of publishers over the past 2 years, plus, yes, just about as many VCs 4 Patrick Kane Founder / CEO Ex. PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
- 5. OUR MISSION Our mission is to crowdsource the world’s largest panel of mobile app data. We want to deliver reliable statistics on any app, publisher and market trend Confidential 5 WE ANALYZE APP STORES Founded June 2013 International team of 22 WIR SIND EIN BERLINER
- 6. PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND Us: Powerful App Store Intelligence at a Better Value 6 Public Data crawled from the app stores Proprietary Data shared by our partners Download and revenue estimates for all apps, publishers, and categories across 57 countries MARKET TRENDS COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE NEWCOMER DETECTION CUSTOMIZED WATCHLISTS
- 7. Over 10,000 Apps Have Joined Our Free Data Sharing Network 7 PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
- 8. 2. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
- 9. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION Mobile Is Only Working For The Top 1% 9 Supply / Demand Imbalance Broken Discovery Market Concentration The Problem in 3 Steps:
- 10. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION Increased App Supply & Flat App Demand = More Competition 10 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% Avg. Monthly Downloads Avg. # of Apps -1% +18 % Indexed Supply & Demand • Consumer demand has flatlined • 500 new apps and 100 new publishers enter the store every day! • Newcomers (and their apps) apps are as a rule better funded and more experienced Based on Apple App Store. Since Sep. 2014
- 11. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION Top Chart Turnover (& Discovery) Offer Only Fleeting Success 11 Average Length of Stay per New App 3% 7% 41% 49% 1% 3% 71% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% >2 weeks 1-2 weeks <1 week one day Average Free App Average Paid App • 50% of new free apps are in and out of the charts within 1 day, and 90% within 1 week. • Only 4% of new apps last more than 2 weeks in the charts. That’s 350 a month, globally. Based on Apple Top 200 Charts. „New“ designates first-time appearance in the top chart, not age of the app.
- 12. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION Apps Represent a “Winner Takes All” Market 12 Share of Market to Top Publishers • 100 companies command ~70% of store downloads and ~60% of store revenue • There are over 450k companies publishing apps today, Top 100 = 0.01% 72% 59% 9% 8% 5% 5% 14% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of Total Store Downloads % of Total Store Revenue Top 100 101-200 201-300 Everyone Else Based on Apple App Store in June 2015. Global Estimates. % of Downloads % of Revenue
- 13. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated? 13 Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally) Category Action Games Strategy Games Action Games RPG Games Sim. Games Puzzle Games Arcade Games Sim. Games Action Games RPG Games 10 out of 10 Games 2013 0 out of 10 Games 2014 Category Social Networking Social Networking Photo & Video Social Networking Finance Photo & Video Photo & Video Entertainment Lifestyle Music
- 14. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated? 14 0 out of 10 Games 2014 Category Social Networking Social Networking Photo & Video Social Networking Finance Photo & Video Photo & Video Entertainment Lifestyle Music ? 2015 Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally)
- 15. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated? 15 2 out of 10 Games 2015 App Category Social Networking Photo & Video Social Networking Social Networking Photo & Video Social Networking Adventure Games Education Health & Fitness Strategy Games • 50% exact overlap with 2014 • 60% are Apple, Google, and Facebook Published • Both gaming titles are franchises/classics • The two you don’t recognize are Chinese Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads (Globally)
- 16. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION What Others Say “With over 2MM apps across the various mobile app stores, discoverability is close to impossible. User acquisition strategies are just not enough anymore, and it’s been a while since burst campaigns were viable. When looking at all these parameters, one question comes to mind: has the app gold rush finished?” Michael Velkes, VP of Marketing at Plamee Games 16 Published on Mobile Dev Memo
- 17. 3. 2016 OUTLOOK
- 18. 2016 OUTLOOK So Has the App Gold Rush Finished? 18
- 19. 2016 OUTLOOK So Has the App Gold Rush Finished? 19 Doubtful. But 2016 will change the frame of the discussion in a major way
- 20. 20 Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps The Discussion Since 2008 2016 OUTLOOK
- 21. Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps 21 ^ and The Discussion in 2016 2016 OUTLOOK
- 22. 2016 OUTLOOK Fred Wilson’s Summary 22 “the mobile web is top of funnel, and mobile apps bottom of funnel” “The mobile web is the window of your store. Users window shop on your mobile website. Getting them to download and install and use your mobile app is like getting them to come into the store”. http://avc.com/2015/09/mobile-web-is-top-of-funnel-mobile-app-is-bottom-of-funnel/ - Fred Wilson
- 23. 2016 OUTLOOK The Optimal User Funnel For Marketers is a Mixture Of Web & App 23 “web search (discovery) + deep links (conversion) + rich apps (engagement) + push notifications (retention)” Patrick Kane
- 24. 24 So why does this notion of web vs. apps exist in the first place? Web and Apps are not Mutually Exclusive 2016 OUTLOOK
- 25. 2016 OUTLOOK The Dominant App Stores Have Different Worldviews 25 “this apps vs. browser argument is so charged partly because it’s a surrogate for Apple’s and Google’s competing visions for the mobile internet” Greg Sterling – Editor @Search Engine Land http://marketingland.com/morgan-stanley-no-apps-arent-winning-the-mobile-browser-is-144303
- 26. 2016 OUTLOOK 2016 Will See Big Changes to The Store Status Quo Impacting UA 26 iOS9 and Ad Blockers Google App Streaming
- 27. 2016 OUTLOOK Wrapping Up 27 • Supply/demand imbalance, broken discovery, and market concentration pose fundamental challenges to the vast majority of publishers • The “gold rush” is not over, but outperformers will look for synergies and consumer patterns that span across “web” and “apps” • 2016 is shaping up to be a year where the major platforms take firm stands on their view of mobile – it’s going to be a wild ride!
- 28. Patrick Kane Founder /CEO [email protected] Twitter @pdkane Email me directly for a copy of this presentation.
Editor's Notes
- #8: Includes public companies, venture backed startups, and indie developers.
- #10: Supply/demand imbalance – 500 new apps and 100 new developers a day. Supply is growing 5x faster than downloads. Discovery is broken – Store Top Charts still rule the day. But 90% of new apps are in/out within a week. Market concentration – this leads to massive market concentration, 300 developers earn 85% of downloads and 70% of all revenue. SMEs and Startups are failing in mobile. We see this. The App Stores see this.
- #11: Reference gartner report about waning downloads?
- #21: “mobile apps vs. mobile web” is great at generating headlines and producing neat, side-by-side graphs, but it really does very little in terms of explaining how mobile impacts consumers and how businesses can properly reach those consumers in the most effective way.
- #23: To sit at the top of a channel funnel (where the volume is) you need functioning discovery, and discovery in mobile apps (and app stores) as we have seen is broken. Regardless of how much ASO you do, you simply aren't going to replicate the quality, speed, usability, and relevance of an app store search that you are used to on the web. Conversely, Mobile web is not going to create the richness of experience that an app can give you in terms of speed, personalization, and ease of use.
- #24: The apps vs. mobile browser discussion is really about audience segmentation and user behavior patterns.
- #26: Google wants to sell ads on search, i.e. the web. Apple wants the best consumer software experience on their devices, i.e. apps (which can also be construed as anti-adverts if you consider iOS9 and add blockers!)